BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2016 2015: A year of plenty Spencer Dale, group chief economist bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats BP p.i.c.2016
Key global trends Energy demand in transition China s growth in energy demand slowing increased global focus on energy efficiency Technological advances driving energy supplies US shale revolution renewable energy BP 2015
Growth in GDP and energy Annual change, % 8% 6% Energy intensity GDP Energy Energy intensity 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Primary energy growth Annual change, % 6% 5% 4% 3% 10-year average 2015 2% 1% 0% -1% World OECD China Other
Primary energy growth Fuel increments Annual change, Mtoe 250 200 150 100 50 0-50 -100 10-year average 2014 2015 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables Total
Energy prices Index (Jan 2014 = 100) Prices by fuel 150 100 Coal Gas 50 Oil 0 янв.14 янв.15 янв.16
Oil and refining
Oil market in 2014 Demand Supply Annual change, Mb/d 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5 Global growth OPEC Importers Exporters Non-OPEC 10-year average 2014 2015 10-year average 2014 2015
Oil market in 2014 and 2015 Demand Supply Annual change, Mb/d 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5 Global growth OPEC Importers Exporters Non-OPEC 10-year average 2014 2015 10-year average 2014 2015
Oil market in 2014 and 2015 Demand Supply Annual change, Mb/d 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5 Global growth OPEC Importers Exporters Non-OPEC 10-year average 2014 2015 10-year average 2014 2015
Oil market in 2014 and 2015 Demand Supply Annual change, Mb/d 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5 Global growth OPEC Importers Exporters Non-OPEC 10-year average 2014 2015 10-year average 2014 2015
Oil inventories Mbbls 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2016 OECD commercial inventories 2015 2500 2400 2010-14 range 2010-14 average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: includes data from the International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 2016.
Oil price $/bbl 140 Dated Brent 120 100 80 60 Annual average 40 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: includes data from Platts
Past episodes of large oil price falls Cumulative change in real prices from initial year 50% 25% 1985-90 1997-2002 2008-13 2014-16 0% -25% -50% -75% 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years Note: Oil prices have been converted into 2015 dollars to show changes in prices adjusted for inflation.
Natural gas
Natural gas demand and supply Regional demand growth Annual change, % Annual change, % -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% Regional supply growth -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% World Middle East Africa S. & C. America North America Asia Pacific Europe & Eurasia of which EU 10-year average World Middle East Africa S. & C. America North America Asia Pacific Europe & Eurasia of which EU
US electricity sector Electricity generation by fuel Electricity generation cost by fuel GWh $/MWh 2500 2000 1500 1000 Coal Gas 70 60 50 40 30 Gas Coal 500 20 0 1985 1995 2005 2015 10 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: includes data from EIA, Pira, Platts
Natural gas prices $/mmbtu Spot LNG prices 20 15 10 5 0 UK Japan 2010 2012 2014 2016 YTD Source: includes data from BAFA, ICIS Heren Energy
Natural gas prices $/mmbtu European prices 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Dutch spot Oil-linked index Russian export proxy* 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 *Estimate derived from reported Average German Import Price and trade volumes.
Coal
Global coal market Annual change, % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Global coal demand growth Rest of world China World -4% 2000 2005 2010 2015
Non-fossil fuels
Speed of transition Shares of global primary energy 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Years from reaching 1% share Oil (1877) Gas (1899) Nuclear (1974) Hydro (1922) Renewables (2008) (projected) Note: - For sources of data pre-1965 see Economic development and the demand for energy by Ruehl et al, Energy Policy, 2012.
Speed of transition Shares of global primary energy 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Years from reaching 1% share Oil (1877) Gas (1899) Nuclear (1974) Hydro (1922) Renewables (2008) (projected) Note: - For sources of data pre-1965 see Economic development and the demand for energy by Ruehl et al, Energy Policy, 2012.
Carbon emissions
Factors driving slower growth of carbon emissions Annual change, % 1,5% Contributions to slowdown in 2015 growth vs trend GDP US 1,0% Energy intensity China 0,5% Fuel mix 0,0% 10-year average 2015 Other Note: these charts show, for each factor or geographic entity, the difference between its contribution to the growth of emissions in 2015 and its average contribution to emissions growth over the past decade.
Factors driving slower growth of carbon emissions Annual change, % 1,5% 1,0% Contributions to slowdown in 2015 growth vs trend US GDP China 0,5% 0,0% 10-year average Other 2015 Note: these charts show, for each factor or geographic entity, the difference between its contribution to the growth of emissions in 2015 and its average contribution to emissions growth over the past decade.
Carbon intensity Annual change, % 2% Change in carbon intensity of GDP 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Conclusion 2015 Another year of weak growth (structural and cyclical) Fuels: winners and losers (prices work) Carbon emissions stall Future Energy demand in transition Technological advances driving supply BP 2015
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2016 bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats BP p.i.c.2016