Direct Energy Business Monthly Webinar. Expressly for Channel Partners February 25, 2016

Transcription

1 Direct Energy Business Monthly Webinar Expressly for Channel Partners February 25, 2016

2 Webinar Agenda Tim Bigler, Sr. Market Strategist Commodity Market Update Beau Gjerdingen, Meteorologist Spring weather outlook and its impact to the energy markets Chris Kallahar, Sr. Director, Government & Regulatory Affairs Q&A-NY PSC Announcement All Question & Answers

3 To ask a question Use the question pane on your screen to submit your question. 3

4 Commodity Market Update Tim Bigler, Sr. Market Strategist

5 Gas/Power Themes NATURAL GAS Stable U.S. Gas Production? Basis Influences Will Demand Catch Up to Supply? POWER Lower Electricity Energy Costs Due to Lower Gas Prices/Efficiency Black Swan? Potential Coal Price Increases

6 $5.50 NYMEX Cal s At/Near All-Time Lows $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 MARCELLUS BREAK EVEN? NG 2017 NG 2018 NG 2019 NG 2020 NG 2021 $2.50 Bcf/M JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1/8/2014 2/8/2014 3/8/2014 4/8/2014 5/8/2014 6/8/2014 7/8/2014 8/8/2014 9/8/ /8/ /8/2014 Bloomberg Finance L.P.; FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY 12/8/2014 1/8/2015 2/8/2015 3/8/2015 4/8/2015 5/8/2015 6/8/2015 7/8/2015 8/8/2015 9/8/ /8/ /8/ /8/2015 1/8/2016 2/8/2016

7 $50.00 ERCOT Cal s At All-Time Lows $45.00 $40.00 $35.00 $30.00 ERCOT ATC 2017 ERCOT ATC 2018 ERCOT ATC 2019 $25.00 $ /18/2014 3/18/2014 4/18/2014 5/18/2014 6/18/2014 7/18/2014 8/18/2014 9/18/ /18/ /18/ /18/2014 1/18/2015 2/18/2015 3/18/2015 4/18/2015 Bcf/M JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 5/18/2015 6/18/2015 7/18/2015 8/18/2015 9/18/ /18/ /18/ /18/2015 1/18/2016 Bloomberg Finance L.P.; FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

8 Sub-$3.50 Could SLOW Marcellus Production Bcf/M JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Range Resources

9 UNHEDGED Dry/Wet/Associated Gas Production P E R C E N T * H E D G E D At Risk in Sub $2.50 NG & $40 WTI Market GREATER 2016 GAS PRODUCTION DECLINING HEDGES IMPACT NG DRY GAS NGL WET GAS CRUDE OIL ASSOCIATED GAS ESTIMATED NG AT RISK 2 4 BCF PER DAY? Bcf/M JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC LESSER

10 Northeast Pipeline Capacity Increases Production Sets Record NORTHEAST PRODUCTION RECORD ~23.1 BCF/D 02/11/2016 ~4 Y-o-Y NE Dry U.S. Dry Bentek Energy LLC; FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

11 PA Shale - Large Well Backlog Supports Future Production? AT WHAT PRICE? Bloomberg

12 Will Sub-$3.50 NG Price = Flat NG Production? EIA

13 Flat NG Production Forecast? WHY? All-time low drilling/production costs Higher production volumes per dollars spent NGL/Oil price uplift (Not currently, but ) Long term pipeline commitments Increasing demand Share price concerns

14 NG Basis Pipeline/LNG Projects Impact DOMINION ATLANTIC COAST PIPELINE 1,500 DTH/D, LATE 2018 Columbia;Dominion; Bentek Energy LLC

15 NG Basis Pipeline/LNG Projects Impact DOMINION ATLANTIC COAST PIPELINE 1,500 DTH/D, LATE 2018? COVE POINT LNG LATE 2017 Targeted Start Date Columbia;Dominion; Bentek Energy LLC

16 Will U.S. Demand Catch Supply? If Yes, When? SUPPLY? DEMAND

17 U.S. Power Sector Off-peak Demand Shifts Up U.S. Power Burn Bcf/day 2015 YTD +3.8 Bcf/day 10 5 Off-peak shift up implies higher Natural gas consumption ATC Bentek Energy LLC

18 U.S. to Mexico Pipeline Capacity Significant Expansions Proposed Mexican Exports Bcf/Day 12/29/2015 RECORD Bcf FEB 2016 MTD Y-o-Y +1.2 Bcf Bcf/M JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Bentek Energy LLC

19 Why Gas Basis is IMPORTANT 2016 Northeast Summer Delivered Gas Below Coal in DOM S/TCO/TETCO M3 NEGATIVE BASIS NYMEX Gas>Coal COAL Gas=Coal

20 Energy MWh Price Set by Natural Gas Example: Need to generate 100,000 MW Everyone gets paid $40 / MWh Fuel Options Natural Gas 13,000 MW Last Unit available can generate 5,000 MW Cost = $40 / MWh Coal 51,000 MW Cost = $30 / MWh Nuclear 36,000 MW Cost = $20 / MWh

21 New NG Power Plant Efficiency Lowers Electric Energy Prices Gas Plant Heat Rate Btu/kWh 12,000 10,000 8,000 Assumption: $2/MMBtu Gas Input U.S. GAS RECORD $24 U.S. OIL 28Y HIGH $20 $16 U.S. RECORD 1990 s XXXX

22 New NG Power Plant Efficiency Gas Plant Raises Coal to Gas Floor Heat Rate Btu/kWh 8,000 10,000 12,000 Assumption: Coal $24/MWh U.S. GAS RECORD U.S. OIL 28Y HIGH $2.00 $2.40 $3.00 U.S. RECORD 1990 s XXXX

23 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 New NG Power Plant Efficiency Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Raises Coal to Gas Floor Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 U.S. GAS RECORD U.S. OIL 28Y HIGH Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 -$5.00 U.S. -$10.00RECORD -$ $20.00 CSX Coal MMBtu TETM3Fixed Coal-M3 Bloomberg Finance L.P.; FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

24 $90.00 PJM Electric Pricing It s More Than ENERGY Costs PJM Market Perspective Wholesale Cost of Load Increases in Capacity Markets/RPM, Market Risk Premiums, Ancillary Services Costs, & Growing Renewable Energy Requirements $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $32 $31 $30 $33 $37 Capacity Load Following Ancillaries Risk Premiums Renewables $20.00 $10.00 $42 $45 $39 $34 $34 PPL Zone ATC Energy Price $ Energy Non-Energy Price Components ILLUSTRATIVE PRICES FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

25 ISO-NE Electric Pricing It s More Than ENERGY Costs ISO-NE Capacity Cost of a 50% Load Factor Customer - /KWh / / / / /2020 Rest of Pool NEMA SEMA/RI CT ILLUSTRATIVE PRICES FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

26 Aliso Canyon Storage Cavern Update Posted 02/19/16 on DEB Website Bcf/M JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Bloomberg New Energy Finance; FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

27 CAISO Power Prices Near New England in Lower Demand Periods Bcf/M JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC CAISO; FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

28 Gas/Power Summary PRODUCTION Double Digit Growth - How much longer? Economics Unhedged gas is unprofitable NG PRICING Commodity Stagnant gas production may imply higher $$$ Basis Producers moving gas to higher priced markets Budget Fixed or Managed Approach MW PRICING Gas/Electric Prices Highly correlated Electric costs More than ENERGY Budget Fixed or Managed Approach

29 To ask a question Use the question pane on your screen to submit your question. 29

30 Spring Weather Outlook Beau Gjerdingen, Meteorologist

31 Winter So Far (Temperatures) Tied With 2001/02 For Warmest On Record 31

32 32 Winter So Far (Precipitation)

33 Current/Forecast State of El Niño Weak Moderate Strong >2 Strong Moderate Weak Neutral Nina 33

34 34 Analogs For Spring Precipitation

35 35 Analogs for Spring Temperatures

36 36 A Look At Global Sea Surface Temperatures

37 Early Thoughts On Summer El Nino will dissipate, leaving neutral ENSO conditions for summer More active than normal hurricane season seems likely Other teleconnections (Sea Surface Temperatures, Soil Moisture) still can change much before Summer, too soon to use Market is generally bullish on summer heat based on a La Nina assumption (a bad assumption) No skill in summer weather forecasts at this range 37

38 To ask a question Use the question pane on your screen to submit your question. 38

39 Thank you for attending today s Webinar! Today s slide presentation can be found at: