Economic Update as of June 30, 2016

Transcription

1 MACRO Report: Review of Wyoming s Economy Economic Update as of June 30, The MACRO Report is a quarterly publication comprised of charts focusing on energy, employment, state revenues, and other indicators pertaining to the state of Wyoming. WYOMING MACRO Report

2 Summary: Outlook remains weak for Wyoming s economy. Employment Total nonfarm employment fell by 8,800 jobs ( 3.0%) in May compared to previous year; 13 consecutive months of year over year job losses; unemployment rate climbed to 5.6% in May, up from 4.2% in May. Energy June average for Opal natural gas price reached $2.30 per mcf while WTI oil rebounded to $48.69 per bbl.; April natural gas production was 4.3% behind last year while oil production lagged 14.1% and May year to date coal production had fallen by 32.6%; oil rig count was 2in May compared to 10 one year ago; oil & gas jobs in May declined by 3,400 in a year ago comparison. Revenues Final FY sales and use tax collections lagged last year by 20.9%; 11 out of the 12 industry sectors that were tracked recorded year over year losses; Campbell, Converse, and Natrona counties accounted for 67.4% of the losses. After 11 months of FY16, severance tax revenue trailed last year by 34.2%. Personal income, home price appreciation, building permits, and National Park visits Personal income for Q1 of saw a decline of 0.3% for the state compared to the previous quarter. Statewide, the housing market experienced weak home price appreciation and a drop off in single family units permitted. National Park visits surged ahead of last year s numbers by 9.9%. 2

3 Economic Activity: Energy Industry Slowdown has Spilled Over to Construction, Manufacturing, and Service Sectors Oversupply of natural gas and oil still an ongoing issue for producers in the state. Too soon to tell if improving natural gas and oil prices have aided producers. State faces another headwind with loss of coal jobs in the Powder River Basin. 3

4 Coincident Index: WY, CO, NE, & U.S. Year over Year Percent Change in Index Values 8.0 Through May 6.0 Percent Colorado U.S. Nebraska Wyoming Note: The coincident index for each state is comprised of four indicators of current economic activity including: 1. nonfarm employment 2. manufacturing hours worked 3. unemployment rate 4. and wages & salaries paid Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 4

5 Employment: Labor Market under Duress as Job Losses Continue Statewide employment fell by 8,800 jobs when compared to May. Education & health and retail trade sectors led job growth in the private sector in May. At the state level, jobless claims for all sectors through the end of June increased by 3,487 or 19.0% compared to a year ago. 5

6 Nonfarm Employment: Casper, Cheyenne, WY, & U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Through May Index: Jan06= Casper Cheyenne Wyoming U.S. Percent Past Past Peak* to Change 10 Years Year Present WY +2.0% 3.0% 5.8% U.S. +5.6% +1.7% +3.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Shaded area represents U.S. recession. *Refers to pre recession peak. 6

7 WY and U.S. Nonfarm Employment Through End of May ; Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Job Growth Percent Change Year over Year 1.7 Percent Wyoming U.S Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Change in Jobs (000) WY Nonfarm Job Change Year over Year Thousands of Jobs Jan16 Feb Mar Apr May 8.8 7

8 WY Employment Change: May vs. May Year over Year; Seasonally Adjusted # of Jobs % Change Mining & Logging (7%) Construction (8%) Manufacturing (3%) Wholesale Trade (3%) Retail Trade (11%) Transp. & Utilities (5%) Information (1%) Financial Activities (4%) Prof. & Bus. Services (7%) Education & Health (10%) Leisure & Hospitality (12%) Other Services (4%) Federal Govt. (3%) 4,500 1, ,200 1, , % 5.2% 2.0% 12.6% 8.9% 2.6% 5.4% 5.2% 1.6% 1.6% 2.2% 1.0% 1.4% State & Local Govt. (23%) % Note: Value in parentheses represents share of total jobs. Statewide Change: 8,800 Jobs or 3.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: The State & Local Government sector includes jobs affiliated with K 12 & higher education and public hospitals. 8

9 WY Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims All Sectors and Mining Sector Through June 7,500 Initial Claims All Sectors Monthly The TTU (+994) and construction (+759) sectors had the largest YTD YoY increases in filings through June. 1,500 Initial Claims Mining Monthly 5,000 1,000 2, # of Claims 500 Source: WY Dept. of Workforce Services Research & Planning Section Cumulative Change YTD: Jun vs. Jun +3, % # of Claims Cumulative Change YTD: Jun vs. Jun % 9

10 Energy: Natural Gas and Oil Prices Improve but Production Contracts Natural gas and oil prices have improved recently; the coal spot price has been declining since October. Natural gas, oil, and coal production have declined in compared to a year ago. Oil & gas jobs fell to 10,800 in May, the lowest count since April

11 Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Coal Prices $8 Opal Hub Prices ($ per MCF) $160 WTI Prices ($ per bbl.) $20 Powder River Coal ($ per Ton) $6 $120 $15 $4 June Average $2.30 $80 June Average $48.69 $10 $2 $40 $5 June Average $8.80 $ $ $ Source: Bloomberg Index: Jan2005=100 Relative Price History Opal Hub Price WTI Oil Price PRB Coal Price

12 WY Natural Gas, Crude Oil, and Coal Production 250,000 WY Nat Gas Withdrawals (MMCF Monthly) 8,000 7,000 WY Oil Production (Thousands of bbls. Monthly) Wyoming Coal Production (Millions of Tons Monthly) 200,000 6, ,000 5, , , , Cumulative Change YTD: Apr vs. Apr 4.3% Cumulative Change YTD: Apr vs. Apr 14.1% Cumulative Change YTD: May vs. May 32.6% Source: Energy Information Administration.

13 WY Oil & Gas Jobs and Rig Counts 100 ( Rigs) Oil & Gas Jobs Oil & Gas Rigs CBM Rigs (000s Jobs) Source: WY Oil and Gas Conservation Commission; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 13

14 State Revenues: Mining Slowdown Continued to Impact Counties and Industries in Wyoming The final collections for fiscal sales and use taxes were $168.6 million or 20.9% behind last year; of the twelve industries followed, only transportation & utilities recorded a year over year gain. With eleven months of collections, severance taxes declined by $272.6 million in fiscal as oil, natural gas, and coal producers pared down activities. 14

15 WY Statewide 4% Sales and Use Tax Collections $80 $70 $ Year High Low Range 5 Year Avg. ( ) FY Millions $60 $50 $40 $59.9 $64.7 $61.2 $58.0 $52.6 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun $51.9 $47.2 $45.5 $42.1 After 12 months, FY16 total collections finished the year $168.6 million ( 20.9%) behind fiscal. Campbell, Converse, and Natrona counties accounted for 67.4% of the decline. $43.7 $45.5 Source: WY Dept. of Revenue. Note: Includes both the state and local shares of the state wide 4% sales and use tax collections on a cash receipts basis. 15

16 WY Statewide 4% Sales and Use Tax Collections by Industry Change in Percent and Dollars (Millions) Final Fiscal vs. Fiscal Twelve Months of Collec ons Mining & Logging (14%) Construction (3%) Manufacturing (3%) Wholesale Trade (8%) Retail Trade (32%) Transport. & Utilities (6%) Information (2%) Financial Activities (5%) Prof. & Bus. Services (1%) Leisure & Hospitality (11%) Public Administration (10%) Educ., Health, & Other (4%) Note: Value in parentheses represents share of total collections. 50.0% % Change $ Change $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % 3.5% $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $7.5 Statewide Change: $168.6M or 20.9% $0.0 Source: WY Dept. of Revenue. Note: Includes both the state and local shares of the state wide 4% sales and use tax collections on a cash receipts basis. The Public Administration sector reflects taxes collected on the sale of new and used vehicles. 16

17 WY Statewide 4% Sales and Use Tax Collections by County Change in Percent and Dollars (Millions) Final Fiscal vs. Fiscal Twelve Months of Collec ons % Change $ Change 54.2% 1.2% 14.2% 31.5% 14.4% 20.9% 19.5% 7.4% 14.9% 20.6% 12.4% 28.2% 29.7% 7.6% 19.2% 2.1% 32.2% 13.1% 6.1% 20.3% 5.0% 4.8% 18.7% Albany (3%) Big Horn (1%) Campbell (16%) Carbon (3%) Converse (5%) Crook (1%) Fremont (4%) Goshen (1%) Hot Springs (1%) Johnson (1%) Laramie (13%) Lincoln (2%) Natrona (12%) Niobrara (1%) Park (4%) Platte (1%) Sheridan (4%) Sublette (5%) Sweetwater (10%) Teton (8%) Uinta (2%) Washakie (1%) Weston (1%) Source: WY Dept. of Revenue. Note: Includes both the state and local shares of the state wide 4% sales and use tax collections on a cash receipts basis. Value in parentheses represents share of total collections. $47.7 $34.9 $30.7 FY16 Final Collections: $639.1M FY15 Final Collections: $807.7M $0.3 $1.2 $2.7 $1.4 $6.5 $0.5 $0.7 $2.4 $11.6 $0.9 $2.4 $2.0 $0.5 $14.6 $9.4 $1.0 $1.4 $0.8 $2.3 $1.1 17

18 WY Statewide Severance Tax Collections $120 $100 After 11 months, FY16 year to date collections were $272.6 million (34.2%) behind last year s pace. 5 Year High Low Range 5 Year Avg. ( ) FY $80 Millions $60 $55.6 $57.2 $53.5 $48.1 $40 $53.3 $52.1 $50.1 $46.4 $34.0 $42.0 $32.3 $20 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: WY Dept. of Revenue. Note: Includes severance taxes collected on all minerals in Wyoming on a cash receipts basis. 18

19 Other Indicators for the State: Personal Income, House Price Appreciation, Building Permits, and National Park Visits Personal income for Q1 fell as earnings gains from health care were overwhelmed by mining and construction losses. Wyoming s modest house price appreciation in Q1 of lagged the rest of the Mountain Division. Statewide single family permits declined through the end of May in a year ago comparison. Tourism remained a bright spot for the state with national park visits outpacing. 19

20 Quarterly Personal Income: WY, Rocky Mtn. Region, & U.S. Percent Change from Preceding Quarter Wyoming Rocky Mountain U.S. Wyoming saw growth in 15 of the 24 BEA defined industries in Q1 of. Percent Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 The health care sector earnings had the largest impact on growth in Q1 of with an increase of $25 million over Q4. Mining earnings had the largest decline, $238 million. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 20

21 House Price Appreciation Purchase Only Mortgages: WY, Mountain Division, & U.S. % Change from Year Ago Through Quarter 1 of Wyoming Mountain Division U.S Q1 vs. Q1 1 Yr. Rate Rank Nevada +9.4% 4 Colorado +9.0% 5 Idaho +7.9% 6 Arizona +7.4% 8 Utah +7.0% 11 Montana +4.2% 28 New Mexico +2.9% 41 Wyoming +1.7% 45 Mtn Division +7.2% U.S. +5.7% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) estimates using FHFA s seasonally adjusted, purchase only house price index. Note: For the Period Ended March 31,. 21

22 House Price Appreciation Purchase and Refinance Mortgages: WY, Casper, & Cheyenne Wyoming Casper Cheyenne % Change from Year Ago Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 0.9 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) estimates using FHFA s not seasonally adjusted, all transactions house price index, that includes purchase and refinance mortgages. Note: For the Period Ended March 31,. 22

23 Residential Building Permits Units Statewide: Year to Date through May Statewide Units Permitted The number of total housing units permitted through the end of May decreased by 9.2% compared to. Single family units declined by 11.0%. Multifamily units rose by 6 during the same period compared to Total Single Family Multifamily Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 23

24 Residential Building Permits Units for Casper and Cheyenne: Year to Date through May Total Single Family Multifamily Casper Units Permitted Cheyenne Units Permitted The number of total housing units permitted for Casper through the end of May decreased by 57.5% compared to. Total units permitted for Cheyenne over the same time increased by 54.1%. Casper saw a decline through the end of May of single family units while Cheyenne reported strong growth compared to. 37 Total Single Family Multifamily Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 24

25 National Park Recreation Visits to WY Year to Date: June vs. June National Park Recreation Visits YTD YTD June June Difference Bighorn Canyon NRA 46,502 46, % Devils Tower NM 146, ,651 19, % Fort Laramie NHS 21,308 22, % Fossil Butte NM 6,835 7, % Grand Teton NP 1,016,095 1,110,693 94, % John D. Rockefeller, Jr. MEM PKWY 385, ,848 42, % Yellowstone NP WY Entrances 636, ,715 65, % Wyoming Total 2,258,994 2,481, , % Source: National Park Service Public Use Statistics Office. 25

26 How To Find Us Economic Analysis Division Department of Administration & Information State of Wyoming 2800 Central Avenue Cheyenne, WY or ai Visit our website at NPS turns 100 on August 25, Contact: Jim Robinson Principal Economist