Population Cartogram: size of countries is based on population instead of land area. Which countries are largest in terms of population?

Population Cartogram: size of countries is based on population instead of land area. Which countries are largest in terms of population?

Population Concentrations

Wet lands Dry lands Cold Lands High Lands People do not cluster in harsh environments.

East Asia (China, Korea, Japan) South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia) Europe (including western Russia) 2/3 of thee world s people live in these four regions Europe is mostly urban, while the other major concentrations are still rural

Near an ocean In a river valley Fertile soil Temperate climate Large cities often grow up at river mouths on the coast transportation!

Three common ways to measure Arithmetic Physiological Agricultural Example: United States

United States 300 million people = 80 persons per 3.7 million square miles square mile Bangladesh = 2700 persons per square mile India = 900 persons per square mile Canada = 8 persons per square mile Australia = 3 persons per square mile

Number of people per unit of arable land (productive land) High physiological density causes greater pressure on the land to produce enough food United States = 445 persons per square mile Egypt = 6682 persons per square mile Much of Egypt s land is not suitable for agriculture Arithmetic Density = 190 persons per square mile

Helps account for economic differences MDCs low agricultural density 2% of population in U.S. work in agriculture Efficient, productive agriculture Allows much of population to live and work in cities Analyze physiological and agricultural densities together United States = 1 farmer per sq km land Egypt = 826 farmers per sq km land

Natural Increase Rate (NIR) Percentage of annual population growth Births minus deaths, not including migration Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Number of annual births per 1000 people Crude Death Rate (CDR) Number of annual deaths per 1000 people

1.2 % now each year 1.2% increase of global population 80 million new people in the world annually Highest global NIR 2.2% in 1963 Virtually 100% of natural increase is now in LDCs Declining in many MDCs

Early 21 st century NIR of 1.2 results in 54 years to double By 2100 global population would be 24 billion at that rate of increase If NIR immediately declines to 1.0, population will be 15 billion in 2100 Larger base population now, so small changes in NIR make large changes in doubling time

Number of live births per 1000 people Highest CBRs in sub-saharan Africa Above 40 Lowest CBRs in Europe Below 10 Relates to Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Average number of children per woman over her lifetime U.S. = 2.1 Italy = 1.3 Nigeria = 6.0 Zero Population Growth (ZPG) 2.0 children per woman People only reproduce themselves Future U.S. growth will be mainly by immigration!

Later age of marriage 26 vs. 16 Later age of first birth 28 vs. 17 Higher education Women s status Education and literacy Access to health care and contraception Work outside the home = autonomy = choice Old age pensions and social security Urbanization Modern medicine and contraception

Number of annual deaths per 1000 people Varies with development of country due to life expectancy High percent of elderly people will have higher CDR But also high of infant mortality in least developed countries causes high CDR

Age-Sex Pyramids Cohorts Gender balance Shape and demographic statistics Dependency Ratio High population under 15 LDCs Need education and new jobs Soon marry and have children High population over 64 MDCs Baby Boomers: The Graying of America

Thomas Malthus prediction that food supply will set limits on population Why Malthus was wrong Neo-Malthusians vs. Cornucopians

Developed Countries today Stage 1 High births, high deaths Stage 2 High births, declining deaths Stage 3 Declining births, low deaths Stage 4 (completed) Low births, low deaths Developing Countries today Stage 2 Least developed High births, declining deaths Reason for high growth rate Stage 3 More developed Birth rate declining How long will it take?

Stage 1 no countries in this stage today Stage 2 - the least developed countries, most people live in rural villages, pre-industrial, high percentage of young people Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt Mostly in Africa and Middle East, Moslem countries Stage 3 - countries moving towards development and urbanization, birth rates have begun to decline Mexico, Brazil, most of Latin America, India Stage 4 demographic transition is completed, urban population, high level of education and literacy, high women s status, ageing population United States, Japan, Western Europe, Russia

Population planning programs Women s status Education Access to health care Countries in rapid birth rate decline Countries not yet in decline

Developed Country (MDC) Developing Country (LDC)

Neo-Malthusians: Eventually the population of the earth will exceed its capacity to produce food resulting in mass starvation and a decline in population. Cornucopians: The earth can sustain many more people than predicted by current demographic models. Shortages of food are the result of inequities and politics distribution,not supply, is the problem.