New South Wales State and Regional Population Projections Release TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE

Transcription

1 New South Wales State and Regional Population Projections Release TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE

2 THE TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE (TPDC) The TPDC is located in the NSW Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. The objective of the TPDC is to enhance Government decision-making via the provision of high quality and timely information on demographic and travel issues and trends in NSW. The TPDC is required to meet Government s and community s needs for population and transport data and provide a modelling capacity for the evaluation of strategic planning, policy and infrastructure initiatives. The main areas of work of the TPDC are: Population projections for NSW and regions Population projections at local government area for NSW Household Travel Survey (1981, 1991, continuous since 1997) Commercial Transport Study (1996, 22) Journey to Work (JTW) data (1981, 1991, 1996, 21) Travel Zone land use (population and employment) projections Strategic travel demand forecasts using the Sydney Strategic Travel Model (STM) TPDC Level 5, Henry Deane Building 2 Lee St Sydney NSW 2 GPO Box 3927 Sydney NSW 21 Telephone: (2) Fax: (2) [email protected] 24 Crown Copyright Subject to copyright. All rights are reserved. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied by any process or any means, electronically or otherwise, without written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer While all care is taken in producing and publishing this work, no responsibility is taken or warranty made with respect to the accuracy of any information, data or representation. The authors (including copyright owners) and publishers expressly disclaim all liability in respect of anything done or omitted to be done and the consequences upon reliance of the contents of this publication. NSW Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources Transport and Population Data Centre, 24 ISBN Report 24/1 May 24 i I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

3 New South Wales State and Regional Population Projections Release Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources Transport and Population Data Centre Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I ii

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5 Table of Contents Executive Summary Introduction Projections 1. New South Wales Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region Newcastle Wollongong Hunter Balance Illawarra Balance Richmond-Tweed Mid-North Coast Northern North Western Central West South Eastern Murrumbidgee Murray Far West Assumptions Methodology and Data Sources Sensitivity Analysis Explanatory Notes Glossary Appendices A. Summary of Results B. Population of NSW Regions 231 and Population Change C. Local Government Areas in NSW by SD/SSD D. Population Projections Group Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I iv

6 Executive Summary The Transport and Population Data Centre (TPDC) in the Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources (DIPNR) is responsible for the production of official population projections on behalf of the NSW Government. The projections in this publication have been produced by the TPDC under the auspices of the NSW Population Projections Group (PPG). The projections use current and historical input data that are applied to the TPDC s multi-regional cohort component model, to produce population projections by age and sex for NSW and its regions. The projected populations are based on a series of assumptions that accord with past trends, current patterns and demographic judgement as to future patterns. These patterns differ between the regions, depending on each unique profile. At the State level, it is assumed that: Fertility will drop from 1.79 children per woman in 2-1 to 1.66 children per woman by 21-11, then remain constant; Life expectancy for males will increase from 77.3 years to 88. years between 22 and 251. Life expectancy for females will increase from 82.7 years to 91.3 years in the same period; Overseas migration will be held constant at 42, from 25-6; and Interstate migration will drop from -24,4 to -17,9 between 21 and 251. The projected population of NSW in 251, based on these assumptions, is 9.5 million, representing growth of 2.5 million people over 21. This publication presents projections for NSW, Sydney and the Greater Metropolitan Region to 251, and projections for other regions in NSW to 231. This summary examines the population trends in all regions of NSW from 21 to 231. The growth of 1.7 million people in NSW to 231 is not evenly distributed throughout NSW: The Super-region Coastal NSW comprises Hunter Balance, Illawarra Balance, Richmond-Tweed, Mid-North Coast and South Eastern regions. Coastal NSW is expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of NSW. Most of this growth is expected in the older age groups as retirees migrate from Sydney and Inland NSW. The median age is expected to increase from just over 4 years to over 5 years in Coastal NSW between 21 and 231. Sydney will continue to grow and is expected to reach 5 million by 222. The median age of Sydney s population, currently 34.9 years, is projected to be the lowest for any region by 231, at 39.9 years. This is largely due to the young overseas migrant population that is attracted to the city. The Super-region Inland NSW comprises the regions Northern, North Western, Central West, Murrumbidgee and Murray. Parts of Inland NSW are expected to have populations in decline over the first ten years of the projections period. Far West, with the smallest population, is the only region in NSW projected to decline over the 3 year projections period. 1 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

7 Regional comparison The regions of NSW can be classified into five distinct super-regions in terms of population size and demographic attributes: Sydney, as the capital city, is markedly different in its characteristics compared with Regional NSW. It will continue to dominate in its share of the NSW population. In 21 Sydney s population comprised 62.8 per cent of the NSW population. By 231 this share will have increased to 64.6 per cent. While not the fastest growing region in NSW, by virtue of its size, Sydney will comprise the major share of growth in NSW by 231, accounting for over 7 per cent of all growth. Newcastle and Wollongong, the Other Major Urban Centres, have similar demographic attributes, but are different to Sydney. While they will continue to grow, their combined share of population will decline slightly from 11.6 per cent in 21 to 11.1 per cent in 231. Coastal NSW is projected to change the most of any of the super-regions over the 3 years It will have the greatest increase in population, increasing from 13.9 per cent of the NSW population in 21 to 14.7 per cent in 231. Within Coastal NSW Mid-North Coast will have the largest population increase, followed by Richmond-Tweed and South Eastern. The population is projected to increase in Inland NSW, although some areas are expected to decline over the first 1 years. This results in the Inland NSW share of the NSW population decreasing from 11.3 per cent in 21 to 9.4 per cent in 231. Far West, with the smallest population of any region in NSW, is the only region expected to continue to lose population. While most of NSW is growing, average annual growth is expected to slow. In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for NSW was 1.1 per cent. In the 2 years to 221 the average annual growth rate for NSW is expected to be.8 per cent. Share of Population Growth, NSW Super-regions, Other Major Urban NSW 9.% Coastal NSW 17.6% Sydney 71.7% Inland NSW & Far West 1.7% Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 2

8 Projected Population, NSW Super-Regions, ,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, Number 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Growth Year ending 3 June Sydney (SD) Other Major Urban Centres Coastal NSW Inland NSW & Far West Other than Far West, all other regions of NSW are projected to grow over the projections period. However, the rate at which each region s population grows is not consistent and is projected to diminish over time. This is due to the magnitude of change in fertility, mortality and migration and the size of the population. The larger a population, the greater the increments needed to sustain this growth. The regions within Coastal NSW are projected to have the greatest growth between 21 and 231. Illawarra Balance is projected to have the greatest growth of any region in NSW over the projections period (45 per cent). Over the next 2 years, the average annual rate of growth of Coastal NSW is expected to be 1. per cent. This rate has slowed markedly compared with an average rate of growth of 2.2 per cent for the region over the period. Sydney is expected to grow by 29.5 per cent over the next 3 years. In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Sydney was 1.2 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Sydney is expected to slow over the next 2 years, to.9 per cent. The Other Major Urban Centres of Wollongong and Newcastle are projected to grow by 21.8 per cent and 18.9 per cent respectively between 21 and 231. In terms of average annual growth, Wollongong and Newcastle had grown at an average of.8 per cent per year between 1981 and 21. In the 2 years, 21 to 221, average annual growth is expected to slow to.7 per cent. Inland NSW will grow between 21 and 231 but at lesser rate than Coastal NSW, Sydney and Other Major Urban Centres. Regions such as Northern and North Western are expected to experience population decline in the first ten years of the projections period, but then grow in the remainder of the period. Murray (8.5 per cent) is projected to have the largest growth within Inland NSW, while Northern is expected to grow the least (.5 per cent) over the 3 year period. The average annual rate of growth of Inland NSW between 1981 and 21 was.3 per cent. The projected annual average growth rate for Inland NSW between 21 and 221 is.13 per cent. 3 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

9 Far West is the only region in NSW to experience negative growth between 21 and 231. Far West s population will decline by 27.7 per cent in this period. This projected decline is a continuation of a 4 year downward trend. Since 1961, Far West region has been losing people to other parts of Australia. Age structure The population of NSW is projected to age in the 3 year projections period commencing 21. The proportion of the population aged less than 15 years is expected to be less in all regions by 231, while the proportion aged 65 years or more is expected to increase in all regions. The age distributions are markedly different for each of the five regions, reflecting the differences in fertility, mortality and migration. All regions, except Sydney, are projected to have a median age of 4 years and over in 231, compared with only three regions in 21. While Coastal NSW is projected to have the highest overall population growth rates, much of the growth will be due to in-migration in the older age groups. The population aged 65 years or more is projected to more than double between 21 and 231. Age and Sex Distribution, Coastal NSW, 21 and Age (years) , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, Male Female The Mid-North Coast is expected to have the highest proportion of the population aged 65 years or more in 231 (35 per cent). The other regions in Coastal NSW also have high proportions aged 65 years or above in 231, all above 3 per cent of their respective populations as a whole. While the population in the older age groups is projected to increase in Coastal NSW, the loss of young adults to other parts of Australia is projected to continue. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 4

10 Age and Sex Distribution, Inland NSW, 21 and Age (years) ,5 6, 4,5 3, 1,5 1,5 3, 4,5 6, 7,5 Male Female Inland NSW is expected to have the largest proportion of the population aged less than 15 years. While the population in this age group will have declined compared with 21, they will comprise 17 per cent of the population of Inland NSW in 231. Sydney is projected to have the youngest age structure by 231. While the population aged less than 15 years in Sydney is expected to decline at a lesser rate than elsewhere in NSW, it will also have the lowest proportion aged 65 years and over. Unlike other regions, Sydney is projected to increase its population in all age groups. Age and Sex Distribution, Sydney, 21 and Age (years) , 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

11 The age structure of the population of the Other Major Urban Centres of Wollongong and Newcastle is a little different. The Newcastle population tends to have an older age structure than the Wollongong population, and is projected to age at a faster rate than Wollongong (median age in 231 of 47.2 years). Wollongong will continue to have a younger age structure compared with other regions in NSW, having the third lowest median age (44.1 years) in 231. Age and Sex Distribution, Other Major Urban Centres of NSW, 21 and Age (years) Components of change 7,5 6, 4,5 3, 1,5 1,5 3, 4,5 6, 7,5 Male Growth in each region is dependent on the magnitude of change in each of the components of the population, births, deaths and migration. There are distinct differences in the way these components combine to influence population growth in each of the regions. Sydney is one of five regions that are projected to have more births than deaths over the 3 year period. It is anticipated that Sydney will grow by 869, due to natural increase over the 3 years to 231. Sydney is also the predominant recipient of overseas migrants in NSW. However, this is somewhat balanced by the fact that more people tend to leave Sydney for other NSW regions and interstate, than move into Sydney from elsewhere in Australia. The components of growth for Wollongong and Newcastle are quite different. Wollongong is projected to have more births than deaths over the period, while Newcastle is projected to have more deaths than births from It is expected that both regions will attract a similar number of overseas migrants each year (about 1,1 from 25-6). The internal migration profiles of each region are different. Newcastle is expected to gain anywhere between 6 and 1,7 migrants per year over the projections period. In contrast, Wollongong is expected to have no growth attributed to internal migration. In all regions of Coastal NSW the number of deaths will eventually exceed the number of births, a consequence of an increase in the size of the population in the older age groups. This phenomenon is expected to occur mid-way through the projections period in this region. Migration from other parts of Australia contributes more to population growth in the regions of Coastal NSW than overseas migration. Net internal migration is projected to increase for all regions within Coastal NSW over the period. While all regions in Coastal NSW gain people from other parts of Australia, the gain is mostly in the older age groups. The current loss of young adults from Coastal NSW to other regions is expected to continue. Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 6

12 In Inland NSW the impact of natural change is not as significant in the projections period as in Coastal NSW. In all regions of Inland NSW the number of births is expected to decline, while the number of deaths is projected to increase between 21 and 231. Deaths will exceed births in Central West (by 227) and Murray (by 224). Inland NSW is expected to attract only small numbers of overseas migrants each year. All regions of Inland NSW are expected to lose people to other parts of Australia, but the loss is expected to reduce over the projections period. For Central West and Murray, it is projected that there will be a net gain from internal migration after 215. Far West is the first region in NSW projected to have an excess of deaths over births, occurring from 25. It is not expected that Far West will attract many overseas migrants over the projections period (fewer than 2 people per annum). Far West will also continue to lose people to other parts of Australia, although this loss will diminish over the 3 year projections period. 7 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

13 Introduction Population projections are an essential input to the strategic infrastructure and service planning undertaken by government and the private sector. Projections are also used by a wide variety of other organisations across the State. DIPNR (Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources) and its predecessors have produced State and regional population projections on behalf of the NSW State Government for over 3 years. This current set of projections has been produced in consultation with the NSW Population Projections Group (PPG). The population projections in this report replace those for the period 1996 to 226 published by the Department of Urban Affairs and Planning in 1999 in Population Projections for NSW (preliminary). The projections have been produced using a multi-regional cohort component model. This model projects births, deaths, internal migration and overseas migration by single year of age, separately for males and females, for each region of the State. The population in a given year is the population in the previous year plus natural change (births minus deaths), net overseas migration (arrivals minus departures) and net internal migration (interstate and intrastate arrivals minus interstate and intrastate departures). The Methodology Section provides more information on the model. Projections have been produced for NSW, and the regions of Sydney, the Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR), Hunter (excluding Newcastle), Illawarra (excluding Wollongong), Richmond-Tweed, Mid-North Coast, Northern, North Western, Central West, South Eastern, Murrumbidgee, Murray, and Far West. A full description of the geography and the location of the regions can be found in Appendices B and C. The populations of NSW, Sydney and the GMR are projected for a 5 year period from 21 to 251. The populations of the other regions are projected for 3 years from 21 to 231. It is known that overseas migration has a large impact on Sydney s growth, and that this component fluctuates greatly over time. In order to account for the difficulties in projecting future levels of overseas migration accurately, three series of projections have been published for NSW, Sydney and the GMR. These are based upon high, medium and low assumptions of overseas migration. The high series assumes a net annual overseas migration to Australia of 125, from 25-6, the medium series 1, and the low series 7,. Population projections for other regions of NSW have been published based on the medium series assumptions as overseas migration has much less impact on regional populations outside Sydney. A number of other projections have been produced by DIPNR but not published in this report. Different assumptions have been made in order to show the effect on the results of a high, medium and low assumption for each component. The population projections published in this report are not predictions, forecasts or targets. Populations are projected using a set of assumptions. These assumptions have been developed using demographic techniques to assess change in different components of the population. Past trends and current patterns are analysed, and some judgement is used as to likely future demographic events. Changes in social policy, behaviour, or economics can have a significant effect on the direction of population change in the future. Consequently, it is not certain that these assumptions will hold for the projections period. For this reason DIPNR intends to update these population projections regularly, taking into account the latest available data. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 8

14 1. New South Wales Highlights In 21 the population of NSW was 6.57 million. In 251 the projected population of NSW will be between 8.4 million and 9.6 million. NSW is projected to reach 7 million by the end of 28 and 8 million by the beginning of 226. Between 21 and 211 NSW is projected to grow by more than half a million people (adding the equivalent of more than the population of Newcastle). NSW is growing due to overseas migration and natural increase (more births than deaths) but is losing people due to internal migration to other States in Australia. Population change over time The population of New South Wales (NSW) is projected to grow from 6.57 million in 21 to 9.5 million in 251 (under the medium series), an increase of 2.5 million or 37.7 per cent over 5 years. The population growth of NSW is projected to slow, compared with growth in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, NSW grew by some 1.34 million people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 1.16 million people to 7.73 million. Three projections series have been produced for NSW. Based on the low and high series assumptions, NSW could grow between 1.8 million and 3. million over the 5 years to 251. Figure 1.1 Actual and Projected Population, NSW, Number 1,, 9,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Year ending 3 June Low Medium High In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for NSW was 1.1 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged 1.2 per cent. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be.9 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for NSW is expected to slow over the next 5 years. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to slow to.4 per cent. 9 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

15 Table 1.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, NSW, Projected population Average annual growth rate a Year ending Low series Medium series High series Low series Medium series High series 3 June Number Per cent 21 6,575,2 6,575,2 6,575,2 26 6,84,1 6,868,9 6,889, ,68,5 7,164,7 7,241, ,283,3 7,45,4 7,585, ,494,8 7,734,9 7,931, ,698,6 8,12,6 8,27, ,883,9 8,271,9 8,591, ,41,5 8,53,9 8,885, ,169,8 8,76,9 9,15, ,275,3 8,887,5 9,393, ,366,1 9,53,2 9,622, a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the overall NSW population is projected to grow, this is not reflected in all age groups. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 4.5 per cent by 221. After 221, the population aged less than 15 years is projected to grow by 3.9 per cent to total 1.33 million by 251. The number of people in the working age groups (15 to 64 years) will increase over the next 5 years, although making up a smaller proportion of the total population (59 per cent in 251 compared with 67 per cent in 21). The population of NSW will continue to age. By 251, the median age will have increased to 45.5 years. By 217, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 251, the population aged 65 years and over will have almost trebled to 2.36 million to comprise over one-quarter of the NSW population. Figure 1.2 Age and Sex Distribution, NSW, 21 and Age (years) , 45, 3, 15, 15, 3, 45, 6, Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 1

16 Table 1.2 Key Statistics Medium Series, NSW, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change NSW is projected to gain people through natural increase (more births than deaths) throughout the projections period. At the beginning of the projections period the contribution to population growth made by natural increase is almost the same as the contribution from net overseas migration. By the end of the projections period the level of natural increase will have decreased. The number of births in NSW is projected to remain fairly stable over the projected period at around 8, each year. The number of deaths is projected to increase from 46, to 78, per year over the 5 year projections period, due to the ageing population, even though it is anticipated that people will live longer. Net migration also impacts on the size of the NSW population. It is expected that NSW will continue to attract the largest proportion of overseas migrants to Australia. Net overseas migration is projected to be 42, per annum after NSW is expected to continue to have a net loss of people interstate, based on current trends. Currently the largest interstate migration flow from NSW is to Queensland. It is assumed the loss to other States and territories will range between 16, and 18, from The figures for net internal migration for NSW for the 21-2 and 22-3 years are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 1.3 Components of Change, NSW, 21-2 to , 8, Annual Demographic Events 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration 11 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

17 2. Sydney Highlights In 21 the population of Sydney was 4.13 million. By 251, it is projected that Sydney s population will be between 5.4 million and 6.4 million people. The population is expected to reach 5 million in 222. Sydney has the lowest current and projected fertility of any region in NSW. Sydney is one of five regions in NSW which maintains more births than deaths between 21 and 231. Population change over time The population of Sydney is projected to grow from 4.13 million in 21 to 5.93 million in 251, an increase of 1.8 million or 44 per cent over 5 years. Sydney s population increase over the next 2 years is projected to be similar to growth in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Sydney grew by about 85, people. Between 21 and 221, the population is expected to grow by 84, people to 4.97 million. Three projections series have been produced for Sydney. Based on the low and high series assumptions, Sydney could grow to anywhere between 5.43 million and 6.35 million over the 5 years to 251. Figure 2.1 Actual and Projected Population, Sydney, ,, 6,, Number 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Year ending 3 June Low Medium High In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Sydney was 1.2 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth also averaged 1.2 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Sydney is expected to slow over the next 5 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be 1. per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to.4 per cent. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 12

18 Table 2.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Sydney, Projected population Average annual growth rate a Year ending Low series Medium series High series Low series Medium series High series 3 June Number Per cent 21 4,128,3 4,128,3 4,128,3 26 4,31,5 4,335,3 4,353, ,473,7 4,554,2 4,618, ,625,7 4,762,2 4,873, ,773,2 4,965,4 5,122, ,914,6 5,161,5 5,364, ,44,8 5,345,3 5,592, ,16,1 5,513,2 5,84, ,26, 5,665,1 5,999, ,347,6 5,84,1 6,181, ,426,4 5,933,4 6,353, a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure As Sydney s population is projected to grow, the age distribution of the population is expected to change. By 251, the population aged less than 15 years is expected to grow by 1 per cent to 899,. However, it will make up a smaller proportion of the total population (15 per cent) in 251 than in 21 (2 per cent). The population in the working age groups (15 to 64 years) will increase by one-third over the next 5 years. Despite the growth, this group will make up a smaller proportion of the total population in 251 (63 per cent) than in 21 (68 per cent). Sydney s population will continue to age. The median age will increase 7.3 years over the 5 year period to 42.2 years, and will be younger than the State as a whole (45.5 years). By 227, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 251, the number of people in the older age groups (65 years and over) will have more than doubled to account for one in five Sydneysiders. Figure 2.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Sydney, 21 and Age (years) , 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

19 Table 2.2 Key Statistics Medium Series, Sydney, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change Sydney s population is growing naturally as more births than deaths are expected over the projections period. The number of births in Sydney is projected to increase slightly over the projected period to just over 6, per year. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, the number of deaths is projected to increase significantly after 225 due to the ageing population. By 251, it is expected that deaths will number more than 4, per year. Migration also impacts on the size of Sydney s population. It is expected that Sydney will continue to attract the major share of overseas migrants to NSW. Sydney is projected to have an annual net overseas migration component of 36,7. It is expected that Sydney will continue to have a net loss of people to other regions in NSW and interstate, based on current trends. Sydney currently loses large numbers of people to Queensland, the Illawarra (SD), Hunter (SD) and Mid-North Coast regions. This loss will increase over time from 19,8 in 25-6 to 33, in The internal migration figures for Sydney for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 2.3 Components of Change, Sydney, 21-2 to , 8, Annual Demographic Events 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 14

20 3. Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) Highlights In 21 the population of the GMR was 4.9 million. By 251, the population is projected to reach anywhere between 6.3 million and 7.4 million people. Sydney s population comprises over 8 per cent of the GMR population throughout the 5 year projections period. While the GMR population profile is influenced by Sydney, the GMR has a higher proportion of people aged 65 years or more. Geography The Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) includes the regions of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong. Sydney comprised the major share of the GMR population in 21 (84 per cent). By 251, Sydney will have increased its share of the GMR population to 86 per cent. See Appendix C for regional definitions. Population change over time The population of the GMR is projected to grow from 4.9 million in 21 to 6.9 million in 251, an increase of 2 million or 41 per cent over 5 years. In the next 2 years the GMR s population is projected to grow by about the same amount as in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, the GMR grew by about 98, people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 94, to 5.8 million people. Three projections series have been produced for the GMR (Figure 3.1). Based on the low and high series assumptions, the GMR could grow to between 6.3 million and 7.4 million over the 5 years to 251. In terms of its share, the GMR could account for anywhere between 75.8 per cent (based on low series populations) and 76.6 per cent (based on high series populations) of the NSW population. Figure 3.1 Actual and Projected Population, GMR, ,, 7,, 6,, Number 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Year ending 3 June Low Medium High In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for the GMR was 1.1 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for the GMR is expected to slow over the next 5 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be 1. per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to slow to.4 per cent. 15 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

21 Table 3.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, GMR, Projected population Average annual growth rate a Year ending Low series Medium series High series Low series Medium series High series 3 June Number Per cent 21 4,89,4 4,89,4 4,89,4 26 5,11,7 5,128,1 5,146, ,288,2 5,374,3 5,442, ,46,3 5,67,3 5,726, ,626,7 5,834,7 6,4, ,785,7 6,54,3 6,275, ,931,1 6,259,6 6,53, ,57,9 6,445,6 6,765, ,165,3 6,611,8 6,98, ,257,1 6,762, 7,179, ,337,9 6,9,8 7,367, a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the population of the GMR is projected to increase, growth will not be equally spread across all age groups. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to increase by 6 per cent over the next 5 years. However, it will decline slightly before increasing to 1.3 million by 251. Despite this overall growth, these young people will make up a smaller proportion of the population in 251 (15 per cent) than at present (2 per cent). The population of the GMR will continue to age. By 223, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 251, those aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled to 1.6 million and will make up 23 per cent of the total population (compared with 26 per cent of the NSW population). While the working age population (aged 15 to 64 years) is expected to grow by 29 per cent by 251, it is expected to make up a smaller proportion of the total population. This is largely due to the substantial increase in the number of people at older ages. Figure 3.2 Age and Sex Distribution, GMR, 21 and Age (years) , 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 16

22 Table 3.2 Key Statistics Medium Series, GMR, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change The GMR is growing naturally as there are more births than deaths over the projections period. The number of births in the GMR is projected to remain fairly stable over the projected period, averaging 67, per year. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, the number of deaths is projected to increase from 32,5 to 51,3 over the 5 year period, due to the ageing population. Migration also impacts on the size of the GMR population. It is expected that the GMR will continue to attract the major share of overseas migrants to NSW, as 87 per cent of all NSW overseas migrants go to Sydney. Net overseas migration is projected to be 39, per year after The GMR is expected to continue to have a net loss of people to other regions of NSW and other States and territories, based on current trends. It is assumed the loss will decline from -18,8 in 25-6 to -3,6 in The internal migration figures for the GMR for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 3.3 Components of Change, GMR, 21-2 to , 8, Annual Demographic Events 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration 17 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

23 4. Newcastle Highlights In 21 the population of Newcastle was 492,5. By 231, the population is projected to reach 585,9. Newcastle has the highest level of net overseas migration in NSW outside Sydney. Newcastle has positive net internal migration, which is expected to increase over the 3 year period. Deaths will outnumber births from Population projections for regions other than Sydney and the Greater Metropolitan Region are presented for a 3 year period. Population change over time The population of Newcastle is projected to grow from 492,5 in 21 to 585,9 in 231, an increase of 93,4 people or 19 per cent over 3 years. Newcastle s population growth is projected to slow somewhat, compared with growth in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Newcastle grew by 89, people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 66, people to 558,3. Figure 4.1 Actual and Projected Population, Newcastle, , 6, 5, Number 4, 3, 2, 1, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Newcastle was 1. per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth was higher, averaging 1.2 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Newcastle is expected to slow over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be.8 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to.5 per cent. This is less than the annual growth rate of.6 per cent for NSW over this period. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 18

24 Table 4.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Newcastle, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent , , , , , , ,9.45 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While Newcastle s population is projected to grow, this will not be evenly spread across all age groups. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 13 per cent by 231 to total just over 88,. It will comprise 15 per cent of the total population compared with 2 per cent in 21. The Newcastle population will continue to age, at a faster rate than at the State level. The median age will increase by just over 1 years to 47.2 years in 231. By 212, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, those aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled to almost 162, and will comprise 28 per cent of the Newcastle population. Initial increases in the working age population (15 to 64 years) will be reversed after 221, resulting in a 5 per cent increase in this group between 21 and 231. This small increase along with the marked increase in the older age groups will increase the dependency ratio to 74 dependants per 1 working age population in 231. This is significantly higher than the dependency ratio for NSW in 231 (61 dependants per 1 working age population). Figure 4.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Newcastle, 21 and Age (years) , 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

25 Table 4.2 Key Statistics Newcastle, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change Until Newcastle grows through natural change with more births than deaths. From onwards there are more deaths than births resulting in negative natural change. The number of births in Newcastle is projected to remain fairly stable over the projected period at around 5,3 births each year. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, the number of deaths is projected to increase from 4, to 5,6 in 23-31, due to the ageing population. Net migration also impacts on the size of the Newcastle population. By , Newcastle is expected to gain more from migrants moving from other areas within Australia, than from overseas. Newcastle currently attracts large numbers of migrants, particularly in the older age groups, from other parts of NSW. The region is expected to continue to have a net gain of over 1, overseas migrants a year, while the net gain from the number of internal migrants is expected to increase to 1,7 a year by The internal migration figures for Newcastle for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 4.3 Components of Change, Newcastle, 21-2 to , 6, Annual Demographic Events 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 2

26 5. Wollongong Highlights In 21 the population of Wollongong was 269,6. By 231, the population is projected to reach 328,4. Wollongong is the only region in NSW projected to grow by more people in the next 2 years, compared with the previous 2 years. From 29-1 it is expected that overseas migration will be the main contributor to population growth. Population change over time The population of Wollongong is projected to grow from 269,6 in 21 to 328,4 in 231, an increase of 58,8 or 22 per cent over 3 years. Wollongong s population growth is projected to be slightly more in the next 2 years than in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Wollongong grew by some 38,2 people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 41,4 people to 311,. Figure 5.1 Actual and Projected Population, Wollongong, , 33, 3, 27, Number 24, 21, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Wollongong was.8 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth was higher, at an average of 1.1 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Wollongong is expected to slow over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be.8 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to.5 per cent. 21 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

27 Table 5.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Wollongong, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent , , , , , , ,4.52 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the population of Wollongong is projected to grow, this will not be evenly distributed across all age groups. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 7 per cent by 231 to 51,9. The proportion of those aged less than 15 years in Wollongong (16 per cent) will be higher than the proportion State-wide (15 per cent) at the end of the projections period. The Wollongong population will continue to age. By 215, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, those aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled to almost 81, and will comprise one-quarter of the total Wollongong population which is significantly higher than the proportion of the NSW population aged 65 years or more in 231 (22 per cent). Despite an 11 per cent increase in the working age population (15 to 64 years) over the next 3 years, this group will make up a slightly smaller proportion of the population in 231 (6 per cent) than in 21 (66 per cent). Figure 5.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Wollongong, 21 and Age (years) ,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 22

28 Table 5.2 Key Statistics Wollongong, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change Wollongong is one of five regions which is growing naturally throughout the projections period with more births than deaths. The number of births in Wollongong is projected to remain fairly stable over the projected period at around 3,2 births per year. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, the number of deaths is projected to increase significantly from 1,8 in 21-2 to 2,8 by 23-31, due to the ageing population. Migration also impacts on the size of Wollongong s population. In the short term the region is losing migrants through internal migration (people moving out of the region but staying in Australia), but this changes in The current trend shows that of those moving into Wollongong from other areas within NSW, over half come from Sydney. The region is expected to have a steady gain of overseas migrants with a net movement into the region of around 1,1 a year. From 29-1 overseas migration will overtake natural change as the main contributor to Wollongong s growth. The internal migration figures for Wollongong for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 5.3 Components of Change, Wollongong, 21-2 to Annual Demographic Events 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , Financial Year 23 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration

29 6. Hunter Balance Highlights In 21 the population of Hunter Balance was 96,4. By 231, the population is projected to reach 116,4. Population growth is expected to halve in the next 2 years, compared with the previous 2 years. Hunter Balance is expected to continue to lose a significant number of its young adult population to other parts of Australia. The population aged 65 years or more is projected to outnumber the population aged less than 15 years by 29. Geography Hunter Balance is the remainder of the Hunter Statistical Division, once Newcastle Sub-Statistical Division is excluded. See Appendices B and C for regional boundaries and definitions. Population change over time The population of Hunter Balance is projected to grow from 96,4 in 21 to 116,4 in 231, an increase of 2, or 21 per cent over 3 years. The future growth in the Hunter Balance population is projected to be less than growth in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Hunter Balance grew by some 27,1 people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 13,6 people to 11,. Figure 6.1 Actual and Projected Population, Hunter Balance, , 12, 1, Number 8, 6, 4, 2, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Hunter Balance was 1.7 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged 1. per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Hunter Balance is expected to slow substantially over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected at.8 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to.6 per cent. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 24

30 Table 6.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Hunter Balance, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent 21 96,4 26 1, , , , , ,4.55 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the population of the Hunter Balance region is projected to grow, this will not be the same across all age groups. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 14 per cent by 231 to total 17,8 and comprise 15 per cent of the total population. This group will fall at a faster rate than the State as a whole. In 231, 16 per cent of the NSW population will be aged less than 15 years, compared with 2 per cent in 21. The Hunter Balance region s population will continue to age. By 29, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, the population aged 65 years and over will more than double to number 36,1 and comprise almost one-third of the total population. The large expected increase in the older age groups along with minimal growth in the working age population (15 to 64 years) will result in a considerable increase in the dependency ratio for the Hunter Balance region which is projected to rise from 6 dependants per 1 working age population in 21 to 86 per 1 in 231. Figure 6.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Hunter Balance, 21 and Age (years) , , Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

31 Table 6.2 Key Statistics Hunter Balance, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change Hunter Balance will continue to have a higher fertility rate compared with NSW overall. However, from the number of deaths will outnumber births in this region. The number of births in Hunter Balance is projected to remain fairly stable over the projected period at around 97 each year. The number of deaths is projected to increase from 78 to 1,2 over the 3 year period. Migration also impacts on the size of Hunter Balance. It is expected that the region will have a net gain of 14 overseas migrants each year of the projections period. Net internal migration is set to decline between 21 and 26, but it will increase after 26, and will remain the major contributor to population growth in the region. In it is projected that Hunter Balance will add 71 people to its population through net internal migration. Much of the current trend in internal migration is due to intrastate migration to and from other regions of NSW. Many young people tend to migrate for employment opportunities to Newcastle, Sydney and Brisbane, while there is an influx of older migrants from Sydney. The internal migration figures for Hunter Balance for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The downward trend in the first five years of the projections period is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 6.3 Components of Change, Hunter Balance, 21-2 to Annual Demographic Events Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 26

32 7. Illawarra Balance Highlights In 21 the population of Illawarra Balance was 13,4. By 231, the population is projected to reach 189,6. Illawarra Balance is projected to have the highest growth rate over 3 years of any region in NSW. Illawarra Balance has the highest projected life expectancy for females of any region in NSW. By 231, one-third of the Illawarra Balance population will be aged 65 years or over. Geography Illawarra Balance is the remainder of the Illawarra Statistical Division, once the Wollongong Sub-Statistical Division is excluded. See Appendices B and C for regional boundaries and definitions. Population change over time The population of Illawarra Balance is projected to grow from 13,4 in 21 to 189,6 in 231, an increase of 59,2 or 45 per cent over 3 years. The population of Illawarra Balance is projected to grow by less in the next 2 years than in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, the region grew by some 57, people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 4,3 people to 17,7. Figure 7.1 Actual and Projected Population, Illawarra Balance, , 18, 16, Number 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Illawarra Balance was 2.9 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged 2.2 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Illawarra Balance is expected to slow substantially over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be 1.7 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to 1. per cent. 27 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

33 Table 7.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Illawarra Balance, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent 21 13, , , , , , ,6 1.1 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure As the population of the Illawarra Balance region is projected to grow, the age distribution of the population is expected to change. However, the population aged less than 15 years will be virtually the same in 231 as it was in 21. The number of births in Illawarra Balance is expected to remain fairly stable over time as the number of women in the childbearing age groups is expected to increase slightly, unlike in many other regions where numbers are expected to fall. The Illawarra Balance s population will continue to age. The median age is expected to increase dramatically from the current 4.4 years to 53.5 years in 231. This will result in a much older population compared with the State as a whole (42.6 years in 231). As early as 27, those aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, those aged 65 years and over will almost treble to 62,8 and will comprise one-third of the Illawarra Balance s population. Despite a 25 per cent increase in the working age population (15 to 64 years), the dependency ratio will increase significantly to 93 dependants per 1 working age population by 231. This reflects the increase in the number of older people migrating to this region. Figure 7.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Illawarra Balance, 21 and Age (years) , 1,6 1, ,2 1,6 2, Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 28

34 Table 7.2 Key Statistics Illawarra Balance, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change The number of births in Illawarra Balance is projected to remain fairly stable over the projections period at around 1,4 births per year. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, the number of deaths is projected to increase from 1,1 to 1,9 per year over the 21 to 231 period due to the ageing population. The number of deaths is expected to exceed the number of births by 214. Overseas migration is not a major component of population growth in the Illawarra Balance region, contributing 3 people per year to projected population growth. Internal migration, particularly from within NSW, is the major factor underlying the projected population growth in Illawarra Balance. Net internal migration to the region is projected to increase over time to 2, per year by 231. The region attracts large numbers of older migrants, while tending to lose young adults to Sydney and Wollongong. This will result in a significant ageing of the population. The internal migration figures for Illawarra Balance for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. Figure 7.3 Components of Change, Illawarra Balance, 21-2 to ,5 2, Annual Demographic Events 1,5 1, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration 29 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

35 8. Richmond-Tweed Highlights In 21 the population of Richmond-Tweed was 216,3. By 231, the population is projected to reach 289,3. Richmond-Tweed has the second highest growth rate over 3 years of any region in NSW. Richmond-Tweed has the highest projected net overseas migration of any region outside Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong. By 231, the population aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled. Population change over time The population of Richmond-Tweed is projected to grow from 216,3 in 21 to 289,3 in 231, an increase of 73, or 34 per cent over 3 years. Richmond-Tweed s population is projected to grow by considerably less than in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, the region grew by some 84, people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 49, people to 265,5. Figure 8.1 Actual and Projected Population, Richmond-Tweed, , 28, 24, Number 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Richmond-Tweed was 2.5 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged 1.5 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Richmond-Tweed is expected to slow over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be 1.1 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to.8 per cent. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 3

36 Table 8.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Richmond-Tweed, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent , , , , , , ,3.82 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the population of Richmond-Tweed is projected to grow, the age distribution of this population is expected to change. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 9 per cent by 221. Between 221 and 231, the decline will be reversed and this group is projected to grow again (by less than 2 per cent to 41,7). This reversal of trend is most likely to be a result of family migration into the region and an increase in the number of women of childbearing age. The overall decline in the population aged less than 15 years over the next 3 years means it will comprise 14 per cent of the total population in 231 compared with 21 per cent in 21. The Richmond-Tweed population will continue to age. By 231, the median age of the population will have increased by 11.8 years to 51.8 years, which will be considerably older than the State as a whole (42.6 years). By 21, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, those aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled to 91,1 and will comprise almost one-third of the population in Richmond-Tweed. As a result of the growth in the older age groups, the dependency ratio will rise to 85 dependants per 1 working age population in 231. Figure 8.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Richmond-Tweed, 21 and Age (years) ,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

37 Table 8.2 Key Statistics Richmond-Tweed, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change The number of births in Richmond-Tweed is projected to average around 2,2 each year over the projections period. Despite increasing life expectancy, the number of deaths is projected to increase from 1,8 to 2,8 per year between 21 and 231 due to the ageing population. The number of deaths is expected to exceed the number of births by 216. Overseas migration is a significant component of population growth in the Richmond-Tweed region, contributing 6 people per year to projected population growth. Internal migration is the major factor underlying population growth in this region with a net gain of 2,3 a year by 231. Richmond-Tweed currently has large numbers of both interstate arrivals and departures, mostly moving to and from Queensland. This results in a small net interstate migration loss. However, the region gains large numbers of people from other parts of NSW, particularly Sydney and the coastal regions. The gain of large numbers of older migrants, together with the loss of young adults, particularly to Queensland, will result in a significant ageing of the population. The internal migration figures for Richmond-Tweed for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. Net internal migration for these two years is unusually low based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 8.3 Components of Change, Richmond-Tweed, 21-2 to , 2,5 Annual Demographic Events 2, 1,5 1, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 32

38 9. Mid-North Coast Highlights In 21 the population of Mid-North Coast was 28,6. By 231, the population is projected to reach 363,8. Mid-North Coast has the biggest gains through internal migration of any region in NSW. The number of deaths is expected to exceed the number of births in Mid-North Coast by 26, much earlier than in most other regions. By 231, 35 per cent of the Mid-North Coast population will be aged 65 years or over, the highest proportion in any region. Population change over time The population of the Mid-North Coast is projected to grow from 28,6 in 21 to 363,8 in 231, an increase of 83,2 or 3 per cent over 3 years. Mid-North Coast s population is projected to grow by about half as much as in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, the region grew by some 14,1 people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 56,5 people to 337,1. Figure 9.1 Actual and Projected Population, Mid-North Coast, , 36, 32, 28, Number 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for the Mid-North Coast was 2.3 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged 1.3 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for the Mid-North Coast is expected to slow over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be 1.1 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to.7 per cent. 33 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

39 Table 9.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Mid-North Coast, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent 21 28, , , , , , ,8.72 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure As the population of the Mid-North Coast is projected to grow, the age distribution of the population is expected to change. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 13 per cent, by 231, to 52,1. The Mid-North Coast s population will continue to age. By 26, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, those aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled to 127,3 and will comprise more than one-third of the Mid-North Coast population. While the working age population (15 to 64 years) of the Mid-North Coast will have increased by 8 per cent by 231, it will make up a smaller proportion of the total population. This reflects the dramatic increase in the older age groups, and the increased dependency ratio from 65 per 1 working age population in 21 to 97 per 1 in 231, the highest of any region in NSW. Figure 9.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Mid-North Coast, 21 and Age (years) ,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 34

40 Table 9.2 Key Statistics Mid-North Coast, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change The number of births in the Mid-North Coast is projected to decrease slightly over the projections period from around 2,8 per year in 21 to 2,5 by 231. An ageing population results in the number of deaths increasing from 2,6 to 4,1 a year between 21 and 231. The number of deaths is expected to exceed the number of births by 26. Overseas migration is not a major component of population growth in the Mid-North Coast region, contributing 4 people per year to projected population growth. Internal migration is the major factor underlying the projected population growth in Mid-North Coast. Net migration to the region is projected to increase to 3,6 a year by 231. The region gains large numbers of people from other parts of NSW, including Sydney and inland regions. It also has significant interstate migration losses, mainly to Queensland. The Mid-North Coast region attracts large numbers of older migrants, while tending to lose young adults to the major metropolitan centres of NSW and Queensland. This results in a significant ageing of the population. The internal migration figures for Mid-North Coast for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. Figure 9.3 Components of Change, Mid-North Coast, 21-2 to ,5 4, Annual Demographic Events 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Financial Year 35 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration

41 1. Northern Highlights In 21 the population of Northern was 18,4. By 231, the population is projected to reach 18,5. Northern is projected to have the second slowest growth rate in NSW. Northern has the biggest losses through internal migration of any region in NSW outside of Sydney. By 231, 17 per cent of the Northern population will be aged 15 years or under the third highest in NSW. Population change over time The population of Northern is projected to decline slightly in size and then recover during the period The region s population is expected to fall slightly from 18,4 in 21 to 178,7 in 211, and then to increase back to 21 levels by 231. Between 1981 and 21, the region grew by some 2,2 people. Between 21 and 221, the population is expected to decline by 1,1 people. Figure 1.1 Actual and Projected Population, Northern, , 18, 16, Number 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Northern was.1 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged.2 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Northern is expected to remain very low over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be -.1 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to be.4 per cent. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 36

42 Table 1.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Northern, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent 21 18, , , , , , ,5.4 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure As the population of the Northern region is expected to remain fairly stable, the age distribution of the population is expected to change. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 23 per cent to 3,9 by 231. The Northern region s population will continue to age. By 215, people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, those aged 65 years and over will have almost doubled to total 47,5 and will comprise about one-quarter of the total population. Figure 1.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Northern, 21 and Age (years) ,6 1, ,2 1,6 Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

43 Table 1.2 Key Statistics Northern, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change Births in Northern are projected to decrease over time from 2,2 a year in 21 to 1,7 by 231, due to both falling fertility and a decline in the number of women of child-bearing age. An ageing population results in deaths increasing slightly from 1,5 in 21 to 1,7 in 231. Overseas migration will contribute about 3 people per year to projected population growth in the Northern region. Internal migration is the major factor underlying population change in Northern. Initially the region has a net loss of over 1, people per year to other parts of Australia. Northern has more intrastate migration than interstate migration, although the net effect of the intrastate movement is small. Over time internal migration losses become smaller as the population becomes older and less mobile. By 231, the net internal migration loss is projected to be 3 people per year. Current losses are mainly to other States, particularly Queensland, and mostly from the young adult population. The internal migration figures for Northern for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 1.3 Components of Change, Northern, 21-2 to ,5 2, 1,5 Annual Demographic Events 1, , -1,5-2, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 38

44 11. North Western Highlights In 21 the population of North Western was 119,6. By 231, the population is projected to reach 123,1. North Western has the highest current and projected fertility rate of any region in NSW. Despite this, the number of births is projected to decline. North Western has the lowest projected life expectancy for females of any region in NSW. North Western has the second highest proportion of the population aged 15 years or less of any region. Population change over time The population of North Western is projected to grow slowly from 119,6 in 21 to 123,1 in 231, an increase of 3,5 or 3 per cent over 3 years. North Western s population growth is projected to slow compared with growth in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, North Western grew by some 11,1 people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 1,3 people to 12,9. Figure 11.1 Actual and Projected Population, North Western, , 12, 1, Number 8, 6, 4, 2, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for North Western was.5 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged.4 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for North Western is expected to increase over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be -.1 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have increased slightly to.2 per cent. 39 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

45 Table 11.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, North Western, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent , , , , , , ,1.16 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the population of the North Western region is projected to grow, this growth will not be reflected in all age groups of the population. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 24 per cent by 231 to total 22,2. The North Western region s population will continue to age. The median age will increase by more than 1 years to 45.6 years in 231. By 219, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, the number of people aged 65 years and over will have doubled to 31, and will comprise one-quarter of the total population of the region. Figure 11.2 Age and Sex Distribution, North Western, 21 and Age (years) , ,2 Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 4

46 Table 11.2 Key Statistics North Western, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change Births in North Western are projected to decline from 1,7 in 21 to 1,3 in 231, due to both falling fertility and a decline in the number of women of child-bearing age. An ageing population results in the number of deaths increasing slightly from 1, in 21 to 1,3 in 231, when the number of births and deaths each year will be similar. Overseas migration will contribute about 14 people per year to projected population growth in the North Western region. Internal migration is the major contributor to population change in the North Western region. In the initial years of the projection the region is projected to have a net loss of over 1, people per year to other parts of Australia. Over time the losses will become smaller as the population becomes older and less mobile. By 231, the number of arrivals and departures are expected to be about equal. North Western currently loses people through migration to Queensland, the Hunter region, Sydney and the Mid-North Coast. The largest migration losses are in the young adult population. The internal migration figures for North Western for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 11.3 Components of Change, North Western, 21-2 to , 1,5 Annual Demographic Events 1, , -1, Financial Year 41 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration

47 12. Central West Highlights In 21 the population of Central West was 177,7. By 231, the population is projected to reach 19,1. Projected growth rates will be lower than those seen in the last 2 years. After 226, deaths will exceed births but this will be counterbalanced by net gains from internal migration. Population change over time The population of Central West is projected to grow from 177,7 in 21 to 19,1 in 231, an increase of 12,4 or 7 per cent over 3 years. Central West s population growth in the next 2 years is projected to be less than growth in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Central West grew by some 12,8 people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 7,5 people to 185,2. Figure 12.1 Actual and Projected Population, Central West, , 16, Number 12, 8, 4, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Central West was.4 per cent and between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged.6 per cent. The average annual growth rates for Central West are expected to be lower over the next 3 years. Annual growth between 21 and 26 is projected to be.2 per cent. Over the following decade annual growth is expected to fall below.2 per cent before increasing again after 216. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to be.2 per cent. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 42

48 Table 12.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Central West, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent , , , , , , ,1.24 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure As the population of the Central West region is projected to grow, the age distribution of the population is expected to change. Between 21 and 231, only age groups over 54 years of age will increase in size. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 23 per cent by 231 to total 3,7. The number of people in the working age groups (15 to 64 years) will also decline (by 5 per cent). Central West s population will continue to age. The median age will increase by about 11 years to 47.3 years in 231. By 214, people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231 the number of people aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled to 52, and will comprise 27 per cent of the total population. Figure 12.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Central West, 21 and Age (years) ,5 1, ,2 1,5 Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

49 Table 12.2 Key Statistics Central West, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of growth The number of births in the Central West region is projected to decline from 2,2 per year in 21 to 1,7 by 231. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, the annual number of deaths is projected to increase from 1,5 to 1,9 over the next 3 years. Deaths exceed births from onwards. This increase is due to the growing number of people in the older age groups. Migration also impacts on the size of the Central West population. It is expected that the Central West region will continue to attract a small number of overseas migrants. Net overseas migration is projected to be about 3 per year. Central West is expected to continue to have a net loss of people through internal migration, until about 218. After this time the trend is expected to reverse and the region will gain people through internal migration from other regions of NSW. The region is expected to continue to have a net migration loss of people interstate. The internal migration figures for Central West for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 12.3 Components of Change, Central West, 21-2 to ,5 2, Annual Demographic Events 1,5 1, , Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 44

50 13. South Eastern Highlights In 21 the population of South Eastern was 193,1. By 231, the population is projected to reach 256,. Projected annual growth rates are amongst the highest in the State. South Eastern is expected to age at a greater rate than other regions of NSW, due to the migration of older people into the region. South Eastern is projected to have the lowest proportion, of any NSW region, of the population aged less than 15 years in 231. Population change over time The population of the South Eastern region is projected to grow from 193,1 in 21 to 256, in 231, an increase of 62,9 or 33 per cent over 3 years. South Eastern s population in the next 2 years is projected to grow by less than in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, South Eastern grew by some 53,9 people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 41,8 people to 234,9. Figure 13.1 Actual and Projected Population, South Eastern, , 24, 2, Number 16, 12, 8, 4, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for the South Eastern region was 1.6 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged 1.5 per cent. The annual rate of growth for South Eastern is expected to slow over the next 3 years. Annual growth between 21 and 26 is projected to be 1.1 per cent. During annual growth is projected to slow to.8 per cent. This compares with an annual growth rate of.6 per cent for the State for the same period. 45 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

51 Table 13.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, South Eastern, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent , , , , , , ,.83 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure As the population of the South Eastern region is projected to grow, the age structure of the population is expected to change. All the growth will be concentrated in ages over 4 years, while the population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 12 per cent by 231 to 36,4. South Eastern s population will continue to age, with the median age increasing by 13.3 years to 52.3 years between 21 and 231. This is considerably older than the State as a whole (42.6 years) and the largest increase of all regions. By 211, people aged 65 years or more outnumber those aged under 15 years. By 231, the number of people aged 65 years and over will almost treble to 78,4, comprising 31 per cent of the region s population. Even though the number of people of working age (15 to 64 years) will increase by 14 per cent over the next 3 years, this group will comprise a smaller proportion of the total population. These changes in the region s age composition will have a big impact on the dependency ratio which will increase from 56 dependants per 1 working age population to 81 per 1 in 231. The dependency ratio for NSW as a whole increases from 5 per 1 to 61 per 1 in the same period. Figure 13.2 Age and Sex Distribution, South Eastern, 21 and Age (years) ,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 46

52 Table 13.2 Key Statistics South Eastern, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change Births in South Eastern are projected to decline from 2,2 in 21 to 1,9 a year by 231. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, deaths are projected to increase from 1,5 to 2,6 a year between 21 and 231, due to the ageing population. By 216, deaths will exceed births in the region. Migration also impacts on the size of South Eastern s population. It is expected that South Eastern will continue to attract overseas migrants. Net overseas migration is projected to be about 36 per annum. Net internal migration remains the major contributor to the region s growth. The region is expected to continue to have a net gain of people both from other parts of the State and interstate. It is assumed that the net gain from internal migration will slowly increase from 1,1 after 25-6 to around 2,2 in Intrastate migrants currently come from the Central West, Murrumbidgee and North Western regions while interstate migrants come mostly from Victoria. The internal migration figures for South Eastern for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. Figure 13.3 Components of Change, South Eastern, 21-2 to , 2,5 Annual Demographic Events 2, 1,5 1, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration 47 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

53 14. Murrumbidgee Highlights In 21 the population of Murrumbidgee was 152,5. By 231, the population is projected to reach 162,7. There will be significant changes in the age distribution of the population, with declines in all ages under 55 years (particularly children) and a doubling of the population aged 65 years and over. By 231 Murrumbidgee will have the highest proportion of the population aged under 15 of any NSW region. Population change over time The population of Murrumbidgee is projected to grow from 152,5 in 21 to 162,7 in 231, an increase of 1,2 or 7 per cent over 3 years. Murrumbidgee s population growth is expected to be slightly less in the next 2 years than in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Murrumbidgee grew by some 8,2 people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 6,2 people to 158,7. Figure 14.1 Actual and Projected Population, Murrumbidgee, , 15, Number 12, 9, 6, 3, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Murrumbidgee was.3 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged.4 per cent. Annual growth rates for Murrumbidgee are fairly stable over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 211 is projected to be less than.2 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to be.2 per cent. This compares with an annual growth rate of.6 per cent in NSW between 226 and 231. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 48

54 Table 14.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Murrumbidgee, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent , , , , , , ,7.23 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the population of the Murrumbidgee region is projected to grow, the growth is not reflected across all age groups. The number of people aged under 55 years is expected to decline between 21 and 231. By 231 the population aged less than 15 years is also expected to decline, by 17 per cent to total 29,5. This proportion is higher than the proportion of the NSW population aged less than 15 years (16 per cent). The number of people in the working age groups (15 to 64 years) will also decline after 211, by 4 per cent up to 231. Murrumbidgee s population will continue to age. The median age of the population will increase to 43.1 years by 231, which will be only slightly older than the State as a whole (42.6 years). By 219, the population aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231 people aged 65 years and over will have doubled to 4,1 and will comprise about one-quarter of the region s population. Figure 14.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Murrumbidgee, 21 and Age (years) ,5 1, ,2 1,5 Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

55 Table 14.2 Key Statistics Murrumbidgee, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change Births in Murrumbidgee are projected to fall from around 2,1 in 21 to 1,8 births a year by 231. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, deaths are projected to increase from 1,3 to 1,5 over the 3 years, due to the ageing population. As with most NSW regions, this results in natural growth declining over time. Migration also impacts on the size of the Murrumbidgee population. Murrumbidgee is expected to continue to attract overseas migrants. Net overseas migration is projected to be 34 per year after Based on current trends Murrumbidgee is expected to continue to have a net migration loss of people interstate, although this will diminish in size in the future. There is an expected counterbalancing in-migration gain of people from other regions of NSW (particularly the Central West and North Western regions), which is expected to increase over the projections period. The combined effect of these flows is a marked reduction in the overall net migration loss of people from Murrumbidgee between 21 and 231. The internal migration figures for Murrumbidgee for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. Figure 14.3 Components of Change, Murrumbidgee, 21-2 to ,5 2, Annual Demographic Events 1,5 1, , -1, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 5

56 15. Murray Highlights In 21 the population of Murray was 113,4. By 231, the population is projected to reach 123,1. Projected annual growth rates are expected to slow over the next 3 years. The major causes of population growth over the next 3 years will vary. Initially the main contributor will be the excess of births over deaths. Net internal migration will move from a loss of 37 in 25-6 to a gain of 37 in Population change over time The population of the Murray region is projected to grow from 113,4 in 21 to 123,1 in 231, an increase of 9,7 or 9 per cent over 3 years. Murray s population in the next 2 years is projected to grow by around half the growth of the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Murray grew by some 12,6 people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 5,5 people to 118,9. Figure 15.1 Actual and Projected Population, Murray, , 12, Number 9, 6, 3, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period 1981 to 21 the average annual growth rate for Murray was.6 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged.4 per cent. Annual growth rates for the Murray region in the next 3 years are expected to fluctuate at levels lower than reported in the previous 2 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected at.3 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to remain at.3 per cent, half of the rate for NSW in this period (.6 per cent). 51 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

57 Table 15.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Murray, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent , , , , , , ,1.33 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the population of the Murray region is projected to grow, growth is not expected in all age groups. Between 21 and 231 there will be population declines in all ages under 55 years. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 22 per cent between 21 and 231 to 19,3. The number of people in the working age groups (15 to 64 years) will also decline, but only by 4 per cent. As with all NSW regions, Murray s population will continue to age. Between 21 and 231 the median age of the population will increase by more than 1 years to 47.9 years. By 212, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231 the number of people aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled to 35,, and comprise more than 28 per cent of the total population. This proportion is higher than the proportion of the NSW population aged 65 years or more in 231 (22 per cent). Figure 15.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Murray, 21 and Age (years) , , Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 52

58 Table 15.2 Key Statistics Murray, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change From 21 to 211 the major contributor to population growth in the Murray region is natural increase. Births in Murray are projected to decline from 1,3 in 21 to 1,1 in 231. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, the number of deaths is projected to increase from 9 to 1,2 over 3 years, due to an ageing population. By 224, the number of deaths will exceed the number of births. Net overseas migration is projected to be 17 per year after Between 211 and 219 this will be the main source of population growth in the region. Up until 214, Murray is expected to continue to have a net migration loss of people to other parts of Australia, based on current trends. In 215, this net loss is expected to become a net migration gain of people which increases slowly over the remainder of the period. The largest net migration gains will be people from other States. The internal migration figures for Murray for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. Figure 15.3 Components of Change, Murray, 21-2 to ,4 1,2 1, Annual Demographic Events Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration 53 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

59 16. Far West Highlights In 21 the population of Far West was 24,4. By 231, the population is projected to decline to 17,6. Far West is the only region in NSW expected to have a decline in population between 21 and 231. Population declines are expected in all ages under 6 years. Population decline in the region over the next three decades will be a combination of an excess of deaths over births and net migration losses to other parts of Australia. Population losses through migration are expected to diminish, with very small gains from other parts of the State after 215. Population change over time The population of the Far West region is projected to decline from 24,4 in 21 to 17,6 in 231, a loss of 6,8 over 3 years. Far West s population decline in the next 2 years is projected to be less than in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Far West s population fell by 8, people. By 221, the population is expected to fall by 5,3 people to 19,1. Figure 16.1 Actual and Projected Population, Far West, , 3, 25, Number 2, 15, 1, 5, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period 1981 to 21 the population of the Far West declined by 1.4 per cent per year. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged -.8 per cent. The annual growth rate between 21 and 26 is projected to be -1.4 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to be -.8 per cent. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 54

60 Table 16.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Far West, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent 21 24, , , , , , , a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the population of Far West is projected to decline over the next 3 years, this will not be reflected across all age groups. There will be declines in all ages under 6 years. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 48 per cent by 231 to total 2,6, the greatest decline of any region in NSW over this period. The number of people in the working age groups (15 to 64 years) will also decline between 21 and 231, by 39 per cent. The median age of Far West s population will increase by 11.6 years between 21 and 231 to 5.9 years. By 28, people aged 65 years or older will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, the number of people aged 65 years and over will have increased by 4 per cent to 5,6, and will comprise almost one-third of the region s population. Figure 16.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Far West, 21 and Age (years) Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

61 Table 16.2 Key Statistics Far West, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change The main reason for the changes in the composition of the population is natural decrease. The annual number of births in Far West is projected to decline from 27 to 15 by 231. The annual number of deaths is projected to remain relatively constant at about 24 over the next 3 years, which is due to both relatively low longevity in the region and declining numbers of people aged 5-6 years. From 24 onwards, the number of deaths is expected to exceed births, so the population of the Far West region will undergo natural decline. It is expected that Far West will only attract a minimal share of overseas migrants. Net overseas migration is projected to be less than 2 per annum after Far West is expected to continue to have a net loss of people to other parts of Australia, based on current trends. However, it is assumed this net migration loss will diminish over the next 3 years and the region may experience small net migration gains from other parts of NSW after 215. The internal migration figures for the Far West for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. Figure 16.3 Components of change, Far West, 21-2 to Annual Demographic Events Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 56

62 Assumptions A number of assumptions have been made about the future direction of change in the main components of the model: fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration. These assumptions are outlined below. Fertility The NSW Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is assumed to decrease from 1.79 in 21-2 to 1.66 in 21-11, and then remain constant. Regional differentials in TFRs in the base data (an average of the financial years , , 2-1) are assumed to be maintained throughout the projections period. The ages at which women are giving birth are assumed to become slightly older over time until and then they remain constant. Fertility assumptions, NSW and its regions Children per woman (TFR) onwards Sydney (SD) Newcastle (SSD) Hunter Balance Wollongong (SSD) Illawarra Balance Richmond-Tweed (SD) Mid-North Coast (SD) Northern (SD) North Western (SD) Central West (SD) South Eastern (SD) Murrumbidgee (SD) Murray (SD) Far West (SD) New South Wales Hunter Balance = Hunter SD excl Newcastle SSD Illawarra Balance = Illawarra SD excl Wollongong SSD TFR = Total Fertility Rate 57 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

63 Mortality Life expectancy at birth in 21 is based on a projection of actual deaths from the base data (an average of , , 2-1). Life expectancy is assumed to increase half way between a linear increase in life expectancy and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) medium assumption where life expectancy increases are expected to tail off. This assumption has been made after referring to literature from both Australian and overseas demographers. Work completed by Australian demographers has shown that ABS has historically underestimated life expectancy at birth. There is also a body of international literature stating that: Life expectancy has increased linearly over long periods of time since the mid-184s and is expected to continue doing so for some considerable time. Most national governments have underestimated improvements in life expectancy and have therefore underestimated the size of their older populations. National projections should be undertaken in the international context of these improvements in mortality and not just based on national trends. NSW life expectancy at birth for 21-2 was 82.7 years for females and 77.3 years for males. By it is projected to be 88. years for males and 91.3 years for females. Mortality assumptions, NSW and its regions, 21-2 to Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) Sydney (SD) Males Sydney (SD) Females New South Wales Males New South Wales Females Life Expectancy at Birth Males (Years) Life Expectancy at Birth Females (Years) Region Newcastle (SSD) Hunter Balance Wollongong (SSD) Illawarra Balance Richmond-Tweed (SD) Mid-North Coast (SD) Northern (SD) North Western (SD) Central West (SD) South Eastern (SD) Murrumbidgee (SD) Murray (SD) Far West (SD) Hunter Balance = Hunter SD excl Newcastle SSD Illawarra Balance = Illawarra SD excl Wollongong SSD Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 58

64 Overseas migration In the first years of the projection (21-2 and 22-3) overseas migration levels for NSW match the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures published in Australian Demographic Statistics December 23 Cat. No A long-term assumption of 1, net overseas migration per year into Australia is set as the medium assumption from 25-6 onwards. Flows are smoothed into the long-term trend from the 22-3 level. In NSW the annual net gains from overseas migration decline from 44,4 in 21-2 to 42, in 25-6, then remain constant. Each region s share of overseas arrivals is derived from 1996 and 21 Census data on people who were resident overseas one year before the census. The average of the years and 2-1 is assumed to remain constant throughout the projections. Each region is assumed to have the same share of total NSW departures as it has of arrivals. Net overseas migration assumptions, NSW and its regions, 21-2 and 25-6 onwards Annual Net Overseas Migration Low Series Medium Series High Series Sydney (SD) 38,8 25,7 38,8 36,7 38,8 45,9 Newcastle (SSD) 1,2 8 1,2 1,15 1,2 1,4 Hunter Balance Wollongong (SSD) 1, ,15 1,1 1,15 1,35 Illawarra Balance Richmond-Tweed (SD) Mid-North Coast (SD) Northern (SD) North Western (SD) Central West (SD) South Eastern (SD) Murrumbidgee (SD) Murray (SD) Far West (SD) * * * * * * New South Wales 44,4 29,4 44,4 42, 44,4 52,5 * Rounded to zero. Hunter Balance = Hunter SD excl Newcastle SSD Illawarra Balance = Illawarra SD excl Wollongong SSD Note: Due to rounding the sum of the regions may not add to the net flows shown for NSW. Overseas migration assumptions for 25-6 apply for the remaining years of the projections period. 59 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

65 Internal migration There are two internal migration flows: migration flows to and from NSW and each region interstate, and intrastate migration flows within NSW. In NSW the net loss from internal migration is projected to be -16, in 26-7, increasing to a loss of -17,75 in Estimates of net internal migration in the early years of the projections are based on an analysis of net migration flows since the mid-196s using Census data and the ERP residual method. Net internal migration for each region is split between interstate and intrastate migration flows in proportion to the relative shares of these flows in 2-1 based on census data. Each region s share of in-migration is assumed to change linearly over time from 25-6, to reach a long-term share based on share of population. Regions with an increasing share of the NSW population are assumed to also attract an increasing share of in-migrants. Internal migration assumptions, NSW and its regions, 21-2 to Annual Net Internal Migration Sydney (SD) -3, -2,25-22,3-24,45-26,55-28,4-29,8-3,8-31,6-32,4 Newcastle (SSD) 1,4 1, 1,5 1,2 1,4 1,6 Hunter Balance Wollongong (SSD) Illawarra Balance 1,85 1,6 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 Richmond-Tweed (SD) 1,35 1,7 1,75 1,9 2,5 2,2 Mid-North Coast (SD) 3, 2,45 2,65 3, 3,3 3,5 Northern (SD) -1,3-1, North Western (SD) -1, Central West (SD) South Eastern (SD) 1,65 1,2 1,5 1,8 2, 2,15 Murrumbidgee (SD) Murray (SD) Far West (SD) New South Wales -24,45-16, -16,5-16,5-16,25-16,6-17, -17,35-17,55-17,75 Hunter Balance = Hunter SD excl Newcastle SSD Illawarra Balance = Illawarra SD excl Wollongong SSD Notes: NSW regions outside Sydney are not projected beyond Due to rounding the sum of the regions may not add to the net flows shown for NSW. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 6

66 Methodology and Data Sources Methodology The multi-regional cohort component model operates using the basic demographic projections equation: Projected population = Initial population + births deaths + overseas immigration overseas emigration + internal in-migration internal out-migration The methodology used to set the model inputs for each component is set out below. Fertility The model requires Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) and age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for NSW, Rest of Australia and each region within NSW from 21-2 to TFRs and ASFRs were held constant from onwards. TFRs for NSW, Rest of Australia and each region were calculated from actual births data. An average of the three most recent years of data was used ( , and 2-1) in order to smooth out any short-term variations. Historical fertility data were investigated to establish trends in fertility over time. An exponential trend line was drawn through the TFR data for NSW between and 22-3 and projected forward to This resulted in a target TFR for of 1.66 for NSW. TFRs were then projected forward from the base data to the target 1.66 level in to provide NSW TFRs for all years between 21-2 and TFRs for each region were set by taking differentials in TFRs from the base data and applying those differentials to each region in each projected year. Age-specific fertility rates were calculated for each region from actual births data. An average of three years data was used ( , and 2-1). An age profile was also produced for the year to reflect the propensity of women to give birth at older ages. The model moved linearly between the two sets of age profiles in order to calculate age-specific fertility rates for each intervening year. 61 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

67 Mortality The model requires an overall level of mortality for each region which is determined by life expectancy at birth. It also requires age-specific mortality rates by gender for each year of the projections period for each region. The life expectancy at birth values used in these projections were set between the high and medium mortality scenarios published in 23 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (Population Projections Australia Cat: 3222.). The high ABS assumption adopts a linear increase in life expectancy which follows an historical trend. The ABS medium assumption was more conservative and assumed that the increase in life expectancy would level off in the future. Life expectancy at birth figures were calculated for the State and each region from actual deaths data using an average of three years data ( , and 2-1). The differentials between these figures and the ABS calculated life expectancy figures for Australia were maintained throughout the projections period. Age-specific mortality rates were obtained by smoothing deaths data from the years , and 2-1 in order to smooth out any short-term variations. Smoothed data for NSW and Sydney were used to construct age profiles for these areas. Age-specific deaths data for regions outside Sydney were less robust so the deaths age profile for NSW was used for these regions and scaled up or down to match actual deaths in those areas. The age-specific death rate profiles were gradually altered over the whole projections period to match trends in differential improvements by age. Overseas migration The number of arrivals and departures is required for each region and each year of the projections period, as well as an age profile for both. Long-term and permanent arrivals and departures for NSW were obtained from the Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA) passenger card information provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Historical data were analysed to inform future levels of immigration and emigration. High (125,), medium (1,) and low (7,) assumed levels of net migration to Australia were set based on these trends. These levels were the same as the ABS assumptions on overseas net migration published in the 23 report Population Projections Australia ABS Cat: Total overseas migration (in and out) is set at a fixed level within the model. Each region s share of overseas arrivals was derived from the 1996 and 21 Census data on people who were resident overseas one year before the census. The average of the years and 2-1 is assumed to remain constant throughout the projections. Each region is assumed to have the same share of total NSW departures as it has of arrivals. The age and sex profile of overseas arrivals was derived from the average for the three years , and 2-1, and was held constant throughout the projections period. Out-migration rates were derived from the average for the same three years. These rates were applied to the projected population with the total overseas outmigration adjusted to add to the fixed total. Thus the age and sex distribution of out-migration varies over time, while the total level is fixed. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 62

68 Internal migration There are two components of internal migration: people moving from and to each region interstate, and people moving from and to each region within the State. Out-migrants from each area by age and sex are calculated using out-migration rates applied to the population. This pool of migrants is then apportioned back to each region as in-migrants. The use of the migration pool model means that as the population of a region increases, so does the number of people moving out of the region. A region with a decreasing population will have a decreasing number of people moving out. It was also assumed that the relative attraction of a region to in-movers would change as its population changed. Therefore, after the initial years internal migration is an output of the model rather than a set input. At the State level the DIPNR model works in a bi-regional way calculating figures for NSW and Rest of Australia. Sub-state the model is multi-regional with all regions linked together with a migration pool. For both interstate and intrastate migration at State level, an average of the most recently available three years of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) internal migration data sourced from the Health Insurance Commission (HIC) are used in the model. At the regional level 21 Census one-year migration data were scaled up to the State adjusted HIC figures. Internal net migration is set for the initial years of the projection where data are available (21-2 and 22-3). Net migration trends over the 35 years from 1966 to 21 were analysed to set future levels. Data sources The historical data on births, deaths, migration and estimated resident population on which these projections are based were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (unpublished data). The births and deaths data are based on registrations provided by the Registrar of Births, Deaths and Marriages in each State and Territory. Overseas migration data at national and State level are derived from passenger cards completed on arrival to and departure from Australia. Passenger card information is collected by the Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs. Interstate migration data are derived from changes of address reported to the Health Insurance Commission. Migration data at sub-state level are derived from 1996 and 21 Census questions on place of residence one and five years ago. 63 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

69 Sensitivity analysis In this analysis each of the main components is altered in turn to illustrate the effect each has on the population of NSW by the end of the projections period. Fertility Increasing the TFR by.1 over the projections period results in an increase in the NSW population of 24, by 251. Fertility rates change slowly in areas like NSW where they are already low. The last change of.1 in the TFR from 1.9 to 1.8 took around seven years to achieve, and the drop from 2. to 1.9 took around 16 years. In this analysis the TFR is increased by.1 above the assumed rate for each year between 21 and 251. This increases the number of births over the period and the size of the population aged to 5 years. Many of the additional people will have children of their own during this period which will again add to the population. Mortality Increasing the life expectancy at birth by one year throughout the projections period results in an increase in the NSW population of 92, by 251. In recent times in Australia this level of change has been seen over a three to four year period. However, the increase in life expectancy at birth has been linear for a long period and therefore it would need a significant shift in mortality rates to gain an extra year in life expectancy in the short term, in addition to the gains already assumed in the model. Overseas migration Increasing the number of overseas migrants who come to NSW by one per cent over the projections period increases the NSW population in 251 by 9, people. This component fluctuates considerably from year to year and is strongly influenced by policy decisions on immigration. In the past 2 years annual changes in the number of overseas arrivals have ranged from +2 per cent to -21 per cent compared with current levels. The volatility of this component makes it difficult to predict long term levels. This analysis shows that relatively small changes in overseas migration have a significant effect on the future population. In reality, increasing immigration is accompanied by increasing emigration (not accounted for here). Also historical trends show that when levels of immigration are high there are correspondingly high levels of interstate out-migration. Internal migration Increasing the assumed number of people who come to NSW from other States by one per cent results in an increase to the NSW population of 37, by 251. Migrant flows from other States have increased slowly from around 7, a year in the early 198s to around 9, a year in recent times. As with overseas migration this component is difficult to predict. Also, the effect of increasing the number of interstate in-migrants is somewhat dampened by the model as the increased population this produces is automatically offset by an increasing level of interstate out-migration. Technical note It is impossible to isolate the effect of a change in one component completely in this projections model. For example, when fertility is increased, this increases the population of NSW, and as interstate out-migration is set by out-migration rates rather than predetermined levels, this also increases the level of interstate out-migration. This analysis shows the results of altering one component acknowledging the cascade effect this has on other components. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 64

70 Explanatory Notes Projections not predictions, forecasts or targets The population projections published in this report are not predictions, forecasts or targets. They project the population forward using a set of assumptions. The assumptions are set using demographic techniques to assess the future direction of different components. Past trends and current patterns are investigated, and some judgement about the future based on demographic patterns is used. It is not certain whether these assumptions will hold over the projections period. In fact there are very likely to be changes in social policy, behaviour, or economics which will affect this set of assumptions. Alternative projections have been produced by DIPNR to provide users with a range of alternative seriess. These alternative seriess are available upon request. In these projections different components have been varied in order to show the range of outcomes which may be possible. Projection series It is known that overseas migration has a large impact on Sydney s growth, and that this component fluctuates greatly over time. Although small changes in fertility can have a large impact on projected population numbers, fertility levels are not expected to change dramatically in NSW over the next 5 years. In order to account for the difficulties in projecting future levels of overseas migration, three series of projections were produced for NSW, Sydney and the GMR. These were based upon a high level of annual net overseas migration to Australia from 25-6 of 125,, a medium level of 1, and a low level of 7,. Overseas migration has much less impact on regional populations outside Sydney and so calculating different series for these regions would show a much smaller deviation from the medium series. Further scenarios have been produced with changes to the assumptions of fertility, mortality and internal migration. These are available from DIPNR on request. The projections model These projections have been produced using POPSTAR (Population Projections for a State/Territory and its Regions), a multi-regional cohort component model developed by the University of Queensland. The model projects births, deaths, internal migration and overseas migration by single year of age, separately for males and females, for each region of the State. This model is also being used to produce population projections for the State Government of Queensland. Projection horizon The populations of NSW, Sydney SD and the Greater Metropolitan Region are projected for 5 years from 21 to 251. The populations of the other regions are projected for 3 years from 21 to 231. Launch year The first year the model produces projections for is the financial year This is the launch year of the projections model. 65 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

71 Base data The data used to determine the fertility and mortality levels for the launch year of the projections are called the base data. This is an average of the three most recent years of births and deaths data available at the time the projections model was run ( , , and 2-1). Three years data were used in order to smooth out short-term variations. The rates obtained from the base data are projected forward to produce fertility and mortality rates for the launch year of the projections. Geography Projections have been produced for NSW, Statistical Divisions (SD) in NSW (except the Hunter and Illawarra SDs), and the GMR. The Statistical Divisions are Richmond-Tweed, Mid-North Coast, Northern, North Western, Central West, South Eastern, Murrumbidgee, Murray, and Far West. The GMR comprises the Sydney SD, Newcastle SSD and Wollongong SSD. For the Hunter SD, projections have been produced for Newcastle Statistical Subdivision (SSD) and Hunter Balance (that is the Hunter SD excluding Newcastle SSD). For the Illawarra SD, projections have been produced for Wollongong SSD and Illawarra Balance (that is the Illawarra SD excluding Wollongong SSD). In the section comparing the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and DIPNR population projection results reference is made to NSW Balance. This area is NSW excluding the Sydney SD. Comparison of Australian Bureau for Statistics (ABS) and DIPNR population projection results The Australian Bureau for Statistics (ABS) publishes population projections for States, capital cities and balance of State across Australia. The most recent set of ABS population projections were published in Population Projections Australia ABS Cat. No: In the first few years of the projections period, DIPNR results are slightly lower (.1 per cent for NSW) than ABS figures. In this period the DIPNR projections are linked to actual population counts published by ABS. DIPNR figures are slightly lower than ABS figures because DIPNR has incorporated more recent population counts, migration and fertility data into its model. The NSW overseas migration figures for 21-2 and 22-3 in particular were revised downwards significantly by ABS in December 23. These lower overseas migration figures were included in the DIPNR projections but were published after the ABS had completed its projections. Results from the ABS and DIPNR models differ by less than one per cent for NSW, Sydney and NSW Balance (all regions outside Sydney) for the first 18 years of the projections period. By 231, DIPNR figures are higher than ABS figures by 2.8 per cent for NSW, 1.8 per cent for Sydney and 4.6 per cent for NSW Balance. After that the results diverge to a greater extent with DIPNR results being higher than ABS figures in 251 by 7.7 per cent for NSW, 4.7 per cent for Sydney and 13.4 per cent for NSW Balance (although regional projections are not published by DIPNR past 231). In the longer term DIPNR figures are higher because DIPNR assumes higher life expectancy at birth (4.5 per cent higher than ABS by 251), a slightly higher long-term fertility rate (a TFR in NSW of 1.66 compared with 1.63) and a slightly higher assumed share of overseas migration to NSW from 25-6 (42 per cent compared with 39 per cent). There is also a major methodological difference between the two models which contributes particularly to the difference in the NSW Balance figures. ABS projections assume a constant level of net migration from 25-6 onward. The DIPNR projections assume constant age-specific migration rates from 25-6 onward. For example, in the DIPNR model, as Sydney grows over time more people are assumed to leave for other areas in the State. In the ABS model Sydney is assumed to have the same level of net migration whatever its change in size. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 66

72 DIPNR results for NSW Balance, are higher than the high main series of figures published by ABS (Series A). ABS has based its high series for NSW on the highest assumptions for fertility, overseas migration and mortality but the lowest assumption for internal migration. The high series assumes net internal migration to NSW Balance of 13,. The ABS medium series, Series B, assumes net internal migration of 16,, while the lowest series published in detail, Series C, has a net internal migration gain to NSW Balance of 19,. This occurs because internal migration for each series must add to zero across Australia. Thus if Series A includes high internal migration for some regions it must include low internal migration for others. Series A is the highest projection for Queensland and some other States, but not for NSW. Like DIPNR, ABS produces a series of different projections other than their three main series. The highest ABS projection for NSW Balance is Series 3, which combines the highest assumptions for each variable. In Series 3 the population of NSW Balance reaches 3.35 million in 251, well above the DIPNR projection. Comparison of ABS Medium (Series B) Population Projection with DIPNR medium series, NSW, Sydney and NSW Balance, ,, 9,, 8,, 7,, 6,, Number 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Year ending 3 June NSW DIPNR medium NSW ABS B Sydney DIPNR medium Sydney ABS B Balance of state DIPNR medium Balance of state ABS B Source: DIPNR, ABS (23): Population Projections Australia ABS Cat. No: Comparison with previous NSW Government projections Previous population projections compiled by DIPNR and its predecessors used fixed levels of net internal migration, whereas in these projections levels of internal migration vary as the size and age structure of the population changes. This has a minimal impact on the size of the population at State level. However, it does result in relatively smaller long-term population losses in regions outside Sydney. Recent trends in overseas migration mean that it is likely that long-term overseas migration will be higher than assumed in previous projections. This is the main contributing factor to the higher projected population for NSW. 67 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

73 Glossary Age-specific fertility rates Age-specific fertility rates are the number of live births (occurrences rather than registrations) during the calendar year, according to the age of the mother, per 1, of the female estimated resident population of the same age at 3 June. When calculating these rates, births to mothers less than 15 years are included in the years age group, and births to mothers aged 5 years and over are included in the years age group. Age-specific mortality rates Age-specific mortality rates are the number of deaths which occurred during the calendar year at a specified age per 1, of the estimated resident population of the same age at the mid-point of the year (3 June). Pro rata adjustment is made in respect to deaths for which the age of the deceased is not given. Average annual growth rate The average annual population growth rate, r, is calculated as a percentage using the formula: r = P 1 n n [( ) ] P -1 x 1 where P is the population at the start of the period, P n is the population at the end of the period and n is the length of the period between P n and P in years. Balance of State/territory The Balance of State is the aggregation of all Statistical Divisions (SD) within a State or Territory other than its capital city SD (see Major Statistical Region in Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC) (Cat. no )). Therefore NSW Balance is the area of NSW excluding the Sydney SD. This may also be referred to as Regional NSW. Category jumping This is the term used to describe the net effect of changes in travel intention from short-term to permanent/longterm or vice versa. Childbearing ages This is the reproductive age span of women and is assumed in this model to be women aged years. Components of change These are the components which determine population change from one year to the next. They are based on births, deaths and migration and in this publication they take the form of natural change (the difference between births and deaths), net overseas migration (overseas arrivals minus overseas departures) and net internal migration (internal arrivals minus internal departures). Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 68

74 Dependency ratio A dependant is defined as a person under the age of 15 years of age or aged 65 years or over. The dependency ratio is the ratio of the number of people in the population in these age groups to the number of people of working age (aged 15 to 64 years). Estimated resident population (ERP) The official measure of the population of Australia is based on the concept of residence. It refers to all people, regardless of nationality or citizenship, who usually live in Australia for 12 months or more, with the exception of foreign diplomatic personnel and their families. It includes usual residents who are overseas for less than 12 months. It excludes overseas visitors who are in Australia for less than 12 months. Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) This area comprises Sydney (SD), Newcastle (SSD) and Wollongong (SSD). Life expectancy Life expectancy refers to the average number of additional years a person of a given age and sex might expect to live if the age-specific death rates of the given period continued throughout his or her lifetime. Long-term arrivals Long-term arrivals comprise overseas visitors who intend to stay in Australia for 12 months or more (but not permanently), and Australian residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more overseas. Long-term departures Long-term departures comprise Australian residents who intend to stay abroad for 12 months or more (but not permanently), and overseas visitors departing who stayed 12 months or more in Australia. Median For any distribution the median value (age, duration, interval) is that value which divides the relevant population into two equal parts, half falling below the value, and half exceeding it. Mid-year population The population as at 3 June. Natural increase/change The difference between births and deaths. 69 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

75 Net internal migration The difference between the number of persons who have changed their place of usual residence by moving into a defined geographical area and the number who have moved out of that defined geographical area during a specified time period. This difference may be either positive or negative. Net interstate migration The difference between the number of persons who have changed their place of usual residence by moving into a given State or Territory and the number who have changed their place of usual residence by moving out of that State or Territory during a specified time period. This difference can be either positive or negative. Net intrastate migration The difference between the number of persons who have changed their place of usual residence by moving out of an SD but who have stayed within a given State or Territory and the number who have changed their place of usual residence by moving into an SD but within a State or Territory during a specified time period. This difference can be either positive or negative. Net overseas migration Net overseas migration is net permanent and long-term overseas migration plus an adjustment for the effect of category jumping. Population growth Population growth is the sum of natural change, net overseas migration and net internal migration. Rate of growth of population The rate of population growth is the change over a period expressed as a proportion (percentage) of the population at the beginning of the period. Super-regions Super-regions are groups of areas that have similar demographic characteristics. The five super-regions are: Sydney (SD) Other Major Urban Centres Newcastle and Wollongong SSDs Coastal NSW Hunter Balance, Illawarra Balance, Richmond-Tweed SD, Mid-North Coast SD and South Eastern SD Inland NSW Northern SD, North Western SD, Central West SD, Murrumbidgee SD and Murray SD Far West (SD) Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 7

76 Statistical Division (SD) Statistical Divisions (SDs) are spatial units which are used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and defined under the Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC). There are 12 SDs in NSW: Sydney, Hunter, Illawarra, Richmond-Tweed, Mid-North Coast, Northern, North Western, Central West, South Eastern, Murrumbidgee, Murray, and Far West. SDs are mutually exclusive and may be aggregated to form the State. In NSW, SDs correspond to declared Government Regions with the exception that North Coast Region consists of the SDs of Richmond-Tweed and Mid-North Coast. Statistical Sub-division (SSD) Statistical Sub-divisions (SSDs) are spatial units of intermediate size between the Statistical Local Area (smaller) and the Statistical Division (larger). SSDs consist of one or more SLAs. In aggregate, they cover Australia without gaps or overlaps. Population projections have been produced in this report for the SSDs of Newcastle and Wollongong as these regions combine with Sydney SD to make up the Greater Metropolitan Region. Total fertility rate The sum of age-specific fertility rates. It represents the number of children a female would bear during her lifetime if she experienced current age-specific fertility rates at each age of her reproductive life. 71 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

77 Appendix A: Summary of Results Table A1: Actual and Projected Populations for NSW, Sydney and the Greater Metropolitan Region, as at 3 June, Medium Series: Region Sydney (SD) 4,128,3 4,335,3 4,554,2 4,762,2 4,965,4 5,161,5 5,345,3 5,513,2 5,665,1 5,84,1 5,933,4 Greater Metropolitan Region 4,89,4 5,128,1 5,374,3 5,67,3 5,834,7 6,54,3 6,259,6 6,445,6 6,611,8 6,762, 6,9,8 New South Wales 6,575,2 6,868,9 7,164,7 7,45,4 7,734,9 8,12,6 8,271,9 8,53,9 8,76,9 8,887,5 9,53,2 Low Series: Region Sydney (SD) 4,128,3 4,31,5 4,473,7 4,625,7 4,773,2 4,914,6 5,44,8 5,16,1 5,26, 5,347,6 5,426,4 Greater Metropolitan Region 4,89,4 5,11,7 5,288,2 5,46,3 5,626,7 5,785,7 5,931,1 6,57,9 6,165,3 6,257,1 6,337,9 New South Wales 6,575,2 6,84,1 7,68,5 7,283,3 7,494,8 7,698,6 7,883,9 8,41,5 8,169,8 8,275,3 8,366,1 High Series: Region Sydney (SD) 4,128,3 4,353, 4,618,3 4,873, 5,122,6 5,364,4 5,592,9 5,84,7 5,999,9 6,181,8 6,353,5 Greater Metropolitan Region 4,89,4 5,146,9 5,442,9 5,726,5 6,4,9 6,275, 6,53,1 6,765,5 6,98,8 7,179,8 7,367, New South Wales 6,575,2 6,889,4 7,241,1 7,585,8 7,931,2 8,27,4 8,591,4 8,885,2 9,15,5 9,393,7 9,622,2 Table A2: Average Annual Increase over Five Year Periods for NSW, Sydney and the Greater Metropolitan Region, Medium Series: Region Sydney (SD) 41,4 43,8 41,6 4,6 39,2 36,8 33,6 3,4 27,8 25,9 Greater Metropolitan Region 47,5 49,2 46,6 45,5 43,9 41,1 37,2 33,2 3, 27,8 New South Wales 58,7 59,2 57,1 56,9 55,5 51,9 46,4 4,6 36,1 33,1 Low Series: Region Sydney (SD) 36,5 32,6 3,4 29,5 28,3 26, 23,1 2, 17,5 15,8 Greater Metropolitan Region 42,3 37,3 34,4 33,3 31,8 29,1 25,4 21,5 18,4 16,2 New South Wales 53, 45,7 43, 42,3 4,8 37,1 31,5 25,7 21,1 18,1 High Series: Region Sydney (SD) 44,9 53,1 5,9 49,9 48,3 45,7 42,4 39, 36,4 34,4 Greater Metropolitan Region 51,3 59,2 56,7 55,7 54, 51, 47,1 43,1 39,8 37,4 New South Wales 62,8 7,3 68,9 69,1 67,8 64,2 58,8 53,1 48,6 45,7 Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 72

78 Table A3: Average Annual Growth Rates for NSW, Sydney and the Greater Metropolitan Region, Medium Series: Per cent Region Sydney (SD) Greater Metropolitan Region New South Wales Low Series: Per cent Region Sydney (SD) Greater Metropolitan Region New South Wales High Series: Per cent Region Sydney (SD) Greater Metropolitan Region New South Wales Table A4: Actual and Projected Populations, Regional NSW, Sydney, GMR and NSW, as at 3 June, Region Newcastle (SSD) 492,5 511,9 528,4 543,4 558,3 572,8 585,9 Hunter Balance 96,4 1,4 13,4 16,6 11, 113,3 116,4 Wollongong (SSD) 269,6 28,8 291,8 31,6 311, 32, 328,4 Illawarra Balance 13,4 141,6 151,6 161,1 17,7 18,3 189,6 Richmond-Tweed (SD) 216,3 228,9 241,3 253,3 265,5 277,7 289,3 Mid-North Coast (SD) 28,6 296,3 39,7 323,2 337,1 35,9 363,8 Northern (SD) 18,4 179,3 178,7 178,7 179,4 18,1 18,5 North Western (SD) 119,6 118,9 119, 119,7 12,9 122,2 123,1 Central West (SD) 177,7 179,7 18,8 182,7 185,2 187,9 19,1 South Eastern (SD) 193,1 24,3 214, 224,1 234,9 245,7 256, Murrumbidgee (SD) 152,5 153,9 155,1 156,6 158,7 16,8 162,7 Murray (SD) 113,4 114,8 115,6 117, 118,9 121,1 123,1 Far West (SD) 24,4 22,7 21,1 19,9 19,1 18,4 17,6 Sydney (SD) 4,128,3 4,335,3 4,554,2 4,762,2 4,965,4 5,161,5 5,345,3 Greater Metropolitan Region 4,89,4 5,128,1 5,374,3 5,67,3 5,834,7 6,54,3 6,259,6 New South Wales 6,575,2 6,868,9 7,164,7 7,45,4 7,734,9 8,12,6 8,271,9 Hunter Balance = Hunter SD excl Newcastle SSD Illawarra Balance = Illawarra SD excl Wollongong SSD Figures may not add due to rounding 73 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

79 Table A5: Average Annual Increase over Five Year Periods, Regional NSW, Sydney, GMR and NSW, Region Newcastle (SSD) 3,9 3,3 3, 3, 2,9 2,6 Hunter Balance Wollongong (SSD) 2,2 2,2 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 Illawarra Balance 2,2 2, 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 Richmond-Tweed (SD) 2,5 2,5 2,4 2,4 2,4 2,3 Mid-North Coast (SD) 3,1 2,7 2,7 2,8 2,8 2,6 Northern (SD) North Western (SD) Central West (SD) South Eastern (SD) 2,2 1,9 2, 2,1 2,2 2,1 Murrumbidgee (SD) Murray (SD) Far West (SD) Sydney (SD) 41,4 43,8 41,6 4,6 39,2 36,8 Greater Metropolitan Region 47,5 49,2 46,6 45,5 43,9 41,1 New South Wales 58,7 59,2 57,1 56,9 55,5 51,9 Hunter Balance = Hunter SD excl Newcastle SSD Illawarra Balance = Illawarra SD excl Wollongong SSD Figures may not add due to rounding Table A6: Average Annual Growth Rates, Regional NSW, Sydney, GMR and NSW, Per cent Region Newcastle (SSD) Hunter Balance Wollongong (SSD) Illawarra Balance Richmond-Tweed (SD) Mid-North Coast (SD) Northern (SD) North Western (SD) Central West (SD) South Eastern (SD) Murrumbidgee (SD) Murray (SD) Far West (SD) Sydney (SD) Greater Metropolitan Region New South Wales Hunter Balance = Hunter SD excl Newcastle SSD Illawarra Balance = Illawarra SD excl Wollongong SSD Figures may not add due to rounding Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 74

80 Appendix B: Population of NSW Regions 231 and Population Change New South Wales Population 231 and population change 21 to 231, Statistical Divisions Far West 17,6 Share of 231:.2% North Western 123,1 Share of 231: 1.5% Murray 123,1 Share of 231: 1.5% Murrumbidgee 162,7 Share of 231: 2.% Central West 19,1 Share of 231: 2.3% ACT Population Change %-% %-19.9% 2%-29.9% 3% and above TPDC Richmond -Tweed 289,3 Share of 231: 3.5% Northern 18,5 Share of 231: 2.2% Mid-North Coast 363,8 Share of 231: 4.4% Hunter Balance 116,4 Share of 231: 1.4% Newcastle SSD 585,9 Share of 231: 7.1% Sydney 5,345,3 Share of 231: 64.6% Wollongong SSD 328,4 Share of 231: 4.% Illawarra Balance 189,6 Share of 231: 2.3% South Eastern 256, Share of 231: 3.1% N W E S Kilometres 75 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

81 Appendix C: Local Government Areas in NSW by Statistical Division (SD) and Statistical Sub-division (SDD) This Appendix contains a list of LGAs in each projection area. The GMR includes Sydney (SD), Newcastle (SSD) and Illawarra (SSD). The executive summary refers to five super-regions. These are groups of areas that have similar demographic characteristics. The five super-regions are: Sydney (SD) Other Major Urban Centres Newcastle and Wollongong SSDs Coastal NSW Hunter Balance, Illawarra Balance, Richmond-Tweed SD, Mid-North Coast SD and South Eastern SD Inland NSW Northern SD, North Western SD, Central West SD, Murrumbidgee SD and Murray SD Far West (SD) SYDNEY (SD) Inner Ring Ashfield Botany Drummoyne Lane Cove Leichhardt Marrickville Mosman North Sydney Randwick South Sydney Sydney Waverley Woollahra Middle Ring Auburn Bankstown Burwood Canterbury Concord Hunters Hill Hurstville Kogarah Ku-ring-gai Manly Parramatta Rockdale Ryde Strathfield Willoughby Outer Ring Baulkham Hills Blacktown Blue Mountains Camden Campbelltown Fairfield Gosford Hawkesbury Holroyd Hornsby Liverpool Penrith Pittwater Sutherland Shire Warringah Wollondilly Wyong NEWCASTLE (SSD) Cessnock Lake Macquarie Maitland Newcastle Port Stephens HUNTER BALANCE Dungog Gloucester Great Lakes Merriwa Murrurundi Muswellbrook Scone Singleton WOLLONGONG (SSD) Kiama Shellharbour Wollongong ILLAWARRA BALANCE Shoalhaven Wingecarribee RICHMOND-TWEED (SD) Tweed Lismore Ballina Byron Kyogle Richmond Valley MID-NORTH COAST (SD) Bellingen Coffs Harbour Copmanhurst Grafton Greater Taree Hastings Kempsey Lord Howe Island Maclean Nambucca Pristine Waters Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 76

82 NORTHERN (SD) Armidale Dumaresq Barraba Bingara Glen Innes Gunnedah Guyra Inverell Manilla Moree Plains Narrabri Nundle Parry Quirindi Severn Tamworth Tenterfield Uralla Walcha Yallaroi NORTH WESTERN (SD) Bogan Bourke Brewarrina Cobar Coolah Coonabarabran Coonamble Dubbo Gilgandra Mudgee Narromine Walgett Warren Wellington CENTRAL WEST (SD) Bathurst Bland Blayney Cabonne Cowra Evans Forbes Lachlan Lithgow Oberon Orange Parkes Rylstone Weddin SOUTH EASTERN (SD) Bega Valley Bombala Boorowa Cooma-Monaro Crookwell Eurobodalla Goulburn Gunning Harden Mulwaree Queanbeyan Snowy River Tallaganda Yarrowlumla Yass Young MURRUMBIDGEE (SD) Carrathool Coolamon Cootamundra Griffith Gundagai Hay Junee Leeton Lockhart Murrumbidgee Narrandera Temora Tumut Wagga Wagga MURRAY (SD) Albury Balranald Berrigan Conargo Corowa Culcairn Deniliquin Holbrook Hume Jerilderie Murray Tumbarumba Urana Wakool Wentworth Windouran FAR WEST (SD) Broken Hill Central Darling Note: This list has been taken from the 21 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Australian Standard Geographical Classification Cat. No I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

83 Appendix D: Population Projections Group These population projections have been developed in consultation with the Interdepartmental Population Projections Group. Members of the group in 24 are: NSW Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources NSW Department of Ageing, Disability and Home Care NSW Department of Community Services NSW Department of Education and Training NSW Department of Health NSW Department of Housing NSW Treasury Sydney Water Australian Bureau of Statistics NSW Office Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 78

84 Notes Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

85 Notes Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

86 Notes Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

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