New South Wales State and Regional Population Projections Release TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE

Transcription

1 New South Wales State and Regional Population Projections Release TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE

2 THE TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE (TPDC) The TPDC is located in the NSW Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. The objective of the TPDC is to enhance Government decision-making via the provision of high quality and timely information on demographic and travel issues and trends in NSW. The TPDC is required to meet Government s and community s needs for population and transport data and provide a modelling capacity for the evaluation of strategic planning, policy and infrastructure initiatives. The main areas of work of the TPDC are: Population projections for NSW and regions Population projections at local government area for NSW Household Travel Survey (1981, 1991, continuous since 1997) Commercial Transport Study (1996, 22) Journey to Work (JTW) data (1981, 1991, 1996, 21) Travel Zone land use (population and employment) projections Strategic travel demand forecasts using the Sydney Strategic Travel Model (STM) TPDC Level 5, Henry Deane Building 2 Lee St Sydney NSW 2 GPO Box 3927 Sydney NSW 21 Telephone: (2) Fax: (2) tpdc@dipnr.nsw.gov.au 24 Crown Copyright Subject to copyright. All rights are reserved. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied by any process or any means, electronically or otherwise, without written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer While all care is taken in producing and publishing this work, no responsibility is taken or warranty made with respect to the accuracy of any information, data or representation. The authors (including copyright owners) and publishers expressly disclaim all liability in respect of anything done or omitted to be done and the consequences upon reliance of the contents of this publication. NSW Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources Transport and Population Data Centre, 24 ISBN Report 24/1 May 24 i I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

3 New South Wales State and Regional Population Projections Release Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources Transport and Population Data Centre Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I ii

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5 Table of Contents Executive Summary Introduction Projections 1. New South Wales Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region Newcastle Wollongong Hunter Balance Illawarra Balance Richmond-Tweed Mid-North Coast Northern North Western Central West South Eastern Murrumbidgee Murray Far West Assumptions Methodology and Data Sources Sensitivity Analysis Explanatory Notes Glossary Appendices A. Summary of Results B. Population of NSW Regions 231 and Population Change C. Local Government Areas in NSW by SD/SSD D. Population Projections Group Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I iv

6 Executive Summary The Transport and Population Data Centre (TPDC) in the Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources (DIPNR) is responsible for the production of official population projections on behalf of the NSW Government. The projections in this publication have been produced by the TPDC under the auspices of the NSW Population Projections Group (PPG). The projections use current and historical input data that are applied to the TPDC s multi-regional cohort component model, to produce population projections by age and sex for NSW and its regions. The projected populations are based on a series of assumptions that accord with past trends, current patterns and demographic judgement as to future patterns. These patterns differ between the regions, depending on each unique profile. At the State level, it is assumed that: Fertility will drop from 1.79 children per woman in 2-1 to 1.66 children per woman by 21-11, then remain constant; Life expectancy for males will increase from 77.3 years to 88. years between 22 and 251. Life expectancy for females will increase from 82.7 years to 91.3 years in the same period; Overseas migration will be held constant at 42, from 25-6; and Interstate migration will drop from -24,4 to -17,9 between 21 and 251. The projected population of NSW in 251, based on these assumptions, is 9.5 million, representing growth of 2.5 million people over 21. This publication presents projections for NSW, Sydney and the Greater Metropolitan Region to 251, and projections for other regions in NSW to 231. This summary examines the population trends in all regions of NSW from 21 to 231. The growth of 1.7 million people in NSW to 231 is not evenly distributed throughout NSW: The Super-region Coastal NSW comprises Hunter Balance, Illawarra Balance, Richmond-Tweed, Mid-North Coast and South Eastern regions. Coastal NSW is expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of NSW. Most of this growth is expected in the older age groups as retirees migrate from Sydney and Inland NSW. The median age is expected to increase from just over 4 years to over 5 years in Coastal NSW between 21 and 231. Sydney will continue to grow and is expected to reach 5 million by 222. The median age of Sydney s population, currently 34.9 years, is projected to be the lowest for any region by 231, at 39.9 years. This is largely due to the young overseas migrant population that is attracted to the city. The Super-region Inland NSW comprises the regions Northern, North Western, Central West, Murrumbidgee and Murray. Parts of Inland NSW are expected to have populations in decline over the first ten years of the projections period. Far West, with the smallest population, is the only region in NSW projected to decline over the 3 year projections period. 1 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

7 Regional comparison The regions of NSW can be classified into five distinct super-regions in terms of population size and demographic attributes: Sydney, as the capital city, is markedly different in its characteristics compared with Regional NSW. It will continue to dominate in its share of the NSW population. In 21 Sydney s population comprised 62.8 per cent of the NSW population. By 231 this share will have increased to 64.6 per cent. While not the fastest growing region in NSW, by virtue of its size, Sydney will comprise the major share of growth in NSW by 231, accounting for over 7 per cent of all growth. Newcastle and Wollongong, the Other Major Urban Centres, have similar demographic attributes, but are different to Sydney. While they will continue to grow, their combined share of population will decline slightly from 11.6 per cent in 21 to 11.1 per cent in 231. Coastal NSW is projected to change the most of any of the super-regions over the 3 years It will have the greatest increase in population, increasing from 13.9 per cent of the NSW population in 21 to 14.7 per cent in 231. Within Coastal NSW Mid-North Coast will have the largest population increase, followed by Richmond-Tweed and South Eastern. The population is projected to increase in Inland NSW, although some areas are expected to decline over the first 1 years. This results in the Inland NSW share of the NSW population decreasing from 11.3 per cent in 21 to 9.4 per cent in 231. Far West, with the smallest population of any region in NSW, is the only region expected to continue to lose population. While most of NSW is growing, average annual growth is expected to slow. In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for NSW was 1.1 per cent. In the 2 years to 221 the average annual growth rate for NSW is expected to be.8 per cent. Share of Population Growth, NSW Super-regions, Other Major Urban NSW 9.% Coastal NSW 17.6% Sydney 71.7% Inland NSW & Far West 1.7% Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 2

8 Projected Population, NSW Super-Regions, ,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, Number 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Growth Year ending 3 June Sydney (SD) Other Major Urban Centres Coastal NSW Inland NSW & Far West Other than Far West, all other regions of NSW are projected to grow over the projections period. However, the rate at which each region s population grows is not consistent and is projected to diminish over time. This is due to the magnitude of change in fertility, mortality and migration and the size of the population. The larger a population, the greater the increments needed to sustain this growth. The regions within Coastal NSW are projected to have the greatest growth between 21 and 231. Illawarra Balance is projected to have the greatest growth of any region in NSW over the projections period (45 per cent). Over the next 2 years, the average annual rate of growth of Coastal NSW is expected to be 1. per cent. This rate has slowed markedly compared with an average rate of growth of 2.2 per cent for the region over the period. Sydney is expected to grow by 29.5 per cent over the next 3 years. In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Sydney was 1.2 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Sydney is expected to slow over the next 2 years, to.9 per cent. The Other Major Urban Centres of Wollongong and Newcastle are projected to grow by 21.8 per cent and 18.9 per cent respectively between 21 and 231. In terms of average annual growth, Wollongong and Newcastle had grown at an average of.8 per cent per year between 1981 and 21. In the 2 years, 21 to 221, average annual growth is expected to slow to.7 per cent. Inland NSW will grow between 21 and 231 but at lesser rate than Coastal NSW, Sydney and Other Major Urban Centres. Regions such as Northern and North Western are expected to experience population decline in the first ten years of the projections period, but then grow in the remainder of the period. Murray (8.5 per cent) is projected to have the largest growth within Inland NSW, while Northern is expected to grow the least (.5 per cent) over the 3 year period. The average annual rate of growth of Inland NSW between 1981 and 21 was.3 per cent. The projected annual average growth rate for Inland NSW between 21 and 221 is.13 per cent. 3 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

9 Far West is the only region in NSW to experience negative growth between 21 and 231. Far West s population will decline by 27.7 per cent in this period. This projected decline is a continuation of a 4 year downward trend. Since 1961, Far West region has been losing people to other parts of Australia. Age structure The population of NSW is projected to age in the 3 year projections period commencing 21. The proportion of the population aged less than 15 years is expected to be less in all regions by 231, while the proportion aged 65 years or more is expected to increase in all regions. The age distributions are markedly different for each of the five regions, reflecting the differences in fertility, mortality and migration. All regions, except Sydney, are projected to have a median age of 4 years and over in 231, compared with only three regions in 21. While Coastal NSW is projected to have the highest overall population growth rates, much of the growth will be due to in-migration in the older age groups. The population aged 65 years or more is projected to more than double between 21 and 231. Age and Sex Distribution, Coastal NSW, 21 and Age (years) , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, Male Female The Mid-North Coast is expected to have the highest proportion of the population aged 65 years or more in 231 (35 per cent). The other regions in Coastal NSW also have high proportions aged 65 years or above in 231, all above 3 per cent of their respective populations as a whole. While the population in the older age groups is projected to increase in Coastal NSW, the loss of young adults to other parts of Australia is projected to continue. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 4

10 Age and Sex Distribution, Inland NSW, 21 and Age (years) ,5 6, 4,5 3, 1,5 1,5 3, 4,5 6, 7,5 Male Female Inland NSW is expected to have the largest proportion of the population aged less than 15 years. While the population in this age group will have declined compared with 21, they will comprise 17 per cent of the population of Inland NSW in 231. Sydney is projected to have the youngest age structure by 231. While the population aged less than 15 years in Sydney is expected to decline at a lesser rate than elsewhere in NSW, it will also have the lowest proportion aged 65 years and over. Unlike other regions, Sydney is projected to increase its population in all age groups. Age and Sex Distribution, Sydney, 21 and Age (years) , 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

11 The age structure of the population of the Other Major Urban Centres of Wollongong and Newcastle is a little different. The Newcastle population tends to have an older age structure than the Wollongong population, and is projected to age at a faster rate than Wollongong (median age in 231 of 47.2 years). Wollongong will continue to have a younger age structure compared with other regions in NSW, having the third lowest median age (44.1 years) in 231. Age and Sex Distribution, Other Major Urban Centres of NSW, 21 and Age (years) Components of change 7,5 6, 4,5 3, 1,5 1,5 3, 4,5 6, 7,5 Male Growth in each region is dependent on the magnitude of change in each of the components of the population, births, deaths and migration. There are distinct differences in the way these components combine to influence population growth in each of the regions. Sydney is one of five regions that are projected to have more births than deaths over the 3 year period. It is anticipated that Sydney will grow by 869, due to natural increase over the 3 years to 231. Sydney is also the predominant recipient of overseas migrants in NSW. However, this is somewhat balanced by the fact that more people tend to leave Sydney for other NSW regions and interstate, than move into Sydney from elsewhere in Australia. The components of growth for Wollongong and Newcastle are quite different. Wollongong is projected to have more births than deaths over the period, while Newcastle is projected to have more deaths than births from It is expected that both regions will attract a similar number of overseas migrants each year (about 1,1 from 25-6). The internal migration profiles of each region are different. Newcastle is expected to gain anywhere between 6 and 1,7 migrants per year over the projections period. In contrast, Wollongong is expected to have no growth attributed to internal migration. In all regions of Coastal NSW the number of deaths will eventually exceed the number of births, a consequence of an increase in the size of the population in the older age groups. This phenomenon is expected to occur mid-way through the projections period in this region. Migration from other parts of Australia contributes more to population growth in the regions of Coastal NSW than overseas migration. Net internal migration is projected to increase for all regions within Coastal NSW over the period. While all regions in Coastal NSW gain people from other parts of Australia, the gain is mostly in the older age groups. The current loss of young adults from Coastal NSW to other regions is expected to continue. Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 6

12 In Inland NSW the impact of natural change is not as significant in the projections period as in Coastal NSW. In all regions of Inland NSW the number of births is expected to decline, while the number of deaths is projected to increase between 21 and 231. Deaths will exceed births in Central West (by 227) and Murray (by 224). Inland NSW is expected to attract only small numbers of overseas migrants each year. All regions of Inland NSW are expected to lose people to other parts of Australia, but the loss is expected to reduce over the projections period. For Central West and Murray, it is projected that there will be a net gain from internal migration after 215. Far West is the first region in NSW projected to have an excess of deaths over births, occurring from 25. It is not expected that Far West will attract many overseas migrants over the projections period (fewer than 2 people per annum). Far West will also continue to lose people to other parts of Australia, although this loss will diminish over the 3 year projections period. 7 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

13 Introduction Population projections are an essential input to the strategic infrastructure and service planning undertaken by government and the private sector. Projections are also used by a wide variety of other organisations across the State. DIPNR (Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources) and its predecessors have produced State and regional population projections on behalf of the NSW State Government for over 3 years. This current set of projections has been produced in consultation with the NSW Population Projections Group (PPG). The population projections in this report replace those for the period 1996 to 226 published by the Department of Urban Affairs and Planning in 1999 in Population Projections for NSW (preliminary). The projections have been produced using a multi-regional cohort component model. This model projects births, deaths, internal migration and overseas migration by single year of age, separately for males and females, for each region of the State. The population in a given year is the population in the previous year plus natural change (births minus deaths), net overseas migration (arrivals minus departures) and net internal migration (interstate and intrastate arrivals minus interstate and intrastate departures). The Methodology Section provides more information on the model. Projections have been produced for NSW, and the regions of Sydney, the Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR), Hunter (excluding Newcastle), Illawarra (excluding Wollongong), Richmond-Tweed, Mid-North Coast, Northern, North Western, Central West, South Eastern, Murrumbidgee, Murray, and Far West. A full description of the geography and the location of the regions can be found in Appendices B and C. The populations of NSW, Sydney and the GMR are projected for a 5 year period from 21 to 251. The populations of the other regions are projected for 3 years from 21 to 231. It is known that overseas migration has a large impact on Sydney s growth, and that this component fluctuates greatly over time. In order to account for the difficulties in projecting future levels of overseas migration accurately, three series of projections have been published for NSW, Sydney and the GMR. These are based upon high, medium and low assumptions of overseas migration. The high series assumes a net annual overseas migration to Australia of 125, from 25-6, the medium series 1, and the low series 7,. Population projections for other regions of NSW have been published based on the medium series assumptions as overseas migration has much less impact on regional populations outside Sydney. A number of other projections have been produced by DIPNR but not published in this report. Different assumptions have been made in order to show the effect on the results of a high, medium and low assumption for each component. The population projections published in this report are not predictions, forecasts or targets. Populations are projected using a set of assumptions. These assumptions have been developed using demographic techniques to assess change in different components of the population. Past trends and current patterns are analysed, and some judgement is used as to likely future demographic events. Changes in social policy, behaviour, or economics can have a significant effect on the direction of population change in the future. Consequently, it is not certain that these assumptions will hold for the projections period. For this reason DIPNR intends to update these population projections regularly, taking into account the latest available data. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 8

14 1. New South Wales Highlights In 21 the population of NSW was 6.57 million. In 251 the projected population of NSW will be between 8.4 million and 9.6 million. NSW is projected to reach 7 million by the end of 28 and 8 million by the beginning of 226. Between 21 and 211 NSW is projected to grow by more than half a million people (adding the equivalent of more than the population of Newcastle). NSW is growing due to overseas migration and natural increase (more births than deaths) but is losing people due to internal migration to other States in Australia. Population change over time The population of New South Wales (NSW) is projected to grow from 6.57 million in 21 to 9.5 million in 251 (under the medium series), an increase of 2.5 million or 37.7 per cent over 5 years. The population growth of NSW is projected to slow, compared with growth in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, NSW grew by some 1.34 million people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 1.16 million people to 7.73 million. Three projections series have been produced for NSW. Based on the low and high series assumptions, NSW could grow between 1.8 million and 3. million over the 5 years to 251. Figure 1.1 Actual and Projected Population, NSW, Number 1,, 9,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Year ending 3 June Low Medium High In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for NSW was 1.1 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth averaged 1.2 per cent. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be.9 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for NSW is expected to slow over the next 5 years. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to slow to.4 per cent. 9 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

15 Table 1.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, NSW, Projected population Average annual growth rate a Year ending Low series Medium series High series Low series Medium series High series 3 June Number Per cent 21 6,575,2 6,575,2 6,575,2 26 6,84,1 6,868,9 6,889, ,68,5 7,164,7 7,241, ,283,3 7,45,4 7,585, ,494,8 7,734,9 7,931, ,698,6 8,12,6 8,27, ,883,9 8,271,9 8,591, ,41,5 8,53,9 8,885, ,169,8 8,76,9 9,15, ,275,3 8,887,5 9,393, ,366,1 9,53,2 9,622, a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the overall NSW population is projected to grow, this is not reflected in all age groups. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 4.5 per cent by 221. After 221, the population aged less than 15 years is projected to grow by 3.9 per cent to total 1.33 million by 251. The number of people in the working age groups (15 to 64 years) will increase over the next 5 years, although making up a smaller proportion of the total population (59 per cent in 251 compared with 67 per cent in 21). The population of NSW will continue to age. By 251, the median age will have increased to 45.5 years. By 217, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 251, the population aged 65 years and over will have almost trebled to 2.36 million to comprise over one-quarter of the NSW population. Figure 1.2 Age and Sex Distribution, NSW, 21 and Age (years) , 45, 3, 15, 15, 3, 45, 6, Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 1

16 Table 1.2 Key Statistics Medium Series, NSW, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change NSW is projected to gain people through natural increase (more births than deaths) throughout the projections period. At the beginning of the projections period the contribution to population growth made by natural increase is almost the same as the contribution from net overseas migration. By the end of the projections period the level of natural increase will have decreased. The number of births in NSW is projected to remain fairly stable over the projected period at around 8, each year. The number of deaths is projected to increase from 46, to 78, per year over the 5 year projections period, due to the ageing population, even though it is anticipated that people will live longer. Net migration also impacts on the size of the NSW population. It is expected that NSW will continue to attract the largest proportion of overseas migrants to Australia. Net overseas migration is projected to be 42, per annum after NSW is expected to continue to have a net loss of people interstate, based on current trends. Currently the largest interstate migration flow from NSW is to Queensland. It is assumed the loss to other States and territories will range between 16, and 18, from The figures for net internal migration for NSW for the 21-2 and 22-3 years are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 1.3 Components of Change, NSW, 21-2 to , 8, Annual Demographic Events 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration 11 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

17 2. Sydney Highlights In 21 the population of Sydney was 4.13 million. By 251, it is projected that Sydney s population will be between 5.4 million and 6.4 million people. The population is expected to reach 5 million in 222. Sydney has the lowest current and projected fertility of any region in NSW. Sydney is one of five regions in NSW which maintains more births than deaths between 21 and 231. Population change over time The population of Sydney is projected to grow from 4.13 million in 21 to 5.93 million in 251, an increase of 1.8 million or 44 per cent over 5 years. Sydney s population increase over the next 2 years is projected to be similar to growth in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Sydney grew by about 85, people. Between 21 and 221, the population is expected to grow by 84, people to 4.97 million. Three projections series have been produced for Sydney. Based on the low and high series assumptions, Sydney could grow to anywhere between 5.43 million and 6.35 million over the 5 years to 251. Figure 2.1 Actual and Projected Population, Sydney, ,, 6,, Number 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Year ending 3 June Low Medium High In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Sydney was 1.2 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth also averaged 1.2 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Sydney is expected to slow over the next 5 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be 1. per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to.4 per cent. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 12

18 Table 2.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Sydney, Projected population Average annual growth rate a Year ending Low series Medium series High series Low series Medium series High series 3 June Number Per cent 21 4,128,3 4,128,3 4,128,3 26 4,31,5 4,335,3 4,353, ,473,7 4,554,2 4,618, ,625,7 4,762,2 4,873, ,773,2 4,965,4 5,122, ,914,6 5,161,5 5,364, ,44,8 5,345,3 5,592, ,16,1 5,513,2 5,84, ,26, 5,665,1 5,999, ,347,6 5,84,1 6,181, ,426,4 5,933,4 6,353, a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure As Sydney s population is projected to grow, the age distribution of the population is expected to change. By 251, the population aged less than 15 years is expected to grow by 1 per cent to 899,. However, it will make up a smaller proportion of the total population (15 per cent) in 251 than in 21 (2 per cent). The population in the working age groups (15 to 64 years) will increase by one-third over the next 5 years. Despite the growth, this group will make up a smaller proportion of the total population in 251 (63 per cent) than in 21 (68 per cent). Sydney s population will continue to age. The median age will increase 7.3 years over the 5 year period to 42.2 years, and will be younger than the State as a whole (45.5 years). By 227, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 251, the number of people in the older age groups (65 years and over) will have more than doubled to account for one in five Sydneysiders. Figure 2.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Sydney, 21 and Age (years) , 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

19 Table 2.2 Key Statistics Medium Series, Sydney, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change Sydney s population is growing naturally as more births than deaths are expected over the projections period. The number of births in Sydney is projected to increase slightly over the projected period to just over 6, per year. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, the number of deaths is projected to increase significantly after 225 due to the ageing population. By 251, it is expected that deaths will number more than 4, per year. Migration also impacts on the size of Sydney s population. It is expected that Sydney will continue to attract the major share of overseas migrants to NSW. Sydney is projected to have an annual net overseas migration component of 36,7. It is expected that Sydney will continue to have a net loss of people to other regions in NSW and interstate, based on current trends. Sydney currently loses large numbers of people to Queensland, the Illawarra (SD), Hunter (SD) and Mid-North Coast regions. This loss will increase over time from 19,8 in 25-6 to 33, in The internal migration figures for Sydney for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 2.3 Components of Change, Sydney, 21-2 to , 8, Annual Demographic Events 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 14

20 3. Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) Highlights In 21 the population of the GMR was 4.9 million. By 251, the population is projected to reach anywhere between 6.3 million and 7.4 million people. Sydney s population comprises over 8 per cent of the GMR population throughout the 5 year projections period. While the GMR population profile is influenced by Sydney, the GMR has a higher proportion of people aged 65 years or more. Geography The Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) includes the regions of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong. Sydney comprised the major share of the GMR population in 21 (84 per cent). By 251, Sydney will have increased its share of the GMR population to 86 per cent. See Appendix C for regional definitions. Population change over time The population of the GMR is projected to grow from 4.9 million in 21 to 6.9 million in 251, an increase of 2 million or 41 per cent over 5 years. In the next 2 years the GMR s population is projected to grow by about the same amount as in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, the GMR grew by about 98, people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 94, to 5.8 million people. Three projections series have been produced for the GMR (Figure 3.1). Based on the low and high series assumptions, the GMR could grow to between 6.3 million and 7.4 million over the 5 years to 251. In terms of its share, the GMR could account for anywhere between 75.8 per cent (based on low series populations) and 76.6 per cent (based on high series populations) of the NSW population. Figure 3.1 Actual and Projected Population, GMR, ,, 7,, 6,, Number 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Year ending 3 June Low Medium High In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for the GMR was 1.1 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for the GMR is expected to slow over the next 5 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be 1. per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to slow to.4 per cent. 15 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

21 Table 3.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, GMR, Projected population Average annual growth rate a Year ending Low series Medium series High series Low series Medium series High series 3 June Number Per cent 21 4,89,4 4,89,4 4,89,4 26 5,11,7 5,128,1 5,146, ,288,2 5,374,3 5,442, ,46,3 5,67,3 5,726, ,626,7 5,834,7 6,4, ,785,7 6,54,3 6,275, ,931,1 6,259,6 6,53, ,57,9 6,445,6 6,765, ,165,3 6,611,8 6,98, ,257,1 6,762, 7,179, ,337,9 6,9,8 7,367, a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the population of the GMR is projected to increase, growth will not be equally spread across all age groups. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to increase by 6 per cent over the next 5 years. However, it will decline slightly before increasing to 1.3 million by 251. Despite this overall growth, these young people will make up a smaller proportion of the population in 251 (15 per cent) than at present (2 per cent). The population of the GMR will continue to age. By 223, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 251, those aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled to 1.6 million and will make up 23 per cent of the total population (compared with 26 per cent of the NSW population). While the working age population (aged 15 to 64 years) is expected to grow by 29 per cent by 251, it is expected to make up a smaller proportion of the total population. This is largely due to the substantial increase in the number of people at older ages. Figure 3.2 Age and Sex Distribution, GMR, 21 and Age (years) , 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 16

22 Table 3.2 Key Statistics Medium Series, GMR, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change The GMR is growing naturally as there are more births than deaths over the projections period. The number of births in the GMR is projected to remain fairly stable over the projected period, averaging 67, per year. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, the number of deaths is projected to increase from 32,5 to 51,3 over the 5 year period, due to the ageing population. Migration also impacts on the size of the GMR population. It is expected that the GMR will continue to attract the major share of overseas migrants to NSW, as 87 per cent of all NSW overseas migrants go to Sydney. Net overseas migration is projected to be 39, per year after The GMR is expected to continue to have a net loss of people to other regions of NSW and other States and territories, based on current trends. It is assumed the loss will decline from -18,8 in 25-6 to -3,6 in The internal migration figures for the GMR for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 3.3 Components of Change, GMR, 21-2 to , 8, Annual Demographic Events 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration 17 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

23 4. Newcastle Highlights In 21 the population of Newcastle was 492,5. By 231, the population is projected to reach 585,9. Newcastle has the highest level of net overseas migration in NSW outside Sydney. Newcastle has positive net internal migration, which is expected to increase over the 3 year period. Deaths will outnumber births from Population projections for regions other than Sydney and the Greater Metropolitan Region are presented for a 3 year period. Population change over time The population of Newcastle is projected to grow from 492,5 in 21 to 585,9 in 231, an increase of 93,4 people or 19 per cent over 3 years. Newcastle s population growth is projected to slow somewhat, compared with growth in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Newcastle grew by 89, people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 66, people to 558,3. Figure 4.1 Actual and Projected Population, Newcastle, , 6, 5, Number 4, 3, 2, 1, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Newcastle was 1. per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth was higher, averaging 1.2 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Newcastle is expected to slow over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be.8 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to.5 per cent. This is less than the annual growth rate of.6 per cent for NSW over this period. Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 18

24 Table 4.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Newcastle, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent , , , , , , ,9.45 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While Newcastle s population is projected to grow, this will not be evenly spread across all age groups. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 13 per cent by 231 to total just over 88,. It will comprise 15 per cent of the total population compared with 2 per cent in 21. The Newcastle population will continue to age, at a faster rate than at the State level. The median age will increase by just over 1 years to 47.2 years in 231. By 212, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, those aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled to almost 162, and will comprise 28 per cent of the Newcastle population. Initial increases in the working age population (15 to 64 years) will be reversed after 221, resulting in a 5 per cent increase in this group between 21 and 231. This small increase along with the marked increase in the older age groups will increase the dependency ratio to 74 dependants per 1 working age population in 231. This is significantly higher than the dependency ratio for NSW in 231 (61 dependants per 1 working age population). Figure 4.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Newcastle, 21 and Age (years) , 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Male Female I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

25 Table 4.2 Key Statistics Newcastle, Statistic Persons less than 15 years (per cent) Persons 65 years and over (per cent) Median age (years) Dependency ratio a a The dependency ratio is the number of dependants (under 15 and over 64 years) per 1 of the population aged Components of change Until Newcastle grows through natural change with more births than deaths. From onwards there are more deaths than births resulting in negative natural change. The number of births in Newcastle is projected to remain fairly stable over the projected period at around 5,3 births each year. While it is anticipated that people will live longer, the number of deaths is projected to increase from 4, to 5,6 in 23-31, due to the ageing population. Net migration also impacts on the size of the Newcastle population. By , Newcastle is expected to gain more from migrants moving from other areas within Australia, than from overseas. Newcastle currently attracts large numbers of migrants, particularly in the older age groups, from other parts of NSW. The region is expected to continue to have a net gain of over 1, overseas migrants a year, while the net gain from the number of internal migrants is expected to increase to 1,7 a year by The internal migration figures for Newcastle for 21-2 are based on the most recently available estimated resident population (ERP) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimates for internal migration for 22-3 are known at State level and are apportioned to each of the regions based on their share of the State population. The net internal migration loss for these two years is unusually large based on historic trends and is not expected to be sustained in the longer term. Figure 4.3 Components of Change, Newcastle, 21-2 to , 6, Annual Demographic Events 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Financial Year Births Deaths Net internal migration Net overseas migration Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 2

26 5. Wollongong Highlights In 21 the population of Wollongong was 269,6. By 231, the population is projected to reach 328,4. Wollongong is the only region in NSW projected to grow by more people in the next 2 years, compared with the previous 2 years. From 29-1 it is expected that overseas migration will be the main contributor to population growth. Population change over time The population of Wollongong is projected to grow from 269,6 in 21 to 328,4 in 231, an increase of 58,8 or 22 per cent over 3 years. Wollongong s population growth is projected to be slightly more in the next 2 years than in the previous 2 years. Between 1981 and 21, Wollongong grew by some 38,2 people. By 221, the population is expected to grow by 41,4 people to 311,. Figure 5.1 Actual and Projected Population, Wollongong, , 33, 3, 27, Number 24, 21, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Year ending 3 June In the 2 year period the average annual growth rate for Wollongong was.8 per cent. Between 1996 and 21 annual growth was higher, at an average of 1.1 per cent. The average annual rate of growth for Wollongong is expected to slow over the next 3 years. The annual rate of change between 21 and 26 is projected to be.8 per cent. By the period , the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to.5 per cent. 21 I Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre

27 Table 5.1 Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, Wollongong, Year ending Projected population Average annual growth rate a 3 June Number Per cent , , , , , , ,4.52 a Growth rates are an annual average of the 5-year period ending at the year shown in the first column. Age structure While the population of Wollongong is projected to grow, this will not be evenly distributed across all age groups. The population aged less than 15 years is expected to decline by 7 per cent by 231 to 51,9. The proportion of those aged less than 15 years in Wollongong (16 per cent) will be higher than the proportion State-wide (15 per cent) at the end of the projections period. The Wollongong population will continue to age. By 215, the number of people aged 65 years or more will outnumber those aged less than 15 years. By 231, those aged 65 years and over will have more than doubled to almost 81, and will comprise one-quarter of the total Wollongong population which is significantly higher than the proportion of the NSW population aged 65 years or more in 231 (22 per cent). Despite an 11 per cent increase in the working age population (15 to 64 years) over the next 3 years, this group will make up a slightly smaller proportion of the population in 231 (6 per cent) than in 21 (66 per cent). Figure 5.2 Age and Sex Distribution, Wollongong, 21 and Age (years) ,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 Male Female Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. Transport and Population Data Centre I 22