Population Issues in sub- Saharan Africa. John Cleland Oct 2011

Transcription

1 Population Issues in sub- Saharan Africa John Cleland Oct 2011

2 OUTLINE WHAT is happening to fertility & population growth? Why is fertility still so high? WHY does it matter? HOW can action most effectively be taken?

3 Fertility Trends, : Selected Developing Regions

4 Population Growth, , by region Population Size (Millions) Absolute Change (Millions) Percent change Region Europe Northern America Asia 4,164 5, Latin America/Caribbean Oceania North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 856 1, World 6,896 9,306 2,410 35

5 DISTRIBUTION OF 76 LOW AND LOWER-MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES BY RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH AND UNMET NEED FOR FP Unmet Need Population Growth Low (<10%) Medium (10-19%) High (20%+) High (2%+pa) Medium ( %) Low (<1.0%) 6 5 3

6 Countries with Fertility above Four Births, Sub-Saharan Africa: 35 countries Asia: Afghanistan, Yemen, Occ. Palestine, Iraq, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea Latin America: Guatemala, Haiti

7 African Fertility Trends (Past & Projected)

8 Fertility trends in Tanzania 9 Partial TFR (15-39), Tanzania, partial TFR(15-39) year TZDHS1992 TZDHS1996 TZDHS1999 TZDHS2005 lowess smoothing

9 Fertility trends in Nigeria 9 Partial TFR (15-39), Nigeria, partial TFR(15-39) year NGDHS1990 NGDHS1999 NGDHS2003 NGDHS2008 lowess smoothing

10 The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility has a major impact on its ultimate population size Nigeria Population (millions) Total fertility rate: 4.79 (2010) Unmet need for family planning: 5.1% (2003) Population Reference Bureau

11 Trends in % of women who are currently using Modern FP method West Africa(13) East Southern Africa(11) % currently using modern FP [1991] [2004] [1992] [2004] Results are for fecund, currently married or co-habiting women (standardized by education and residence)

12 Synthesis Pace of reproductive change much faster in East/Southern Africa and the divide between the 2 sub-regions is widening Both access and attitude represent severe barriers in West Africa with less than 40% reporting access and positive attitude In West Africa between 1991 and 2004, the median increase in modern method use was so modest (0.6 percent points pa) that even the 2010 UN medium fertility projections look optimistic NB Abortion illegal and often unsafe

13 Why is fertility transition so fragile? High mortality/low s-e development Traditionally high demand for children (infectious disease mortality + ethnic conflict) Features of African family systems Lack of emphasis on population programmes

14 WHY DOES IT MATTER?

15 Nexus of Population, Food, Water and Environment in SSA African agricultural output has barely kept pace with population though this sector accounts for 60%+ employment; yields per hectare static In 2000, $20 billion of food imported; more recent estimates are $33 billion Imports account for 50%+ of grain supplies in 11 countries and 30-50% in 7 countries Inter-country potential for increased production ranges widely

16 Continued Countries with low potential will be vulnerable to Increased/volatile international grain prices: poor in food-deficit countries will suffer most 70% African farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture; potential disaster if CO2-related change results in less/erratic rainfall Broad consensus that tropical agriculture is most vulnerable to temperature rise

17 Continued Africa is sole region with projected rural pop increase Unless major changes in productivity and/or determined local conservation efforts, unsustainable over-use of marginal land will result Scandalous neglect of agriculture is top priority but pop stabilisation is important part of solution For some states mass migration appears likely

18 Urbanisation without industrialisation 70% of current urban population lives in slums Urban population projected to double in next 20 years Severe challenge of radical improvements to infrastructure under such a rapid pace of change

19 HOW CAN ACTION BE EFFECTIVELY TAKEN? Key lesson from Asia: No poor and uneducated country has experienced sustained fertility decline in absence of strong FP programme with top political support and adequate international funding Demand mobilisation (mass media + community-level) Improve access (esp. West Africa)

20 Kenya: Changes in Reproductive Indicators: Example of Success Mean desired family size % wanting no more children 16% N/A 49% 52% % contracepting 7% 17% 27% 33% Fertility rate

21 Rwanda: Recent Example of Success Contraceptive prevalence: % 2010: 45% Total fertility rate:

22 Conclusions Slow faltering fertility decline likely to continue in absence of govt. interventions But in presence of determined govt. interventions, the pace of change may surprise us all Residual (intractable?) problem of least developed countries with fragile governments/civil strife (Somalia, DRC, Niger etc)