Tanzania: Population, Reproductive Health & Development. Photo credits: IFAD / Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman and USAID.

Transcription

1 Tanzania: Population, Reproductive Health & Development Photo credits: IFAD / Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman and USAID.

2 Hosted by the Government Population Planning Section President s s Office, Planning Commission 2

3 Outline I. The Tanzanian Vision II. Population Characteristics and Projections III. Population, Economic Development, and Poverty Reduction IV. Impact of Rapid Population Growth on Social and Economic Development V. Policy Response 3

4 Outline I. The Tanzanian Vision II. Population Characteristics and Projections III. Population, Economic Development, and Poverty Reduction IV. Impact of Rapid Population Growth on Social and Economic Development V. Policy Response 4

5 Tanzania Development Vision 2025 To achieve a high-quality livelihood for the people, attain good governance through the rule of law, and develop a strong and competitive economy. 5

6 What is the importance of population factors to the ability of Tanzania to achieve its national vision in coming decades? 6

7 Outline I. The Tanzanian Vision II. Population Characteristics and Projections III. Population, Economic Development, and Poverty Reduction IV. Impact of Rapid Population Growth on Social and Economic Development V. Policy Response 7

8 Tanzania Mainland Population, Million 8

9 Tanzania Mainland: Actual & Projected Population, Millions of people Year 9

10 Fertility Rate Tanzania s fertility rate is 5.7 children per woman Photo credit: USAID. 10

11 Tanzania continues to have high fertility... Fertility rate (average number of children per woman) Year 11

12 Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low... Modern contraceptive use (% married women of reproductive age) Year 12

13 A large unmet need for family planning already exists... Unmet need 22% 22% of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception 13

14 Tanzania has a young population Age in years Male Female -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percent of the population 14

15 Tanzania has a young population Age in years Male Female Child dependants under the age of 15-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percent of the population 15

16 Today s children will soon be in their reproductive years... Age in years Male Female Child dependants under the age of 15-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percent of the population 16

17 The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS Without AIDS With AIDS 95.4 Millions of people Year 17

18 Projections use different assumptions about fertility... Fertility rate (avg. number of children per woman) High fertility Declining fertility Year 18

19 Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility High fertility Declining fertility 86.6 Millions of people Year 19

20 Outline I. The Tanzanian Vision II. Population Characteristics and Projections III. Population, Economic Development, and Poverty Reduction IV. Impact of Rapid Population Growth on Social and Economic Development V. Policy Response 20

21 Recent analyses have summarized state-of of-the-art thinking on relationships between population growth and economic development... Results of analyses 21

22 Two Major Messages... Photo credit: USAID / M. Douglas. 1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth. 2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families. Source: Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. 22

23 Slower population growth Slower population growth has encouraged overall economic growth in developing countries... Source: UNPFA. State of World Population

24 Continued high rates of population growth have not contributed to economic growth or poverty alleviation in high fertility African countries... 24

25 We need to learn from the East Asian countries the best ways of achieving fast economic growth. 25

26 The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development 26

27 Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation... GDP Per Capita (constant 2000 US$) 1,600 1,427 1,400 1, , Year 27 Source: World Bank Development Indicators.

28 Thai fertility moved from high to low levels... Fertility rate (avg. number of children per woman) Year 28 Source: World Bank Development Indicators.

29 Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic miracle... Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers More and better educational opportunities More investment in modern agriculture Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios 29

30 Tanzania aspires to become aa strong middle-income income economy in Africa

31 Outline I. The Tanzanian Vision II. Population Characteristics and Projections III. Population, Economic Development, and Poverty Reduction IV. Impact of Rapid Population Growth on Social and Economic Development V. Policy Response 31

32 Population affects social and economic development in Tanzania Education Health Urbanization The Economy Agriculture Environment 32

33 Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions 100 High fertility Declining fertility 86.6 Millions of people Year 33

34 Tanzania Education Sector Photo credit: Worldviewimages.com 34

35 Primary School Enrollment, Number of primary school students (in millions) High fertility Declining fertility Year 35

36 Primary Teachers Required, Number of primary teachers in thousands) ( High fertility Declining fertility Year 36

37 Primary Schools Required, Number of primary schools (in thousands) High fertility 14.3 Declining fertility Year 37

38 Expenditures on Primary School Education, (Tshs billions) Primary school education expenditures (in billions of Tshs) High fertility 549 Cumulative savings Tshs2.3 trillion 454 Declining fertility Year

39 Tanzania Health Sector Photo credit: IFAD / Christine Nesbitt. 39

40 Health Dispensaries Required, Number of health dispensaries 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 High fertility Declining fertility 17,310 13,200 10,740 9,540 4, Year 40

41 Nurses Required, Number of nurses (in thousands) High fertility Declining fertility Year 41

42 Annual Health Expenditures, Annual health expenditures (in millions of US$) 1,200 1, High fertility Declining fertility ,039 Cumulative savings US$2.2 billion 792 Year 42

43 Birth spacing improves child health Infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births) <2 years 2 3 years 3 4 years 4 years + Previous birth interval 43

44 Adolescent childbearing is high... Percentage who are mothers or pregnant for first time Pregnant with first child Had a live birth Age of female adolescent in years 44

45 Tanzania Urbanization Photo credit: 2005 Alfredo L. Fort, Courtesy of Photoshare. 45

46 Historic Growth of the Urban Population, Urban population (in millions) Year 46

47 Size of the urban population, Number of people (in millions) High fertility Declining fertility Year 47

48 New Urban Housing Units Required New urban housing units (in millions) 10 High fertility Declining fertility Time period 48

49 Tanzania Economy && Labor Force Photo credit: European Community. 49

50 Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita, Average annual percent growth GDP GDP per capita Time period

51 Projected GDP per capita, (assumes an 8% economic growth rate per annum) 2,500 GDP per capita (Tshs 000s) 2,000 1,500 1, High fertility Declining fertility 1,469 1, Year 51

52 Projected GDP per capita, ,500 GDP per capita (in US$ ) 2,000 1,500 1,000 minimum threshold of middle-income economy status US$ Year 52

53 Projected GDP per capita, (assumes an 8% economic growth rate per annum) 2,500 High fertility Declining fertility GDP per capita (in US$ ) 2,000 1,500 1, ,775 1,354 US$ Year 53

54 Projected GDP per capita, (assumes a 6% economic growth rate per annum) 2,500 High fertility Declining fertility GDP per capita (in US$ ) 2,000 1,500 1, , US$ Year 54

55 Composition of the Labor Force Agriculture, 81.0% Informal, 9.0% Private Sector, 4.0% Housework, 3.6% Public Sector, 2.4% 55

56 Annual New Job Requirements, New jobs required (in thousands) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, High fertility Declining fertility 1,468 1, Year 56

57 Tanzania Agriculture Sector Photo credits: USAID and IFAD / Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman 57

58 Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision Photo credit: USAID / W. Creighton/DAI. 58

59 Land Use Environmental Constraints Low soil suitability Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk Steep slopes and mountains Severe and very severe land degradation Low to medium climatic production potential High climatic production potential 59

60 Rapid population growth works against modernization... High rate of population growth has resulted in overexploitation, deforestation, erosion, loss of soil fertility, and a fall in productivity Photo credit: Dan L. Perlman, Ecolibrary.org. 60

61 Food Production Required, High fertility Declining fertility 32.4 Food production (million tonnes) Year 61

62 Maize Production Required, Maize production (million tonnes) High fertility Declining fertility Year 62

63 Tanzania Environment Photo credit: USAID / R. Strickland. 63

64 Woodfuel Consumption, Woodfuel consumption (million m 3 ) High fertility Declining fertility Year 64

65 Outline I. The Tanzanian Vision II. Population Characteristics and Projections III. Population, Economic Development, and Poverty Reduction IV. Impact of Rapid Population Growth on Social and Economic Development V. Policy Response 65

66 Fertility Rate Tanzania s fertility rate is 5.7 children per woman Photo credit: USAID. 66

67 A large unmet need for family planning already exists... Unmet need 22% 22% of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception 67

68 To satisfy unmet need, a realistic strategy is to ensure that all Tanzanian couples who want to space or limit their births have access to high-quality reproductive health services, including a range of family planning methods consistently available and accessible Photo Credit: IFAD / Robert Grossman. 68

69 Improving access to and use of quality family planning services will help satisfy unmet need resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growth thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision 69

70 Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive commodities 70

71 Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy Sustained donor support Increased civil society/faith-based participation Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information, education, and communication (IEC) for potential users 71

72 Good demographic outcomes depend on good policies. Successful action depends above all on empowering individuals and couples to make free choices Source: UNPFA. State of World Population 2002

73 The big question for national leaders and decisionmakers is whether to make the necessary changes in policy and practice Source: UNPFA. State of World Population 2002

74 Acknowledgments The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID Health Policy Initiative, Task Order 1, which is implemented by the Futures Group International, in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA), White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA), and Futures Institute. The full report is available at: 348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_acc.pdf 74