Mobilität der Zukunft- Schlüsselfaktoren und Chancen Future Mobility- Keyfactors and Chances e-mobil BW Technologietag 2. Oktober 2013, Stuttgart Dr. Ulrich Eichhorn Geschäftsführer - Managing Director
Why Mobility? Mobility is a basic requirement and basic right of humans Mobility is clearly and strongly correlated to wealth and economic performance GDP [B ] 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 GDP Germany 1970-2010 0 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 s [Bkm] Seite 2
Mobility as a System Inputs Energy Area Resources. Mobility Side-Effects Emissions Accidents.. Effects Economic Social Personal.. Seite 3
Passenger and Goods Traffic in Germany Seite 4
1.400 Traffic in Germany until 2025 1.200 1.000 169% Luftverkehr Air traffic [B. Pkm] 800 600 400 200 0 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2025 (Source: DiW, BMVBS, BVU/DLR/ISL) Eisenbahn Railroad Öffentlicher Public transport Straßenpersonen verkehr Pkw-Verkehr Passenger car Seite 5
Goods traffic in Germany until 2025 [B. tkm] 1000 900 800 700 600 227% Binnenschiff Barge 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2025 (Source: DiW, BMVBS, BVU/DLR/ISL) Bahnen Trains Lkw Commercial vehicle Seite 6
The story so far Then Now Particulate matter: old and newer passenger vehicle Seite 7
"Smog"- Catastrophe in London 1952 Nelson-column in London 1952 Nelson-column in London 2012 Seite 8
"Smog" in Los Angeles 1956 Smog in Los Angeles 1956 Los Angeles Skyline 2009 Seite 9
"Smog" in Peking 2005 Beijing Seite 10
Achievments over the years 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Basis 2012 Dr.-Ing. Ulrich Eichhorn, VDA Seite 11
Challenges & Chances Vision Zero PM & NO2 Safety Emissions CO2 Mobility Efficiency Partners Networking Energy Petrol/Diesel Car2X Car2Car Electricity CNG Seite 12
Which is the right way? Seite 13
The fan-strategy of the German automotive industry Source: VDA Seite 14
Potentials for CO 2 -Savings: Seite 15
Electric Mobility What is that? Scope of Electric Mobility according to NPE i.e. re-chargeable from grid Plug-in Hybrid / PHEV Range Extender / REEV Battery EV / BEV Full Hybrid / HEV Mild Hybrid / HEV Start/Stop Seite 16
Future Drive Trains Tailored solutions on the market: Long distance Interurban City Internal Combustion Engine Hybridisation Plug-in/ range Extender Battery electric Fuel Cell Quelle: Daimler AG Seite 17
Die Anfänge.. Dr.-Ing. Ulrich Eichhorn, VDA Total Cost of Ownership Risiko oder Chance für die Elektromobilität? Seite 18
Audi A3 e-tron Porsche Panamera Sport Tourismo Opel Ampera BMWi3 Smart fortwo electric drive Ford C- MAX VW e-up VW e-golf Dr.-Ing. Ulrich Eichhorn, VDA Elektromobilität heute - Zwischenbilanz auf dem Weg zur Marktdurchdringung Seite 19
Networking & Communication Smartphone on Wheels? Seite 20
Car2X-Communication Car2X- Communication between traffic lights, Roadside-Units and vehicles Source: Vogel Business Media Danger Warning Message warn all vehicles for upcoming obstacles on the road Source: simtd Page Seite 21
sim TD Sichere Intelligente Mobilität Testfeld Deutschland Obstacle Warning Traffic Light Phase Assistant Traffic Light Circuit Car-to-Car- Communication Road Weather Warning Location based Services Building Lot Informationen Emergency Vehicle Warning Traffic Sign Assistant Electronic Brake lights Seite 22
Mobility Concepts: Car-Sharing & Intermodality 24.09.2013 VDA PowerPoint Page Seite 23
Chances & Remaining Challenges Inputs Energy: Fuels & Drive for the Future Mobility Side-Effects Particulates & NO 2 Accidents Remaining Accidents CO 2 Congestion Value Mobility Concepts Networking Seite 24
Mobility as a System: Goal-Scenario Inputs Energy Area Resources. Mobility Side-Effects Nutzen Economic Social Personal.. Seite 25
Summary Many former problems are solved with the latest generations of cars Areas for further progress are Last remaining pollutants CO 2 -Reduction Sustainable Energy-Sources for Transport Networking and Car2X Communication Mobility Concepts Seite 26
Visions! and my own! Seite 27
Not a Conflict! and my own! Seite 28