Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center Current fuel quality and vehicle emission standards - challenges and opportunities in Asia Glynda Bathan Policy and Partnership Manager Regional Workshop on Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles for Regional Workshop on Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles for East Asia
Outline Status in Asia I. Air Quality II. Transport III. Emissions from Transport Status of Vehicle Emission Standard Status of Fuel Quality Challenges and Opportunities 2
1a. Urban Air Pollution Trends in Asia 1993-2007 Source: CAI-Asia, 2008 Aggregated Annual Ambient AQ Trends, μg/m 3 (1993 to 2007) 3
1b. Urban Air Pollution Status in Asia - PM Kanpur Lanzhou Lucknow 220 200 PM 10 Levels in Asian Cities Agra Ahmedabad Fuzhou Guangzhou Guiyang Hong Kong Hyderabad Incheon(2007) Changchun Changsha Chengdu Chongqing Hangzhou Harbin Hefei Kunming Mumbai Nanchang Patna Seoul (2007) Shanghai Hohhot Jinan Nanjing Varanasi Jodhpur Beijing Dhaka Faridabad Kathmandu (2007) Kolkata New Delhi Pune Shenyang Solapur Tianjin Wuhan Xi'an Yinchuan Zhengzhou Xining Shijiazhuang Taiyuan Urumqi 180 160 140 120 100 µg/m 3 Ba ngalore Bangkok (2007) Haikou Singapore Busan (2007) Chennai Colombo Ho Chi Minh Lhasa Nanning 4 80 60 40 20 0 WHO (2005) PM 10 Guideline 20 µg/m 3
2. Increasing Motorization and Vehicle Growth 450 800 total number of ve ehicles (in m illions) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 motorizat tion index 0 200520152025203520052015202520352005201520252035200520152025203520052015202520352005201520252035 0 ASEAN(Major Countries) CHINA INDIA OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Total Vehicles (in millions) Motorization Index (V/1000 P) Source: 2008. ADB, CAI-Asia, Segment Y Ltd., and IEA
3a. CO 2 Emissions in Asia Road Transport 7000 6000 Vietnam Philippines Thailand sions (Mill lion Tons) CO 2 Emis 5000 Indonesia India 4000 China Srilanka 3000 Nepal Malaysia 2000 South Korea Bangladesh 1000 Singapore 0 Pakistan 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 Years Source: 2008. ADB, CAI-Asia, and Segment Y Ltd
3b. PM Emissions in Asia Road Transport 700 650 600 PM Emissions (1000 Tons ) 550 500 450 Vietnam 400 Philippines 350 Thailand 300 Indonesia India 250 China 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 Source: 2008. ADB, CAI-Asia, and Segment Y Ltd.
4. Emission Standards New Light-Duty Vehicles 8 Country 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0 9 10 11 12 13 14 European Union E1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 Bangladesh a Euro 2 Bangladesh b Euro 1 Hong Kong, China Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 India c Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 India d E1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Indonesia Euro 2 Malaysia Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4 Nepal Euro 1 Pakistan No conclusive information available Philippines Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4 PRC a Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 PRC e Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Beijing only Singapore a Euro 1 Euro 2 Singapore b Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4 Sri Lanka Euro 1 Euro 2 f South Korea Euro 4 Euro 5 Taipei, US Tier 1 US Tier 2 Bin 7 g Thailand Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Viet Nam Euro 2 Source: CAI-Asia. 2008, Emission standards for new vehicles (light duty). Available: http:///1412/articles-58969_resource_1.pdf
5. Fuel Quality Standards (levels of sulfur in diesel) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Bangladesh 5000 Cambodia 2000 1500 Hong Kong, 500 50 10 a India (nationwide) 5000 2500 500 350 India (metros) 5000 2500 500 350 a 50 a Indonesia 5000 3500 350 Japan b 500 50 10 Malaysia 5000 3000 500 c 500 d 50a Pakistan 10000 7000 c Philippines 5000 2000 500 PRC (nationwide) e,f 5000 2000 2000 & 500 PRC - Beijing 5000 2000 500 350 50 Singapore 3000 500 50 South Korea 500 430 100 30 15(10) f Sri Lanka 10000 5000 d 500 Ti Taipei, i 3000 500 350 100 50 Thailand 2500 500 350 150 50 Viet Nam 10000 500 European Union 500 50(10) f 10 United Statest 500 15 Source: CAI-Asia, 2008 > 500 ppm 51 500 < 50 ppm ppm
6. Rationale for Road Map for Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles in Asia www.cleanairnet.org/fuelroadmap Urban Air Quality continues to be an important problem and mobile sources are an important part of the problem Asian countries do not all have medium term fuel quality strategies Capacity to regulate fuels is under-developed in several countries, especially those which lack medium term strategies Link the expertise of oil industry to produce high quality transportation fuel to complement ongoing efforts by different stakeholders to improve air quality management in Asia
7. Challenges & Opportunities Institutions political will & commitment Stakeholders buy-in negative lobbying sometimes from local vehicle manufacturers Fuel subsidy Cost to refinery and cost to consumers Adulteration
8 a. Case of Philippines National EST Strategy Cluster 2: Strengthening th DOTC, DENR-EMB, EMB LGU, Roadside Roadside Air Quality MO, DOST-PNRI, etc. Pollution Monitoring and Assessment; Source: DOTC 2009 12 Traffic Noise Management; Vehicle Emission Control, Standards and Inspection & Maintenance; DENR-EMB, DOTC, LGU, DOLE-OSHC, etc. DOTC-LTO-LTFRB, DENR- EMB, DOF, BOI, DTI-BPS- BIS,TESDA, ECAP, MMASBA, UP-ME, DOE- OIMB, Public Transport Groups, etc. Cleaner Fuels DOE-OIMB, DTI-BPS, DOST- PCIERD, DOTC, DENR-EMB, DOE-EUMB, Public Transport Groups, etc.
8 b. Case of Philippines Vehicle standards 60 PM EMISSIONS (BAU) EURO IV in 2012 1800 PM EMISSIONS (with PRE EURO EURO No improvement scenario) PM EM MISSIONS/YEA AR (000Tons) 50 40 30 20 10 HCV LCV PC MC three MC two ISSIONS/YEAR (000Tons) PM EM 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 HCV LCV PC MC three MC two 200 0 2005 2008 2015 2025 0 2005 2008 2015 2025 Moving quickly from Pre-Euro to Euro-II has significantly reduced emissions. But government should leapfrog to Euro-IV and V as soon as possible. 13
9. Fuel Subsidy & Economic benefits of Clean Fuel Diesel/Gasoline Price (Ratio) 2004 2006 2007 2008 November Bangladesh 0.58 0.57 0.59 0.6 China 09 0.9 088 0.88 102 1.02 India 0.71 0.74 0.71 0.64 Indonesia 0.67 0.77 0.84 Malaysia 0.59 0.75 0 1 Nepal 0.68 0.78 0.75 0.73 Pakistan 0.66 0.63 0.7 0.92 Philippines 0.65 0.88 0.87 0.89 Singapore 0.62 0.68 0.84 Sri Lanka 0.57 0.63 0.52 Thailand 0.69 0.93 0.74 Vietnam 0.67 0.79 0.96 Government Subsidy ( in BILLION USD) Country 2006 2007 2008 (P) Bangladesh 0.81 0.73 1.50 China 0.68 NA 1.79 India 0.64 0.74 17.50 Indonesia 5.90 9.31 19.60 Malaysia 4.00 4.70 10.83 Nepal NA NA 0.30 Pakistan NA 2.70 6.90 Philippines NA NA NA Singapore NA NA NA Sri Lanka 0.09 0.15 0.28 Thailand NA NA NA Vietnam 0.61 0.73 3.20 decouple fuel prices with politics fuel subsidies hamper introduction of clean fuels The economic benefits of an integrated system of clean fuels and vehicles far outweigh the costs. The estimated benefit cost ratios of these programs are 15:1 in the United States, and 20:1 in the PRC Source: Various, 2009 14
10. Case of Indonesia - Fuel Quality Monitoring Report 2007 MOE carried out fuel quality monitoring in gasoline as well as diesel fuel from public gas stations in 30 cities. The gasoline fuel quality sold in Indonesia in 2007 shows an improvement. (average lead content monitored was 0.007 g/l < 0.013g/l). For Diesel fuel quality, the average sulfur content is 2156 ppm > EURO 2 standard < national standard. Several cities with sulfur content above the required standards of 3500 ppm are Bandar Lampung (3950 ppm), Jayapura (3600 ppm), Manado (3775 ppm), etc. Source: Linda Krisnawati, Ministry of Environment, Indonesia, BAQ 2008 15
11. Case of Thailand Diesel Project Intervention CNG Conversion of Buses Diesel Particle Filters Assumptions Pollutant Reduction Cost Tons/million USD Tons % BAU USD (million) (ration) 2000 Buses are converted 362 1.50% 200 1.8 For all diesel vehicles; 90% reduction in direct PM emissions; including low sulfur diesel 18406 61.00% 852 21.6 Congestion Pricing Inspection and Maintainence & Preventive Maintainance Mass Rapid Transport Bus Rapid Transit 5% reduction in person VKT and 5% increase in VKT of bus 10% reduction in deterioration rates of emission factors & 25% reduction in Bus PM emissions 200 km of rail MRT ; 5% shift from auto to 3.5% MRT, 1% to Bus, 0.5% Walk 100 km of rail and 100 km of bus rapid transport; 5% shift to MRT and BRT;half from autos/taxis/buses 604 2.42% 200 3 3803 15.30% 102 37.28 535 2.20% 7000 0.1 312 1.30% 2000 0.2 16 Walking 1% shift in VKT from Cars and Buses 95 0.40% 50 1.9 Traffic Management 1mph increase in average speed 521 2.10% 80 6.5 Source: Adopted from Jitu Shah, World Bank, Bangkok, Thailand, http:///1412/article-48845.html
17 Sophie Punte, Executive Director sophie.punte@cai-asia.org Glynda Bathan, Policy & Partnerships Manager glynda.bathan@cai-asia.org Bert Fabian, Transport Program Manager bert.fabian@cai-asia.org Sudhir Gota, Transport Specialist sudhir@cai-asia.org Unit 3510, 35 th Floor, Robinsons-Equitable Tower, ADB Avenue, Pasig City, Metro Manila, 1605 Philippines