Future Technology for Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars 2015-2025 How all components and structure will change completely Dr Peter Harrop, Franco Gonzalez and Raghu Das IDTechEx www.idtechex.com
Contents Page 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1 1.1. The market for electric cars 1 1.1.1. Definitions 1 1.1.2. Cars as part of the big picture 2 1.1.3. Further details of e-car trends 2 1.1.4. League table of top 13 electric vehicle companies 5 1.1.5. Awkward tipping point 6 1.1.6. Forecasting challenges 7 1.2. Forecasts 2014-2025 8 1.2.1. On-road cars 8 1.2.2. Geographical demand 11 1.2.3. US market in 2014 14 1.2.4. Europe and Japan 15 1.2.5. China 17 1.2.6. Successful strategies 18 1.2.7. Plug-in market dynamics 20 1.2.8. Security of forecasts 21 1.2.9. New models as lead indicator 21 1.2.10. MicroEVs/quadricycles etc 21 1.2.11. Golf cars will have no growth 24 1.2.12. Profitability 25 1.2.13. Why there will be a tipping point for pure electric cars 25 1.3. Disruptive change and merging of all parts 26 1.4. Range extenders including fuel cells 28 1.5. Batteries 29 1.6. Electric motors 32 1.7. Power electronics 33 1.7.1. Increased performance and complexity 33 1.7.2. Wide band gap semiconductors 35 1.8. Supercapacitors: more than meets the eye 37 1.8.1. Across batteries in cars 37 1.8.2. Completely replacing batteries in hybrid cars 39 1.8.3. Across fuel cells in cars 40 1.9. Plugging in: when, where, why? 40 1.10. Progress of Toyota and Tesla 41 1.10.1. Market and technology priorities 41 1.10.2. Toyota simplifies priorities and Tesla lands Gigafactory partnership 42
2. INTRODUCTION 47 2.1. The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out 47 2.2. Danger signs 48 2.3. Government support 49 2.4. Rapid increase in number of manufacturers 50 2.5. Can the grid cope? 51 2.6. Changing mobility needs urban mobility 52 2.7. Fuel cell mobility 53 2.8. How green are fuel cell cars really? 54 2.9. Global Markets, the battery vs fuel cell war will be fought in China and the USA 58 2.10. Gigafactory 60 2.11. New forms of collaborative consumption car sharing or car clubs 61 2.12. Narrow Vehicles 64 3. PURE ELECTRIC CARS 79 3.1. Consumer attitudes to electric vehicles 80 3.2. The car powertrain as a portfolio of technologies 84 3.3. Evolution of the value chain structure the opportunity window 85 3.4. Manufacturing 89 3.5. The arguments against 94 3.6. Déjà vu 95 3.7. Golf EVs 98 3.8. Energy positive solar car 100 4. HYBRID CARS OVERVIEW 101 4.1. Construction and advantages of hybrids 101 4.2. Evolution 101 4.3. Market drivers 102 4.3.1. Leading indicators 102 4.4. Interesting new technology in recent concept cars 104 4.4.1. Subaru's Viziv 2 Concept 104 4.4.2. Toyota Supercapacitor Yaris 106 4.5. Examples of 2015 hybrid car launches 107 5. HYBRID CAR MODES AND TECHNOLOGY 109 5.1. Series vs parallel hybrid 109 5.2. Modes of operation of hybrids 110 5.2.1. Plug in hybrids 110 5.2.2. Charge-depleting mode 111 5.2.3. Blended mode 111 5.2.4. Charge-sustaining mode 111 5.2.5. Mixed mode 111
5.3. Microhybrid is a misnomer 112 5.4. Deep hybridisation 112 5.5. Hybrid vehicle price premium 113 5.6. Battery cost and performance are key 114 5.7. Tradeoff of energy storage technologies 116 5.8. Advantages and disadvantages 117 5.9. Can supercapacitors replace batteries? 118 5.10. Supercabatteries: lithium-ion capacitors 119 5.11. What is a range extender? 119 5.12. What will be required of a range extender? 119 5.13. Three generations of range extender 120 5.13.1. First generation range extender technology 123 5.13.2. Second generation range extender technology 123 5.13.3. Third generation range extender technology 124 5.14. Energy harvesting 126 5.15. Trend to high voltage 128 5.16. Trend to distributed components 129 5.17. Trend to flatness then smart skin 130 6. 143 LITHIUM BATTERY MANUFACTURERS COMPARED 133 7. KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR CARS 149 7.1. Three key enabling technologies become six 149 7.2. Many new forms of range extender 150 7.3. Supercapacitors 151 7.4. Energy harvesting 152 7.5. Power electronics 153 7.6. Printed and laminar electronics 154 7.7. Lightweight design 155 7.8. Structural components and smart skin 157 7.9. Innovative charging 158 7.10. Military land vehicles and in-wheel motors 159 7.11. Third generation traction batteries 160 7.12. Tesla s battery coup winners and losers 160 7.12.1. The theory says no 161 7.12.2. IDTechEx analysis 161 7.12.3. Enormity 161 7.12.4. Winners and losers 161 7.12.5. Infrastructure needs reduce 162 7.12.6. IDTechEx forecasts more cautious 162 7.12.7. Blood bath 162 7.12.8. Territorial implication 163 7.12.9. China and Korea 163
8. FUEL CELL CARS FCEV 165 8.1. Overview 165 8.2. Current status and potential 168 8.3. History/development of the technology 168 8.4. Mass market 168 8.5. Fuel cell vs. other powertrains 169 8.6. Hydrogen infrastructure: 170 8.7. Value proposition 170 8.8. Standards 171 8.9. Necessary investment 171 8.10. Improvement of the legislation in North America and Europe for hydrogen vehicles 172 8.10.1. USA 172 8.10.2. EU 173 8.11. R&D, initiatives and demonstration projects, H2 infrastructure: 173 8.11.1. EU 173 8.11.2. UK 174 8.11.3. Germany 175 8.11.4. Nordic countries 175 8.11.5. Further countries in Europe 176 8.11.6. Japan 176 8.11.7. South Korea: 177 8.11.8. USA 177 8.11.9. India 178 8.11.10. China 178 8.11.11. South Africa 179 8.11.12. Brazil 179 8.11.13. Beside the BRICS 179 8.12. Players 180 8.12.1. Traditional fuel cell car manufacturers 180 8.12.2. The pioneers 181 8.12.3. But some changed for batteries 181 8.12.4. Some started early and still don t show clear direction 181 8.13. Some alliances and initiatives 182 8.14. The OEMS and their fuel cell cars in detail 183 8.14.1. Daimler 183 8.14.2. GM 184 8.14.3. Honda 185 8.14.4. Toyota 186 8.14.5. VW Group 187 8.14.6. Audi 187 8.14.7. Hyundai 188 8.14.8. Nissan 189 8.15. Some newer suppliers and users examined 190
8.15.1. Overview 190 8.15.2. Intelligent Energy 190 8.15.3. Michelin F-CITY 191 8.15.4. Riversimple 192 8.15.5. Belenos F-500 (fuel cell range extender) 192 8.15.6. Ecomove (QBEAK) 193 8.15.7. GreenGT 195 8.15.8. Other approaches 196 8.16. Shale gas profitability doubts cast shadow on fuel cell cars launch 197 IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS 201 IDTECHEX CONSULTANCY 202