Fuel Cell Buses in Perspective: International Programs and the Global Transit Bus Market National Fuel Cell Bus Workshop October 4, 2011

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1 Fuel Cell Buses in Perspective: International Programs and the Global Transit Bus Market National Fuel Cell Bus Workshop October 4, 2011 Lisa Jerram Senior Analyst

2 Introduction Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy ecosystem. Sector Focus: Smart Energy Smart Grid Smart Transportation Smart Industry Smart Buildings Research Services: Research Reports Subscription Advisory Services Consulting & Custom Research Go-To-Market Strategy Custom Market Analysis Market Sizing & Forecasts Primary Research Technology Evaluation Commercial Due Diligence Competitive Benchmarking Strategic Advisory Sessions Copyright 2011 Pike Research 2

3 Smart Energy Ecosystem Copyright 2011 Pike Research 3

4 Market Review International Fuel Cell Bus Activity Canada Europe Asia Rest of World Market Forecasts Copyright 2011 Pike Research 4

5 Canada Fuel Cell Bus Activity BC Transit deployed 20 fuel cell buses in time for 2010 Winter Olympics: Navistar (Source: Air Liquide) Buses run full time, evaluation underway through 2014 Chassis Size Drivetrain Type Fuel Cell Battery Integratio n Hydrogen New Flyer 41 ft Fuel Cell Dominant Ballard HD6 150 kw Valence Li-ion ISE (now Bluways) Air Liquide (Source: Pike Research) Copyright 2011 Pike Research 5

6 Europe Fuel Cell Bus Activity Europe is leader in fuel cell bus development and deployment in last 10 years, along with North America HyFLEET-CUTE and ECTOS: 30 full size Daimler buses in 10 cities, Accumulated around 1.3 m miles Around a dozen midibuses deployed in cities since Battery dominant with 12 kw Hydrogenics fuel cells CHIC website (Source: European Hydrogen Association) Copyright 2011 Pike Research 6

7 CHIC Exemplifies EU Strengths 26 buses in Switzerland, Italy, United Kingdom, Norway Partnering with non-chic sites $26 million in EU Joint Technology Initiative funding Multitude of partners, including: Copyright 2011 Pike Research 7

8 Multiple Bus Platforms in EU Sample of fuel cell buses being deployed now and in next several years in Europe: London Amsterdam/Cologne Hamburg Oslo 8 Buses 4 Buses 10 Buses 5 Buses Wrightbus 12 m. APTS 18 m. Artic Daimler 12 m. Van Hool 13 m. FC Dominant Hybrid Ballard HD6 150 kw Fuel Cell Fuel Cell, Battery & Supercap Ballard HD6 150 kw Fuel Cell FC Dominant Hybrid 2 AFCC 80 kw Fuel Cells FC Dominant Hybrid Ballard HD6 150 kw Fuel Cell (Source: Pike Research) (Source: Leslie Eudy, NREL) (Source: Keith Wipke, NREL) Copyright 2011 Pike Research 8

9 Keys to Europe s Fuel Cell Bus Development Multitude of Programs Variety of Bus Sizes, OEMs Strong Government Funding and Support Ex. JTI, Germany s NIP program, HyNor Partnerships with Hydrogen Providers No European version of NREL for data Copyright 2011 Pike Research 9

10 Japan Fuel Cell Bus Activity Toyota bus subsidiary, HINO, is the only fuel cell bus player in Japan Toyota is one of automakers most committed to fuel cells for LDVs promises commercial car by 2014/2015 Interest in bus market less clear may be avenue for auto fuel cells into small shuttle buses ~ eight 34.5 ft Hino shuttle buses demo d since 2003 Fuel cell dominant hybrid: 90 kw Toyota fuel cells, NiMH batteries ( Source: Toyota/HINO) Copyright 2011 Pike Research 10

11 South Korea Fuel Cell Bus Activity South Korea in similar position to Japan: Hyundai is key fuel cell/oem player Like Toyota, Hyundai is committed to commercial FCVs by 2014, but bus plans less clear Hyundai supported by government s FC and H2 roadmap Government targeting manufacture of 450,000 FCV units (both bus and passenger) by Providing funding for R&D and subsidies. Deployed Site Chassis Size Drivetrain Type Fuel Cell Energy Storage 2006/2010 upgrades Seoul Hyundai 40 ft. Fuel cell dominant Hyundai 160 kw Supercap (Source: Toyota/HINO) Copyright 2011 Pike Research 11

12 China Fuel Cell Bus Activity China exploring fuel cell buses since 2001 under National High Technology Development Plan (863 Plan) Deployments geared around major events with global spotlight Deployed Program 2005 HyFleet in Beijing 2008 Beijing Olympics Key Partners # Specs Daimler kw fuel cell Foton Motors, Tsinghua U 3 Fuel cell battery hybrid 2010 Shanghai Expo 3 Ballard fuel cell 2010 Shanghai Expo SAIC, Sunrise Power, Shen LI High Tech 3 Local content; 100 kw fuel cell & supercaps (Source: Pike Research) Copyright 2011 Pike Research 12

13 China s Fuel Cell Bus Potential Fuel cells in 2010 green vehicle plan, but focus on LDVs On buses, China moving away from partnerships, toward developing local content and domestic IP Stack Development and FCVs R&D Roadmap, China: Copyright 2011 Pike Research (Source: Sunrise Power) 13

14 Brazil Fuel Cell Bus Activity As one of the world s biggest bus users and manufacturing bases, Brazil interested in fuel cell buses Partnering foreign fuel cell expertise with domestic OEMs, integrators Likely to follow leading countries on fuel cell bus deployments Deployed Program 2009 EMTU, Sao Paolo UNDP funding Key Partners # Specs Marcopolo, Tuttotrasporti, Ballard Planned Sao Paolo Tuttotrasporti, Ballard 1 41-ft bus 2 85 kw fuel cells 3 Fuel cell battery hybrid Copyright 2011 Pike Research 14

15 Market Review International Fuel Cell Bus Activity Market Forecasts Global Transit Bus Shipments Breakdown by Fuel Type Fuel Cell Bus Deployments Hydrogen Demand From Fuel Cell Buses Copyright 2011 Pike Research 15

16 Global Transit Bus Forecasts Transit Bus Deliveries, by Region, World Markets: (Source: Pike Research) Copyright 2011 Pike Research 16

17 Trends in Bus Fuels While diesel will remain the dominant transit bus drivetrain, by 2016, alternative technologies will be around half of sales Fuel cells will constitute very small part of the market Transit Bus Deliveries, by Drive Type, World Markets: (Source: Pike Research) Copyright 2011 Pike Research 17

18 Fuel Cell Transit Bus Forecasts Fuel cell bus deployment will be focused on a small number of progressive agencies, with sales in the 100s though 2017 Annual Fuel Cell Transit Bus Deployments: (Source: Pike Research) Copyright 2011 Pike Research 18

19 Driving Hydrogen Demand Buses can drive hydrogen demand due to heavy usage Bus Hydrogen Demand by Region, World Markets: (Source: Pike Research) Copyright 2011 Pike Research 19

20 Potential Hydrogen Demand Buses are a small percentage of Pike Research projected hydrogen demand compared to forklifts, backup power. If LDV market takes off, hydrogen demand from buses will be dwarfed. Percentage of Hydrogen Demand by Application, World Markets: Copyright 2011 Pike Research (Source: Pike Research) 20

21 Contact Us HEADQUARTERS 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO Lisa Jerram: Copyright 2011 Pike Research 21

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