Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities

Transcription

1 Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities Hybrid and pure electric vehicles for land, water and air Dr Peter Harrop and Raghu Das IDTechEx

2 Contents Page 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The value market for electric vehicles EVs of all types IDTechEx electric vehicles market forecasts Batteries and motors numbers League table of largest EV manufacturers Market sectors and technology trends Small and Medium Enterprises SME come to the fore Numbers of manufacturers Mark ups through the value chain Electric cars many very different types Pure electric cars Car-like vehicles not homologated as cars Plug-in vehicle sales Market by territory Global Europe China USA Lessons from EV related events INTRODUCTION Definitions and scope of this report Organisations involved in the EV industry value chain Commonality Key components and systems Batteries Efficiency Hybrid electric vehicles Here come range extenders Structural components Benefits How green are electric vehicles really? Contrast global automotive production 2012: major polluter HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS What is included Challenges Listing of manufacturers 72

3 Statistics for all types of industrial lift truck Manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs Survey of expected powertrains including EV options Market size LIGHT INDUSTRIAL, BUSES AND OTHER COMMERCIAL EVS What is included Large and diverse sector Mainly on-road Move to cities Hybrid and pure electric trend Sub categories Buses Vans, pick-up trucks and larger on-road trucks Market drivers Airport EVs: Ground Support Equipment GSE Airbus signs MoU to develop airliner electric taxi system Small people-movers Light industrial aids Listing of manufacturers MOBILITY FOR THE DISABLED Compelling and enduring need The demographic time-bomb Ageing population, obesity and the dependent elderly Laws make mobility easier Types of mobility vehicle Interchina Industry Group China Listing of manufacturers Growth by creating new markets TWO WHEELED EVS AND ALLIED VEHICLES What is included China unprecedented growth of electric two wheelers Other countries Prices and performances compared Hybrid motorcycles Market drivers Bicycles and electric bicycles The big winners in western markets Statistics for all bicycles Listing of manufacturers 111

4 China Forecasts CAR-LIKE VEHICLES NOT HOMOLOGATED AS CARS: MICROEV, QUADRICYCLE, E-TRIKE, NEV, GOLF CAR Many names, common factors Car-like vehicles that evade restrictions, taxes and other costs Estrima Birò MicroEV Quadricycle removable battery Philippines: big new commitments to e-trikes Listing of manufacturers beyond golf cars Golf cars What is included Market drivers Prices and profits Listing of manufacturers Forecasts PURE ELECTRIC AND HYBRID CARS The market for electric cars Definitions Cars as part of the big picture Further details of e-car trends League table of top 13 electric vehicle companies Awkward tipping point Forecasting challenges Disruptive change and merging of all parts Range extenders including fuel cells Batteries Electric motors Power electronics Increased performance and complexity Supercapacitors: more than meets the eye Across batteries in cars Completely replacing batteries in hybrid cars Across fuel cells in cars Progress of Toyota and Tesla Market and technology priorities Toyota simplifies priorities and Tesla lands Gigafactory partnership MILITARY Examples of military EVs Hummer USA / China 158

5 Quantum Technologies USA Aggressor AMV US Army trucks etc ZAP, Columbia ParCar USA Oshkosh Truck Corp USA Plug-in trucks BAE Systems UK Electric robot vehicles USA UQM unmanned combat vehicle USA Balqon Corporation Electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) Small electrical UAVs SUAV batteries The most successful electric UAV Micro nano air vehicles Large electrical UAVs COM-BAT robot bat USA Examples of military EVs in the water US Naval Undersea Warfare Center Manufacturers of military EVs Forecasts MARINE Hybrid and pure electric tugboats Market segments Total market Underwater On the water Commonality with land EVs Grants for land and water Effect of land EV manufacturers entering marine Market drivers Pollution laws back electric boats India, Europe, USA Energy harvesting superyacht UK Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Europe, USA Manufacturers by country and product Selling prices Forecasts AIRCRAFT, MOBILE ROBOTS AND OTHER EVS Definition Market drivers Listing of other manufacturers by country and product Market size and trends Aircraft Renault, Piccard Solar Impulse 188

6 Non-military mobile robots USA, UK, Japan The Electrolux Automower Sweden Rescue robots in Germany Robots on Mars Leisure on land Research and hobbyist Electric aircraft for civil use Robotic lawn mowers Forecasts 197 IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTANCY 199