CAFÉ FOR NEW CARS IN MEXICO? Dr. David Bonilla Senior Research Fellow TSU/JM-Institute for Carbon & Reduction in Transport 28 text; title

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1 CAFÉ FOR NEW CARS IN MEXICO? Dr. David Bonilla Senior Research Fellow TSU/JM-Institute for Carbon & Reduction in Transport 28 text; title

2 Outline Why CAFÉ? Why: Policy evolution, Transport-energy changes, real world fuel economy ; How: Defining fuel economy standards or GHG standards? For whom Fuel economy as a GHG strategy for Mexico

3 Geography and fuel economy Stock + mileage= + demand gas Large pop centers lie on high altitude Vehicle choice/fuel economy

4 Introduction to Corporate av. Fuel Economy Fuel efficiency interacts with model sales produces a Corporate Fuel Economy new Fleet FE=11km/L CAFE Total sales sales Sales Sales 1 2 n combined_fe combi_fe combined_fe 1 2 n

5 Outline: key questions To what extent is CAFÉ a useful regulatory policy to control demand for motor fuels in Mexico? What is the international evidence supporting CAFÉ? What is the best metric to adopt for a fuel economy standard? Mexico the only OECD country without standards

6 Policy evolution: car imports 1. NAFTA & 2 nd hand CAR Market: The big unknown > Import licences of new 2 nd hand cars and NAFTA (August) Agreement to name car manufacturing, model make 2 nd hand passenger cars imported into the Mexican border (Baja California; Sonora) Agreement to reduce the import tariff on second hand cars from the U.S and Canada (under NAFTA RULES agreed in 1993 under Salinas admin.)

7 Policy evolution; key points 2000 (17 NOV) Agreement to allow EU car imports into Mexico 2005 Decrete to allow a permanent imports regime in Mexico of 2 nd hand cars Wild cards: Post-Copenhaguen /Kyoto GHG targets Balance of Payments Declining oil production (Oil field)

8 Policy evolution; key points Vehicle Emissions Control Technology in Mexico Positive Crankcase Ventilation (PCV) 1972 Evaporative Control (Canister) Electronic Ignition Altitude Compensation for carburetors Computerized Ignition Fuel injection 1991 Catalytic converters Introduced way catalytic converters

9 The Why: Stock of cars and sales ' s v e h i c l e s s t o c k a n d s a l e s : M e x i c o stock of cars car sales strong increases in replacement rates since late 90s -Sales are about 6% of stock; - At least 16 yrs are needed to replace the entire fleet! - this growth is driven by 1) strong economic growth; 2) trade policy;

10 Vehicle sales in Mexico: 2007 (AMIA) 2010) acura audi bentley BMW daimler chrysler Fiat Ford motors General motor Honda Isuzu Jaguar Land rover Lincoln Mazda Mercedes Benz mercedes Benz vans MG rover Mini Mitsubishi Nissan Peugeot Porsche renault seat smart Suzuki Subaru - Big players: Japanese brands, French, Italian -Strong competition from Ford; -GM is also strong; - New players: TOYOta and Mini -Cultural factors favour American brands over others. -

11 Vehicle sales in Mexico: 2003 subcompact compact luxury sport Imports - Subcompact lost market share: -Strong competition from imports - New players: TOYOta and Mini -Cultural factors favour American brands over others. -

12 Vehicle sales in Mexico: 1993 subcompact compact - Subcompact dominant: -Compact -No imports luxury sport imports

13 GHG strategy Mexico is signatory of KYOTO protocol Annex II country (Kyoto) Among top 20 carbon emitters Targets?

14 Imports of CO 2 intensive cars are increasing: 54% of sales=imports -Strong increase in imported vehicles Im ports sport luxury com pact subcom pact (passenger only, 000s cars): 2003 (Instituto Mexicano de Transporte)

15 Imports of CO 2 intensive cars are increasing: 54% of sales=imports This has important implications For fuel economy targets. We do not know enough imported cars Market failure: we are not buying fuel economy in the 2 nd hand car mkt Imported cars put downward pressure on vehicle prices of new and old vehicles Supply curve of vehicles shifts rightwards -Pricing strategies of manufacturing co s change

16 CO 2 emissions per capita (vehicles only) the top 25 th emitters Lux US Canada Australia Spain France UK Germany Japan Korea Mexico Kg-co2/capita (road vehicles only) : IEA data

17 Transport & the gap; on road (FE) fleet M P G : o n - r o a d f u e l e c o n o m y ( e n t i r e s t o c k ) On-road fuel economy more than twice of test fuel economy -on road fuel economy: the litre of gasoline consumed per km driven (all vehicles)

18 Mexico, UK, China: new car fuel economy L/1 0 0 k M (G A S O LIN E O N LY ) MEXICO (gasoline) CHINA (gasoline) UK (Gasoline) NEW CAR FUEL ECONOMY (Elaborated from data in CMM (2010) and WEBSITES (china) and UK DfT data ) best selling cars -Fuel economy is the litre of gasoline used per km driven. -China s fuel economy (top ten best selling cars) > (more litres/km) MX Mexico buys better fuel economy than China

19 Transport & the gap; vehicle ownership: Mex and Brazil C A R S / P E O P L E MX BRAZIL USA -similar income levels but different ownership levels CAR ownership: (metropolitan areas > 200 v/person)

20 Gasoline imports= 40% total required 's b a r r e l s p e r d a y ( g a s o l i n e i m p o r t s ) imports production of gasoline Domestic production of gasoline is slow and insufficient. -strong increases in import rates since early app. 3 billion US$ in value; -Gasoline import track vehicle sales.

21 Gasoline > domestic production M o to r fu e ls (P e ta jo u le s ) gasoline use diesel Gasoline use is growing at 6% per year. -strong increases in import rates since early Gasoline import track vehicle sales ; -Biofuels=0.11% of gas and diesel

22 Vehicle use is > 50% below U.S average K m p e r v e h ic l e p e r y e a r Vehicle use is growing at 6% per year. -strong increases in import rates since early Gasoline import track vehicle sales; Gasoline subsidies (middle class tax)

23 Vehicle km growing at annual rates (> 6%) similar to 1980s in the US V e h ic le K m (m illio n ) 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 road (all vehicles) Vkm growing > personal incomes pre crisis.

24 The How : CO 2 targets (CO 2 /km) Why café? Doubling of new car FE is possible in a decade 7.4 km/l doubles in a decade But imports of cars

25 But downsizing is effective under CAFE? Can FE standards lead to downsizing?

26 HOW Types of fuel e. standards Gross vehicle weight formula: China and Japan (most successful) Vehicle footprint/area formula Volume formula Power formula shows highest correlation factor (81%) to FE Distance from axis formula What is the best metric to adopt : vol.; weight, for a fuel economy standard?

27 Probs with standards? 1. Driving is not regulated 2. Lays the ground for cheaper mileage (rebound) 3. May increase traffic deaths 4. It is an additional cost to car manufacturers 5. does not target the 2 nd hand car market: large and growing with chocolates cars 6. Consumer taste & Mexico s Geography: A.Mexican car buyers want vehicles that are powerful because of rugged terrains B.American style cars are very popular

28 WILL CAFE target THE LARGE / OLDER car SEGMENT IN Mexico?

29 Conclusion Stock + mileage + imports pushing demand gas CAFÉ may save Mexico imports of gasoline Car imports & standard in Mexico But cheaper mileage (rebound) Mex FE> China but below EU new Car FE CAFÉ does not target the 2 nd hand car market: large and growing with imports chocolates cars FE standard: Vehicle weight is best Long lead times to replace stocks A. Consumer taste & Mexico s Geography: rural areas population is highly dispersed B. Urban region

30 Conclusion Stock + mileage + imports pushing demand gas CAFÉ may save Mexico imports of gasoline Car imports & standard in Mexico But cheaper mileage (rebound) Mex FE> China but below EU new Car FE CAFÉ does not target the 2 nd hand car market: large and growing with imports chocolates cars Long lead times to replace stocks A. Consumer taste & Mexico s Geography: rural areas population is highly dispersed B. Urban region

31 Conclusion Stock + mileage + imports pushing demand gas CAFÉ may save Mexico imports of gasoline Car imports & standard in Mexico But cheaper mileage (rebound) Mex FE> China but below EU new Car FE CAFÉ does not target the 2 nd hand car market: large and growing with imports chocolates cars Long lead times to replace stocks A. Consumer taste & Mexico s Geography: rural areas population is highly dispersed B. Urban region