CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY

国 家 发 展 和 改 革 委 员 会 能 源 研 究 所 Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY CHINA NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY CENTER ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF NDRC April 20, 2015

Core Working Group: Partnership Technical Support:

THE ACHIEVEMENT of CHINA 2050 HIGH RE PENETRATION SCENARIO IS the KEY FACTOR for OUR BEAUTIFUL CHINA High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario Economic Dreams To get rid of fossil fuels is our 生 global 态 文 明 development 是 人 类 文 明 的 重 trend. 要 标 志 Ecological civilization is the moral high ground of human development. Ecological Dreams

THE ACHIEVEMENT of CHINA 2050 HIGH RE PENETRATION SCENARIO IS VISION AND CONSENSUS OF THE WHOLE SOCIETY Social Economic Middle Level of Developed Country Energy Strategy Low Carbon and Green Electricity for Future Ecological Environment Blue Air and Green Water

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GDP:4b CNY 2010 2013 2020 2030 2050 GDP:28.2b CNY,7 times the GDP in 2010

ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT The emission trends of various main air pollutants Pollutant Emissions Below the level of emissions in 1980 CO2 Emissions 3b tons of annual CO2 emissions, 2.17 tons of emissions per capita 3.99t 1990 4.44t 2010 6.7 7.25 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 10k tons 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2050 Power sector emissions The level of global average emissions 1.4b tons in 2050, 3.02 3.2b tons in 2010 SO2 NOx 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 smoke and dust SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 Atmo Hg China USA EU 10k tons 2010 2011 2050 CO2 Emissions (b tons)

MAIN CALCULATED RESULTS for HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION in 2050 The rate of electrification to be higher than 60% in end-use energy consumption The proportion of non-fossil energy generation to be higher than 91% 3.4billion tce of primary energy supply, and 3.2billion tce of end-use energy consumption 3X 22% 62% 16000 Twh 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2.7b 3.4b 2010 2050 2400GW of wind capacity, 2600GW of solar power capacity, and 9660TWh of total annual power generation 2010 2050

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO: PARTHWAY TEN CONLUSIONS OR TEN THINKS?

BY 2050, RENEWABLE ENERGY COULD MEET MORE THAN 60% OF PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 Primary Energy Supply(billion tce, thermal equivalent ) 70% 60% 50% 3.0 2.5 2.0 40% 30% 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 Coal Oil Nature Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Biomass Bio fuel Solar Power 20% 10% 0% SWH & Geothermal RE Share

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL PROMOTE FOSSIL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS TO PEAK BY 2025 12.0 Units : billion tons 10.0 8.0 7.8 8.5 9.2 9.2 8.2 6.5 3000 2500 Units: million tce 6.0 4.0 5.3 4.1 3.0 Reference High penetration 2000 2.0 1500 1000 500 0.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity Coke Chemical Manufacturing Services Residents Transport Argriculture Metal smelting

RENEWABLE POWER IS THE ESSENTIAL REPLACEMENT FOR FOSSIL ENERY 16000 TWh 100% 14000 12000 71% 82% 78% 88% 84% 91% 86% 90% 80% 70% 10000 57% 67% 60% 8000 46% 53% 50% 6000 4000 2000 22% 28% 23% 34% 29% 41% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 COAL NAT_GAS FUELOIL NUCLEAR Hydro WIND SOLAR MUNI_WASTE BIOGAS STRAW 0% WOOD GEOTHERMAL WAVE RE share Non-fossil energy Share

WIND POWER AND SOLAR POWER WILL BECOME IMPORTANT PILLARS OF THE FUTURE POWER SUPPLY 3000000 2040, 2204GW 2500000 2040, 2056GW 2000000 1500000 1000000 2020,307GW 500000 2020,174GW 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 20312033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 0 Wind PV&CSP Development Phase Diagram of Wind and Solar power in High Penetration Scenario

HIGHER ELECTRIFICATION RATE BRING HUMAN SOCIETY INTO MORE HIGHER LEVEL OF CIVILIZATION FORMATION 4.0 3.5 3.0 Units: billion tce 62% 59% 54% 51% 47% 70% 60% 50% 2.5 2.0 33% 37% 41% 40% 1.5 26% 30% 1.0 20% 0.5 10% 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0% Coal Oil products Nature Gas Electricity consumption Bio fuel SWH Geo thermal Electrification share

TRANSFORM THE ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION NETWORK TO A PLARTFORM FOR OPTIMIZING RESCOURES ALLOCATION Inter-provincial Transmission Capacity Demand in High Penetration Scenario(GW)

TECHNOLOGICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATION IS THE FOUNDATION BUILA A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM RE Wind power Forecast Hydro power Flexible generation Thermal power 储 能 电 站 Power System Flexibility PV Driverless EV Wireless charging Power Generation Regulation Output Regulation Smart metering Power Market Demand Response Ancillary Services Virtual data center Integration Operator Bidding at power market Coordinate EVs with smart vehicle network, driverless cars and wireless charging technology Business model: charging and discharging services, and shared EV services Recycle Battery, provide energy storage service to Grid Charging Station Mobile Station Driverless EV 国 家 发 展 和 改 革 委 员 会 能 源 研 究 所 Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission EV

BUILDING A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM AT A SMALL OR NON-INCREMENTAL COST Yuan/KWh 0.800 0.700 0.746 0.701 0.689 0.683 0.672 0.666 0.674 0.678 0.685 0.600 0.500 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Transmission Cost 0.180 0.182 0.183 0.185 0.190 0.199 0.213 0.230 0.250 Start-up costs 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.005 Fuel Cost 0.276 0.259 0.262 0.233 0.186 0.143 0.111 0.094 0.080 Variable O&M 0.022 0.021 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.010 Fixed O&M 0.023 0.028 0.029 0.035 0.040 0.044 0.050 0.053 0.054 Capital Cost 0.244 0.212 0.196 0.212 0.240 0.266 0.285 0.285 0.287 kwh Cost Development Trend in High Penetration Scenario

AS A NEW ECONOMIC GROWTH POINT, RE CAN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE DEVELOPMENT QUALITY OF OVERALL ECONOMY 7.0% 6.0% Contribution of RE and related industries to GDP 6.2% 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Energy Sector Employment in 2010 (unit: 1000) Coal Oil Gas Electricity RE Nuclear R&D 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.9% 2010 2020 2030 2050 Wind Solar EV Other RE 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 125 481 65 Growth of Employment in RE and related industries (unit: 10000) 377 81 46 36 15 13 250 Solar Wind Hydro Biomass Others 2015 2050

HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL HELP BRING BACK CLEAR WATER AND BLUE SKIES 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 Units: billion tons 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 30.0 25.0 Units: million tons 3.00 2.00 1.00 10% 5% 20.0 15.0 10.0 0.00 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China USA EU China Share of Global 2050 China's CO 2 Emission in the Global Contrast in High Penetration Scenario 5.0 0.0 1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China SO2 Emission High Penetration Scenario China Nox Emission High Penetration Scenario 2050 China's SO 2 and NO X Emission in High Penetration Scenario Note: China's data after 2010 is scenario data And data of other countries is trend prediction Data from IEA ETP 2014

2050 HIGH PENETRATION SCENARIO: PATHWAY Largest Challenge: Variability of Renewables!

Achieve Higher-level Dynamic Stability Through Changes: Internet + Supply Side Changes Stability? Reliability? Intelligence Comm Internet Demand Side Also Changes Energy Internet Internet of Things Flexibility

System with High RE Penetration Will Be a Reliable Power System Demand side flexibility Variable demand Variable generation Smart Control and realtime price Flexible generation units

Contribution of EV s Flexibility to the Power System Types and Numbers Passenger V Bus/Business/Delivery Vehicle Technology EV Plug-in Charging Mode Low Voltage AC DC Changeable Battery Operation Features Frequency of Charging Miles Trucks Fuel Battery Wireless Charging Time EV Charging and Discharging Load Daily miles Integration Charging Load Curves Charging control and Storage

New Business model of EV Will Change the Concept of Power Dispatch Fixed Stations Wireless Charging EV Integration Operator Wireless Charging Mobile Stations 流 动 站 点 退 役 电 池 回 收 EV Business Model and Integrated Operation of Power System

Energy Storage of EV Case Study for 2030 in Beijing

880GW Flexible Coal Will Provide Support for Stable and Reliable Operation of the Power System in 2050

Hourly Dispatch on a Typical Day in High Penetration Scenario 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 T001 T002 T003 T004 T005 T006 T007 T008 T009 T010 T011 T012 T013 T014 T015 T016 T017 T018 T019 T020 T021 T022 T023 T024 NUCLEAR COAL Hydro NAT_GAS WIND WOOD SOLAR GEOTHERMAL BIOGAS STRAW MUNI_WASTE HEAT WAVE FUELOIL PUMPED_HYDRO

ACTION PLAN FOR HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION

BUILDING HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION FUTURE WILL BRING NON- ZERO-SUM RESULTS Market Oriented Economically Viable Consider both long term and near term Soft and Hard Supports Benefit the Whole Society

KEY ELEMENTS of THE ACTION PLANS 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Technology Revolution Extract potential of grid, strengthen infrastructure of provincial distribution network, especially 500KV interconnection lines for large wind and solar bases EV Industrialized,EV become pillar of vehicle industry or even of the national economy by 2025 Technology Innovation: Significantly increase electrification rate in end-use consumptions, flexible coal(target: 1000 hours), modernized manufacture and 3-Networks Integration Enter the era of Energy Internet by 2025: efficiently integrate EV, smart network, and Demand Response; annual installation of wind and solar power each hit 100GW Institutional Reform,Power Sector Reform ongoing in parallel with 13 th FYP implementation; Building a competitive power market in China within 10 years Reform of State Owned Enterprises: Improve Market Mechanism and break monopoly International Energy transformation of Germany(Learn and Cooperate) Denmark concepts to phase Cooperation out fossil energy Global energy governance is a trend,and conformed with Pareto Standard. Only cooperation will lead to win-win!

Do not ever think about that we can escape, our every each step determine the final outcome, our foot steps are moving towards the end of own chosen target. Milan Kundera