Increasing Power Flexibility Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue 2016 Berlin I 17.03.2016 Dr Michael Ritzau
CV Dr Michael Ritzau Managing Director P E R S O N A L D A T A Year 1956 Nationality german B A C K G R O U N D 1976 Graduated in electrical engineering at the RWTH Aachen Doctorate in engineering (1989) at the Institute for Electrical Plant and Power Industry 1988 co-founder and managing director of BET Büro für Energiewirtschaft und technische Planung GmbH in Aachen Member of IAEE (International Association of Energy Economists) F I E L D S OF E X P E R T I S E Strategy and political advisory Energy markets analysis Economic and technical feasibility of power plant projects (Due diligence) Member of FGH (Forschungsgesellschaft Energie) Member of working group fuel and water whithin VIK (Vereinigung industrielle Kraftwirtschaft) Member in various panels of BMWi Integration of intermittent generation from renewables Grid access concepts and Grid extension planning Dispute reolution Counseling in strategic, energy-related matters for decision makers Innovationsforum Energie, Zürich, 10.03.2016 1
WHAT DRIVES US We accompany the energy industry as pioneers, experts and practical translators 2015 Proposal for a new network charge system 2016+ Thinking energy ahead Utility company + 1995 Development of a network access regulation 2003 Development of the German gas network access model 1999-2000 Assessing the development of competition for the Federal Ministry of Economy Since 2007 Transaction projects & management consulting SINCE 2011 Support of ministries on implementation of the energy concept 2013 Conception of an energy market design for VKU 2012 Foundation of B E T Dynamo Suisse AG 1988 Foundation of B E T by Dr. Michael Ritzau & Dr. Wolfgang Zander Hier: Veranstaltung, Ort Datum für alle Folien (Einfügen-Fußzeile-für alle übernehmen) 2
HOW WE ARE ORGANISED We have aligned our structures to tackle the complex market requirements Grid Consulting Management Consulting Market Consulting GRIDS Grid Evaluation & Grid Planning STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT Coporate Strategy & Management POWER PLANTS & STORAGE Power Plants & Storage GRID MANAGEMENT Commercial Grid Management TRANS- ACTIONS Transaction Advisory Services & Business Analysis MARKETS & TRADE Energy Markets, Sales & Portfolio Management REGULATION Regulation & Network Access ORGANISA- TIONS & PERSONNEL Organisational & Personnel Development RENEWABLES Decentralised Energy Systems DATA MANAGEMENT Organisation & Data Management SYSTEMS & MODELS Energy Systems & Fundamental Models Hier: Veranstaltung, Ort Datum für alle Folien (Einfügen-Fußzeile-für alle übernehmen) 3
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF MORE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ARE INSTALLED? The increasing share of renewable energy sources with intermittent generation has a considerable impact on our present power system Actual (2014) 27 % RES Scenario 40 % RES load renewable energy generation Not taking into account bottlenecks in the grid renewable energy generation residual load Scenario 55% RES Residual load BEE-Scenario load renewable energy generation residual load Source Krzikalla et al (BET) 2013: Möglichkeiten zum Ausgleich fluktuierender Einspeisungen aus Erneuerbaren Energien, Studie im Auftrag des Bundesverbandes Erneuerbare Energie BETD, Berlin, 17.03.2016 4
OPTIONS FOR INCREASING POWER FLEXIBILITY There are o lot of options for increasing flexibility. The electricity market should provide the appropriate price signal to trigger most efficient technologies 32% 40% 45% 50% 70% > 80% Share of Renewables 1) 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Site Management Industry Demand Site Management Domestic and commercial Power to heat, power to transport Feed-in Management Wind & PV Reducing must-run operation Grid extension Increasing flexibility of thermal power plants by retrofit New flexible back-up plants Adding heat storage to CHP New Hydro storage Battery storage as a game changer Power to Gas (H 2 ) 1) % of power consumption Power to Gas (CH 4 ) BETD, Berlin, 17.03.2016 6
EXAMPLE 1: POWER-TO-HEAT Electric boilers replace the heat production in heating boilers; the electricity for this will be purchased in the control energy market and the spot market Heat generation is able to compete with electricity generation if levies & network fees of taxes are removed, expensive, alternative heat generation is replaced and / or simultaneously quality system service services are provided Climate politically electric boiler are only justified if actually used with Renewable energy overflow Case Study Stadtwerke Lemgo Bild- & Textquelle: Stadtwerke Lemgo GmbH In 2012 Stadtwerke Lemgo took a 5 MW electric boiler in operation The boiler replaced heat from heating plants and is marketed in the control energy markets Because of the combination of CHP and electric boiler SW Lemgo have a special regulatory situation regarding EEG Umlage, electricity taxes and network tariffs. Innovationsforum Energie, Zürich, 10.03.2016 7
EXAMPLAE 2: BATTERY STORAGE FOR IMPROVING THE SELF-CONSUMPTION RATE OF A PV-SYSTEM How does the installation of a battery storage improve the profitability of a PV self consumption system for a supermarket in Germany? 500 kw/h Without battery storage storage capacity utilization in 2015 400 300 200 100 the electricity surplus will be feed in Electricity generation of the PV plant exceeds only in a few hours of a year the load of the supermarket - 1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001 filling level storage [kwh] loadt segment I [kw] power adapetd Et location II [kw] I N I T I A L S I T U A T I O N W I T H O U T S T O R A G E supermarket uses PV plant (95 kwp) for self consumption electricity demand of supermarket: 254 GWh/a (P min : 9 kw/a; P max : 60 kw/a) self consumption rate of the generated electricity at 80% still high economical attractiveness for the use of a PV system for self consumption, although the EEG-Umlage has to be paid proportionally since 2015 M O D E L L I N G Assumption for modeling lithium-ion battery: storage efficiency: 85% B A T T E R Y S T O R A G E self-discharge rate: 0,05%/yr (0,001 %/h) max. depth of discharge: 70% Modelling was carried out on a high temporally basis Does the profitability of the PV self consumption system can be further increased by the installation of a battery storage to enhance the self-consumption rate to 100%? Hier: Veranstaltung, Ort Datum für alle Folien (Einfügen-Fußzeile-für alle übernehmen) 8
BATTERY STORAGE FOR IMPROVING THE SELF-CONSUMPTION RATE OF A PV-SYSTEM the full battery capacity (516 kwh) is used only a few hours per year; the utilization of the (expensive) battery is relatively low I results of storage modelling in order to achieve a self-consumption rate of 100% (no feed in), a relatively high storage capacity (about 500 kwh) need to be installed N E E D S F O R F U R T H E R M O D E L L I N G Does a battery storage with less capacity and a higher utilization is economically attractive? What critical costs per kwh capacity a lithium-ion battery need to have to be cost-effective? II III IV the full battery capacity is used only a few hours per year; over 20 years the lithium-ion battery run-through 632 (theoretical) full charge cycles; the battery buffers primarily peaks with the installation of the battery storage, the NPV of the PV self consumption system can be improved by nearly 40,000 to 81,160 (discounted over 20 years) battery storage capacity is up to date still cost expensive; for 40,000 a commercial lithium-ion battery system with 40 kwh is available What further deployment and optimization possibilities arise when installing a battery storage? What monetary value does have an advanced storage utilization to optimize electricity procurement? What storage capacity lead to a maximum NPV? What influence does have the consideration of a battery storage on the optimal size of the PV system? Hier: Veranstaltung, Ort Datum für alle Folien (Einfügen-Fußzeile-für alle übernehmen) 9
HOW CAN VIRTUAL POWER PLANTS CONTRIBUTE? The integration of renewable energy can be supported by virtual power plants. Together with large-scale integrated district heating systems, CHP can contribute significantly A virtual power plant is the combination of measures to increase flexibility in all components of the electricity network (generation, grid, consumers). Virtual power plants enable the combination and control of generation and demand to an optimized overall system. Various control concepts: DSM Virtual power plant Decentralized control of virtual power plants according to market signals considering local restrictions (thermal load for CHP, electrical load) CHP Control by a central instance (control room) Heat BETD, Berlin, 17.03.2016 10
STATUS QUO AND TARGETS Is the future energy supplier a big supervisor of various flexibilities? Utility + supportes households in decentralised heat supply as contractor and uses the flexibility to optimize the system" Utility + operates its own power generation equipment and uses the transformation of other energy forms for energy storage Utility + supports households in implementing their own supplies and uses the storage for system optimization? Utility + needs access to electric mobility to time to stagger load operations Versorger + gaines access to public transport to use the flexibility in the schedule management Versorger + supports industry and trade in the uplift of flexibility options Innovationsforum Energie, Zürich, 10.03.2016 11
MAIN FEATURES OFF THE NETWORKS TARIFFS The alternate tariffs offers the possibility to adapt their consumption and injection behavior flexibly to market and network situation Differentiation of network tariff according to selfconsumption and energy output Base tariff Alternate tariff Total consumption Energy output Selfconsumption Level of energy price 5 ct/kwh 6 ct/kwh 2.5 ct/kwh No general punishment for selfconsumption Incentive for network-relevant behavior Maintenance of the energy price (kwh) Network tariff scale according to spot price Spot price Extra charge Energy output Energy price consumption <1 ct/kwh 2.5 ct/kwh 1 bis 8 ct/kwh +3.5 ct/kwh 2.5 ct/kwh >8 ct/kwh +6.5 ct/kwh 2.5 ct/kwh Strengthening market signal via network charges Network tariff scale stimulates marketrelevant behavior 1 Analog to this an adaption of EEG- Umlage is advisably (1) Netzbetreiber, die keine direkte Kopplung an den Spotpreis vornehmen wollen, können in begründeten Fällen ein eigenes Netzsignal verwenden. Innovationsforum Energie, Zürich, 10.03.2016 12
load (kw/h) load (kw) MAIN FEATURES OFF THE NETWORKS TARIFFS Next to base tariffs and alternate tariffs, additional tariffs give the consumer the possibility to save costs by load control through the network Additional tariff 1: load shifting Networks operator shifts the electricity output (e.g. loading over night) Controlable tariffs prevent disproportionate network expansion through Gleichzeitigkeit 1 18:00 20:00 22:00 24:00 00:00 02:00 Additional tariff 2: unsecured load (n-0) (n-1) Expansion of the available capacity by (n-0)-secure network operation Analog to gas supply (1) Analoge Systematik zu den bisher abschaltbaren Tarifen nach 14a EnWG. Nutzer, die keine steuerbaren Tarife möchten, können (ggf. mit Beteiligung an den Ausbaukosten durch Einmalzahlungen) auch reguläre Kapazität erhalten. Innovationsforum Energie, Zürich, 10.03.2016 13
E N E R G I E. W E I T E R D E N K E N B E T Büro für Energiewirtschaft und technische Planung GmbH Aachen, Leipzig, Hamm (D) Zofingen (CH) Alfonsstraße 44, D-52070 Aachen, Telefon +49 241 47062-0 Telefax +49 241 47062-600 www.bet-aachen.de K O N T A K T P E R S O N Dr. Michael Ritzau Telefon +49 241 47062-420 Fax +49 241 47062-600 E-Mail michael-ritzau@bet-aachen.de