1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 Property Times Europe Short supply improves rental outlook 19 October Contents Overview 1 Market Statistics 2 Office Market Overview 3 Outlook 5 Economic Overview 6 Appendix 7 Definitions 8 Authors David Rees Forecasting & Strategy Research +44 (0)20 3296 2251 david.rees@dtz.com Ben Burston Forecasting & Strategy Research +44 (0)20 3296 2296 ben.burston@dtz.com Contacts Tony McGough Global Head of Forecasting & Strategy Research +44 (0)20 3296 2314 tony.mcgough@dtz.com Magali Marton Head of CEMEA Research +33 (0)1 49 64 49 54 magali.marton@dtz.com Martin Davis Head of UK Research +44 (0)20 3296 2304 martin.davis@dtz.com Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research +44 (0)20 3296 2159 hans.vrensen@dtz.com Prime rental levels increased again in, driven by robust rental growth in Europe s major markets on the back of demand/supply imbalance for grade A stock. We have revised upwards our forecast for average rental growth in to 6.8%, after expectations for London, Moscow and Stockholm were upgraded (Figure 1). In 2011 prime rents are forecast to rise by a further 4.7%. This is an upward revision from our previous estimate of 3.7%. The highest rental growth in 2011 is forecast in London and CEE markets. We forecast zero rental growth in Madrid and Brussels, as cuts to public spending filter through to the occupier market. Leasing activity fell marginally in, with aggregated take-up reaching 1.4 million sq m as occupiers looked to downsize. However, rolling annual take-up indicates that the underlying trend is positive. The European average office availability ratio declined marginally in to 11%, reflecting the downward trend in new supply. Figure 1 European Office Rental Forecast (Index) 1999=100 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Current Forecast Previous Forecast www.dtz.com 1
Market Statistics Table 1 Key statistics, Market Take-up Q2, sq m Take-up, sq m Annual change in stock, % Availability ratio, % Prime rents, /sq m/month Annual change in prime rents, % Dublin 29,250 23,800 1.2 22.9 31 0.0 Edinburgh 4,700 10,600 1.0 9.9 29 0.0 London (City) 86,900 174,000 2.4 8.7 55 23.5 London (WE) 71,400 69,700 0.9 6.6 86 3.1 Brussels 100,500 79,700 1.8 12.4 23 5.8 Prague 49,000 42,200 2.5 13.1 21 0.0 Paris (CBD) 101,200 143,500 0.0 5.2 62 13.9 Berlin 93,000 98,000 0.3 8.6 22-1.1 Frankfurt 176,000 150,000 1.6 14.0 34-2.9 Budapest 61,000 53,000 32.1 21.6 14-6.7 Milan 65,000 110,000 3.1 8.6 40 0.0 Luxembourg 30,600 23,800 3.6 7.4 40 0.0 Amsterdam 38,100 47,000-2.1 20.8 30 7.4 Warsaw 63,400 85,200 5.5 7.6 24 0.0 Bucharest 40,000 70,000 17.0 16.8 19-9.5 Moscow 290,000 140,000 20.4 11.5 55 12.5 Madrid 162,000 65,000 1.7 8.1 24-11.1 Kyiv 10,500 23,600 10.1 14.4 26 2.9 Oslo* 32,000 28,000 1.5 8.0 34-1.5 Stockholm* 6,000 34,000 0.8 12.8 38 7.7 Istanbul - European CBD* 512-4 6.3 10.0 26 0.0 *Figures show net absorption rather than take-up www.dtz.com 2
Office Market Overview Take-up stable, but becoming more subdued as occupiers consolidate European take-up decreased marginally in, by 4% to reach 1.4 million sq m compared to 1.5 million sq m in Q2 (Figure 2). Whilst this marks a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) decrease, the overall trend indicates an improvement in the European letting market. From its lowest point of 4.5 million sq m in rolling annual take-up increased to 5.8 million sq m in (Figure 2). This increase is reflected at a city level where, in many markets such as London City, cumulative takeup from Q1 to (474,000 sq m) has already outstripped the amount recorded in the whole of (409,000 sq m) (Figure 3). As in Q2, demand in was predominantly characterised by occupiers looking to consolidate by downsizing or by moving to more efficient and affordable premises. In many cases, occupiers, wary of the growing shortage of grade A stock, have sought to take advantage of the dip in prime rental values before the demand/supply imbalance pushes rents higher. Availability trending downwards Figure 2 European office market take-up Million sq m 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Figure 3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Quarterly take-up (LHS) Q4 Q1 Million sq m 8 Q2 Rolling annual take-up (RHS) City level office take-up: vs. Q1- Million sq m 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 The availability ratio was virtually unchanged in, falling from 11.3% to 11% over the quarter (Figure 4). This fall reflects a shallow downward trend from its peak of 12% in Q1. It now stands at the same level observed in. up to Moscow demonstrated the largest decline in the availability ratio, falling from 14.9% to 11.5% over the quarter. Only four out of 21 markets covered experienced an increase in the availability ratio. Istanbul recorded the largest increase, from 8.8% in Q2 to 1 at the end of September - the highest level since Q1 2006. The lack of speculative development, in addition to increased demand for grade A space, will limit the volume of new supply being brought onto the market. This will be offset by the release of secondary space being sub-let as occupiers downsize and move into better quality alternatives. However, we expect the gradual reduction in availability to continue. Figure 4 European office market availability ratio 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 www.dtz.com 3
Office Market Overview Modest rental growth continues for third successive quarter Prime rental growth remained positive in, with the weighted European growth rate increasing by 2% from Q2. On an annual basis, rental growth turned positive for the first time since as more markets returned rental increases (Figure 5). Key markets lead European rental growth Eight out of 21 markets recorded rental growth in. Of these a number of markets have displayed rental growth over consecutive quarters. In London City, prime rents have increased each quarter since bottoming out in Q4 and now stand at 656/sq m/year in, up 3%. In Paris CBD, rents have also increased to reach 740/sq m/year, up 4.2% (Figure 6). Amsterdam (7.4%), Stockholm (5%) and London West End (3.1%) were amongst the other markets to record increases. Demand/supply imbalance for lower priced grade A stock drives rental growth Rental growth is being driven by increasing competition for prime stock; occupiers are seeking to secure space in anticipation of a shortage of grade A stock, as well as upgrade space at a modest cost before rents increase further. However, a lack of rental movement in 12 out of the 21 markets, in addition to a slight 1% drop in Berlin, meant that rental growth across the European markets was generally modest in. Figure 5 European office rental growth 4% 2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -1 Figure 6 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 European prime office rents /sq m/year London (WE) Paris (CBD) Moscow London (City) Luxembourg Milan Stockholm Frankfurt Oslo Dublin Amsterdam Edinburgh Kyiv Istanbul Madrid Warsaw Brussels Berlin Prague Bucharest Budapest Q/Q rental growth (LHS) Rolling yr/yr rental growth (RHS) 0 400 800 1200 1 5% -5% -1-15% -2-25% Q2 www.dtz.com 4
Moscow London (WE) Kyiv Warsaw London (City) Milan Brussels Amsterdam Edinburgh Luxembourg London (WE) London (City) Warsaw Moscow Kyiv Edinburgh Dublin Budapest Bucharest Brussels 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 Outlook Modest rental growth forecast for the remainder of We forecast average rental growth for at 6.8%. Having already increased by circa 5.4% since the end of, further growth in Q4 is likely to be modest (Figure 7). Improved rental outlook for European office markets in 2011 We have revised up our prime rental growth forecast to reflect a more positive outlook for European offices. As a result, European prime rental growth for 2011 has been upgraded to around 4.7%, from 3.7% in our previous forecast round (Figure 7). Figure 7 European Office Rental Forecast (Index) 1999=100 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Current Forecast Previous Forecast While growth is forecast in 13 of the 21 cities, our revision is anticipated to be most keenly felt in London s West End (11.8%) and City (9.1%) office markets, where high demand for a decreasing supply of grade A space is forecast to drive rental growth (Figure 8 and Map 1). A more robust economic outlook in Central and Eastern Europe markets is expected to filter through to stronger rental growth in markets such as Warsaw (6.3%), Moscow (5.6%) and Kyiv (5.4%) (Map 1). Figure 8 Best and worst forecast rental growth 2011 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 We forecast zero growth in the eight remaining cities in our sample. Stagnation comes as a result of cuts in government spending (Map 1). Moscow, London, Kyiv and Warsaw expected to outperform in the longer term European rents are forecast to increase by around 15.8% over the forecast period (2011-2014). We expect the highest levels of rental growth to occur in areas least affected by high levels of public dept and cuts to government spending, thus affecting a rebound in Central and Eastern European countries (Figure 9). London s position as a global market and a key location for financial occupiers is expected to aid rental growth in both the West End (6.7%) and City (5.3%) Figure 9 Top Five Bottom Five Best and worst forecast rental growth 2011-2014 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Showing lower growth are non cyclical markets such as Milan (1.5%), Brussels (1.3%) and Amsterdam (1.1%); where growth tends to be less volatile and more stable. Top Five Bottom Five www.dtz.com 5
Economic Overview Strong H1 giving way to slower pace of recovery Europe recorded very strong growth in the first half of, buoyed by inventory restocking and a resurgence of global trade. Figure 10 Growth in industrial production (Index, Dec 2005 = 100) 115 110 The performance was driven in large part by the performance of the German economy, which outstripped all expectations to record growth of 2.2% in Q2, the fastest quarterly growth since reunification. Growth in Germany was broad based, with a rapid bounce back in industrial production a key feature (Figure 10). 105 100 95 90 85 Looking ahead however, the outlook is for growth to slow as the effect of stimulus measures and restocking fades. Furthermore, with public debt at high levels across Europe, spending cuts are necessary and will affect growth. In this environment, businesses will remain cautious regarding investment and hiring, and the private sector recovery is expected to be subdued until 2012 (Figure 11). Greater divergence in economic recovery Germany Eurozone Source: EcoWin Figure 11 Selected national GDP growth forecasts 6% 4% 2% While all major European economies suffered a substantial downturn, the pace of recovery is expected to differ. Germany and France are expected to lead the way, while the troubled economies of Southern Europe continue to endure recession. Substantial measures have already been taken to safeguard financial stability, investors remain wary of exposure to these countries (Figure 12), and the withdrawal of foreign credit lines will continue to weigh on growth. In Central and Eastern Europe, Poland is leading the way. Having stood out as one of very few countries to avoid a contraction in output during, Poland continues to perform strongly given its close trade linkages with Germany and resilient consumer spending. -2% -4% -6% -8% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Germany France United Kingdom Ireland Spain Poland Source: Oxford Economics Figure 12 5 year government bond yields 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% Source: EcoWin Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Greece Italy Portugal Spain Germany France www.dtz.com 6
Appendix Map 1 European office prime rental values ; and 2011 outlook Prime rent ( /sq m/year) 168-275 276-325 326-500 501-1,031 Prime rental growth 2011 0. 0.1-3.9% 4.0-5.9% 6.0-11.8% Oslo Stockholm Edinburgh Moscow Dublin London (City) Amsterdam Berlin Warsaw Brussels Kyiv London (WE) Frankfurt Prague Paris (CBD) Luxembourg Budapest Milan Bucharest Madrid Istanbul Source:DTZ Research, ESRI www.dtz.com 7
Definitions Availability Total floorspace in properties marketed as available to let, whether physically vacant or occupied, and ready for occupation either immediately, or, in the case of occupied space/new developments, within the next 6 months. Availability Ratio Total space currently available as a percentage of the total stock of floorspace. Development Pipeline Comprises two elements: 1. Floorspace in course of development, defined as buildings being constructed or comprehensively refurbished to grade A standard. 2. Schemes with the potential to be built in the future, though having secured planning permission/development certification. Grade A Floorspace Buildings newly developed or comprehensively refurbished (involving structural alteration, and/or the substantial replacement of the main services and finishes), not previously occupied, including sublet space not previously occupied. Net Absorption The change in the total of occupied floorspace over a specified period of time, either positive or negative. New Supply Total marketed grade A floorspace which is ready for occupation either now or within the next six months. Ready for occupation means practical completion, where either the building has been issued with an occupancy permit, where required, or where only fit-out is lacking. Prelet A development leased or sold prior to completion. Prime Rent The highest rent that could be achieved for a typical building/unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location to a tenant with a good (i.e. secure) covenant. (NB. This is a net rent, excluding service charge or tax, and is based on a standard lease, excluding exceptional deals for that particular market.) Prime Yield The best (i.e. lowest) yield which could be expected for a typical building/unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location leased to a tenant with a good (i.e. secure) covenant. (NB. This is a net yield, which uses net income, after deducting all non-recoverable expenditure, divided by the purchase cost, excluding transaction costs and taxes. Stock Total accommodation in the commercial and public sectors both occupied and vacant. Take-up Floorspace acquired for occupation, including the following: (i) offices let/sold to an eventual occupier; (ii) developments pre-let/sold to an occupier; (iii) owner occupier purchase of a freehold or long leasehold. (NB. This includes subleases but excludes lease renewals.) Vacancy Floorspace that is empty - i.e. not occupied. It may be being marketed, or it may not (whether because a lessee is not occupying, it is being refurbished, or deliberately being left empty by the landlord). www.dtz.com 8
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