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1 DTZ Research INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE The annual transaction volume increased by 7 Finland 5 February 2015 Contents Economic Overview 2 Investment Market 3 Major Transactions 5 The transaction volume of the published deals was approximately 4.0 billion in. Over 35% of the total transaction volume was made by foreign investors. We expect that the share of foreign investors will remain at the same level, or even increase during Private property vehicles and companies have clearly been the most active investor sectors in, accounting for over 8 of the transaction volume. In the retail sector was the most active sector measured by transaction volume. Whereas in, the industrial sector was the most active. The prime office yield is currently at 4.75%, the prime retail yield is at 4.8% and the prime logistics yield is at 6.75%. The prime yields are estimated to further decrease during The Quantitative Easing by the European Central bank is boosting European property s attractiveness, as it pushes down bond yields and forward interest rates. Author Ville Suominen Analyst +358 (0) ville.suominen@dtz.com Contacts Magali Marton Head of EMEA Research +33 (0) magali.marton@dtz.com Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research +44 (0) hans.vrensen@dtz.com Figure 1 Transaction Volume, bn Domestic purchaser International purchaser % International Investment Market Update 1

2 E E2015 E2016 Finland Economic Overview The GDP is estimated to increase by 0.2% in The Finnish export sector is estimated to improve during the latter part of 2015 as a result of global economic growth and a weaker Euro, compared to the dollar and other major currencies. The GDP decreased by 0.2% in and by 1.2% in. The prolonged Ukraine crisis and the sanctions directed at Russia, have caused uncertainty for the Finnish export sector and weakened the export to Russia. The weakened exports have kept down the GDP growth. In 2015 private spending is estimated to continue to decrease by 0.1%, due to modest salary increases, weak employment situation, and slightly higher taxes. The inflation rate estimated at 0.9% in The inflation estimate for is 1.. The inflation rate was 2.8% in 2012 and 1.5% in. The third consecutive year with a stagnant economy has naturally affected the employment situation. The unemployment rate is estimated to increase to 8.6% in and to further increase to 8.8% in The European central bank quantitative easing (QE) is estimated to keep the interest rate at a low level during The ECB QE program is however expected to increase inflation. The Finnish 10-year government bond rate has continued to decline, due to ECB buying of government bond. Figure 2 Main Economic Indicators 1 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -1 Source: Bank of Finland, Danske Bank, Nordea, and Handelsbanken Figure 3 3 Month Euribor and 10 Year Government Bond 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Unemployment GDP Inflation Private spending Source: Bank of Finland Euribor 3 month Yr.Gov.Bond Investment Market Update 2

3 Finland Investment Market Transaction Volume The transaction volume of the published deals was some 4.0 billion in. The transaction volume made the most active year since Moreover, the transaction volume increased almost 7 compared to ( 2.4 billion). The activity of international investors is currently at the highest level since In the share of international investors exceed 35% and remained at the same level in. During several new international players entered the Finnish property market. Major Deals in The largest deal in the fourth quarter was when a joint venture of Trevian Asset Management, Cording Real Estate Group, and H.I.G. Capital, purchased a retail portfolio, from a fund managed by AXA Real Estate Investment Management. The portfolio comprised 123 retail assets. The purchase price was 107 million. The largest single property deal in the fourth quarter was, when a fund managed by AXA Real Estate Investment Management purchased MREC Espoon Keilalahden FG-talo, located in the Keilalahti office area, from Exilion Real Estate I fund. The property is a part of Microsoft Mobile s complex consisting of three properties. The total lettable area of the building is some 17,000 sq m. The purchase price was 64.8 million and the net initial yield was approximately 5.8%. Another significant single property deal was when AFIAA Swiss Foundation purchased a landmark building, Brondankulma, in the Helsinki CBD. The property was sold by CBRE Global Investors. The purchase price was over 60 million. The building covers a total of 8,230 sq m and the main tenant is Hannes Snellman, a major law firm. Transactions by Investor Type The most active investors in have been private property vehicles and private property companies, accounting for over 8 of the transaction volume. The share of quoted investors (quoted property companies and vehicles) slightly increased in last quarter of. Out of the annual transaction volume the share was some 11%. The share of the Finnish institutional investors increased in, however they represented only 4% of the transaction volume in. This is due to the strategy adopted by many, to either move the investments from direct to indirect investments, or to keep the property portfolio at existing levels. Figure 4 Transaction Volume, bn Figure 5 Quarterly Transaction Volume, mn Figure Domestic purchaser International purchaser 0 % International Transactions by Investor Group 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % Domestic International 0 % Institution Private Property Company Other Private Property Vehicle Quoted Investor Investment Market Update 3

4 F2015 Finland Transactions by Property Sector The office sector has typically been the largest sector measured by the transaction volume. In, retail and residential were the most active sectors, representing some 35% and 25% respectively. On annual level the industrial sector was the most active in (3). Office and retail sectors represented some 2, respectively. Transactions by Region Usually, Southern Finland, especially the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA), has clearly been the most active region in the Finnish property investment market. In, over 6 of the transaction volume occurred in Southern Finland. In, over 5 of the transaction volume were multiregional portfolio deals. The share of the deals in Southern Finland were some 43% in. Average Lot Size Average lot size in was just over 20 million. However, the deals over 50 million represented over 7 of the total transaction volume in. In the average lot size was some 30 million. Prime Yields The prime office yield is currently at 4.75%, the prime retail yield is at 4.8%, and the prime logistics yield is at 6.75%. The spread between Finnish government bonds and the prime office yield was around 3.8% in the fourth quarter. Outlook DTZ Research estimates that the prime yields will further decrease during There are clear signs that the share of foreign investors in the Finnish market will remain at the same level as in, or even increase. Foreign investors have during recent years mainly been interested in core assets, however with the increased demand investors is likely to move to more opportunistic assets as well. European Central Bank s decision made in January 2015 will increase the supply of funding and will keep the interest rates low. Hence, the real estate investment will remain attractive. Figure 7 Transactions by Property Sector 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % Office Retail Industrial Figure 8 Transactions by Region 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % Southern Finland Northern Finland Multi-Regional Figure 9 Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) Prime Yields 9% 8% 7% Residential Healthcare Other/Mixed Use Western Finland Eastern Finland HMA 6% 5% 4% Office Retail Logistics Investment Market Update 4

5 Finland Major Transactions Table 1 Major Office Transactions in MREC Espoon Keilalahden FG-talo Espoo Exilion Real Estate I Ky Fund of AXA Real Estate 17, ,800 Brondankulma Helsinki CBRE Global Investors AFIAA 8,230 > 60 > 7,300 Hippostalo Tampere Senaatti Properties The Tampere Student Housing Foundation 19, Plaza Business Park Presto Vantaa Finnish Paper Workers Union CapMan Nordic Real Estate fund 5,760 n.a. n.a. Table 2 Major Retail Transactions in Portfolio of grocery store properties Portfolio of 123 retail assets 4 share of the Iso Omena Shopping Centre Two retail properties Multi-City Etelä-Suomen Kauppakiinteistöt Oy (Citycon) Multi-City Fund of AXA Real Estate Trevian AM, Cording RE Group, H.I.G. Capital Quorum Kehitysrahasto I Ky n.a. 6.7 n.a. Espoo GIC Real Estate Citycon 63,300 (whole shopping centre) Vantaa and Tampere Unknown OP-Vuokratuotto special investment fund 128, n.a. n.a. n.a. 35 n.a. Table 3 Major Industrial Transactions in Mäntsälä logistics centre Mäntsälä Capman Real Estate II American Realty Capital Trust 74,400 n.a. n.a. Investment Market Update 5

6 Finland Table 4 Other Major Transactions in Three carsale/workshop properties Multi-City NV Property Fund I Ky Sagax AB 26, ,060 Taaleritehdas residential property funds I and III (509 apartments) Multi-City Taaleritehtaan Pääomarahastot Oy LähiTapiola Group's insurance companies n.a. n.a. n.a. Portfolio of five office buildings, one restaurant, and two undeveloped sites Turku Municipality of Turku Turun Teknologiakiinteistöt Oy n.a. n.a. n.a. Investment Market Update 6

7 EMEA Country Head Finland John Forrester CEO +44 (0) Janne Eriksson Managing Director, +358 (0) Valuation Juha Mäki-Lohiluoma Director, +358 (0) Valuation & Research Ville Suominen Analyst +358 (0) Capital Markets Arno Jaulas +358 (0) Capital Markets Ilkka Kujanpää +358 (0) Letting & Occupier Services Raul von Denffer +358 (0) Letting & Occupier Services Hanna Lamadon +358 (0) Retail Jari Jäntti Director, +358 (0) Disclaimer This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ. DTZ 2015 To see a full list of all our publications please go to Global Headquarters 77 West Wacker Drive 18th Floor Chicago, IL USA phone fax info@dtz.com DTZ Finland Oy Itämerenkatu Helsinki Finland phone +358 (0) info@dtz.fi

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