Overview of Energy Sector in Balkan region Damir Pešut Energy institute Hrvoje Pozar Croatia
Balkan region Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina Serbia Monte negro Kosovo Albania Macedonia
Political Energy Context of the Region In the strictest sense, the region consists of the countries included into Energy Community, which did not reach the necessary administrative and economic level required by EU due to its objective and subjective reasons Countries are currently in the various EU membership joining status Energy characteristics of the region are not closed within its borders, but there is a need and interest in marketing communications with other regional markets
The Main Regional Energy Features and its Links Toward the EU Energy demand is constantly increasing The SEE region is a great importer of the natural gas and oil, while in some countries and electricity too Some countries have possibilities to exceed their electricity production demand needs Natural gas and oil sources are basically out of the European and SEE Region territory The EU is importer of all energy forms and it is interested to crossover electricity and other energy forms from or through the SEE region countries Questions on security of energy supply are highly expressed
BASIC INDICATORS - RESOURCES AND EL. PRODUCTION For the most part, taken advantage of their hydroelectric potential Possess substantial reserves of coal or lignite. Studies on the construction of thermoelectric plants in the region have given priority to those plants using cheap coal or lignite. It is generally thought that the countries in the region will try to maintain a high level of security and self-sufficiency in the production of electricity and the application of environmental protection criteria Natural gas might have a significant role in electricity production The nuclear option has been considered as a means to reduce CO2 emissions
BASIC INDICATORS o - TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY In TPES the structure of energy consumption is somewhat more unfavorable as compared to the EU-27. Coal has a 2,3 times higher share than in EU-27, while the consumption of natural gas is 50 percent lower than in the EU-27. The EU Member States make up for the lower share of coal with higher shares of crude oil, natural gas and nuclear energy. Crude Oil 25% Petroleum Products 10% Gas 12% Hydro 7% Combust.Ren ew. Waste 5% Electricity 1% EU-27 Petroleum Products 1,8% Gas 23,1% Nuclear 13,5% Hydro 1,4% Geoth. Solar etc. 0,7% Combust.Ren ew. Waste 4,7% Heat 0,2% Electricity 0,02% Coal 40% Crude Oil 37,3% Coal 17,2%
BASIC INDICATORS o - TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION In TFEC energy shares are similar as to that of the EU-27, the shares of coal, and biomas, almost double than in the EU-27. The share of gas in EU-27 is almost double than in region. It can be assumed that the share of conventional biomass and coal will decrease as the standard of living increases, and that the share of consumption of the more favorable energy sources (natural gas or petroleum products) will in turn increase. Heat 5,6% Coal 7,3% EU-27 Heat 3,3% Coal 4,3% Electricity 18,9% Electricity 22,0% Combust.Ren ew. Waste 7,9% Petroleum Products 44,5% Combust.Ren ew. Waste 4,5% Petroleum Products 46,1% Gas 12,7% Gas 22,7%
BASIC INDICATORS TFC Croatia 27,7% Bosnia and Herzegovina 10,7% Montenegro 2,8% Kosovo 4,9% Macedonia 6,6% Albania 7,4% Serbia 39,9% TPES Montenegro 3% Kosovo 6% Croatia 22% Bosnia and Herzegovina 14% Macedonia 7% Albania 6% Serbia 42%
The Main Electricity Features of the Region Continuous growth of electricity consumption Old age of existing power plants, lack of investments, low energy efficiency A huge technical and non technical losses in particular utilities Low rate on delivered electricity payment Non realistic low prices of the energy social aspect of the prices Security of energy Supply problems, import increase and reduction Significant dependence on hydrology 30% of production is hydro power There are plans but problems is implementation A huge cola reserves (Kosovo, Srbija, B&H) Unused hydro potential There are ongoing nuclear programs (Romania, Bulgaria) and under development Significant potential for wind, solar and biomass energy, apart of potential to increase energy efficiency
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION o In the production of electricity, coal is the dominant energy source, accounting for 73 percent, followed by hydropower with a share of 14 percent. Though those countries with a predominant share of coal have large reserves of this energy resource, an increase in the use of natural gas can be expected in the future, due to ecological requirements and the need to reduce CO2 emissions. Petroleum Products 7,0% EU-27 Coal 36,9% Petroleum Products 3,7% Coal 72,8% Gas 6,4% Combust.Re new. Waste 4,0% Gas 18,6% Hydro 13,8% Hydro 3,4% Nuclear 32,9%
Albania (2007) Kosovo** Macedonia Montenegro Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina Serbia (2007) Romania Bulgaria Italy Greece Austria Hungaria Slovenia Hy Generation Structure 100% 80% thermal Ot 60% Nu 40% Th 20% hydro 0% Source: Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar
TWh Generation, Export import (2009) 40 35 30 25 20 Export-Import Other NPP 15 10 5 TPP HPP Total consumption* 0-5 Albania Kosovo Macedonia Montenegro Croatia BIH Serbia
Region With the Electricity Gap Electricity gap Source: Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar
Electricity Transmission Network of the Region 400 kv Interconnections Existing Under construction Planned Source: Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar
Population 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 x10 3 10 000 5 000 0 1950. 1955. 1960. 1965. 1970. 1975. 1980. 1985. 1990. 1995. 2000. 2005. 2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. Albanija Srbija i Crna Gora Hrvatska Bosna i Hercegovina Makedonija UKUPNO
USD 2000/ cap GDP GDP per capita Austria Estonia 30000 France Germany Greece 25000 20000 Hungary Ireland Italy Malta Netherlands 15000 Portugal Russian Federation Spain 10000 United Kingdom Albania Macedonia 5000 Monte Negro Kosovo 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Srbija Hrvatska Bosna i Hercegovina
TWh Electricity demand and supplay 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 import-export Uvoz-Izvoz nuclear NE natural gas TE plin fuel oil TE lož ulje coal TE ugljen OIE HE Total Ukupna consumption potrošnja 0 2015 2020 2025 2030
Natural gas for electricity production 8000 7000 6000 5000 milijuna m 3 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 with new nuclear Potrošnja plina (s novim NE) Potrošnja without plina new (bez nuclear novih NE)
The Main Features of the Region Natural Gas Natural gas network is developed only in some countries and regions Reduction of domestic production while increasing dependence on import (mainly from Russia) Transit corridor of natural gas supply form Russia and Caspian region toward EU countries Possibilities and needs for LNG terminals development, storages and interconnection pipelines
27 760 Heat market
TOTAL FINAL GAS CONSUMPTION 12 004
TOTAL - TOTAL GAS CONSUMPTION 21 053 9 000 - el. and heat, refinery and non-energy
in excess of 160 billion m 3 /year PEOP TAP IGI + 18 Bcm
LNG Italy: 56 billion m 3 Croatia: 14 billion m 3 Albania:?-10 billion m 3 80 billion m 3
West Balkan Gas Ring Proposal Source: The World Bank
Existing and new transmision pipelines existing planned South Stream year of construction
The Main Energy Features of the Region Crude Oil and Oil Products - Refineries Total installed capacity in the region equates to 203 million tons in 36 refineries Loading factor of the total installed capacities is ~ 85% while in Croatia, Serbia, Albany and Macedonia is significantly lower Modernization of the refineries in last decade has strived toward final product quality improvement, energy efficiency enhancement and diesel production yield increase
Refinery Capacities Sarpom di Trecate 9,0; 6,3 Sannazzaro 10,0; 7,2 Iplom 1,9; 3,5 Cremona Mantova 4,3; 7,5 2,6; 8,4 Livorno 4,2; 12,6 ITALIJA Porto Marghera 4,0; 6,8 Rome 4,3; 7,7 AUSTRIJA Falconara 3,9; 9,7 SLOVENIJA Rijeka 5,0; 5,8 Schwechat 9,6; 6,2 Sisak 4,0; 6,1 HRVATSKA 4,2; - BOSNA I HERCEGOVINA Taranto 5,5; 10,2 Duna 8,1; 10,6 Bosanski Brod CRNA GORA ALBANIJA MAĐARSKA Novi Sad 2,5; 2,5 Ballsh 1,0; - SRBIJA KOSOVO Fier 0,5; 2,4 Pančevo 4,8; 4,9 OKTA 2,5; 4,2 MAKEDONIJA GRČKA RUMUNJSKA Thessaloniki 3,7; 6,7 Arpechim Vega 3,5; 8,3 0,6; 1,9 BUGARSKA Petromidia 4,8; 10,7 Petrotel Lukoil 3,5; 9,9 Petrobrazi 4,5; 8,8 Lukoil Burgas 7,5; 8,3 Rafo 3,5; 9,5 Sarroch 14,8;8,2 Rafinery name Capcity; NCI Gela 4,9; 13,1 Milazzo 10,0; 5,5 Augusta 9,2; 11,5 ISAB 15,7; 9,3 Corinth 5,4; 11,9 Elefsina 5,0; 1,5 Aspropyrgos 7,5; 10,6 Source: Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar
Petroleum products flows
The Main Energy Features of the SEE Region Crude oil & oil products consumption Total consumption of the oil products in SEE region is on the level of 155 million of tones yearly, while most of them is consumed in Italy The future brings slightly decreasing or steady consumption in countries like Austria, Slovenia and Italy, while all other countries could expect significant growth Extremely emerging markets regarding oil products consumption are Bosnia & Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo an Albany Consumption grater than 1000 kg/habitant in 2007 have achieved Greece, Austria, Italy, and Croatia, while consumption lower than 500 kg/habitant is recorded in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Romania and Albany Biggest net exporter is Italy with around 16 millions of tone, while biggest importers are Austria with 5 and Slovenia with 2,7 millions of tones Threshold of net export equates to 15 millions of tones a year
Total consumption of petroleum products (kg/inhabitant)
Total consumption of petroleum products (1 000 t)
Total production of petroleum products (1 000 t)
The Main Regional Energy Features and its Links Toward the EU Energy demand is constantly increasing The SEE region is a great importer of the natural gas and oil, while in some countries and electricity too Some countries have possibilities to exceed their electricity production demand needs Natural gas and oil sources are basically out of the European and SEE Region territory The EU is importer of all energy forms and it is interested to crossover electricity and other energy forms from or through the SEE region countries Questions on security of energy supply are highly expressed
Security of Energy Supply The SEE region is in energy deficit and depends on energy imports SEE countries are not enough connected especially when it comes to natural gas utilities Security of energy supply firmly depends on forthcoming electricity production capacities construction, transmission networks connection and pursuing projects of oil and gas supply in the region
What the Energy Community Can Do? Harmonisation of legislation Standardization of regulatory practice Cooperation and experience exchange on the energy efficiency and RES projects Experiences and know how exchanges
What the Energy Community Can t Do? EC can not take responsibilities of the SEE countries Energy community cannot resolve particular country problems Countries of the Energy Community cannot move on faster in reform provision and institutional changes of energy sector than EU Energy community cannot be investor
Possible Regional Cooperation Opportunities Transmission networks linkage (electricity, natural gas and oil) within region countries Harmonization of the legislative framework and institutional capacity building necessary for market development (Energy community goal) Development of the regional energy stock exchange Development of the regional security system Development of the regional stimulative energy investment environment Expert and scientific institutions linkage
View on Regional Cooperation in Energetics The SEE region has to be observed from its energy features point of view, and not according to political needs and particular interest Countries of the SEE regions have to take responsibilities for mutual linkage and pursue transmission utilities development For each an every utility energy form type it is highly necessary to develop appropriate plan and to take responsibility for their realization Perform linking according to the principle of an unknown buyer, while the cost of connecting has to be calculated jointly in the transmission price of the energy form for each country Develop mechanism for regulated transmission & transit tariff calculations on real economic prices as a major premise of connecting transport networks
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