A Spotlight on. Cem Ali ATILGAN Atılgan Energy Ltd. June 3-4, Budapest

Transcription

1 A Spotlight on Turkish Electricity market by Cem Ali ATILGAN Atılgan Energy Ltd. June 3-4, Budapest

2 Outline Section 1 : Brief Turkish Electricity Market Overview Turkey at a Glance Comparison of Turkey with CEE & SEE Impact of Financial turmoil What to expect for 2010 and beyond Section 2 : Domestic & Cross Border power Trading in Turkey The domestic wholesale electricity market & power trading The cross border capacity & opportunities Section 3 : Other Investment Opportunities in the Electricty Market Renewables investment in Turkey Privatization of state owned distribution and Generation Units 2

3 Regions accessible from Turkey- Potential trading partners

4 Turkey: Critical Facts about Energy Market Market Facts: Generation capacity: MW as of April 2009 Consumption: 198 TWh in 2008 One of the highest growing electricity markets in the world; an average of 8% per annum during the last 30 years. Share of primary resources in electricity generation were 48% natural gas, 29% coal &17% hydro in 2008 Turkey imports 75% of its energy need 4

5 Installed capacity wrt to Primary Resources (2009) Thermic Wind Hydro Total TEIAS, Atilgan Energy,

6 57% of State thermic plants are over 20 years of age years years years years 30 + years 6

7 The demand growth and effect of Global crises % % 8% 150 6% 100 4% 2% 50 0% TEIAS, Atilgan Energy 2008 Consumption (TWh) Increase % -2% 7

8 Market Ownership - Generation Large hydro+ renewables 14% Thermic 48% Private Sector 51% Thermic 35% 51% of total generation in 2008 (100,5 TWh) supplied by private sector State-owned generation Private Sector generation Renewables 3% TEİAŞ, Atilgan Energy, 2009

9 Legal & Regulatory Framework Energy market liberalization is in progress since the introduction of electricity and natural gas markets laws and the establishment of EMRA the independent authority The model resembles the British system Currently there are 36 wholesale companies, electricity generation companies that are licensed and in operation. Turkey trades electircity with Greece, Syria, Iraq, Iran and other eastern neighbors Balancing and settlement market (the Pool ) became operational by August Day-ahead market operations will start within 2009 New Feed-in Tariff is underway Preparation for the New subsidies regarding Energy Savings are in the pipeline 9

10 Favorable demographics 10

11 Republic of TURKEY & Eastern Europe GWH POPULATION ANNUAL GENERATION GWh European Union s 6 th largest trading partner, Largest economy in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, the Black Sea basin and the Middle East Atilgan Energy,

12 Glimmers of hope, but tough times ahead New built home sales Quarterly basis I II III IV I 105,0 95,0 85,0 75,0 65,0 55,0 45,0 Reel Sector Confidence Index 30,00% Industrial Zone Energy Demand % Change on Monthly basis 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% -10,00% -20,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% -10,00% -20,00% -30,00% January 08 February 08 March 08 April 08 May 08 June 08 July 08 August 08 Industrial Zones Electricity Consumption % change September 08 October 08 November 08 December 08 January 09 February 09 March 09 April 09 Industrial Zones Natural Gas Consumption % Change 12

13 Turkish Electricity Market Outlook in Near Term 2009 Expectations and Developments No material new capacity started lately Eligible consumer limit dropped to 0,4 GWh/a from 1.2 GWh/a Day ahead trading will start by the end of 2009, (dry run next month) A new amendment to the Renewables Law for solar power & all renewables is underway Quarterly demand dropped 6,7% YoY due to global economic crises, year end figure is forecasted by -4% More than half of the distribution regions tender process will be started It is targeted to start the privatization process of the generation units by the end of

14 Industry creates half of the demand (2007) Households 24% Industrial 48% commercials 15% Other 7% Public offices 4% Street lighting 3% 14

15 GDP vs Electricity Demand in Turkey, % change YoY basis 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% % -10% GDP billion Usd PPP Elect Generation TWh OECD factbook, 2009, Atılgan Energy 15

16 Turkish Electricity Market Outlook in Near Term 2010 & Beyond Turkey is expected to join UCTE, discussions on Energy chapter Privatization of state distribution and generation assets Increase in Cross-border trading volume Severe supply deficit postponed to 2012 Further decrease of eligibility limit to zero by 2013 and 2015 By 2020, the share of renewables in total generation will reach to 25% The wind generation will reach to MW The geothermal generation capacity will reach to 600 MW Most of the solar and all the hydro generation capacity will be exploited Expected Outcome HIGHER VOLATILITY ===> Higher trading margins HIGHER PRICES ===> Higher asset valuations 16

17 Domestic Power Trading Before the Pool: There were active trading with bi-lateral contracts Trading volume was up to 1,800 GWh/month for 1,123 eligible customers (excluding the captive customers of autoproducer companies). After the Pool (since August 2006): Electricity prices were driven up due to growing demand of state distribution companies High prices in the pool accepted as benchmark price for small scale renewables

18 Public utilities subsidied power prices for years HighestBaseload price posted as 98,14 Eur/MWH in Aug08 80 all time average 73,88 euro/mwh) lowest Baseload price posted as 59,17 eur/mwh in Feb during recession Eur/MWh 20 0 Atılgan Energy, August 06 September 06 October 06 November 06 December 06 January 07 February 07 March 07 April 07 May.07 June 07 July 07 August 07 September 07 October 07 November 07 December 07 January 08 February 08 March 08 April 08 May.08 june 08 July 08 August 08 September 08 october 08 November 08 DECEMBER 09 JANUARY 09 FEBRUARY 09 MARCH 09 APRIL 09 Public Dist Co. Retail Price Industrial w/o Surcharges POOL Baseload Average All time POOL Baseload Average

19 Flat retail prices by public sector hindered new investments New capacity addition GWh Increase In demand GWh Change ın Reserve capacity GWh Atılgan Energy,

20 Ineffcient Wholesale Market design FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM Alarmingly low reserve margin resulting in high pool prices Bi-lateral domestic trading market vanished since the beginning of the Pool in 2006 New regulation needed for aggregation and portfolio balancing FUNDAMENTAL SOLUTION Automatic Pricing Mechanism protects private sector utilities from uneven competition of state utilities Success in local market trading depends on power imports and/or own asset capacity

21 Turkey and UCTE UCTE system 24 Countries 500 mn people 640 Gw installed capacity 2600 Twh consumption Turkish System 75 mn people 42 Gw İnstalled Capacity 198 Twh consumption 21

22 Turkey- Neighbours Interconnection Single Line Diagrams UCTE Bulgarian Interconnections Georgian ınterconnection Armenian Interconnection Italy TR Azerbaycan Interconnection Greek Interconnection Iran Interconnection Iran Interconnection Syrian Interconnection Iraq Interconnection Atılgan Energy, 2009

23 Technical Info of Interconnections Neighbor Country Transmission Capacity Status SYRIA 400 MW 230 MW State-owned TETAS exports power to Syria, from time to time. IRAQ 300 MW exports A private sector company is the exclusive exporter on the transmission line until end of Furher transmission capacity expansion in progress. IRAN N/A 195 MW Two lines; Baskale-Khoy & DoguBeyazıt-Bazargan can carry upto 200 MW. ARMENIA 480 MVA It has potential for being a very active transmission line for imports. Exports However, no activity recorded yet due to bi-lateral political relations. AZERBAIJAN- 100 MW 40 MW - Iğdır-Babek interconneciton is a 477 MCM & can handle 110 MVA in NAHCIVAN exports 70 MW summer time GEORGIA 150 MW 150 MW State-owned TETAS has a 2+2 year agreement until 2010 to export and exports imports import power. For imports, ca. 50 MW of transmission capacity is idle. BULGARIA 700 MW 550 MW Currently idle. GREECE N/A 250 MW imports A new transmission line between Babeski-Fillipi is a 3*765 3B cardinal and can handle 2070 MVA during fall and spring season. Highest transaction recorded was 150 MW from Turkey to Greece.

24 Cross-border Activity by TETAŞ Gwh 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 Georgia Imports Greece Exports Azerbaijan Syria Turkmenistan TETAS, Atılgan Energy

25 Per Capita Electricity Consumption Comparison (2007) COUNTRIES PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (KWH) WORLD AVERAGE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES USA TURKEY TURKEY (by 2020) 5.200

26 Gross electricity demand* growth per year % RO BG GR TR RS AL KV BA ME MK CR SEE EU15 IT Average SEE RO Romania BG Bulgaria GR Greece TR Turkey RS Serbia AL Albania KV Kosovo ME Montenegro BA Bosnia & Herzogovina MK Macedonia CR Croatia IT Italy 26

27 GWh Expected to show the highest growth in nominal terms until RS RS TR TR GR GR BG BG RO RO RO Romania BG Bulgaria TR Turkey RS Serbia KV Kosovo BA Bosnia & Herzogovina MK Macedonia CR Croatia GR Greece AL Albania ME Montenegro 27

28 High Potential for Renewables General Renewable Energy Potential in Turkey SOURCE Wind Potential Capacity Highly efficient :8.000 MW Medium efficient: MW Geothermal MW suitable for power generation Biomass 8,6 MTEP Wind Potential İn Turkey Wind Class Wind Speed (W/m2) Wind Speed (m/s) Total potential Capacity (MW) ,0-7,5 29, , , ,0-9, > Solar 380 Twh/annum (4800 km2) Turkey Solar Map total 47,847 Regional Distribution of Solar Energy Potential REGION TOTAL SOLAR RADIATION (kwh/m2 - year) SUNSHINE DURATION (HOURS/YEAR) Southeastern Anatolia Mediterrannean Eastern Anatolia Central Anatolia Wester anatolia Nortwesterrn Anatolia Nothern Anatolia

29 Why Have Capacity in Turkey? Turkey needs 3,000 MW new capacity every year in the next 10 years Buy opportunities from distressed investors To achieve financial gain from the expected appreciation in asset values To support domestic trading To source UCTE electricity from Turkey without the cost/risk of emissions obligations But this window will not last long before asset valuations are driven up by: Expected recovery in the economy Government starting to offer concessions to foster new capacity development Goverment to enact a new Feed-in-Tariff for Renewables Market entry by international energy companies

30 Other Major Upcoming Asset Activity Expected Start Date Power Generation Tenders for state owned plants where 3,586 MW of total installed capacity will be re-furbished and 2,210 MW total new capacity will be built Privatization of ca. 18,000 MW state-owned generation portfolio Geothermal resources will be tendered in BO model 1H2010 1H2010 Already started Electricity Distribution regions Privatization of regional electricity distribution utilities (completed ; almost 40% of cities) Already started 30

31 Some of the Major Asset Activity in Turkish Electricity Sector Verbundof Austria acquired 50% of EnerjiSA for USD 410m (March 2007), parties won the Ankara electricity distribution region privatization tender for 1.2 billion USD Belgian; ıtalian, German energy firms acquired wind energy project comp anies totalling 2000 MW Iberdrola opened up its Turkey office for 1000 MW new capacity installation Enelteamed up with Turcas for installing two new 800 MWs NG fired plants RWE declared groundbraking for 800 MW Natural gas fired along renewables interest AES acquired 51% of IC Cecen energy holding for installing new capacity and trading CeZacquired 33% of Akenerji, parties won the Sakarya distribution region privatizaiton tender for 600 million USD Statkraft of Norway acquired 95% of Yeşil Enerji Cogentrixof Goldman Scahs andtaşyapı energy formed a Joint Venture to develop MW energy projects in Turkey 31

32 Thank You Atılgan Energy Jun 3-4, 2009 Budapest