Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2015-2025 Hybrid and pure electric vehicles for land, water and air Dr Peter Harrop and Raghu Das IDTechEx www.idtechex.com
Contents Page 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1 1.1. The value market for electric vehicles EVs of all types 1 1.2. IDTechEx electric vehicles market forecasts 2015-2025 2 1.3. Batteries and motors numbers 2015-2025 14 1.4. League table of largest EV manufacturers 15 1.5. Market sectors and technology trends 16 1.6. Small and Medium Enterprises SME come to the fore 19 1.7. Numbers of manufacturers 20 1.8. Mark ups through the value chain 20 1.9. Electric cars many very different types 22 1.9.1. Pure electric cars 23 1.9.2. Car-like vehicles not homologated as cars 23 1.9.3. Plug-in vehicle sales 26 1.10. Market by territory 29 1.10.1. Global 29 1.10.2. Europe 29 1.10.3. China 31 1.10.4. USA 33 1.11. Lessons from EV related events 35 2. INTRODUCTION 45 2.1. Definitions and scope of this report 45 2.1.1. Organisations involved in the EV industry value chain 46 2.1.2. Commonality 46 2.1.3. Key components and systems 47 2.1.4. Batteries 47 2.1.5. Efficiency 62 2.2. Hybrid electric vehicles 63 2.2.1. Here come range extenders 64 2.2.2. Structural components 64 2.3. Benefits 64 2.3.1. How green are electric vehicles really? 65 2.3.2. Contrast global automotive production 2012: major polluter 68 3. HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS 71 3.1. What is included 71 3.2. Challenges 71 3.3. Listing of manufacturers 72
3.3.1. Statistics for all types of industrial lift truck 72 3.3.2. Manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs 75 3.4. Survey of expected powertrains including EV options 75 3.5. Market size 77 4. LIGHT INDUSTRIAL, BUSES AND OTHER COMMERCIAL EVS 79 4.1. What is included 79 4.1.1. Large and diverse sector 79 4.1.2. Mainly on-road 79 4.1.3. Move to cities 79 4.1.4. Hybrid and pure electric trend 80 4.1.5. Sub categories 80 4.2. Buses 81 4.2.1. Vans, pick-up trucks and larger on-road trucks 82 4.3. Market drivers 82 4.4. Airport EVs: Ground Support Equipment GSE 83 4.4.1. Airbus signs MoU to develop airliner electric taxi system 85 4.5. Small people-movers 86 4.6. Light industrial aids 86 4.7. Listing of manufacturers 87 5. MOBILITY FOR THE DISABLED 91 5.1. Compelling and enduring need 91 5.2. The demographic time-bomb 91 5.2.1. Ageing population, obesity and the dependent elderly 92 5.2.2. Laws make mobility easier 93 5.3. Types of mobility vehicle 93 5.3.2. Interchina Industry Group China 95 5.4. Listing of manufacturers 96 5.4.2. Growth by creating new markets 98 6. TWO WHEELED EVS AND ALLIED VEHICLES 99 6.1. What is included 99 6.1.1. China unprecedented growth of electric two wheelers 99 6.1.2. Other countries 102 6.2. Prices and performances compared 104 6.2.2. Hybrid motorcycles 106 6.3. Market drivers 107 6.3.1. Bicycles and electric bicycles 107 6.3.2. The big winners in western markets 108 6.4. Statistics for all bicycles 110 6.5. Listing of manufacturers 111
6.5.1. China 113 6.6. Forecasts 115 7. CAR-LIKE VEHICLES NOT HOMOLOGATED AS CARS: MICROEV, QUADRICYCLE, E-TRIKE, NEV, GOLF CAR 117 7.1. Many names, common factors 117 7.2. Car-like vehicles that evade restrictions, taxes and other costs 120 7.3. Estrima Birò MicroEV Quadricycle removable battery 122 7.4. Philippines: big new commitments to e-trikes 124 7.5. Listing of manufacturers beyond golf cars 126 7.6. Golf cars 128 7.6.1. What is included 128 7.6.2. Market drivers 129 7.6.3. Prices and profits 130 7.6.4. Listing of manufacturers 130 7.6.5. Forecasts 131 8. PURE ELECTRIC AND HYBRID CARS 133 8.1. The market for electric cars 133 8.1.1. Definitions 133 8.1.2. Cars as part of the big picture 134 8.1.3. Further details of e-car trends 134 8.1.4. League table of top 13 electric vehicle companies 137 8.1.5. Awkward tipping point 137 8.1.6. Forecasting challenges 139 8.2. Disruptive change and merging of all parts 140 8.3. Range extenders including fuel cells 142 8.4. Batteries 143 8.5. Electric motors 146 8.6. Power electronics 147 8.6.1. Increased performance and complexity 147 8.7. Supercapacitors: more than meets the eye 148 8.7.1. Across batteries in cars 148 8.7.2. Completely replacing batteries in hybrid cars 150 8.7.3. Across fuel cells in cars 150 8.8. Progress of Toyota and Tesla 151 8.8.1. Market and technology priorities 151 8.8.2. Toyota simplifies priorities and Tesla lands Gigafactory partnership 152 9. MILITARY 157 9.1. Examples of military EVs 157 9.1.1. Hummer USA / China 158
9.1.2. Quantum Technologies USA Aggressor AMV 158 9.1.3. US Army trucks etc ZAP, Columbia ParCar USA 159 9.1.4. Oshkosh Truck Corp USA 159 9.1.5. Plug-in trucks BAE Systems UK 161 9.1.6. Electric robot vehicles USA 162 9.1.7. UQM unmanned combat vehicle USA 162 9.1.8. Balqon Corporation 162 9.2. Electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) 163 9.2.1. Small electrical UAVs 164 9.2.2. SUAV batteries 165 9.2.3. The most successful electric UAV 166 9.2.4. Micro nano air vehicles 168 9.2.5. Large electrical UAVs 168 9.2.6. COM-BAT robot bat USA 169 9.3. Examples of military EVs in the water 170 9.3.1. US Naval Undersea Warfare Center 170 9.4. Manufacturers of military EVs 171 9.5. Forecasts 172 10. MARINE 173 10.1.1. Hybrid and pure electric tugboats 173 10.2. Market segments 176 10.2.1. Total market 176 10.2.2. Underwater 176 10.2.3. On the water 177 10.3. Commonality with land EVs 178 10.3.1. Grants for land and water 178 10.3.2. Effect of land EV manufacturers entering marine 178 10.4. Market drivers 178 10.4.1. Pollution laws back electric boats India, Europe, USA 179 10.4.2. Energy harvesting superyacht UK 179 10.4.3. Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) Europe, USA 181 10.5. Manufacturers by country and product 182 10.6. Selling prices 183 10.7. Forecasts 184 11. AIRCRAFT, MOBILE ROBOTS AND OTHER EVS 185 11.1. Definition 185 11.2. Market drivers 185 11.3. Listing of other manufacturers by country and product 186 11.4. Market size and trends 186 11.4.1. Aircraft Renault, Piccard 187 11.4.2. Solar Impulse 188
11.4.3. Non-military mobile robots USA, UK, Japan 189 11.4.4. The Electrolux Automower Sweden 191 11.4.5. Rescue robots in Germany 192 11.4.6. Robots on Mars 192 11.4.7. Leisure on land 194 11.4.8. Research and hobbyist 195 11.4.9. Electric aircraft for civil use 195 11.4.10. Robotic lawn mowers 195 11.5. Forecasts 197 IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS AND CONSULTANCY 199