AEROSPACE 2050 The Future of Aviation & Space

Transcription

1 AEROSPACE 2050 The Future of Aviation & Space 18th Hamburg Prof Graham Roe Fellow of the RAeS

2 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry CONTENTS Introduction Military Commercial Space Questions

3 Aerospace Introduction The Global Aerospace Industry CONTENTS Introduction Military Commercial Space Questions

4 Aerospace 2050 My Background March 2013

5 Aerospace 2050 The Sum of my Career! 45 years = 17 aircraft types 9 Prime contractors in 6 countries air miles hotel points

6 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry - Military CONTENTS Introduction Military Commercial Space Questions

7 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Military 1970 Vietnam Cold War 1970

8 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Military 1970 Aircraft In Service Just Launched

9 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Military 1970 to 2010 The Royal Air force 1970 to 2010 Major Platforms Personnel Present Present

10 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Military 1970 to 2010 Combat Aircraft 1350 Cost per Unit Military Fighter Aircraft (Real 2008) Millions Spitfire (1943) F-4 Phantom (1968) Tornado (1993) Typhoon (2018) Years/Aircraft

11 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Military 1970 to 2010 Precision Attack 400 Circular Error Feet s 1990 s 2000 s 2010 s 1980 s

12 Aerospace 2050 Military 2010 Annual Sales of Aircraft GDP of CYPRUS Annual Sales of Weapons GDP of GABON $15bn $15.4bn $7bn $7.2bn Fighter Aircraft built worth 170bn 173 countries have Air Forces There is a current active inventory of Military Aircraft in the World

13 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry UK Military Air Operations 2010 Expeditionary Maritime Protection of UK Airspace

14 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry UK Military Post SDSR 2010 Expeditionary Maritime Protection of UK Airspace

15 Aerospace 2050 Military 2010 Business Trends Multi Activity Contracts Service Provision TLCM Offset

16 Aerospace 2050 Aerospace 2050 Military The Global Aerospace Industry The Price of Combat Aircraft Cost per Unit Military Fighter Aircraft (Real 2008) Millions Advanced Trainer Bomber Aircraft Electronic Platform Aircraft Fighter / Strike Aircraft Primary Trainer Aircraft Transport/Tanker Aircraft 4% 10% 2% 4% 7% 4% B2 $2.2Bn 0 Spitfire (1943) F-4 Phantom (1968) Tornado (1993) Typhoon (2018) Future+1 (2043) Future+2 (2068) Years/Aircraft

17 Aerospace 2050 Military Threats TECHNOLOGY NEW APPROACHS GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM (GWOT) FAILED STATES

18 Aerospace 2050 Military Technology Global reach Smaller Signature control Autonomy Upper Atmosphere Network Simulation Remote Power Better Management Less Instant effect

19 Aerospace 2050 Military Market Trends Global Accessible Combat aircraft market (new builds & upgrades) US$ millions (2008 prices) Total Committed

20 Aerospace 2050 Military UK Tanker Transport Strike ISTAR

21 Aerospace 2050 Military 2050 New Weapon SPACE MANNED STRIKE UCAV LONG ENDURANCE PERSISTENT STRIKE Hyper Sonics Morphing UAV BULK DELIVERY TIME SENSITIVE STRIKE GLOBAL REACH Micro Air Vehicles

22 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry - Commercial CONTENTS Introduction Military Commercial Space Questions

23 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Commercial In-service B727 BAC 1-11 DC 8 USA B707 Caravelle EUROPE Comet Electra

24 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Commercial 1970 First s DC 10 L10-11 B747 1 st Commercial Flight across Atlantic Concorde goes Supersonic

25 Aerospace 2050 Aerospace 2050 Commercial 1970 to 2010 The Global Aerospace Industry

26 Aerospace 2050 Commercial 2010 Annual Airframe Sales $40bn GDP of United Arab Emirates $41bn Commercial Aircraft in World-wide use Approx 3000 Commercial Aircraft parked! New Aircraft delivered in > Airlines World-wide 72 Civil Airports in the UK and over 8000 Globally 4.9 trillion RPK flown in 2010 or approx 3.5k return trips to the Sun

27 Aerospace 2050 Commercial Aerospace Sector Aircraft Aircraft

28 Commercial Aerospace Sector Aircraft

29 Commercial Aerospace Sector 2010 to 2050 In Transition? Low Cost Operators Single Type Fleets Fleet Restructuring Point to Point Routes

30 Commercial Aerospace Sector 2010 to 2050 The market Drivers Speed vs Efficiency Issues Passenger Growth Route Structures Value of time Economics vs Size

31 Commercial Aerospace Sector to 2050 Congestion Operational Impacts Tilt Rotors Land Side Growth High Speed Trains Ultra Large Aircraft

32 Aerospace 2050 Commercial Aircraft Sector to 2050 Environmental Considerations Emissions Noise Sonic Boom

33 Commercial Aerospace Sector 2010 to 2030 Aircraft in Service Size Large Twin Aisle Single Aisle Regional Total Source Airbus / Boeing 20 Year Aircraft Demand by Size Size New Value ($bn) Large Twin Aisle Single Aisle Regional Total

34 Aerospace 2050 Commercial Aerospace Sector 2010 to 2030 Forecast Deliveries Total Air Transport Aircraft Demand for Annual Deliveries 2000 Increased: 30,299 Baseline: 24,787 Decreased: 18, Marco Economic 500 Increased : Low Oil World GDP Growth "Increased" 2009 Baseline Forecast "Decreased" Baseline: Oil $50 Decreased : High Oil Depressed GDP Source BAE Systems PS

35 Commercial Aircraft Sector New Configurations Novel Configurations Blended wing Low Slow Flight Solar Powered Source ACARE Out of the Box 2008

36 Commercial Aircraft Sector New Operations Park and Ride Modular Aircraft No Runway MAGLEV Launch Source ACARE Out of the Box 2008 Pre Boarding

37 Commercial Aircraft Sector Extended Ranges Flight Refuelling Air Carrier Formation Flight Source ACARE Out of the Box 2008 Nuclear

38 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry - Space CONTENTS Introduction Military Commercial Space Questions

39 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Space 1970

40 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Space 1970 to 2010

41 Aerospace 2050 Space 1970 to Over 5,400kg Number of Satellites Near-Term 4,200 to 5,400kg Manifest 2,200 to 4,200kg Below 2,200kg Long-Term Demand Forecast Launches 1957 to 2008 Trends in GSO Satellite Mass Distribution

42 - INTRODUCTION Aerospace 2050 Space 2010 Annual Global Space dependent business GDP of Belrus Annual Satellite Sales Jamaican GDP Annual Launch Services $55bn $55bn $9bn $8.9bn $12bn 42 commercial Companies operate 210+ Satellite Systems Over 4000 launches since means of getting into space

43 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Space 2010 Back to the Future Space Shuttle OUT Spacex Falcon / Dragon

44 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Space 2010 Parking is Difficult!

45 Aerospace 2050 Aerospace 2050 Space 2010 But there is a Plan! The Global Aerospace Industry DARPA - PHOENIX

46 Aerospace 2050 Aerospace 2050Industry Space The Global Aerospace 2010 to 2050 Commercial demand Broadcast Two Way Typically 32 Transponders / Satellite

47 - CUSTOMER REQUIREMENTS - SPACE Aerospace 2050 Space 2010 to 2050 Commercial demand Logistics Tracking Tele Medicine Multi Media Financial Transactions

48 Aerospace 2050 Space 2010 to 2050 Military demand Rapid Access Leverage Commercial Assets Contractor Provided Services Global Strike

49 The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Space 2050 Mission to Mars Commercial access Space Liner

50 Aerospace 2050 Aerospace 2050 Concluding Remarks The Global Aerospace Sector has a future. The Military Aerospace is Global The Military Aerospace going Autonomous The Commercial Aerospace Customer are changing their Demands The Commercial Aerospace Sector is going Greener The Space Sector searching for cheaper ways to BOLDLY GO The Space Sector is focused on commercial ways to access space