Convenzione INGV-DPC 2007-2009 Seismological Projects Integration to Project S5 High-resolution multi-disciplinary monitoring of active fault test-site areas in Italy Test site L Aquila L Aquila fault system. A test site to understand the physical processes of the earthquake preparation and generation. (duration 1 September 2009-31 May 2010) 1. Coordinators of the Lucia Margheriti, Senior Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Centro Nazionale Terremoti margheriti@ingv.it, +39 06 51860519, +39 3937721411 URL : http://www.cnt.ingv.it/margheriti Aldo Zollo, Full Professor, Department of Physical Sciences University of Naples Federico II aldo.zollo@unina.it, +39 081 2420315, 3489385716 URL: http://people.na.infn.it/~zollo/ 2. List of participants (Research Units) 1. RU7- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Responsible: Alessandro Amato (INGV-CNT) 2. RU8 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Responsible: Luigi Improta (INGV-RM1) 3. Integration to RU6 University of Naples Federico II Responsible: Aldo Zollo (Department of Physical Sciences, Univ. Naples Federico II ) 4. Integration to RU4 University of Messina Responsible: Giancarlo Neri (Department of Department of Earth Science, Univ. Messina) 3. Project Description A new task (Task 4, Test site L Aquila) has been added to the S5. Its main objective is the understanding of the complex rupture processes related to the segmented normal faulting processes occurred in Central Italy during and after the Mw 6.3, April,6 2009 earthquake. This task will have a short time duration (less than 1 year) and a limited financial support due to the late activation but it has a structure similar to the others. Given the short time available and the limited allocated resources, it will result in a small with limited research objectives, but having the merit to pose the basis for a possible future, more comprehensive DPC-INGV, if the l Aquila test site will be included in the next three-years Agreement.
This Task will include some of the ongoing monitoring and research activities and will integrate and optimize available data and results, selected for their efficacy and prompt outcome. Due to the short time span, the proposed WP s cannot cover all the research themes under development. Future, longer s could include a more exhaustive range of research activities. As for the other Test sites, the outcome of this Task will provide input data to other ongoing s. Task 4 Test site: L Aquila Responsible: Alessandro Amato CNT-INGV alessandro.amato@ingv.it The occurrence of a moderate size earthquake in a dense monitored seismic region as the recent Mw 6.3 L Aquila earthquake, represents a unique opportunity to investigate the complexity of earthquake rupture processes and to refine our observation and modelling tools, which can be of great support for the emergency management during future seismic crises. Following a specific IEC's suggestion, we propose to start or integrate a series of new activities, experiments and data collections taking L Aquila as a test-site with the aim to exploit at best the massive multidisciplinary data availability from permanent and temporary seismic and GPS networks. These research activities are integrated in S5 as a new task (Task 4). All the results derived from this Task will be made available to the other seismological s. Organization The task is organized in 6 work packages (see the Work Breakdown Structure). In order to simplify and speed up the starting of the activities and to optimize the interactions among researchers, the task management and administration will be care of INGV that will also support the activities of other institutions mainly contributing in WP 4.3, 4.4, 4.5. The amount of allocated funds for Task 4 is 120.000,00 euro which is part of the residual funds initially devoted to integrative activities of the Seismological s. Funds will be mostly used for supporting field campaigns, vehicle or equipment renting, costs for laboratory analyses, and consumables; no personnel costs are allowed. Two new RU, both from INGV, are added to the partnership, to accomplish the activities: RU07 (INGV-CNT ) responsible Alessandro Amato RU08 (INGV-RM1) responsible Luigi Improta The other RUs which are already participating to the will also contribute to this Task. RU07 will contribute to WP4.1, 4.2 and 4.3; RU08 will contribute to WP4.4, 4.5 and 4.6; RU2 will contribute to WP4.4, RU4 and 6 to WP 4.3, RU6 to Wp4.3. 2
Task 4 Organization chart Task 4 L Aquila fault system: a test site to understand the physical processes of the earthquake preparation and generation WP 4.1 Toward a permanent Seismic and GPS network to monitor segments adjacent to Paganica fault WP 4.2 Integrated SEED seismic database of L Aquila sequence WP 4.3 Estimates of source and structure parameters from seismic waveform analyses WP 4.4 Active faults imaging in the Middle Aterno Valley by highresolution seismic profiling WP 4.5 Mapping of active faults and characterizing their seismic behaviour WP 4.6 Toward a new Earthquake Forecast: a multidisciplinary approach WP 4.1 Responsible: Gianpaolo Cecere, cecere@gm.ingv.it WP 4.2 Responsible: Aladino Govoni, govoni@ingv.it WP 4.3 Responsible: Pasquale De Gori degori@ingv.it WP 4.4 Responsibles: Pierpaolo Bruno and Luigi Improta bruno@gm.ingv.it; improta@ingv.it WP 4.5 Responsibles: Francesca R. Cinti and Stefano Pucci RM1-INGV cinti@ingv.it, pucci@ingv.it WP 4.6 Responsible: Warner Marzocchi marzocchi@ingv.it RU 7 X X X X RU 8 X X X RU 6 X RU 4 X Contribution of the different RU s in the WP s 3
WP4.1 Toward a permanent Seismic and GPS network to monitor segments adjacent to Paganica fault. Responsible: Gianpaolo Cecere, CNT-INGV cecere@gm.ingv.it Objectives Rapid field deployment of a new type of continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) network and data from Rete Integrata Nazionale GPS (RING) stations, that had recently begun operating in the area, allow unique observations of the postseismic deformation associated with the 2009 L Aquila earthquake. Innovative solutions in field-craft, devised for the 5 new GPS stations, provide high-quality observations with 6-months time histories on stable monuments at remote sites. We propose to integrate the new 5 GPS sites temporary installed for the emergency into the RING in real time acquisition (Rinex 30s). Similarly, 5 seismic stations possibly with Nanometrics satellite-linked Real Time acquisition (satellite centre near Coppito, two near Montereale [RI] and 2 to the south) and few standalone stations are planned to be active for the duration, to have precise locations of the earthquakes and monitor the segments adjacent to L Aquila fault. Activities The activity include different steps as follows: (a) bureaucratic regularization of the survey sites to obtain environmental licenses; (b) opportune fence of enclosure protection; (c) power supply increase performance; (d) cable isolation get better; (e) wireless data connectivity improvements. The requested funds will be used for semi-permanent infrastructures devoted to the scientific. Possible future permanent installations will be covered by other funds. Methodology GPS acquisition: within the framework of this, we propose to acquire at 1-Hz in Real Time (and at 10 Hz in Local) sampling rate the data of the new 5 CGPS stations. These GPS data will be processed, by using Gipsy software, to analyze the temporal character and spatial pattern of the post-seismic and coseismic transients. The GPS Rinex file data will be will be available to the RING web sites (http://ring.gm.ingv.it/). Seismic acquisition: seedlink server at Rome will acquire data from the Nanometrics satellite centre through the INGV NaqServer. Data will be published automatically in quasi real time whenever an earthquake with specified location and magnitude occurs. Data relative to the event will be grouped and put on the INGV web site (ISIDE database), for downloading by users. TDMT moment tensors and quick Regional CMT will be also published. Moreover it will be included in the SEED database. 4
WP4.2: Integrated SEED seismic database of L Aquila sequence Responsible: Aladino Govoni, INGV-CNT govoni@ingv.it Objectives Main goal of this working package is the creation of a waveform archive that will collect, in a SEED format (IRIS, http://www.iris.washington.edu/manuals/seed_appg.htm), the continuous recordings of the aftershock sequence of the Mw 6.3 L Aquila earthquake. The archive will be formed by data recorded by INGV National Seismic Network and temporary station deployed by the INGV (CNT and CT); the stations installed by LGIT (Grenoble, France) are distributed in the same format by Grenoble (see figure below for station locations). Activities To build the archive we should convert all the continuous seismic recordings (permanent stations, temporary stations) in a uniform Seed format. The data is stored in the original format on the mobile network data server MAYA, then it is going to be converted to SEED data format and fed to the HSL seedlink/arclink server. Methodologies : To build the archive we will take advantage of personnel, structures and experience of the National Seismic Network run by INGV that is doing it also for the Messina Strait Test site. We are developing standard procedure to convert all the gathered data in SEED format and to build a common open data-base for the researches. Figure W4.2.1 Stations included in the database: Green National seismic Network INGV, Red Telemetered stations INGV, Yellow - Temporary LGIT stations, Blue - Temporary INGV stations 5
WP4.3: Estimates of earthquakes source parameters and structure characteristics from massive seismic waveform analysis Responsible: Pasquale De Gori CNT- INGV pasquale.degori@ingv.it Objectives The automatic and semi-automatic techniques developed in S5 aimed at processing and analysing massive seismic data streams will be applied off-line to the 2009 L Aquila earthquakes seismic waveform database. The waveform archives will consist of data recorded by the permanent strong motion networks of DPC and INGV and the by the temporary network installed to collect data from the aftershock sequence (WP 4.2). The methodologies will include the ones developed in WP1.1 (Responsible Di Stefano; an example of preliminary results obtained from this analysis of a data subset is reported in the figure W4.3.1, from the report of S5 phase 1 deliverables), WP2.3 (Responsible Piccinini), WP3.2 (Responsible Satriano) and WP2.5 (Responsible Neri). The final goal is to obtain refined estimates of main source parameters and crustal structure characteristics. Activities The activities in this WP will concern the testing and application of different techniques developed in S5 test-sites to a selected set of aftershocks. In particular: - implementation of triggering algorithms and event association binding; - automatic P- and S-wave arrival time picking and P-polarity measurements; - events location in 1-D velocity models, using linearized and global, probabilistic approaches; - moment tensor solutions; - source parameters estimation (seismic moment, source size, seismic energy and apparent/dynamic stress release) through automated inversion of P-and S-displacement spectra; - preliminary attenuation and site response determination; - seismic anisotropy and structure characteristics. Moreover, in order to investigate the possible role of fluid migration in the fault system, spatial and temporal variations of Vp/Vs will be analyzed (Chiarabba et al., 2009). Studying the variations before and after large shocks could give important clues to the earthquake preparation processes. Both the SEED wave form archive available from WP4.2 and the strong motion data-base of DPC (RAN, national accelerometric network) and INGV will be used for the activities described above. Methodologies Most of methodologies for analysing data from the other Test sites of S5 will be applied; they are described in WP1.1 (triggering algorithms and event association binding, automatic P- and S-wave arrival time picking and P-polarity measurements, and events location in 1-D velocity models); WP2.3 (seismic anisotropy and structure characteristics); WP2.5 (moment tensor solutions using the Cut and Paste method (Zhu and Helmberger, 1996); WP3.2 (source parameters estimation). We include here new developments and implementations which will concern the Vp/Vs estimation in the seismogenic crust by the linear regression of S-P versus P earthquakes travel time data. 6
Figure W4.3.1a Map of the seismicity occurred in the L Aquila area between the 10 th and the 14 th of April 2009. We report also location and focal mechanism of the foreshocks and the three main events of the sequence, while at the north-eastern sector we report location and focal mechanisms of two events with ML>4 automatically detected, picked and located with the developed procedure. Figure W4.3.1b Vertical cross sections of the seismicity of figure 4.3.1a 7
WP4.4: Active faults imaging in the middle Aterno valley by high-resolution seismic profiling Responsibles: Pierpaolo Bruno and Luigi Improta (bruno@gm.ingv.it; luigi.improta@ingv.it) Objectives High-resolution (HR) seismic surveying is a powerful tool to investigate the shallow architecture of normal fault systems and related extensional basins. Detailed shallow imaging allows to define basin geometry and evolution, and to constrain fault geometry, dimension and recent behavior, which are fundamental information for a quantitative approach to seismic hazard assessment. For seismogenic sources, HR shallow profiling is crucial to link field observations to deep fault images obtained by earthquake data and/or industry reflection profiles. Actually, several studies testify the relevance of this approach at all stages of deterministic scenarios studies, from active fault characterization up to site effects evaluation (e.g. Pratt et al., 1998; Benjumea et al., 2003). This WP is devoted to the shallow crustal imaging (down to 500-1000 m depth) in the middle Aterno valley by HR surveying. Main targets are the Paganica seismogenic fault, nearby antithetic structures (Mt. Bazzano and Monticchio faults), and the related basins extending between the villages of Pianola, Monticchio and Paganica, where the maximum co-seismic subsidence as been observed (Atzori et al., 2009). Our primary goals are: (1) illuminating the shallow portion of the fault system, (2) reconstructing the basin geometry and evolution, (3) linking the source of the 6 th April earthquake imaged by mainshock and aftershock recordings between 2-10 km depth (Chiarabba et al., 2009) to future morpho-structural and paleoseismological observations related to WP4.5 activity, (4) providing useful subsurface constraints for earthquake scenario and local site effects studies (faults and basin geometry, seismic velocity fields). We propose to acquire two seismic profiles extending from Paganica to Bazzano (referred to as Paganica line; Fig. WP4.4-1) and from Bazzano-Monticchio to Pianola (Monticchio line; Fig. WP4.4-2), for a total length of about 7 km. Due to funding restrictions, if no other co-funding arises, we will collect only the first line, about 3.5 km long, and postpone the second line to future s. Collaboration during this is foreseen, not only with the Centre for Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), but also with researchers of the Dept. of Structural Engineering of the University of Naples, that are planning seismic surveying to the west of L'Aquila, in the hangingwall of the Pettino fault. Activities Research activity includes different steps as follows: 1) Surveys design according to logistic conditions and to the available morpho-structural and civil engineering borehole data. This activity will be performed in strict collaboration with DPC and with WP 4.5. 2) Acquisition of the HR profiles (total length of about 7 km). 3) Data editing and pre-processing. 4) Determination of migrated stack sections by CDP-processing of reflection data. 5) First-arrival traveltime picking and tomographic inversion, model resolution assessment. 6) Structural interpretation of the combined reflectivity and tomographic images (in collaboration with WP4.5). 7) Preparation of input related fault and basin parameters of interest for earthquake scenario studies and local site effects analysis. Methodologies A multi-channel acquisition device (216-channels, gathering instrumentation of the AMRA and of the INGV) will record shots provided by a vibroseis (IVI Minivib). We will use a non conventional multi-fold wide-aperture acquisition geometry (Ravaut et al., 2003). Dense sources (10 m interval) will be recorded by a geophones spread 1075 m wide (geophone interval 5 m). The use of a geophone spread 3-4 times larger than the expected thickness of the Quaternary infill, aims at investigating the entire basin structure, and related bounding normal faults, by both seismic reflection and tomographic techniques. Migrated stack sections will be determined by CDPprocessing of HR reflection data through PROMAX routines (LandMark platform). Reflectivity 8
images will be complemented by multi-scale velocity models obtained by non-linear first-arrival tomography. This integration allows the enhancement of geological interpretation and the improvement of reflection imaging by using the tomographic velocity field in the CDP-processing (Improta and Bruno, 2007). Preliminarily, we propose four possible line locations crossing the above-mentioned faults (Figures WP4.4-1 and WP4.4-2). Only after a careful recognition in the field and after the definition of the more interesting targets, we will able to identify the optimal location of the profiles. Figure WP4.4-1. Two possible profile locations between Paganica and Bazzano 9
Figure WP4.4-2. Two possible profile locations from Bazzano towards Pianola and Monticchio. 10
WP4.5 Mapping of active faults and characterizing their seismic behaviour Responsibles: Francesca R. Cinti and Stefano Pucci RM1-INGV francesca.cinti@ingv.it, pucci@ingv.it Objectives The occurrence of the April 6 L'Aquila earthquake has highlighted how critical is the knowledge of the location and characteristics of the active faults in a seismic region. This is true not only as a contribution to the seismic hazard assessment but also for the local planning of residential areas, plants and infrastructures (Emergeo Working Group 2009). The Paganica fault, responsible for this event, was already known in the literature (Bagnaia et al 1992; Vezzani e Ghisetti, 1998; Boncio et al. 2004; Foglio CARG 1:50,000 N. 359 L Aquila) but no consideration of its activity was taken during the development of the area. In fact, besides the Gran Sasso aqueduct and the gas pipe crossing the Paganica fault, also many of the residential buildings along the fault escarpment were severely damaged because of the occurrence of surface faulting. On the other hand, knowing how large are the earthquakes these faults may produce, how fast they slip and how frequently they rupture are inputs needed for modern hazard assessment both at a local and regional scale. The major aim of this WP is to produce a map of active faults of the broad area of the middle Aterno Valley that will represent a consensus document among the geologist operating in the area. This document will be a reference for future similar s that will cover other portions of the national territory. This WP will also contribute to the discussion on the max Magnitude of the earthquakes these faults can produce and to the definition of their average frequency. This WP will be developed through a wide collaboration among researchers of INGV, ISPRA, CNR, DPC, and Universities that have experience in this area and on these specific topics. Collaboration is foreseen also with SIGRIS, funded by ASI, that will develop paleoseismological trenching as a validation of deformation models built on interferometric data related to the L Aquila earthquake sequence. All the results derived from this WP will be made available to other s and in particular to S1. Activities 1) Analysis of the state of the art of the knowledge of active faults in the study area. 2) Definition of the parameters describing the active faults and preparation of a GIS DB to host all the data. 3) Review through field and aerial photo surveys of all the faults identified. 4) Paleoseismological site selection along the Paganica and other faults, trenching, coring, and logging. 5) Dating and paleoseismological interpretation. 6) Input of all the fault related parameters in the GIS DB; Map preparation. Methodologies Modern geological, geomorphological, stratigraphic, geocronological, and earthquake geology approaches will be at the basis of this WP. All the data will be integrated in a GIS DB. Because of the involvement of different groups, this WP may became a true reference for the development of future s contributing in the knowledge of active fault distribution, to seismic hazard assessment at various scales, and to the surface faulting hazard. 11
WP4.6: Toward a new Earthquake Forecast: a multidisciplinary approach Responsible: Warner Marzocchi RM1-INGV marzocchi@ingv.it Objectives The occurrence of large earthquakes like the recent L'Aquila event always represents a case study of critical importance for many aspects. Here, we focus our attention on how this experience has affected and may affect in the next future our skill in earthquake forecasting. Immediately after the L'Aquila earthquake, INGV researchers provided daily real-time forecasts of the seismic evolution of the aftershock sequence. The forecasts have been produced in the timespace-magnitude domain. To our knowledge this is the first time all around the world that such a real-time forecast has been made during an emergency. Goodness-of-fit tests performed after one month confirmed the good fit between forecasts and observations. Despite the success, the L'Aquila earthquake experience has brought in light many issues that we need to face in the next future to improve and optimize our forecasting capability. These issues span from technical to scientific domains. Among many issues, one main scientific point is the possibility to improve the performances of forecasting models. As a matter of fact, the stochastic ETES (Epidemic-Type Earthquake Sequence) model used to forecast the evolution of the aftershock sequence is mostly based on simple physical components such as a constant tectonic seismic background and a symmetric in space co-seismic triggering. All information coming from geology, deformation monitoring and other observables are not included at this stage. Here, we aim at exploring the possibility to improve the forecasting capability through a generalization of the available stochastic models (such as the ETES). In particular, we plan to investigate how to incorporate other components coming from physics, geology, and from the monitoring system. The timeline of this initiative is limited, therefore we cannot guarantee any practical results in this time frame. At this level our efforts will be devoted to produce a feasibility study for further researches in this field. Activities 1) analysis of the state of the art 2) Identification of new potential (and available) components to improve earthquake forecast 3) Definition of standards for each component 4) Generalization of the structure of the forecasting model to integrate components up to now neglected. 5) Preliminary test to verify the "relevance" of added components using the L'Aquila case Methodologies We start from the classical ETES model used in real-time during the L'Aquila sequence and we explore the possibility to generalize it in order to incorporate other potentially relevant components ignored until now. The identification, selection and characterization of potential parameters that can be included to improve our forecasting capability will be pursued through an intensive collaboration with researchers having quite different background. 12
4. Main References Atzori, S., Hunstad I., Chini M., Salvi S., Tolomei C., Bignami C., Stramondo S., Trasatti E., Antonioli A., Boschi E. (2009) - Finite fault inversion of DInSAR coseismic displacement of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (central Italy), Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 36, No. 15, L15305, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009gl039293. Bagnaia, R., D Epifanio A., Sylos Labini S. (1992) - Aquila and subaequan basins: an example of Quaternary evolution in Central Apennines, Italy. Quaternaria Nova, II, 187-209. Boncio, P., Lavecchia G., Pace B. (2004) - Defining a model of 3D seismogenic sources for Seismic Hazard Assessment applications: the case of central Apennines (Italy). Journal of Seismology, 8/3, 407-425. Benjumea, B., Hunter J.A., Aylsworth J.M., Pullan S.E. (2003) - Application of high-resolution seismic techniques in the evaluation of earthquake site response, Ottawa Valley, Canada. Tectonophysics, 368, 1-4, 193-209. Chiarabba C., P. De Gori, E. Boschi (2009) Pore-pressure migration along a normal-fault system resolved by time-repeated seismic tomography. Geology 2009 v. 37, p. 67-70 Chiarabba, C., et al., (2009b) - The 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) MW6.3 earthquake: main shock and aftershocks, Geophys. Res. Lett. (in press). Emergeo Working Group (2009) Field geological Survey in the epicentral area of the Abruzzi (central Italy) seismic sequence of April 6, 2009, Quaderni di Geofisica, 70,INGV, Rome. Foglio CARG 1:50,000 (2009) - Cartografia geologica ufficiale Foglio CARG 1:50,000 N. 359, L Aquila. Improta L. and Bruno P.P (2007) - Combining seismic reflection with multifold wide-aperture profiling: An effective strategy for high-resolution shallow imaging of active faults. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L20310, doi:10.1029/2007gl031893. Pratt, T.L, Dolan J.F., Odum J.K., Sthephenson W.J., Williams R.A., Templeton M.E. (1998) - Multiscale seismic imaging of active fault zones for hazard assessment : A case study of the Santa Monica fault zone, Los angeles, California, Geophysics, 63, 22, 479-489. Ravaut, C., S. Operto, L. Improta, J. Virieux, A. Herrero, P. Dell Aversana (2004) Multiscale imaging of complex structures from multi-fold wide-aperture seismic data by frequency-domain fullwaveform inversion: application to a thrust belt. Geophysical Journal International, 159, pp.1032-1056. Vezzani, L. and Ghisetti, F. (1998) - Carta Geologica dell Abruzzo, scale 1:100,000. S.EL.CA., Firenze. Zhu, L., Helmberger, D., 1996. Advancement in source estimation technique using broadband regional seismograms., Bull. Seism. Soc. Amer. 86, 1634-1641 13
5. Deliverables ID Deliverables Task Workpackage Impact Ready for DPC D1 Five additional continuous GPS stations integrated into the RING 4 4.1 x January 2010 D2 Five additional seismic stations with real time acquisition 4 4.1 x January 2010 D3 Integrated SEED waveform database 4 4.2 End of D4 Refined hypocentral locations of the 4 4.3 x End of seismic sequence D5 Database of focal mechanisms obtained 4 4.3 x End of with the CAP method and technical report D6 Report on the refined estimates of source 4 4.3 x End of and attenuation parameters inferred from the analysis of aftershock records of the L Aquila 2009 eqk sequence D7 Variations in time of structural 4 4.3 End of characteristics (Vp/Vs, anisotropy) D8 High-resolution reflectivity images and Vp 4 4.4 End of models of the Middle Aterno Valley D9 Geometry of active faults in the Middle 4 4.4 x End of D10 Aterno Valley Buried geometry and velocity structure of Quaternary basins in the Middle Aterno Valley 4 4.4 End of D11 List of parameters describing active faults 4 4.5 x December 2009 D12 Map of active faults and list of related 4 4.5 x End of parameters in the Middle Aterno Valley and GIS Data Base D13 Logs of investigated paleoseismological trenches, cores, and list of ages of layers 4 4.5 End of D14 Interpretation of the events and suggested future activities 4 4.5 x End of D15 Feasibility study on the implementation and improvement of the actual short-term earthquake forecasting model 4 4.6 x End of the 6. Personnel Task/RU RU responsible (surname and name) Institution Months/Person (not funded by the ) Months/Person (funded by the ) I phase II phase I phase II phase 4/7 Alessandro Amato INGV - 35 - - 4/2 Luigi Improta INGV - 37 - - 4/4 Neri Giancarlo Univ. di Messina - 12 - - 4/6 Zollo Aldo Univ. di Napoli - 11 - - 14
6. Financial Plan II phase (task4 only) Type of expenditure 1) Spese di personale (Personnel) 2) Spese per missioni (Travels for data collection, collaborations, etc.) 3) Costi Amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi, ricerche e prestazioni professionali (grants, technical and scientific contracts, etc.) 5) Spese per servizi (Maintenance and assistance of instrumentation and computers, technical services, etc.) 6) Spese per materiale tecnico durevole e di uso (Durables and consumables) 7) Spese indirette ( 10% del totale delle precedenti voci) (Overheads) Importo previsto a (total) Finanziato dal Dipartimento b (DPC contribution) 5000 0,00 27000 0,00 1000 45000 0,00 14000 0,00 18100 0,00 9900 0,00 Co-finanziamento c = a-b (co-funded) Total 120000 0,00 II phase (Tasks 1,2,3,4) Type of expenditure 1) Spese di personale (Personnel) 2) Spese per missioni (Travels for data collection, collaborations, etc.) 3) Costi Amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi, ricerche e prestazioni professionali (grants, technical and scientific contracts, etc.) 5) Spese per servizi (Maintenance and assistance of instrumentation and computers, technical services, etc.) 6) Spese per materiale tecnico durevole e di uso (Durables and consumables) 7) Spese indirette ( 10% del totale delle precedenti voci) (Overheads) Importo previsto a (total) Finanziato dal Dipartimento b (DPC contribution) 9000 0,00 70000 0,00 1000 114667 0,00 14000 0,00 29800 0,00 19350 0,00 Co-finanziamento c = a-b (co-funded) Total 257817 0,00 15
Total (Task 1,2,3,4) Type of expenditure 1) Spese di personale (Personnel) 2) Spese per missioni (Travels for data collection, collaborations, etc.) 3) Costi Amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi, ricerche e prestazioni professionali (grants, technical and scientific contracts, etc.) 5) Spese per servizi (Maintenance and assistance of instrumentation and computers, technical services, etc.) 6) Spese per materiale tecnico durevole e di uso (Durables and consumables) 7) Spese indirette ( 10% del totale delle precedenti voci) (Overheads) Importo previsto a (total) Finanziato dal Dipartimento b (DPC contribution) 38000 0,00 106030 0,00 1000 171000 0,00 32000 0,00 47200 0,00 29770 0,00 Co-finanziamento c = a-b (co-funded) Total 0,00 0,425.000 0,00 16
Agreement INGV-DPC 2007-2009 Seismological Projects Research Unit S5-RU7 Progetto S5 Title Monitoring and understanding the L Aquila fault system 1. RU Responsible - Alessandro Amato, Research Director Centro Nazionale Terremoti INGV Education Laurea in Geology, University of Rome (1982) Ph.D. in Geophysics, University of Rome (1987) Positions held Research Fellow at the U.S. Geogical Survey, Menlo Park (1988) Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (Italy) (1988-1997) Senior Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (1997-2000) Research Director, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (2000-2009) Head of the Italian National Earthquake Center, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (2001-2007) Scientific Contributions -Seismotectonics of the Italian peninsula, including the analysis of many relevant earthquake sequences, original studies on the present stress field with earthquake and borehole data, research on intermediate and deep earthquakes in the Italian subductioncollision zones. -Seismic tomography studies, including studies on fault zone structure, on volcanic and geothermal areas, and on the lithosphere-asthenosphere system in subduction zones. -Volcano-seismology, including distribution of earthquakes in volcanic areas, slow ground deformation from levelling data, deep structure of volcanoes and associated seismicity. Coordinator of Project GeModAp funded by the European Commission (1994-1997). Coordinator of Project Terremoti Probabili in Italia tra il 2000 e il 2030 funded by the DPC through GNDT (1999-2004). 5 publications relevant to the Chiarabba, C. and A. Amato, Upper crustal structure of the Benevento area (southern Italy): fault heterogeneities and potential for large earthquakes, Geoph. J. Int.,130, 229-239, 1996. Amato A., Azzara R., C. Chiarabba, et al., The 1997 Umbria-Marche, Italy, earthquake sequence: a first look at the main shocks and aftershocks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2861-2864, 1998. Chiarabba, C., and A. Amato (2003), V p and V p /V s images in the M w 6.0 Colfiorito fault region (central Italy): A contribution to the understanding of seismotectonic and seismogenic processes, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B5), 2248, doi:10.1029/2001jb001665. Amato A., Mele F.M. (2008) Performance of the INGV National Seismic Network from 1997 to 2007. Annals of Geophysics 51, 2-3, 417-431. Chiarabba C., Amato A., Anselmi M., et al. (2009) The 2009 L Aquila (central Italy) M W 6.3 earthquake: main shock and aftershocks. Geophys.Res.Letters, in press. 17
2. Personale dell'ur Nominativo (Cognome e Nome) Amato Alessandro Cecere Gianpaolo Qualifica Dirigente di ricerca Primo Tecnologo Ente/Istituzione Mesi/Persona (personale non a carico del progetto) Mesi/Persona (personale a carico del progetto) I fase II fase I fase II fase INGV-CNT - 1 - - INGV CNT 1 Abruzzese Luigi Tecnico INGV CNT 1 Avallone Antonio Ricercatore INGV CNT 1 Cardinale Vincenzo Tecnico INGV CNT 1 Castagnozzi Angelo Tecnico INGV CNT 1 D Ambrosio Ciriaco Tecnologo INGV CNT 1 Cattaneo Marco Dirigente di ricerca INGV CNT 1 Criscuoli Fabio Tecnico INGV CNT 1 D Ambrosio Ciriaco Tecnologo INGV CNT 1 D Anastasio Elisabetta Ricercatrice INGV CNT 0 De Luca Gaetano Ricercatore INGV CNT 1 De Luca Giovanni Tecnico INGV CNT 1 Frapiccini Massimo Tecnico INGV CNT 1 Falco Luigi Tecnico INGV CNT 1 Memmolo Antonino Tecnico INGV CNT 1 Migliari Franco Tecnico INGV CNT 1 Minichiello Felice Tecnico INGV CNT 1 Moschillo Raffaele Tecnico INGV CNT 1 Pignone Maurizio Tecnologo INGV CNT 1 Zarrilli Luigi Tecnico INGV CNT 1 Govoni Aladino Ricercatore INGV-CNT 1 Margheriti Lucia Prima Ricercatrice INGV-CNT 1 Moretti Milena Ricercatrice INGV-CNT 1 Mandiello Alfonso Tecnologo INGV-CNT - 1 - - Lauciani Valentino Tecnico INGV-CNT - 1 - - Pintore Stefano Tecnico INGV-CNT - 1 - - De Gori Pasquale Ricercatore INGV-CNT 1 18
Selvaggi Giulio Chiarabba Claudio Dirigente di ricerca Dirigente di ricerca INGV CNT 0 INGV CNT 1 Di Stefano Raffaele Ricercatore INGV-CNT 1 Baccheschi Paola Borsista INGV-CNT 1 Lucente Francesco Pio Primo Ricercatore INGV-CNT 1 Piccinini Davide Ricercatore INGV-RM1 1 Pastori Marina Dottoranda Dottoranda UNIPG 0 Chiaraluce Lauro Ricercatore INGV-CNT - 1 - - Bianchi Irene Borsista INGV-CNT - 1 - - Valoroso Luisa Borsista INGV-CNT - 0 Piana Agostinetti Nicola Ricercatore INGV-CNT 0 Latorre Diana Assegnista INGV-CNT 0 Michelini Alberto Dirigente di ricerca INGV-CNT 1 Faenza Licia Ricercatrice INGV-CNT 0 3. Description of Contribution 3.1 State of the art (including references when necessary) The Aquila earthquake was recorded by a good network of seismic and GPS instruments, thanks to the recent improvements of the INGV monitoring system. In addition to the permanent stations of the national and the regional networks (RSN, RAN, RSR), several temporary stations were installed by INGV and other Institutions. Preliminary analyses of seismological and GPS data allowed us to constrain the basic parameters of the main faulting episodes (Chiarabba et al., 2009; Anzidei et al., 2009, etc.). These results are based on subsets of data, selected according to time and magnitude threshold. An extended monitoring of the active area, with special emphasis on its edges, and a thorough analysis of the huge data set recorded is needed. The L Aquila earthquake sequence is the first one to be recorded with high quality seismic and geodetic observations since its very beginning. It is therefore particularly suited for a retrospective analysis of precursory shocks and temporal variations of crustal properties. The RU/ components have a broad experience in the acquisition, storage and analysis of seismic and GPS data. 3.2 Goals The main goals of RU 7 are to refine and test the preliminary results obtained in the first four months of the sequence, relative to earthquake relocation and evaluation of temporal variations of physical properties of the seismogenic crust. The seismic and GPS monitoring system will be tuned in order to better follow the post-seismic deformation and to map possible migration of the seismic activity to the edges of the L Aquila fault system. In particular RU7 will work for WP 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 and contribute to 4.4 and 4.6. 19
3.3 Activity (with timetable for each phase) 1- Integration of 5 new GPS stations into the RING in order to map postseismic deformation; 2- Integration of 5 new seismic stations into the RSN to monitor seismicity migration; 3- Creation of a waveform archive in SEED format of all seismic stations recording the aftershock sequence 4 - Implementation of triggering algorithms and event association binding; 5- Automatic P- and S-wave arrival time picking and P-polarity measurements; 6- Aftershock relocation, using different approaches; 7- Seismic anisotropy determination; 8- Vp/Vs evaluation in the crustal volume and in time. 3.4 Methodology The methodologies are described in the respective WP s. 3b.5 Timetable Phase I II Semester 1 2 1 2 Activity 1 - - x - Activity 2 - - x - Activity 3 - - x x Activity 4 - - x - Activity 5 - - x - Activity 6 - - x x Activity 7 - - x x Activity 8 - - - x 20
4b. Deliverables Deliverable Task Workpackage Impact Ready for DPC Five additional continuous GPS stations integrated into the RING 4 4.1 x January 2010 Five additional seismic stations with real time acquisition 4 4.1 x January 2010 Integrated SEED waveform database 4 4.2 End of Refined hypocentral locations of the 4 4.3 x End of seismic sequence Variations in time of structural 4 4.3 End of characteristics (Vp/Vs, anisotropy) 5. Interactions with other Institutions UR7 will participate to the activities of UR4 for the determination of fault plane solutions, with UR6 for event relocations, with UR8 for high resolution seismic line across the fault system and for the generalization of the forecasting model. 6. Interactions with other DPC Projects Interaction with S1 and S2. 21
7. Financial Plan Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'ente/istituzione c = a-b 1) Spese di personale - 2) Spese per missioni 10000 3) Costi Amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi, ricerche e prestazioni professionali - 7000 5) Spese per servizi 14000 6) Spese per materiale tecnico durevole e di uso 7) Spese indirette ( 10% del totale delle precedenti voci) 10000 4000 Totale 45000 22
Agreement INGV-DPC 2007-2009 Seismological Projects Research Unit S5-RU8 Progetto S5 Titolo Exploring the structure and behaviour of active faults, contributing to a multi-component earthquake forecast 1. RU Responsible Luigi Improta Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Sismologia e Tettonofisica. Short CV Luigi Improta has been Researcher at INGV since 2003. He hold a MS degree in Earth Science (University of Naples, Italy, 1994), a PhD in Geophysics (University of Naples, 1998) and research fellowships sponsored by oil companies (Dept. of Physics, University of Naples, 1998-2003). Research interest mainly focuses on: i) seismic imaging of complex structures and faults by active and passive seismology, ii) high-resolution geophysical prospecting across seismogenic faults, iii) planning of active and passive seismic experiments. He carried out 18 crustal and shallow seismic surveys on active faults and volcanoes, and led Research Projects funded by University of Naples, INGV-DPC and CNRS (France). He published 16 papers on JCR journals. Five recent publications 1. L. Improta and P.P. Bruno (2007) - Combining seismic reflection with multifold wide-aperture profiling: An effective strategy for high-resolution shallow imaging of active faults. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L20310, doi:10.1029/2007gl031893. 2. L. Improta, A. Zollo, P.P Bruno, A. Herrero, F. Villani (2003) High resolution seismic tomography across the 1980 (Ms 6.9) Southern Italy earthquake fault scarp. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 10. 3. C. Chiarrabba, A. Amato, M. Anselmi, P. Baccheschi, C. Bianchi, M. Cattaneo, G. Cecere, L. Chiaraluce, M. Ciaccio, P. De Gori, G. De Luca, M. Di Bona, R. Di Stefano, L. Faenza, A. Govoni, L. Improta, F. Lucente, A. Marchetti, L. Margheriti, F. Mele, A. Michelini, G. Monachesi, M. Moretti, M. Pastori, N.P. Agostinetti, D. Piccinini, P. Roselli, D. Seccia, L. Valoroso (2009) - The 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) MW6.3 earthquake: main shock and aftershocks. Geophys. Res. Lett., (in press). 4. A. Ascione, A. Cinque, L. Improta and F. Villani (2003) Late quaternary faulting within the Southern Apennines seismic belt: new data from Mt.Marzano area (Southern Italy). Quaternary International, 101-102, pp. 27-41. 5. L. Improta and M. Corciulo (2006) Controlled source non-linear tomography: a powerful tool to constrain tectonic models of the Southern Apennines orogenic wedge, Italy. Geology, 34, n 11, pp.941-944. 23
2. Personale dell'ur Nominativo (Cognome e Nome) Qualifica Ente/Istituzione Mesi/Persona (personale non a carico del progetto) Mesi/Persona (personale a carico del progetto) I fase II fase I fase II fase Francesca R. Cinti Ricercatore INGV-RM1-2 - - Stefano Pucci Ricercatore INGV-RM1-2 - - Daniela Pantosti Dir. Ric. INGV-RM1-1 - - Luigi Improta Ricercatore INGV-RM1-4 - - Pier Paolo Bruno Ricercatore INGV-OV - 2 - - Paola Montone Dir. Ric. INGV-RM1-1 - - Fabio Villani Ricercatore INGV-RM1-0 Antonio Castiello Assegnista INGV-RM1-0 Dario De Rosa Dottorando Università di Perugia - 0 Francesco Varriale Dottorando Università di Napoli - 0 Simona Pierdominici Ricercatore INGV-RM1-1 - - Fabrizio Galadini Dir. Ric. INGV-MI - 1 - - Luigi Cucci Ricercatore INGV-RM1-1 - - Antonio Patera Tecnologo INGV-RM1-2 - - Stefano Gori Assegnista INGV-MI - 1 - - Emanuela Falcucci Borsista INGV-MI - 1 - - Alessandro M. Michetti Professore Associato Università dell Insubria - 1 - - Eutizio Vittori? ISPRA - 1 - - Anna Maria Blumetti? ISPRA - 1 - - Marco Moro Ricercatore INGV-CNT - 1 - - Michele Saroli Professore? Università di Cassino - 1 - - Riccardo Civico Dottorando INGV-RM1-2 - - Carlo Alberto Brunori Paolo Marco De Martini Ricercatore INGV-CNT - 0 - - Ricercatore INGV-RM1-1 - - Paolo Messina Ricercatore CNR - 1 - - Pierfrancesco Burrato Ricercatore INGV-RM1-1 - - Paola Vannoli Ricercatore INGV-RM1-1 - - Umberto Fracassi Ricercatore INGV-RM1-0 - - Paolo Galli Funzionario DPC - 1 - - Daniela Di Bucci Funzionario DPC - 1 - - 24
Alberto Pizzi Professore Università di Chieti - 1 - - Paolo Boncio Professore Università di Chieti - 1 - - Warner Marzocchi Dir. Ric INGV-RM1-1 - - Anna Maria Lombardi Ricercatore INGV-RM1-1 - - Biagio Giaccio Ricercatore CNR - 1 - - 3. Description of the Contribution 3.1 State of the art The April 6 earthquake has highlighted the need for 1) a deeper knowledge of the seismogenic areas along the Apennines, 2) an improvement of our earthquake forecasting capability. The two topics are not obviously independent because the knowledge of active fault distribution and the definition of their characteristics and seismic behavior is critical for both improving the modeling of earthquake scenarios in the key of expected maximum earthquake and damage distribution, but also for surface faulting hazard and long and middle term earthquake forecast. This test site represents a case study that, in the future, can be used as a reference to extend these studies also to other seismogenic areas of the Apennines. 3.2 Goals The main goals of this RU are supportive of WP 4.4, 4.5 and 4.6: Define the structure of the Paganica fault; Define the seismic behavior of the Paganica fault; Map the Middle Aterno active faults; Select potential paleoseismological sites along other faults of the middle Aterno valley and study of a selected number; Organize and realize a GIS DB containing all the data collected by the RU that can be integrated with other Geodatabases exisitng in the seismological s; Explore a new approach to short-term earthquake forecast by including different components Analyze and evaluate the potential and limitation of the studies performed in the key of future s at a local or national scale. 3.3 Activity (with timetable for each phase) The study area will be zoomed in and out depending on the type of activity; localized for the study of the Paganica fault, regional for the new approaches to earthquake forecast. Activity 1: definition of the structure of the Paganica fault from surface data and high-resolution seismic data. This activity comprises two parts: (a) feasibility study and data collection; (b) data analysis. Activity 2: mapping of active faults in the broad middle Aterno valley, definition of the significant parameters for describing active faults. Activity 3: paleoseismological investigations: (a) field work; (b) lab analysis including dating and interpretation. Activity 4: (a) organization, realization and (b) population of a Geodatabase containing the data collected. 25
Activity 5. Analysis of the state of the art in short-term forecasting. Activity 6. Identification of new potential (and available) components to improve earthquake forecast Activity 7. Definition of standards for each component Activity 8. Generalization of the structure of the forecasting model to integrate components up to now neglected. Activity 9. Preliminary test to verify the "relevance" of added components using the L'Aquila case 3.4 Methodology Three main grouping of methodologies will be applied by this RU: (1) shallow, high-resolution seismic surveying in WP4.4, (2) morpho-structural and paleoseismological investigations in WP4.5, (3) earthquake forecast by stochastic approaches in WP4.6. 3.5 Timetable Phase II Semester 1 2 Activity 1a x - Activity 1b - Activity 2 x x x Activity 3a x Activity 3b x Activity 4a x Activity 4b x Activity 5 x Activity 6 x Activity 7 x Activity 8 Activity 9 x x x 26
4. Deliverables Deliverable Task Workpackage Impact Ready for DPC High-resolution reflectivity images and Vp 4 4.4 End of models of the Middle Aterno Valley Geometry of active faults in the Middle 4 4.4 x End of Aterno Valley Buried geometry and velocity structure of 4 4.4 End of Quaternary basins in the Middle Aterno Valley List of parameters describing active faults 4 4.5 x December Map of active faults and list of related parameters in the Middle Aterno Valley and GIS Data Base Logs of investigated paleoseismological trenches, cores, and list of ages of layers Interpretation of the events and suggested future activities 2009 4 4.5 x End of 4 4.5 End of 4 4.5 x End of Feasibility study on the implementation and improvement of the actual short-term earthquake forecasting model 4 4.6 x End of the 5. Interactions with other Institutions WP4.4 will collaborate with AMRA and possibly with University of Naples Federico II and University of Perugia. The work to be performed within WP4.5 will be developed by teams of researchers from ISPRA, CNR, University of Chieti, University of Insubria and DPC interacting both in the field data collection and in the lab analyses and interpretation. WP meeting will be held to coordinate the numerous activities and to reach consensus interpretations. 6. Interactions with other DPC Projects Beside interaction with other S5 tasks, interaction is foreseen with researchers contributing to most of the seismological s both for data sharing and interpretation. 27
7. Financial Plan Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'ente/istituzione c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 5000 2) Spese per missioni 10000 3) Costi Amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi, ricerche e prestazioni professionali 5) Spese per servizi - 6) Spese per materiale tecnico durevole e di uso 7) Spese indirette ( 10% del totale delle precedenti voci) - 35000 5000 5000 Totale 60.0000 28
Agreement INGV-DPC 2007-2009 Seismological Projects Research Unit S5-RU6 Progetto S5 Titolo Refined estimates of source, attenuation and site parameters for L Aquila earthquake sequence 1. RU Responsible (max 1 pagina) Prof. Aldo Zollo Information and details about the RU responsible are available from the UR6 section of the original 2. Personale dell'ur Nominativo (Cognome e Nome) Qualifica Ente/Istituzione Mesi/Persona (personale non a carico del progetto) Mesi/Persona (personale a carico del progetto) I fase II fase I fase II fase Zollo Aldo PO UniNa Fed II 2 Satriano Claudio Contrattista AMRA scarl 3 Orefice Antonella Dottorando UniBo 6 3. Description of the Contribution 3.1 State of the art The aftershock sequence triggered by the Mw 6.3 Central Italy eqk of April, 6,2009 provides an unique opportunity to investigate the details of the rupture processes of moderate size events occurring in a high seismic risk region of Italy. A number of methodologies for massive spectral data mining are being developed and applied to data continuously collected by the Irpinia Seismic Network in the Test Site Irpinia with the aim to retrieve refined estimates of source parameters (location, mechanism, seismic moment, source size and stress release) of microearthquakes. Since the retrieval of accurate estimate of source parameters needs of an adequate correction for site and path attenuation effects, the developed technique allows for the determination of the P and S wave quality factors in the propagation medium and the site responses at the receivers. In the frame of the present S5 integrated we intend to apply the developed techniques 29