INGV-DPC Projects VOLCANOLOGY

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1 INGV-DPC Projects VOLCANOLOGY

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3 INGV DPC Projects Volcanology Cover pictures: top: Etna, 2001 eruption. Ash plume and fallout seen from the Nicolosi Rifugio Sapienza road. Photo by P. Papale. bottom: Etna, 2002 eruption. Lava fountaining from the 2500 m a.s.l. cone in Piano del Lago. Photo courtesy: Tom Pfeiffer /

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5 Index General Statements and Organization page 5 Coordination Unit V0 15 Project V1 Unrest 21 Project V2 Paroxysm 91 Project V3 Lava 177 Project V4 Flank 259 Project V5 Speed 355 Appendix 1 363

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7 INGV-DPC Agreement Projects in Volcanology General Statements and Organization General Statements and Organization The Agreement between the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC) and the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) includes the execution of a series of Projects in Volcanology, aimed at achieving objectives of specific interest for the DPC. Such projects should be carried out with a contribute from an ample scientific community, both internal and external to the INGV. The Agreement defines the general organization and coordination of the projects, as well as the project number, their title and objectives. The Project structure is instead outlined in this document. Within each Project, the initial Objectives session corresponds to the Project description as in the INGV-DPC Agreement. That description, and the products listed inthere, represent indeed the skeleton over which the projects are constructed, and the goals of the Projects. The management, organization, and transversal coordination of the Projects is committed to a General Coordinator who supervises their execution. The set up and coordination of each Project is committed to a pair (or in one case, three) of Coordinators from INGV and from other Institutions. The Coordinators are responsible of the achievement of the products in their Project. The General Coordinator and Project Coordinators have been nominated by the ING President, in his decree n. 515, December 5 th, On December 20 th, 2007, the DPC has nominated for each Project one internal Referent, who monitors the Project advance and may formulate further proposals for the development and integration of specific activities. The appointed General Coordinator, Project Coordinators, and DPC Referents, are reported below, together with the Projects titles: General Coordinator: Paolo Papale, INGV Pisa Project V1 UNREST. Set up of an integrated method for the definition of the unrest phases at Campi Flegrei. Coordinators: Edoardo Del Pezzo (INGV-OV Napoli), Lucia Civetta (Univ. Federico II Napoli). DPC Referents: Chiara Cardaci (Chiara Cristiani) Project V2 - PAROXYSM. Definition of the expected precursors for major explosions, paroxysms, and effusive activity at Stromboli volcano. Coordinators: Antonella Bertagnini (INGV Pisa), Sonia Calvari (INGV Catania), Alessandro Aiuppa (Univ. Palermo) DPC Referents: Chiara Cristiani (Vittorio Bosi) Project V3 - LAVA. Realization of the lava flow hazard map at Etna, and set up of a method for its dynamic update. Coordinators: Ciro Del Negro (INGV Catania), Stefano Gresta (Univ. Catania) DPC Referents: Stefano Ciolli (Chiara Cardaci) Project V4 - FLANK. Hazard related to volcano flank dynamics at Etna. Coordinators: Giuseppe Puglisi (INGV Catania), Valerio Acocella (Univ. Roma Tre) DPC Referents: Vittorio Bosi (Stefano Ciolli) 5

8 6 Project V5 - SPEED. Scientific projects included in the DPC - Campanian Region Agreement signed on 07/21/2006. Coordinators: Giovanni Macedonio (INGV-OV Napoli), Franco Barberi (Univ. Roma Tre) DPC Referents: Chiara Cardaci (Vittorio Bosi) Project V5 Speed differs in its conception from Projects V1 V4, since it was approved in the frame of a previous Agreement between the DPC and the Campanian Region. That difference translates in substantially different number of Research Units, different extent to which the Project is described here, and different cost voices listed in the financial tables. Project V5 Speed reported here represents part of a more extended activity finalized to the definition of the eruptive scenarios in terms of volcanic hazard, vulnerability, and damage. The parts of the project not funded by the DPC and not included here are described elsewhere. Each Project achieves its objectives, constituted by the realization of the Project products included in the Agreement, through the coordinated activity of the Research Units (RU s). The RU s are led by a RU Responsible, who is responsible for the activities and objectives of the specific RU. Such RU objectives, agreed upon jointly by the RU and the Project Coordinators, constitute the scientific and technical contribute from the RU to the realization of the Project products. Each RU Responsible keeps close contact with the Project Coordinators, who in turn ensure the required level of interaction between the different RU s, and represent the referents for the Project activities and the responsible of the Project success. A total number of 46 RU s form Projects V1 V5. Projects V1 to V4 include on the whole 433 scientific and technical personnel units (208 from INGV plus 225 from Institutions outside INGV), for a total of 2216 person/months or 185 person/years. The institutions involved include 8 INGV Departments, 7 CNR Institutes, 2 other Italian research Institutes, 1 PON, 21 Italian Universities, 10 European + 4 extra-european Research Centers, 15 European + 7 extra-european Universities. The great majority of RU s contains personnel from different Institutions (e.g., INGV and non-ingv), in order to improve exchange and cooperation. Exchange and cooperation at the level of researchers, of RU s, and of Projects, are essential ingredients of the Project activities. Frequent meetings between Project participants are envisaged, according to the above. A minimum of three plenary Project meetings is foreseen for each Project, the first one representing a kick-off meeting to be held within two months from the beginning of Projects; the second one representing the end-of-first-phase meeting, to be held within two months before the deadline for delivery of the scientific report; the third one being the endof-project meeting, to be held within two months before the end of Projects. The General Coordinator is committed to guarantee inter-project coordination, that may pursued also through inter-project meetings on specific themes of transversal interest. In order to guarantee an international level of the research activities and a sound scientific basis to the Project products, the Agreement includes a periodic evaluation of the Project outcomes by an International Evaluation Committee (IEC) formed by international experts jointly nominated by INGV and DPC. The duties of the IEC are: i) evaluating the initial Project proposals contributing to their scientific improvement; ii) monitoring the

9 General Statements and Organization projects and formulating an evaluation every 6 months; iii) keeping contacts with the Project Coordinators and with the General Coordinator. The chronogram of relevant Project deadlines is reported below. May 1, 2008 October-November 2008 April 30, 2009 May 1st, 2009 May 1st June 15, 2009 June 15, 2009 June 30, 2009 July1, 2009 September 30, 2009 Novembre- December 2009 May 31, 2010 June 30, 2010 July-August 2010 August 31, 2010 September 30, 2010 October 31, 2010 Fund allocation 1 st phase, official start of Projects First half-year scientific evaluation by the IEC End of 1st phase; deadline for delivery of the Project scientific report. Start of 2nd phase First-year scientific evaluation by the IEC, re-definition of the financial plan for the 2nd phase, and approval from the DPC Deadline for 1st phase financial report by the RU s. Deadline for 1st phase financial report by the INGV (including the financial reports by the RU s). Fund allocation 2nd phase. Possible closure of some RU s. Deadline for final financial report by RU s not confirmed for the 2nd phase. Second half-year scientific evaluation by the IEC End of Projects. Deadline for delivery of final Project scientific reports. Final scientific evaluation by the IEC Last term of use of funds for research grants and contracts, and of funds for general coordination. Deadline for 2nd phase financial report by the RU s. Deadline for 2nd phase financial report by the INGV (including the financial reports by the RU s). 7

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11 General Statements and Organization General Financial Tables 9

12 Projects V1-V4. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) ) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi ) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) Totale Projects V1-V4. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) ) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi ) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) Totale

13 Projects V1-V4. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros). General Statements and Organization Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) ) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi ) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) Totale

14 Project V5. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Assegni di ricerca Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ) Spese di consumo ) Missioni in Italia ) Missioni all estero 5) Overhead Totale Project V5. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Assegni di ricerca Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ) Spese di consumo ) Missioni in Italia ) Missioni all estero 5) Overhead Totale Project V5. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Assegni di ricerca Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ) Spese di consumo ) Missioni in Italia ) Missioni all estero 5) Overhead Totale

15 General Statements and Organization Fund request per Project and per Project Phase (Euros) Project Funds 1 st Phase Funds 2 nd Phase Total Funds V1 Unrest V2 Paroxysm V3 Lava V4 Flank V5 Speed TOTAL Fund request per Project and per cost heading, divided into RU s led by an INGV or by a non-ingv scientist, for Projects V1-V4. Project Personale Missioni Costi Amministrativi Studi, Ricerche, e Prest. Prof. Servizi Materiale durevole e di consumo Spese indirette INGV Esterni INGV Esterni INGV Esterni INGV Esterni INGV Esterni INGV Esterni INGV Esterni INGV Esterni V1 Unrest V2 Paroxysm V3 Lava V4 Flank TOTAL TOTAL % Fund request for Project V5 and per cost heading, divided into RU s led by an INGV or by a non-ingv scientist. Project Assegni di ricerca Spese di consumo Missioni in Italia Missioni all estero Overhead Totale INGV Esterni INGV Esterni INGV Esterni INGV Esterni INGV Esterni INGV Esterni V Speed TOTAL % Fund request for general coordination and management Personale Missioni Costi Studi, Ricerche, Servizi Materiale durevole Spese indirette Altro Totale Amministrativi e Prest. Prof. e di consumo CU V0 General Coordination Totale 13

16 General Statements and Organization Fund request per cost heading for Projects V1-V4 Fund partition between INGV and Non-INGV RU s, and General Coordination and Management. Fund request per cost heading for Projects V1-V4, divided into INGV and non-ingv RU s. The meaning of colours is the same as for the two diagrams above. 14

17 CU V0 General Coordination and Management CU V0 General Coordination and Management In order to ensure the general coordination and management activities, the General Coordinator is Responsible of the Coordination Unit V0 described below. Responsible: Paolo Papale, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Via della Faggiola 32, Pisa, tel , mobile , fax , papale@pi.ingv.it RU Composition: Responsible Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Paolo Papale Research Director, General Coordinator of the INGV-DPC Projects in Volcanology INGV-Pisa 2 2 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Massimo Technician INGV-AC 3 3 Crescimbene, Managing Committee Secretary Lucia Civetta, Coordinator of Project V1 - UNREST Full Professor Univ. Napoli Federico II 0 0 Edoardo Del Pezzo, Coordinator of Project V1 - UNREST Antonella Bertagnini, Coordinator of Project V2 - PAROXYSM Sonia Calvari, Coordinator of Project V2 - PAROXYSM Alessandro Aiuppa, Coordinator of Project V2 - PAROXYSM Ciro Del Negro, Coordinator of Project V3 - LAVA Stefano Gresta, Coordinator of Professor in Geophysica INGV-OV Napoli 0 0 Senior Researcher INGV-Pisa 0 0 Senior Researcher INGV-Catania 0 0 Associate Professor Univ. Palermo 0 0 Senior Researcher INGV-Catania 0 0 Full Professor Univ. Catania

18 Project V3 - LAVA Giuseppe Pugliesi, Coordinator of Project V4 - FLANK Valerio Acocella, Coordinator of Project V4 - FLANK Giovanni Macedonio, Coordinator of Project V5 - SPEED Franco Barberi, Coordinator of Project V5 - SPEED Senior Researcher INGV-Catania 0 0 Researcher Univ. Roma Tre 0 0 Research Director INGV-OV Napoli 0 0 Full Professor Univ. Roma Tre 0 0 Activities and Objectives This CU (Coordination Unit) includes all the general management and coordination activities necessary for the execution of the Projects. The Responsible (General Coordinator) and the Project Coordinators, take part to this CU, and form the Project Managing Committee with the following tasks: Supervise the project execution and development, the project coherency with the foreseen activities, and the project administration and functioning. Interact with the Referents from the Department of Civil Protection. Manage the whole projects and ensure their progress. Verify the state of advance of the projects and the correspondence of their results with those foreseen in the INGV-DPC Agreement. Guarantee interaction between the projects, ensuring maximum collaboration with the General Coordinator. The activities aimed at the above purposes include the followings: Periodic meetings of the Managing Committee, with a frequency of at least one every 6 months, plus additional meetings when required. Organization of specific meetings aimed at ensuring interaction between the Projects, particularly on subjects of relevance for more than one Project. These meetings may include the participation of selected international experts, either from the International Evaluation Committee or external to it. Organization of the Evaluation meetings with the International Evaluation Committee foreseen in the INGV-DPC Agreement. Organization of activities other than Project meetings (foreseen within the organization of each Project) to evaluate the state of advance of the projects. Set up of additional activities necessary to the achievement of the project results. The General Coordinator calls the meetings of the Managing Committee, and defines the agenda. 16

19 CU V0 General Coordination and Management Specific tasks of the General Coordinator include the followings: Ensure the scientific coordination between the Projects, including the transfer of procedures, information, developments, etc., supported by the Project Coordinators. Act as the INGV-DPC Project spokesman. Supervise the Projects and watch over on Project deadlines. Interact with the INGV President and with the Director of PREN Office of the Civil Protection Department. Keep contacts with international experts and with the International Evaluation Committee. Set up and update a web site dedicated to the INGV-DPC Projects. The Financial Plan reported below reflects the activities foreseen to achieve the CU tasks. Particularly: the costs for personnel ( Spese di personale ) correspond to the costs due for the work of the General Coordinator; the costs for missions ( Spese per missioni ) include the costs for the several trips of the General Coordinator to participate to the periodic Project meetings and to interact with Coordinators and researchers, with the INGV President, with the INGV Administrative staff, and with the Director of PREN Office of the Civil Protection Department, plus a portion of the trip costs of the Project Managing Committee (12 people) during the organization and evaluation of meetings foreseen above; The costs for studies, research, and other professional services ( Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) include the fees for the International Evaluation Committee, a minimum of 4 trips to Italy for the periodic evaluation by the International Evaluation Committee (3 people), and the costs for inviting additional international experts to specific meetings as described above; The voice Altro (others) includes funds allocated to start new activities, or to strengthen the existing activities, in order to ensure the achievement of the Project objectives and realization of the Project products. Use of these funds, implying a redistribution of money within cost categories, will be agreed upon with the Department of Civil Protection. 17

20 Financial Plan of Coordination Unit V0 First Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b 1) Spese di personale Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 2) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) 8) Altro Totale Second Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b 1) Spese di personale Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 2) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) 8) Altro Totale

21 CU V0 General Coordination and Management Total Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b 1) Spese di personale Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 2) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) 8) Altro Totale , 19

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23 Project V1 Unrest PROJECT V1 UNREST 21

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25 Project V1 Unrest Coordinators: Project V1 - UNREST Realization of an integrated method for the definition of the unrest phases at Campi Flegrei Edoardo Del Pezzo, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Napoli Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, Napoli, Italy, delpezzo@ov.ingv.it Lucia Civetta, Università di Napoli Federico II, Via Cinthia, Napoli, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328 Napoli, Italy, civetta@ov.ingv.it Objectives It is known that the development and set up of techniques for data analysis and modeling aimed at defining the various phases of volcanic unrest is more challenging for dormant volcanoes, characterized by less frequent eruptions often with explosive character. Among such volcanoes, Campi Flegrei, where several hundred thousands people live, have been characterized during last decades by several bradiseismic crises which determined the partial evacuation of the population, as for the crises in and Recent studies developed in the frame of the INGV-DPC Agreement have revealed a process of unrest which continues since the fifties, and which presents macroscopic characteristics similar to the several decades long unrest period which led to the last eruption in AD Those studies have also remarked the relevant role played by the large fluid circulation system at Campi Flegrei, on the kind of signals registered by the monitoring network. It is clearly crucial, therefore, the development of a method for the interpretation of the signals from the multiparametric monitoring network. Such method should allow defining the state of the volcano and evaluating the probability associated to the occurrence of a volcanic eruption. In the frame of last INGV-DPC Agreement a method has been developed, which allows accounting of any information and associated uncertainty coming from historical, field, and modelling studies, and from the monitoring network, providing a probability on the state of the volcano and on the occurrence of an eruption. In the present project such a method will be explored and developed further, particularly through the experimentation of methods for the definition of reference parameters and thresholds, and of criteria and procedures to make it an operational tool useful for volcano surveillance and crisis management. As in the case of Campi Flegrei, the island of Vulcano hosts a well developed geothermal system which largely affects the signals registered by the monitoring network. Since the eighties Vulcano has shown significant changes in geochemical and geophysical signals which determined periodic intensification of the surveillance activities. In order to better understand the role of the presence of high temperature fluids on measured signals at Campi Flegrei, the present project will favour a comparative analysis between the two volcanic systems. The research in the project will include the following steps: a) Definition of the reference database for the validation of models of pre-eruptive dynamics. The database will include geologic, geophysic, geochemical and 23

26 hydrologic data. The methods of historical research on the phenomenologies observed before past eruptions can be also adopted. b) Quantitative analysis of measured signals, and formulation of hypotheses on source mechanisms. c) Definition of appropriate sets of conditions for the simulations at the following point (d), on the basis of a general conceptual model for the magma-rocksgeothermal system at Campi Flegrei. d) Physico-mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of the magmatic and geothermal process dynamics, and of the space-time relationships between such dynamics and the geophysical and geochemical signals measured at the surface. e) Definition of the critical parameters for the definition of the different unrest phases, and development of possible new methods for their determination. f) Realization of a prototype of an integrated multidisciplinary system for short term volcano hazard evaluation. This system should integrate the information coming from the monitoring network, the models and simulations, and any other kind of information source in the project, within a simple and efficient scheme like the Event Tree one. This should be useful in real time during emergencies, either real or simulated (as for the Mesimex exercise at Vesuvius in November 2006). g) Study of the methods for the operational use of the prototype above, and of the modalities for interfacing it with the DPC Functional Center. Expected products Data employed in the project, organized in a database. Definition of the expected space-time-dependent patterns of recorded signals during the different unrest phases, and their relationships with the deep volcano processes and dynamics. Definition of the criticality levels for the various unrest phases. Prototype of an integrated multidisciplinary system for short term volcanic hazard evaluation. Feasibility study for the realization of an interface at the DPC Functional Center, to be agreed upon with the same DPC, with reference to the prototype system above. State of the art of the ongoing researches related to the present objectives The CF caldera formed during two cataclismic eruptions: the Campanian Ignimbrite and the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff occurred 39 and 14.9 ka ago. After the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff eruption, both volcanism and deformation were very intense within the caldera, with at least 72 eruptions (the last of which occurred in A.D and formed the Monte Nuovo tuff cone) grouped in 3 epochs of activities separated by long periods of quiescence. The volcanic system is still active, as it is demonstrated by intense degassing (mainly from fumaroles), large ground deformation, and seismic activity, which define a period of unrest lasting from decades. During the last INGV-DPC Campi Flegrei project (V3_2) significant advancements in the evaluation of the volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei have been achieved. They mostly regard the: - Unrest dynamics and short-term volcanic hazard; - Volcanic scenarios and medium-longterm hazard, both constrained by the knowledge (evolution and present state) of the volcanic/magmatic system of Campi Flegrei. 24

27 Task 1: RU Coordinating (Civetta-Del Pezzo). RU Participating: Civetta, Del Pezzo, Festa, Chiodini, Freda. This Task is devoted to the construction of a information repository which should contain geological, geochemical, geophysical, hydro-geological and historical data. This repository is needed to constrain and validate all the physical and the conceptual models describing the pre-eruptive phenomenology. The realization of this task, that mostly deals with the system definition at CF, will follow these main lines of investigation: a) Inversion of geophysical data b) Analysis of the past magmatic history c) Laboratory determination of the rheological properties of the magmatic rocks d) Field survey of the fumaroles and water points. TASK 1 includes: Refinement and details (complexity of the interfaces) of the geological structure of Campi Flegrei caldera, through velocity and attenuation tomography. The evaluation of the existing results will be performed via the joint interpretation of independent geophysical models (such as velocity, attenuation, resistivity and density) in the same areas. This stage will be quantitatively approached by statistical methods of correlation among multiple post-inversion physical properties models (cluster analysis). The goal is to define a number of significant classes corresponding to regions of high correlation. Within each class such correlation will allow to infer lithological and physical/geochemical information. Lithological structure of Campi Flegrei caldera will be further defined through investigation of the morphology of the main reflectors; use of the beam-forming technique for the analysis of the diffracted wavefield; construction of a detailed density model of the Campi Flegrei caldera and modelling of the physical properties of the rocks at the main interfaces (RU Festa e Del Pezzo). Refinement and details of the magmatic structure of Campi Flegrei caldera through the determination of the P-T-X conditions of the magma reservoirs feeding eruptions younger than 5 ka, by analyses of Melt Inclusions in crystals, and determination of the magmatic components (geochemical and isotopical studies) involved in all the < 5 ka eruptions, not studied in the last project, to better constrain the magma chamber evolution and the mixing and differentiation processes occurring in the shallow and deep plumbing systems. Definition of the relationship between the dynamics of the resurgence, vent position and composition (in terms of magmatic components, magma chamber location and magma chamber processes) of magmas erupted over the past 5 ka. Definition of the time scales for the mixing processes in the magmatic system, by merging classic and experimental petrology, numerical simulations and chaos theory (RU Civetta). Catalogue of fumaroles and water points, possibly web based (RU Chiodini). Determinations of viscosity of latitic and shoshonitic melts as a function of temperature and dissolved water content. The data will be combined with those obtained at low temperatures to constrain a model for the Newtonian viscosity of latitic and shoshonitic magmas as a function of temperature and dissolved water content. The results will be used as input for simulations of the processes occurring in magma chamber and conduit. Determinations of physical properties of the main CF lithologies, such as density, porosity, seismic anisotropy of P-S wave velocities, micro-seismicity output during hydrostatic tests under conditions of pressure and temperature relevant to the area investigated (RU Freda). 26

28 Project V1 Unrest The results of major relevance for the purposes of DPC, obtained within the V3_2 project are described in the final report to the Civil Protection, dated July 2007 (V3_2, 2007). Most of them are extremely relevant for the present project, such as: a) the definition of the magmatic structure of CF, formed by a deep and large reservoir with top at a depth of km (detected from both seismic reflection and melt inclusion studies), and shallow reservoirs at 4-2 km depth (detected only by melt inclusions studies), characterised by repeated arrivals of deeper CO 2 rich less-differentiated magma and mixing processes. A new eruption often occurs in conjunction with new magma arrival in a shallow reservoir. b) The similarity between the historical reconstruction of earthquakes and bradiseismic events occurred in the years preceding the 1538 eruption and the present unrest episode further investigated during the project (1950 today), that suggests that the present unrest phase represents an event similar in its major characteristics to that which preceded the 1538 eruption, and together with that, unique at CF during the last 1500 years. c) The results of 2D numerical simulations of coupled magma-rock dynamics performed in order to establish links between deep, potentially hazardous magmatic processes (such as the arrival of new magma into a hypothetical shallow reservoir at CF) and measurable quantities at the surface. They show that complex convection and mixing dynamics occur in a magma chamber over the time scale of minutes or tens of minutes, even in cases where the initial CO 2 and density difference of the two magmas is very low. The above results represent however a first attempt to establish a link between signals measurable on the Earth surface, and deep, potentially hazardous magma dynamics. d) The results of inversion of gravity and deformation observed during the crisis, evidence the presence of new mass coming to shallow level from larger depth. e) Numerical simulations of the flow of gas-liquid mixtures through the porous rocks constituting the geothermal reservoir at CF show that it is possible to contemporaneously reproduce the long term (months) variations in gravity and the gas composition at fumaroles, by selecting appropriate gas inputs into the geothermal system. f) The whole results on magma, rock, and geothermal system dynamics can be organized in a conceptual frame, which allows to reasonably expect selected and well defined signals at the surface, that should occur in case of arrival of new magma into a shallow, small volume magma reservoir that may be present at relatively shallow depth at CF. g) In order to deal with the uncertainties associated with the extremely complex process of short-term hazard evaluation at CF, an approach based on Bayesian Event Tree has been developed. Such an approach allows an estimate of the probability of all possible volcanic outcomes and relative uncertainties, taking into account geological/geophysical models, expert opinions, past data and actual monitoring measures at the caldera. Description of the activities The Project is organized in 4 tasks. The bulk of the researches carried out in the present Project is also propedeutic for the Campi Flegrei Deep-Drilling Project (responsible G. De Natale, INGV-NA) and for ASI Project (responsible Fabrizia Buongiorno, INGV- CNT). The first project (De Natale) wants to create an interdisciplinary natural laboratory in the area of Campi Flegrei, centered on the multiple deep drilling both in land and sea. The first hole is presently planned near the dismissed industrial area of Bagnoli, North of Naples, close to the Caldera border. The research achievements within the present Project will be available for the CFDDP, and in case the CFDDP should start before the end of this Project, an intense and continuous exchange between the two projects is foreseen. The Second Project (Buongiorno) aims at the measurement of regional and local crustal deformation in the Central-Southern Italy. 25

29 Project V1 Unrest Task 2: RU Coordinating (Del Pezzo). RU participating: Bonafede, Scarpa, Del Pezzo, Chiodini, Saccorotti. Quantitative analysis of detected signals, and formulation of source models. This task is mostly devoted to the analysis of the experimental (seismological, geodetic, gravimetric, geochemical, volcanological) data, aimed at assessing the space-time background patterns, defining precursors, constraining the source models in terms of geological structure, source location and dimension, and density changes. Quantitative analysis of detected signals, and formulation of source models. Task 2 includes: Joint inversion of geodetic (leveling, EDM, GPS, SAR) and gravimetric data to infer location and depth of the magma source, taking into account caldera layering and several types of finite source, and its mechanism in terms of moment tensor. The elastic heterogeneities inferred from seismic tomography will be employed in two complementary computational schemes: the former (employed mainly from RU Scarpa, in collaboration with RU Bonafede) has the advantage of allowing fast evaluation of the displacement due to an assigned source, so that inversions may be rapidly performed at the onset of an unrest episode to retrieve source parameters from observed data. The second computational scheme takes into account the realistic topography and 3-D vertical and lateral heterogeneities unveiled by seismic tomography. Once the heterogeneities of the elastic structure are properly accounted for, the data provided by the geodetic and gravimetric networks may be used to increase the resolving power of models to detect complexities of the source mechanism. Definition of the background seismic noise properties, both from existing data and new experiments; comparison of Vulcano background seismicity with that of CF; detectability, nature and measure of the possible seismic precursors during the unrest phases at Campi Flegrei and Vulcano island (RU Del Pezzo). Quantification (in terms of moment tensor solution) of the event type classification at CF (Saccorotti). Quantitative analysis of the borehole dilatometers data and of the long baseline-strainmeters and tiltmeters data, paying particular attention at the interpretation in terms of the stress/strain diffusion phenomena occurring in the aquifer at CF (RU Scarpa). Definition of the components (magmatic, hydrothermal, meteoric etc.) involved in the fumarole systems of Campi Flegrei and Vulcano based on of chemical and isotopic data, to interpret the compositional changes as a function of variations affecting the deeper magmatic systems. The fumarole data will be compared with petrologic data of the corresponding magmatic systems (in collaboration with RU-Civetta). Improvement and development of new methods for the acquisition of geochemical and geophysical signals at volcanoes. In particular (i) a mobile infrared station to investigate the Solfatara systems; (ii) a low-price prototype of an automatic station for the continuous measurement of the dynamic pressure of fumarolic vents; (iii) a continuous gravity station for detecting gravity changes arising from the deep magmatic/hydrothermal system; (iv) a device for air CO 2, H 2 O and H 2 S continuous measurement. Time series of selected geochemical signals will be extracted from the OV monitoring data set (and from new data collected during the project) and elaborated in order to make possible a comparison with geophysical signals. The origin of the signal will be investigated in collaboration with other RU of this project also by means of specific physical numerical simulations (RU Chiodini). Numerical simulations of the dynamics of multiphase systems and wave propagation in complex, heterogeneous materials. In particular, simulations of 2D wave propagation to define the medium response to elementary force systems, with the final goal of unrevealing uniqueness and robustness of source mechanism determinations based on waveform modelling. Parametric studies based on numerical simulations of the dynamics of 27

30 multiphase fluid mixtures, to assess the range of variability of acoustical properties and the geophysical signals emerging from such dynamics (RU Saccorotti). Datasets of monitored parameters and phenomenological evidence of the two episodes of unrest of the early seventies and eighties, (RU Marzocchi). Task 3: RU Coordinating (Saccorotti). RU partecipating: Saccorotti, Civetta, Chiodini. Physical modelling and numerical simulation of the magmatic and geothermic processes and their space-time relations with the geophysical and geochemical signals detected. This task is mainly devoted at determining the physical models describing the mixing processes acting inside the magma chambers, the thermodynamical interactions between magma and geothermal system and the numerical solutions of the related equations to describe their surface effects. Task 3 includes: Quantification and characterisation of the dynamics of the magmatic and geothermal systems, and of the geophysical signals (gravity variations, ground deformations, seismicity) which are expected in response to transient episodes of magma and fluid injection. These latter events are expected to affect both the magma storage and hydrothermal systems, (RU Saccorotti). Conceptual model of the Campi Flegrei and Vulcano groundwater circulation (RU Chiodini). As regards magma storage, numerical simulations of magma dynamics using GALES, a finite element numerical code for the time-dependent 2D dynamics of multi-component compressible and incompressible magma, will be made. The conditions for the simulations will be defined together with the project consortium, and selected in order to be representative of possible new arrival of magma within the deep reservoir at 8 km of depth, and within possible small reservoirs at shallow depth. The simulations will describe the time-space dependent dynamics of magma mixing and convection. The expected patterns of gravity change will be determined by integrating in space the calculated time-dependent mass distributions. Time-space-dependent stress conditions computed at the magma-rock interface will be employed as boundary conditions for the numerical simulations of 2D/3D rock elasto-dynamics, taking into account rock heterogeneities, and the real topography. Some of the relevant system conditions will be varied in parametric studies in order to ascertain their influence on the general dynamics (RU Saccorotti). As regards the hydrothermal system, modeling will be carried out to investigate and quantify geochemical and geophysical signals, which may arise from the evolution of the hydrothermal circulation, according to different scenarios. The TOUGH2 multi-phase and multi-component geothermal simulator will be used to simulate heat and fluid flow through heterogeneous and fractured media. Observable parameters will be computed based on simulation results. Different scenarios will be defined incorporating recent data on CF (made available by last INGV-DPC project) and, when possible, taking into account results from models describing the evolution of the magmatic system at depth (RU Saccorotti). Task 4: RU Coordinating (Marzocchi). RU Partecipating: All the RU s for the application of BETEF_CF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting for Campi Flegrei). Task 4 deals with: Integration of the information from surveillance, models, numerical simulation, in a simple frame to be easily used during emergencies together with TASK 1 (RU Marzocchi). Application of BETEF_CF to the 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption and to the two episodes of unrest of the early seventies and eighties (RU Marzocchi). 28

31 Project V1 Unrest Realization of a prototype based on the event-tree algorithm, for the evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard, that integrates all the information from surveillance, models, numerical simulation, in a simple frame to be easily used during emergencies. Test of the above prototype and its interface with Centro Funzionale of DP (RU Marzocchi) 29

32 Flow chart of Project achievements and products 30

33 Project V1 Unrest 4. List of deliverables General 1. Repository of data, software and numerical simulation outputs utilized and produced in the project. 2. Definition of the space-time pattern of the background seismic activity and of the synthetic signals expected in case of unrest, together with their relations with deep magmatic processes. 3. Definition of the criticality levels for the different unrest phases. 4. Prototype of an integrated multi-disciplinary system for the short term volcanic hazard evaluation 5. Feasibility study for the realization of an interface between Scientific community and Civil Defense to make the Prototype operative Task 1. construction of a information repository which should contain geological, geochemical, geophysical, hydro-geological and historical data. 1. Tomography models refined 2. Refinement and details of the magmatic structure of Campi Flegrei caldera 3. Catalogue of fumaroles and water points 4. Lab determination of geophysical and rheological properties of the Campi Flegrei rocks Task 2. Quantitative analysis of detected signals, and formulation of source models. 1. Location and depth of magmatic source y joint inversion of gravimetric and deformation data 2. Definition of the background seismic noise properties. Comparison of Vulcano background seismicity with that of CF; detectability, nature and measure of the possible seismic precursors during the unrest phases at Campi Flegrei and Vulcano island 3. Moment tensor solution based event type classification at CF. 4. Datasets of monitored parameters and phenomenological evidence of the two episodes of unrest of the early seventies and eighties. 5. Chemical and isotopical definition of the fumarolic gases. 6. Set up of an infrared station, a continuous gravity station; a continuous monitoring station for CO 2, H 2 O H 2 S air components 7. Numerical simulations of the dynamics of multiphase systems and wave propagation in complex, heterogeneous materials. Task 3. Physical modelling and numerical simulation of the magmatic and geothermic processes and their space-time relations with the geophysical and geochemical signals detected 1. Quantification of the expected geophysical signals in response to transient episodes of magma injection. 2. Conceptual model of the Campi Flegrei and Vulcano groundwater circulation. 3. Numerical simulations of magma dynamics using GALES. 4. Expected geochemical and geophysical signals, in different secenarios, from results of modeling the hydrothermal system (THOUGH2) 31

34 Task 4. Integration of the information from surveillance, models, numerical simulation, in a simple frame to be easily used during emergencies 1. Application of BETEF_CF to the 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption and to the two episodes of unrest of the early seventies and eighties (RU Marzocchi). 2. Realization of a prototype based on the event-tree algorithm, for the evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard, that integrates all the information from surveillance, models, numerical simulation, in a simple frame to be easily used during emergencies. Test of the above prototype and its interface with Centro Funzionale of DPC. 32

35 Project V1 Unrest 3. PROJECT V1 UNREST TABLE MAN/MONTHS RU Institutions Principal Responsibles Task1 Task2 Task3 Task4 Mesi p. cofunded Mesi p. requested RU RU-2 RU-3 RU-4 UNINA, INGV, Univ. Munich, Univ. Perugia, Brown Univ. Providence, USA INGV OV, INGV- Roma1, INGV- CT, INGV-PA Univ. Perugia, Univ. Palermo, INRIM, UNAM, IUP Heidelberg, Univ. Goteborg INGV-BO, Univ Roma3, RMS London, Civetta, Poli, Orsi, De Campos, Rutherford Chiodini, Ventura, Cardellini, Berrino, Valenza, Inguaggiato, Taran, Kern Marzocchi, Scandone, Woo 12 (UNINA- Cococo) @ * RU-5 RU-6 RU-7 RU-8 INGV Roma1, ETH Zurich, UCL, London, ENS, Paris, Univ. Roma Sapienza, Univ Chieti INGV-PI, INGV- BO, Univ. Firenze, Univ. Pisa, INGV- NA, Univ. College, Dublin, Univ. SA, Carnegie Institution, Washington, USA, University of Colorado, USA Univ. Bologna, INGV Freda, Caricchi, Burlini, Meredith, Shubnel, Gaeta, Poe Saccorotti, Todesco, Longo, Cassioli, Barsanti, Bean, Petrosino Scarpa, @ RU-9 INGV-NA, INGV @ 70 2 Roma1, INGV-CT Rovelli, Patané, UniBA Siniscalchi Total *Requested within the present Agreement, but not included within the Project cost statement 33

36 Project V1 UNREST. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi ) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) Totale Project V1 UNREST. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) ) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi ) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) Totale

37 Project V1 Unrest Project V1 UNREST. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) ) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi ) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) Totale

38 Project V1 UNREST. Table RU s and related funding request. N. RU Istituz. Resp UR Personale Missioni Costi amministrativi Studi,ricerche e prestazioni professionali Servizi Materiale durevole e di consumo Spese indirette 1 st phase 2 nd phase 1 st phase 2 nd phase 1 st phase 2 nd phase 1 st phase 2 nd phase 1 st phas e 2 nd phase 1 st phase 2 nd phase 1 st phase 2 nd phase RU-1 UNINA Festa UNINA- RU-2 Civetta INGV-OV RU-3 INGV-OV Chiodini RU-4 INGV-BO Marzocchi INGV- RU-5 Freda Roma1 RU-6 INGV-PI Saccorotti RU-7 UNISA Scarpa RU-8 UNIBO Bonafede RU-9 INGV-OV Del Pezzo TOTAL GRAND TOTAL:

39 Project V1 Unrest PROJECT V1 UNREST Description of Research Units 37

40 38

41 Project V1 Unrest Project V1 UNREST Realization of an integrated method for the definition of the unrest phases at Campi Flegrei RU V1/01. Responsible: Gaetano Festa, Ricercatore, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, UniNA Federico II, via Coroglio 156, tel: , fax: RU Composition: Scientific Responsible Position Institution Man/Months Man/Months 1 st phase 2 nd phase Gaetano Festa Ricercatore UniNA 3 3 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Aldo Zollo Professore Ordinario UniNA 3 3 Nils Maercklin PostDoc UniNA 3 Maurizio Vassallo Ricercatore UniNA 3 3 Ortensia Amoruso Borsista UniNA 6 6 Tony Stabile PostDoc UniNA 4 4 Task 1 During the previous INGV-DPC project, a 3D velocity model has been obtained by merging active and passive data sets in a linearized tomographic inversion. Passive data consist of 606 earthquakes recorded during the bradiseismic crisis, whilst the active dataset is referred to the 1528 shots of the SERAPIS experiment in The tomographic images, achieved by accurate traveltime modelling and earthquake location, confirm the presence of a high P velocity ring in the southern part of the bay of Pozzuoli and extend its trace inland. This annular anomaly represents the buried trace of the rim of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Battaglia et al., 2008). The large value in the ratio Vp/Vs at about 1 km below the town of Pozzuoli has been ascribed to the presence of rocks that contain fluids in the liquid phase. Conversely, a low Vp/Vs body extending at about 3-4 km depth below a large part of the caldera is interpreted as the top of formations enriched in gas under supercritical conditions. Additional information on the shape of the anomalies in the Pozzuoli bay has been gathered by seismic reflection analysis on the SERAPIS data (Dello Iacono et al., 2008; Vassallo et al., 2008; Maercklin, 2008). The Common Mid Point sections indicate three main reflection events: (1) an interface at 500/700 m, which is the basement of incoherent, water saturated, volcanic and marine sediments that filled Pozzuoli Bay during the postcaldera activity with a high Vp/Vs ratio; (2) an interface at 3km depth, associated with the presence of gas-bearing rock layer (Vanorio et al. 2005); (3) an interface at 7.5km depth with strong negative Vp and Vs contrasts which can be related to the occurrence of partially molten rock in the layer below the interface, as observed beneath Vesuvius volcano (Auger, 2001). 39