European Freight Forwarding Index

Transcription

1 European Freight Forwarding Index 14 January 13 Erik Bergöö Søren Toft Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 12 of this report.

2 Main conclusion from survey Our proprietary European Freight Forwarding Index for December indicates that current volumes are falling compared with two months ago. The overall index value of current volumes came in at 41 compared with Novembers figure of 49. Participants expectations suggest flat volumes in the coming two months Jan-9 Jun-9 Nov-9 Apr-1 Sep-1 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 2

3 Lower volumes in December The freight forwarding index value for current volumes in December decreased to 41compared with 49 in November. Forward index values are now at 42 for January and 53 for February, which indicate expectations of flat volumes. volumes for Road (index 38) indicate that the current volume handled is down compared with two months ago. The index for November was 48. Expectations for Road (index 54) increased and indicate flat volume development over the next two months. Airfreight (index 42) indicates falling volume development. The index was down from Novembers reading of 59. Expectations for Airfreight (index 53 ) increased and indicate flat volumes over the next two months. The Seafreight (index 48) index value indicates flat volumes compared with two months ago. The index for November was 47. Expectations for Seafreight (index 54) increased and indicate flat volumes in the coming two-month period. 3

4 Segment breakdown of survey Road mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov Seafreight mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov Airfreight mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 4

5 Country breakdown of survey Benelux Denmark mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 Eastern Europe Finland mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12 5

6 Country breakdown of survey Germany UK mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov Norway Sweden mar-1 okt-1 maj-11 dec-11 jul mar-1 nov-1 jul-11 mar-12 nov

7 Country breakdown of survey Switzerland Other mar-1 okt-1 maj-11 dec-11 jul mar-1 okt-1 maj-11 dec-11 jul

8 How the survey is conducted Our respondents have answered these two questions: What volume of goods does your company handle today compared with two months ago (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)? Lower volume. Unchanged volume. Higher volume. How do you expect volumes of goods to develop over the next two months (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)? Lower volume. Unchanged volume. Higher volume. Their answers have been translated into an index value which can vary between and, with values above 5 indicating expansion among participating companies. 8

9 Segment breakdown for participants Other 18% Airfreight 12% Road % Seafreight 3% 9

10 Country breakdown for participants Other 8% Benelux 6% UK 12% Denmark % Switzerland 5% Sweden 1% Eastern Europe 13% Norway 7% Germany 1% Finland 9% 1

11 Number of participants 19 Number of Participants jan-9 apr-9 jul-9 okt-9 jan-1 apr-1 jul-1 okt-1 jan-11 apr-11 jul-11 okt-11 jan-12 apr-12 jul-12 okt-12 11

12 Disclosure This presentation has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (Danske Bank). The authors of the presentation are Erik Bergöö and Søren Toft, Analysts. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this presentation certifies that the views expressed in the presentation accurately reflect the research analysts personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the presentation. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from Danske Bank upon request. The research of Danske Bank is prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in the research policies of Danske Bank. Employees within Danske Banks Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Banks Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this presentation, including a sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Date of first publication See the front page of this presentation for the date of first publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication. 12

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