Comparative Role of LNG/ LPG in Japanese Market with its Policy Direction

Transcription

1 REI Resources Energy, Inc. Comparative Role of LNG/ LPG in Japanese Market with its Policy Direction Eiji Maezawa, EVP & COO Resources Energy, Inc. Japan Business Update, Anchorage September 16, 2014

2 (A) Overview INDEX (B) Energy Security (C) Price Consideration (D) New Energy Policy (May 2014) (E) Alaska (Cook Inlet) LNG Project 2

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4 Japan Electric Power & City Gas 9 EP companies except Hokkaido import total requirement for LNG thermal power. 8 city gas companies are importers and 3 major companies (Tokyo/Osaka/Toho) import over 70% of total requirement for City Gas Usage : 65%= Thermal Electric Power (occupying 43% of All Generated Power) 35%=City Gas to 29 MM Households (occupying 53% of All Households) Heating Value : LNG methane=9,700kcal /m3 City Gas =11,000 kcal LPG propane=24,000 kcal for household use butane=32,000 kcal for taxi etc. Hokkaido EP Okinawa EP Japan Sea Hokuriku EP Tohoku EP Chugoku EP Kyushu EP Pacific Ocean Tokyo EP/ Tokyo Gas Shikoku EP Chubu EP /Toho Gas Kansai EP/Osaka Gas 4

5 Power Composition for Hourly Demand (Seeking for Best Mix ) Generated Power Solar & Wind Power Annual Generated Power New energy Oil Characteristic Peak Load High Cost Easy power load adjustment Middle Load Mid Cost Power load adjustment possible Base Load Low Cost Constant power load Oil Pumped Storage Hydro LNG, LPG Nuclear Coal Large Hydro Geothermal LNG Coal Nuclear Hydro Source: METI Hour 5

6 (A) Overview / LPG Total Demand: 16.3 MM tons (2012) = Import 13.2 MM tons + 33 Domestic Refineries 3.1 MM tons with Decreasing Trend Import Sources (Mid East 80%): Qatar (30%), UAE (24%), Saudi Arabia (15%), Kuwait (14%) Import Terminals : 35 terminals with 42 shore side secondary terminals/ 2,200 cylinder filling stations Usage : 49% for 26 MM Households(occupying 47% of All Households) 30% for industrial/chemical, 6% (Butane) for Taxies=280,000 vehicles Unit: Thousand tons 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 19,703k tons 16,341k tons 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Power generation Chemical use Urban gas Automotive use Industrial use Residential and Commercial use FY FY

7 Diversified LP Gas procurement ~after completion of the Panama Canal Expansion Project~ Mid East import dependence 80% (nearly 100% if domestic refinery LPG included) U.S. Shale LPG import started this year with expected increase to 3 MM tons in 2017 Maritime route One-way transportation duration Freight rate 1 AG / Far East 18 days $50/Mt (market rate) 2 USGC/ Far East 45 days $156/Mt (market rate) 3 USGC/ Far East (via Panama) 22 days $83/Mt As of February 2014 Import terminals in Japan Shale-associated LP Gas production facilities in the United States The completion of the Panama canal expansion project in 2015 will enable the use of the canal for LP Gas transportation. VLGC(LP Gas tanker)47,000 tons 118 days 322 days days Panama Canal Photograph supplied by the Panama Canal Authority (Note: from Alaska, only 8 days with lower freight rate) 7

8 LNG (B ) Energy Security No Stockpiling (Strategic Reserve) obligation based on long term contracts and the diversification of import sources already made (Additionally, Market Circulation Stock = about 14 days is available) Some of LNG long term contracts with Reallocation Clause among Buyers and U.S. Shale Gas contracts with Flexible Destination Clause LPG 5 National Stockpiling terminals in place in 2013 (1.5 MM tons) Private Stockpiling obligation of 50 days supply (about 1.6 MM tons) (Additionally, Market Circulation Stock= 25 days is available) Advantage of dispersed on site energy form (cylinders and regional bulk system) with less damage and quicker recovery than city gas (LNG) and electricity at Fukushima Disaster in March 11,

9 Supply-side reinforcement ~Strengthening the LP Gas reserve system~ Over 100 days (3.1 MM tons) LPG Reserves by National and Private Sectors Current stockpile 822,000 tons (as of January 2014) tanks Aboveground Underground tanks National reserve (Gas being injected) Private-sector reserve 9

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11 (C) Price Consideration Deregulation of Electricity Business to household retail level in 2016 City Gas business deregulation to small sized factories and hotels in 2007 Over 60 % of Electricity and City Gas market is already deregulated. Fierce competition among Electric Power, City Gas and LPG industry Key is Competitive Price LNG JCC Linked Japan LNG Price rather high level, as compared to European NBP and U.S. Henry Hub market price level Absorbed in the public tariff of electricity and city gas to endconsumers, protected by such cost recovery system under governmental approval Criticism against Electric Power and City Gas Utilities and Pressure to lower LNG import price, especially after 2011 Fukushima Disaster 11

12 Comparison of Japan (JCC), U.S. (Henry Hub) and European (NBP) JCC link LNG price Up by 50% ( ) Japan Crude Oil Import Price Japan LNG Import Price(JCC link) European NBP Gas Market Price U.S. Henry Hub Gas Market Price Henry Hub is a U.S. natural gas pricing benchmark, situated at the distribution Hub on the natural gas system in Louisiana. NBP is National Balancing Point in U.K. for European natural gas pricing benchmark. Source: Japan METI 12

13 S Curve illustrated model in Japanese LNG contracts S Curve was introduced at the time of wider swing of Oil Price. This protection mechanism seems to have been phased out in most of contracts when much higher Oil Price has stayed on. Protection for Buyers at High Oil Prices Protection for Seller at Low Oil Prices Source: Jensen Associates 13

14 (C) Price Consideration LPG Japan & Asian standard price: CP (Contract Price) of Saudi Aramco monthly arbitrary announcement Fluctuation in the range of min.73% max.142% of Arabian Light crude oil heating value equivalent during LNG continues to stay more Competitive than LPG. Little Transparency of LPG household consumer price Monthly fluctuating CP + so many Wholesale (about 1,100) Retail (about 24,000) network with different cost in each area Criticism and Pressure to lower LPG import price and streamline domestic sales network 14

15 Transition of CIF Prices by Source The prices of LP Gas and LNG reversed briefly, but LNG continues to stay more competitive. [$/tons] 1,400 1,200 CIF price comparison with LNG and others, converted to LPG thermal equivalent 1, LP Gas LNG Naphtha Price difference $ 145 Price difference $217 Heavy oil A Source: Compiled based on Trade Statistics of Japan by the Ministry of Finance

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17 (D) New Energy Policy (May 2014) LNG s Position and Tasks Primary thermal(mid load) power fuel, occupying about 43% of total generated power in 2012, increased from 29% after 2011 Fukushima Disaster with the suspension of about 50 nuclear power units Alleviation of high import price The Balance of Trade Deficit=$76 billion in the first half of 2014 (the worst figure), primarily accelerated by increased LNG imports after 2011 all nuclear power suspension Going Forward Actions Promotion of U.S. Shale LNG projects (Henry Hub price introduction) to lower 20 30% weighted total price by LNG Buyers Participation in Upstream Acquisition of wellhead interest and Sales JV to offset price fluctuation Unification of LNG Procurement among major energy companies, led by Tokyo Electric Power Some local governments initiative for study of LNG stockpiling terminals with thermal power projects at Japan Sea side under Land Reinforcement Law (Dec. 2013) with Resources Energy, Inc. support 17

18 LPG s Position and Tasks Essential household clean energy with the need for streamlining of numerous domestic sales network Last Stronghold with advantage of dispersed on site energy at the time of natural disasters Lessen Middle East import dependency and Lower import costs Going Forward Actions Promotion of U.S. Shale LPG projects (Mont Belvieu price introduction) for diversification from Middle East dependency and from CP linked price Mergers among major LPG importers for bargaining power and internal cost reduction *Astomos = Mitsubishi and Idemitsu, *ENEOS Globe= JX, Mitsui and Marubeni, *Showa Shell/ Cosmo/ Sumitomo/ Tonen General Intensive streamlining activities of domestic wholesale/ retail network, including corporate mergers/tie ups and unification of cylinder filling stations/distribution centers 18

19 (E) Alaska (Cook Inlet) LNG Project Alaska (Cook Inlet) LNG project is another attractive source for Japan with mutual benefits for both Alaska and Japan. Resources Energy, Inc. has been promoting this project to start prior to Benefits for Alaska Continued & Increased development of Cook Inlet gas reserves with timely Revenue to the State of Alaska and Gas Producers Provides an Export Market for surplus Stranded Gas Reserves in Cook Inlet Provides gas supply to satisfy the Needs at Fairbanks & Rural Alaska Job Creation during Construction and Operation Provides Timely implementation of Small Scale LNG Project for future Alaskan Vast Gas Reserves Benefits for Japan Historical Record of 40 years Stable Supply from Kenai Lower Freight Rate with Shorter Shipping Distance U.S. DOE s favorable stance for Alaska LNG, Separate from lengthy regulatory process for lower 48 states projects Enhancing Energy Security Tie Between Alaska and Japan 19

20 Appreciate your continued support for Alaska (Cook Inlet) LNG Project with REI Thank you very much for your attention. 20