The Mobility Opportunity Improving urban transport to drive economic growth

Transcription

1 , CEO Infrastructure & Cities Sector, Siemens The Mobility Opportunity Improving urban transport to drive economic growth Answers for infrastructure and cities.

2 We are in the "urban millennium" Population 2009: 50% of the world's population lives in cities 2030: urban population will grow from 3.5 billion to 4.7 billion Economy ~50% of global GDP is produced in 600 cities By 2025, 40% of global GDP growth will be generated by middleweight cities in emerging markets Environment Cities stand for Two-thirds of the world's energy 60% of its drinking water Up to 70% of its CO 2 emissions Page 2

3 City Priorities Success determines competitiveness Efficient transportation of people and goods Reliable and efficient supply of energy Low emissions, water usage and waste Being competitive! Comfort, life quality and security Requirements are drastically changing from closed island solutions/ single products to cross-linked intelligent infrastructure solutions Page 3

4 Making our cities future-proof, calls for intelligent solutions 4 stages of infrastructure development "Brick&steel" infrastructure Road and railtracks Commercial buildings Electrification islands 1.0 (Semi-) automated infrastructure Electric railways and basic rail automation Modern standard buildings Mono-directional power grids Intelligent infrastructure Driverless trains Fully automated buildings Smart grids managing loads, storage and generation Fully integrated, intelligent infrastructure Integrated real-time optimization and incident handling across all infrastructure domains Intelligent solutions maximize capacity, increase efficiency, while using fewer resources and reducing costs Page 4

5 The intelligence of infrastructure yields significant and quantifiable benefits for our customers Rolling stock Road and rail Power and utility grids Buildings Impact of intelligence 20-30% capacity increase with driverless trains Save up to 30% life cycle cost Approx. 20% increase in city traffic speed. 30% energy savings Integration of Renewables: 25-40% lower investment (compared to traditional grid expansion) 20-30% less energy consumption 3-5 years payback Additional benefits Higher resilience and quicker outage/failure detection through real-time monitoring Automatic and highly reliable safety and security features No additional land use and shorter permission and construction process Page 5

6 London is a successful proof point of our approach Example for successful cooperation in London Siemens and London a close partnership We started working intensively with London in 2007 City Account Manager installed to drive early engagement and representing our entire portfolio We offer the specific domain know-how Interurban mobility: 1,200 vehicles for regional trains Automated video surveillance: Comprehensive CCTV services to improve community safety Hybrid Buses: Consume ~40% less fuel and emissions Toll System: City congestion charging system and enforcement of low-emission zone E-mobility project: Supply of software solutions, related services and charging stations Smart Grid: Collaboration with UK Power Networks to develop a power distribution concept for 2020 Page 6

7 In Shanghai we have successfully implemented our approach in a fast growing market Example for successful cooperation in Shanghai City Account Manager established Close cooperation with Shanghai government and authorities Participation in the study of Low-Carbon development of Hongqiao Business District Metro: Switchgear systems for 5 metro lines, propulsion system for 138 cars of Metro Line 11 E-Mobility: Delivery and installation of 144 charging stations for e-cars in the city Shanghai Green building solutions for Shanghai International Cancer Hospital Building Energy Saving and energy consumption monitoring systems for 4 big hospitals Smart Grid: Strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai government of new technologies Page 7

8 Thought leader to help cities increase competitiveness Examples Partnering with key stakeholders Crystal in London as global knowledge hub for urban sustainability Examples Research and consultancy services Page 8

9 The mobility challenge Transport key for urban competitiveness Infrastructure under increasing pressure due to population and labor force growth, urbanization Aging/underdeveloped infrastructure Financial constraints Key question: How can cities improve their transport infrastructure to make them fit for the future and bring the most economic benefits? Research: The Mobility Opportunity Improving urban transport to drive economic growth Page 9

10 Paris: Grand Paris Express metro extension is expected to realize material economic benefit 200 km of new metro line focused on connecting the outer suburbs by 2030 The investment will construct four new orbital metro lines (Lines 15, 16, 17, & 18) The investment will increase capacity on the metro network by around 20% (in terms of passenger km) Paris is also investing to improve the quality of existing metro and RER lines, although we have excluded this investment from our analysis Quantitative assessment Investment (current $) Change in economic cost of transport (% GDP per capita till 2030) ~ $27bn Timescale % à 12.5% Qualitative assessment Crowding êê Reliability ééé Quality éé Extra capacity in outer rings takes passengers off main metro New rolling stock and lines highly reliable plus improvements to existing routes Interoperability, information systems and wifi Annual value of benefit (by 2030) Direct Wider economic Impact Years to pay back (including wider economic impact) $1.6bn $1.1bn ~10 Journey time ê Point to point journey times between suburbs and to outlying business districts greatly reduced Economic value add (value over life post payback) $55bn Sources: Railway Gazette, Railway Technology, UN Urbanisation Statistics, World Bank, Credo research & analysis Page 10

11 Johannesburg: Investment in BRT is expected to pay off in shorter timescales than big metro investment The Rea Vaya Bus Rapid Transit network in Johannesburg currently comprises 48 stations and 59km of trunk roads Phase 1C, which commenced construction in March of this year and will be complete by 2017, adds a further c. 20km of trunk roads and 240 buses to the fleet The lower cost of BRT vs. rail is expected to see investment paid back in a shorter timeframe than larger investments Quantitative assessment Investment (current $) Timescale Change in economic cost of transport (% GDP per capita till 2030) ~ $290m Now % à 20.1% Qualitative assessment Crowding Reliability Quality Journey time Page 11 ê éé é êê Bus capacity will increase by 30%, helping to reduce crowding levels Dedicated BRT lanes improve reliability vs. regular buses currently in place on many routes New fleet will improve user experience and service quality Journey times likely to reduce thanks to dedicated bus lanes Annual value of benefit (by 2030) Sources: Rea Vaya website, UN Urbanisation Statistics, World Bank, Credo research & analysis Years to pay back (including wider economic impact) Economic value add (value over life post payback) Direct Wider economic Impact $50m $25m ~4 $2bn

12 Beijing: Wide spread investment in new and extended metro lines to address capacity issues Beijing's metro network is currently under severe capacity constraints We have assessed expansion plans covering 16 lines, which will include 300km of new lines and 205 stations Overall, this will increase capacity by c. 77% in terms of passenger kilometers Comprehensive views on cost of investments are hard to source. We have estimated the cost based on historic projects where data is available Quantitative assessment Investment (current $) Timescale Change in economic cost of transport (% GDP per capita till 2030) ~ $20bn Now % à 10.4% Qualitative assessment Crowding êê Increased capacity will see crowding on the Beijing metro materially re-duce (although likely to remain an issue) Annual value of benefit (by 2030) Direct Wider economic Impact $0.6bn $0.3bn Reliability Quality Journey time Page 12 é é êê New lines and rolling stock likely to have some impact on quality New rolling stock likely to improve quality, but current focus is on capacity The new lines will materially increase network density, helping reduce journey times Years to pay back (including wider economic impact) Economic value add (value over life post payback) Sources: Railway Technology, China Daily, The Nation, UN Urbanisation Statistics, World Bank, Credo research & analysis ~22 $7bn

13 São Paulo: Extensions to monorail are expected to pay back investment within five years São Paulo has a wide range of investment plans in place; we assess the plans to extend its monorail network The lines we assess are the 24km Expresso Tiradente, which is expected to be complete by the end of this year, and the 18km extension to Line 17 (Gold) line The city is also investing in its network in a number of other areas, such as through new fleet, but this investment is excluded from our analysis Quantitative assessment Investment (current $) Change in economic cost of transport (% GDP per capita till 2030) ~ $3bn Timescale % à 14.6% Qualitative assessment Crowding Reliability Quality Journey time Page 13 ê éé é ê 15% growth in capacity across monorail will reduce crowding Automatic train operation and vehicle management systems likely to improve reliability New rolling stock will improve user experience Journey times will reduce as passengers are able to avoid using congested road network Annual value of benefit (by 2030) Sources: Railway Technology, UN Urbanisation Statistics, World Bank, Credo research & analysis Economic value add (value over life post payback) Direct Wider economic Impact Years to pay back (including wider economic impact) $0.4bn $0.2bn ~5 $7bn

14 Moscow: Putting the metro in walking distance of 90% of Moscow s citizens Investment addressed includes 120km of metro line extensions, including 57 stations added by 2020 These schemes will increase the capacity of the Moscow metro by around 40% (in terms of passenger km) Network density will be improved, with 90% of Moscow s citizens in walking distance of a metro station by the end of the program 150 construction sites, 20 complex tunnel developments and 40,000 workers over construction period Quantitative assessment Investment (current $) Timescale Change in economic cost of transport (% GDP per capita till 2030) ~ $13.5bn Now % à 16.5% Qualitative assessment Crowding êê New capacity will help alleviate crowding and extend metro network Annual value of benefit (by 2030) Direct Wider economic Impact $0.6bn $0.3bn Reliability é On new lines with new rolling stock Quality é New rolling stock will improve user experience Years to pay back (including wider economic impact) ~15 Journey time êêê Point to point journey times between suburbs and to outlying business districts greatly reduced Economic value add (value over life post payback) $14bn Sources: Moscow Department of Transport, UN Urbanisation Statistics, World Bank, Credo research & analysis Page 14