AG R I C U LT U R E GREEN ECONOMY

Transcription

1 THIS IS THE STORY OF AG R I C U LT U R E GREEN ECONOMY We need to make the global economy green. provides significant opportunities for growth, investment and jobs to help make this happen. $ Everyone needs agriculture. feeds our entire population and produces fibre for clothing, feed for livestock and bioenergy. Particularly in the developing world, agriculture contributes significantly to GDP growth, leads the way in poverty reduction and accounts for the lion s share of employment opportunities, especially for women. also has one of the highest potentials for reducing carbon emissions and helping vulnerable people adapt to climate change. and the To see the interactive version of the infographic, visit:

2 How can we feed future generations? How can we reduce poverty around the world? As world population grows, crop production needs to keep up. INCIDENCE OF EXTREME RURAL POVERTY (% of rural people living on less than US$1.25/day) Of the 1.4 billion people living in poverty, 1 billion live in rural areas. Source: IFAD To feed a global population of 9 billion by 2050 will require a 70 percent increase in global food production. WORLD POPULATION 10bn 8bn 4bn Least developed Most developed Source: UN DESA predicted CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION (tonnes) 5bn 4bn 2bn Increasing yields is an important way to help protect land. 1bn Oceania Europe Asia Latin America North America Africa predicted STAT Latin America 8.8% Sub-Saharan Africa 61.6% 9% 14% SOURCES OF GROWTH IN CROP PRODUCTION Arable land Crop intensity Yield 14% 9% % 77% Region Sub-Saharan Africa Near east/ North africa Latin America Carribean South Asia East Asia Increase in arable land Increase in crop intensity Increase in yield 1.4bn Middle East & North Africa 3.6% 1.4bn 1.0bn South Asia 25.6% 1.0bn East Asia 15.3% The World Bank estimates that 1 hectare of land will need to feed 5 people in 2025, whereas in hectare was required to feed only 2 people. WORLD WORLD living in poverty 1.0bn of which live in rural areas Growth in agriculture is the most powerful force for reducing poverty. GDP growth from agriculture generates at least twice as much poverty reduction than any other sector. POVERTY REDUCTION POTENTIAL (sectoral growth and correlation with $1 a day poverty index) Agricultural labour productivity Tax revenue Health expenditure per capita Exports of goods and services Fixed investments Trade Public sector Source: ODI

3 Why does agriculture matter to a green economy? Where do we invest to build a green economy? Worldwide, agriculture accounts for... We need to create livelihoods in places where these resources are managed, and it is in these areas that people are most vulnerable. Since 1980, foreign aid and domestic investment in agriculture have fallen. Public spending allocated to agriculture declined to under 7% in 2000, and the share of ODA to agriculture fell to 5% in FOREIGN AID TO AGRICULTURE (constant 2007 $bn, % of total aid) Source: IFPRI 22.5% 22.2% 18.9% 15.7% 70% 34.3% 17-30% 37.3%!"!"!"!"#$%& WATER CONSUMPTION LAND AREA GHG EMISSIONS LABOUR FORCE 12bn 9bn 11.2% 11.6% 9.9% 8.1% 5.4% 5.9% 70% 34.3% 17% Deforestation 13% 37.3% GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON AGRICULTURE (constant 2007 $bn by country type) Source: World Bank 41% OF TOTAL FARMERS WORLDWIDE ARE WOMEN And they make up a majority of workers in two regions SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 64.3% 59.5% men SOUTH ASIA 39.9% men women 64.5% women 97% OF AGRICULTURAL WORKERS ARE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 15bn 12bn 9bn Sources (clockwise): IWMI, Foresight, WRI, CIA, World Bank, FAO, ILO -based Transforming Urbanised

4 Meanwhile the rate of crop yield growth is slowing down. Grain yield growth in developing has fallen from 3% per year between to 1% increase per year today. How can we build a more sustainable supply chain? CROP YIELD GROWTH (%) Over the past four years, prices have been volatile. Countries have reacted by reducing exports... Between 2006 and 2008, international food prices doubled. In 2008, some 40 imposed bans or restrictions on exports of food. 1.0 FAO FOOD PRICE INDEX ANNUAL CHANGE IN AG EXPORTS (%) Source: WTO Wheat Maize Rice The example of China shows how investments in research can improve crop yields For China, aggregate growth originating in agriculture is estimated to have been 3.5 times more effective in reducing poverty than growth outside agriculture. CHINESE INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE R&D (million Yuan) 12bn Annual growth rate (%) 3.2% Source: IFPRI 8.5% % average amount of world crop production that enters international trade 09 9bn This causes food shortages around the world, while worldwide obesity levels are also increasing. The 2008 food price spikes pushed about 100 million poor people into the ranks of the world s hungry while the level of obesity worldwide has doubled since the 1980s CHINESE CEREAL YIELD (kg per hectare) Source: World Bank NUMBER OF HUNGRY PEOPLE, WORLDWIDE 1bn 500m NUMBER OF OBESE PEOPLE, WORLDWIDE 15% % Source: WHO 3000 Growth % % Men Women

5 Losses throughout the supply chain result in far too much food never reaching the plate. It has been estimated that as much as 30%of all food grown worldwide may be lost or wasted before and after it reaches the consumer. Some estimates have placed it as high as 50%. How can we manage environmental sustainability with economic viability? Climate change threatens our global economy. FIELD, Crop Protection Institute, FAO, AVRDC, Foresight Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year. Farmers in the least developed are amongst the most vulnerable. MEAN LOSSES IN PER CAPITA GDP (%) FROM CLIMATE CHANGE Source: Stern Report FIELD LOSSES In developing, losses can often represent about 30-40% of a crop. Without the presence of crop protection products, losses would double. Without fungicides, yields of most fruits and vegetables would fall by 50-90%, making fresh produce unaffordable to many. -5% Global mean temperature (above pre-indusrial) 1 o C 2 o C 3 o C 4 o C 5 o C 6 o C 7 o C 8 o C 9 o C -10% High climate, market impacts + risk of catastrophe -15% Baseline climate, market impacts + risk of catastrophe + non-market impacts STORAGE & DISTRIBUTION A household metal silo with a capacity of 1,000 kilos can conserve the grain needed to feed a family of five for one year, or allow a farmer to store surplus grain. -20% High climate, market impacts + risk of catastrophe + non-market impacts But agriculture has a huge mitigation potential. Improvements in crop yield since the 1960s have reduced emissions by up to 13 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. PROCESSING & PACKAGING Use of a 25kg capacity polystyrene crate with shredded paper could reduce damage to tomatoes by 11-18% compared to a carton box. Every dollar invested in agriculture results in 68kgC fewer emissions. $1 Crop yield improvement has saved 34% of total human carbon emission. 161 GtC Emissions prevented from being released PROCESSING & PACKAGING In the Netherlands an intermediate target of 20% in reduction of food waste has been set for 2015, aiming for 50% by GtC Total emissions between FORK 688kgC 68kgC Source: Burney, et al

6 Water is crucial and is probably agriculture s critical limiting factor. Around 1.2 billion people, or almost one-fifth of the worlds population, live in areas of physical scarcity, and 500 million people are approaching this situation. GLOBAL WATER GAP BETWEEN EXISTING WATER SUPPLY & PREDICTED 2030 WITHDRAWALS (billions m 3 ) Source: 2030 Water Resources Group 4200m 3 Existing, accessible, sustainable supply Domestic Industry 600m 3 800m 3 900m m m m 3 RESULTS FROM INDIA IN SHIFTING FROM CONVENTIONAL TO DRIP IRRIGATION Source: IWRA Crop Change in Change in water Water yield (%) use (%) productivity (%) Banana Cabbage Sugarcane Sweet Potato Tomato Large areas of the world s cropland are seriously degraded. By 2050 an estimated half of current arable land will become unusable due to desertification and land degradation withdrawals 2030 withdrawals (predicted) HUMAN INDUCED SOIL DEGRADATION Source: IFAD Improving water productivity in agriculture through increased yields and drip irrigation is key. In theory, a 1% increase in water productivity in food production makes available an extra 24 litres a day per person. WATER PRODUCTIVITY PER UNIT OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (kg/m 3 ) Source: IWMI Wind erosion 1035 million hectares Chemical deterioration Deterioration of physical soil structure 2.5 Water erosion Wheat 2.0 Maize Rice Good agricultural practices can help preserve and protect arable land. 1.5 Minimum or no tillage can help reduce soil erosion by 50-98% and also improves soil quality and moisture retention.. CONSERVATION TILLAGE IN GHANA HAS LIMITED SOIL LOSS AND WATER RUNOFF Area of greatest potential 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Yield (kilograms per hectare) Soil Loss (t/ha year) Water Runoff (%) BARE FALLOW MINIMUM TILLAGE NO TILLAGE

7 The transition to a green economy is fundamental for addressing the social, environmental, and economic pillars of sustainable development. As a sector, agriculture is essential to the green economy. With a predicted 9 billion people by 2050, agricultural production will have to increase to meet new demands, for food, feed, fuel and fibre. must not only meet demand it must also do so while minimising its environmental footprint and creating sustainable livelihoods for farmers and others along the supply chain. In a time of food insecurity and with the largest share of its population in developing living in rural areas, the world cannot afford to ignore the potential of agriculture to achieve the triple goals of a secure food supply, poverty reduction through improved rural livelihoods, and environmental sustainability through reduced footprint of production and climate change adaptation. by nature represents a mosaic of solutions and practices, focused on farmer needs and knowledge sharing. Sustainability is a moving target towards which farmers in different geographies and farming systems are already moving and they will need support to continuously improve. in a green economy means a broad-based, knowledge-centred approach to agricultural development. Key to achieving this goal is a focus on: The Farming First coalition supports the implementation of the outcomes of CSD17 on agriculture as the basis for any outcome on agriculture for Rio+20. Recommendations to Policymakers As global leaders prepare to meet at the Rio+20 (UNCSD) summit in 2012, they should not neglect the central role of agriculture in delivering a green economy and to the role of farmers as drivers of these changes. Comprehensive solutions are needed for sustainable agriculture, and the Farming First Principles offer a comprehensive view of how this may be achieved. In the context of discussions on the Green Economy, Farming First supporters offer the following recommendations for incorporating agriculture into their agenda focusing on the green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication. 1. Reducing poverty Make agriculture a driver for poverty reduction by ensuring policies link producers to markets and enable value to be created throughout the supply chain to help create income opportunities and diversify rural activities. 2. Enhancing sustainable productivity The world will need to produce more with less to meet demand and reduce its environmental footprint. Increasing production and productivity should be a priority to protect habitat. 3. Innovation, Research and Extension Services Invest in training, knowledge sharing, extension services, as well research and development to close the uptake gap for existing tools and ensure new solutions are available for tomorrow. Farming First Farming First is a global coalition representing the world s farmers, scientists, engineers and industry as well as agricultural development organisations. Farming First calls for a broad- based, knowledge-centred approach to increase agricultural output in a sustainable and socially responsible manner. To view Farming First s position on the green economy, visit: Web: info@farmingfirst.org Farming First TV: Supporter List: