2 Blind Mice & the GOM Marine Business Case for LNG Fuel

Transcription

1 2 Blind Mice & the GOM Marine Business Case for LNG Fuel Marine Money Houston Offshore Forum Saint Regis Hotel 3 April 2014 Houston, TX John Hatley PE LNG Initiatives Americas VP Ship Power Wartsila North America, Inc. Cell john.hatley@wartsila.com 1 Wärtsilä

2 Agenda What? Why? How? Application Conclusions Competitive Forces Emission Areas Expansion Owner Choices? 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Gas Technical Viability Integrated Gas Solutions Risk Mitigation Business Case Jones Act Coastwise Tanker Cargo, Owner, Banker Views Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

3 Agenda What? Why? How? Application Conclusions Competitive Forces Emission Areas Expansion Owner Choices? 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Gas Technical Viability Integrated Gas Solutions Risk Mitigation Business Case Jones Act Coastwise Tanker Cargo, Owner, Banker Views Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

4 Competition Model Forces SHALE GALE Porter s 5 Forces + 1 Government Legislation exercises market influence emissions Government Legislation: Political power exercising market influence: Trade Behavior, Emissions

5 Major Global Shale Basins Source: 5 Wärtsilä 07 April 2014

6 Global Gas Production USA is world s #1 gas producer US Shale gas production, by itself, exceeds all nations except Russia Source: LNG for Marine Transportation USA, Houston TX, June 12, 2013; David Sweet President Natural Gas Roundtable 6 Wärtsilä 07 April 2014

7 Emission Control Areas More Emission Control Areas ECA likely soon 7 Wärtsilä

8 ECA Vessel Owner Choices 1. Consume compliant Ultra Low Sulfur Distillate expensive champagne fuel 2. Switch to alternative fuel: safe, clean, abundant, affordable, & available natural gas as LNG 3. Alternative Compliance install new technology scrubber CAPEX, OPEX, space, weight, complexity, & operational tradeoffs 4. Abort the Port ECA and SECA mandates force timely choices options 1,4 invoke business reset LNG OPEX Savings 8 Wärtsilä 07 April 2014

9 Agenda What? Why? How? Application Conclusions Competitive Forces Emission Areas Expansion Owner Choices? 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Gas Technical Viability Integrated Gas Solutions Risk Mitigation Business Case Jones Act Coastwise Tanker Cargo, Owner, Banker Views Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

10 Americas Natural Gas Preference Drivers 2 Shale Gas Phenomena: Availability + Affordability 3 US EPA Mandates: Fuel Sulfur content reductions + Geographic bubble Emissions Control Area + Stringent Engine emissions Tier 2,3,4 10 Wärtsilä

11 Shale Gas Plays Shale. huge reserves natural gas; nearly century supply 11 Wärtsilä

12 Abundant Gas Supply Paradigm shift to shale gas; now 25% of supply... half 12 Wärtsilä

13 Annual Shale Gas Production Other US Bakken ND Eagle Ford TX Marcellus PA Haynesville LA 24% CAGR Woodford OK Fayetteville AR Barnett TX Antrim MI, IN 41% CAGR 17% CAGR Shale production surge 2006 frantic 2010 strong

14 Key: Fuel Prices on Energy Basis $ / mmbtu cst HFO 1% MGO 0.1% diesel LNG Japan LNG Europe LNG USA Fuel price dominates vessel OPEX gas is competitive priced & cleanest in Americas 14 Wärtsilä 07 April 2014 Peter H Jantzen

15 Emission Control Area ECA US & Canada Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands 2014 ECA bubble encapsulates any flag ships nautical miles low sulfur fuel (equivalence) enforceable August April 2014 Source: US EPA, Designation of North American Emission Control Area to Reduce Emissions from Ships

16 No. Am. ECA Fuel Sulfur Limit Fuel Sulfur 0.10 % limit commences 1 January 2015 Source: /north_american_emission_control_area.asp 16 Wärtsilä

17 5 US Game Changers EPA Engine Emissions US centuries shale gas supply Emissions Control Area 2012 Natural Gas bargain EPA Fuel Standards 5 gas drivers shale supply + bargain prices + 3 EPA mandates = set Investment Clock Source: EIA March 2010 Shale Gas Plays Lower 48 States

18 Agenda What? Why? How? Application Conclusions Competitive Forces Emission Areas Expansion Owner Choices? 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Gas Technical Viability Integrated Gas Solutions Risk Mitigation Business Case Jones Act Coastwise Tanker Cargo, Owner, Banker Views Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

19 Packaged Gas Solution 1. Fueling Station 2. Gas Storage 1 3. Evaporators 4 4. Gas valve unit enclosure Dual-Fuel Main engine 6. Dual-Fuel Aux engines 5 3 Wartsila proven complete LNG system minimizes installation & operational risk = assured performance reduces risk for yard, owner, & banker extends value proposition to end customer 19 Wärtsilä 07 April 2014

20 Harvey Gulf 6 US Flag LNG Powered Vessels Source: STX US Marine Design Source: STX US Marine Design World s first LNG boats for US GOM based on European proven decade of experience Wartsila LNGpac kit reduces risk 07/04/2014

21 Dual-Fuel Natural Gas Engines 20DF 6L20DF 1.0 MW 8L20DF 9L20DF 34DF 6L34DF 50DF 9L34DF 12V34DF 16V34DF 20V34DF 6L50DF 8L50DF 9L50DF 12V50DF 16V50DF Gas engine power range target emissions sensitive ECA coast and port area vessels 18V50DF MW

22 4 Key Risks Gas Engine Technology does it work? proven leading edge not bleeding edge LNG Supply Security.. must have fuel! operational certainty LNG Price Volatility. justifiable investment? enduring savings benefits Shipyard Construction... cost over-runs? LNG learning curve Seeking Competitive Advantage with Gas fuel 22 Wärtsilä

23 25 Years Experience Wärtsilä gas engines GD = Gas Diesel engine SG = Spark Ignited Gas engine W20DF W34DF W20V34SG DF = Dual Fuel engine W50DF W180SG W220SG W32DF W28SG W34SG W46GD W25SG W32GD Gas engines time tested, real, & here now

24 Risk LNG Supply Security Backstop Early stages LNG supply Many first movers Local Distribution Companies Oil & Gas Majors 18 March 2014 ABS Guide Provides guidance toward LNG Supply Sources Vessel owner assurance some suppliers guarantee LNG delivery or they will provide EPA compliant low sulfur diesel during transition at agreed LNG pricing no $ loss to owner! 24 Wärtsilä

25 Risk LNG Price Volatility Natural Gas Henry Hub Forecasts Energy Information Agency EIA forecasts prices receding = gas bargain 25 Wärtsilä

26 Risk Shipyard Construction transfer how to knowledge Reduced technical risk Total solution from 1 provider Peace of mind & fast track Wartsila on site PM 26 Wärtsilä

27 Agenda What? Why? How? Application Conclusions Competitive Forces Emission Areas Expansion Owner Choices? 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Gas Technical Viability Integrated Gas Solutions Risk Mitigation Business Case Jones Act Coastwise Tanker Cargo, Owner, Banker Views Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

28 March 2014 Crude imports falling rapidly US refiners shift domestic shale crude as GOM refineries fully subscribed Eagle Ford Domestic sweet crudes moves to US Atlantic Coast Jones Act vessels lifting Logistic pipeline and rail bottlenecks waterborne lifts moving rapidly to fill transport needs. 28 Wärtsilä

29 Corpus Christi Waterborne Crude Loads BBL / Day 300K Hectic historic growth & forecast even stronger 200K 100K 0 Source: Platts Special Report New Crudes, New Markets March Wärtsilä

30 The Route Corpus Christi to Delaware United States Jones Act Vessels Emission Control Area ECA Bound 3,622 Nautical Mile distance

31 Tanker Vessel Particulars Jones Act Articulated Tug Barge 50,000 DWT Capacity Speed 13.6 knots Twin Screw Total propulsion power 12,000 HP ( 9,000 kw ) Manning 14 & SOLAS Compliant Certified Major Class Society Speed provides 13.5 annual round trips from Corpus Christi to Delaware Refineries vessel size yields competitive low cost BBL delivery economics 31 Wärtsilä

32 4 Stakeholders At fair return capturing risks SHIP OWNER Ultimate Environment Safety PUBLIC CARGO OWNER 32 Wärtsilä Transport safely at optimal cost BANKER Are risks understood & I m repaid!

33 Recall? 33 Wärtsilä

34 Cargo Owner Transport safely at optimal cost 13.6 knots 13.6 knots 13.6 knots Strong cargo unit savings for vessels running on LNG fuel 34 Wärtsilä

35 Cargo Owner Move it safely at optimal cost 13.6 knots 13.6 knots 13.6 knots LNG fuel choice brings millions transport savings $3.4 to $4.8 million over five years per vessel 35 times Wärtsilä how many ships?

36 Ship Owner A fair return capturing risks 13.6 knots 13.6 knots 13.6 knots Competitive Advantage LNG adjusted hurdle rate is appealing & yet preserves cargo owner savings. 36 Wärtsilä

37 Ship Owner A fair return capturing risks Millions $35 $30 EBITDA LNG Fuel $25 LNG fuel has strongest EBITDA + $3.5 Million over HFO+ Scrubber and + $5.2 Million atop MDO. 37 Wärtsilä $20 $15 MDO Fuel HFO + Scrubber Years

38 Stress Test BASELINE LNG Revenue $35.84 M CAPEX $157.8 M Bank Interest 4.76% LNG Price 601 $/mt Sensitivity Impact Rank Revenue CAPEX LNG Price Bank Interest Rate Stress test provides key perspectives on relative impacts to investment returns. 38 Wärtsilä ROE +10% + 5% - 5% -10% -15% Deviation

39 Banker Are risks understood & I m repaid! 13.6 knots 13.6 knots 13.6 knots Cover is strongest on LNG choice over alternative fuels. 39 Wärtsilä

40 Banker Are risks understood & I m repaid! Millions $20 EBIT LNG Fuel $10 $0 MDO Fuel HFO + Scrubber ( $10 ) Years LNG fuel has strongest EBIT Depreciation 10 Year MACRS ½ Year Convention Drydockings years 5,10,15,20 40 Wärtsilä

41 4 Stakeholders But also retain a fair return capturing risks SHIP OWNER PUBLIC CARGO OWNER Good lets go faster, get 1 added voyage in each year and move more BBL! BANKER 41 Wärtsilä

42 Faster Tanker Vessel Particulars Jones Act Articulated Tug Barge 50,000 DWT Capacity Speed 13.6 knots Twin Screw Total propulsion power 12,000 HP ( 9,000 kw ) Manning 14 & SOLAS Compliant Certified Major Class Society 16,000 HP ( 12,000 kw ) Higher speed provides 14.5 annual round trips from Corpus Christi to Delaware more CAPEX 42 Wärtsilä

43 Cargo Owner Move more BBL safely at optimal cost 13.6 knots knots 13.6 knots LNG Advantage +1 voyage higher speed similar unit BBL cost = 316K BBL added lift per vessel! 43 Wärtsilä

44 Ship Owner Retain a fair return capturing risks 13.6 knots knots 13.6 knots Competitive Advantage as LNG higher speed adds 1 voyage keeps LNG adjusted hurdle rate & retain most cargo savings. 44 Wärtsilä

45 Agenda What? Why? How? Application Conclusions Competitive Forces Emission Areas Expansion Owner Choices? 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Gas Technical Viability Integrated Gas Solutions Risk Mitigation Business Case Jones Act Coastwise Tanker Cargo, Owner, Banker Views Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

46 7 January 2014 LNG Fuel SCORECARD 17 Ferries 12 Tankers & Bulkers 6 Offshore Vessels 6 Container Ships 1 Articulated Tug Barge North America s marine LNG fuel launch eclipses Europe! Source: 46 Wärtsilä

47 18 February Vessels total 94mW = North America s largest LNG conversion undertaken! 47 Wärtsilä Source:

48 24 February 2014 MARAD Title 11 Mortgage Loan Guarantee program expands economic criteria to include environmental technology LNG fuel! Title 11: US Government Loan Guarantee term 25 years, 12.5% equity provides Ship Owners US Treasury Borrowing Rates + premium 48 Wärtsilä

49 4 Stakeholders SHIP OWNER PUBLIC CARGO OWNER BANKER 49 Wärtsilä Backstop is the US Government MARAD Guarantee the loan will be repaid!

50 Drivers = Decade Shift to Gas Mandated Emissions & Fuel Restrictions Geographic emissions bubble encapsulates US/Canada Tight sulfur limits stress supply After treatment burdens diesels Source: US EPA web sites, Hatley capture various sources Paradigm shift to gas 1 st on economics 2 nd on emissions Early adopters moving ahead soon early followers! 2015 Fuel Sulfur 1/10% = Stress Mid decade market tipping point 07 April 2014

51 APPENDIX Business Case Details 51 Wärtsilä

52 Financials 52 Wärtsilä

53 Key Values 53 Wärtsilä

54 1 April 2014 Fuel Prices Source: Recent Prices: LS380 1% 699 $/mt LSMGO 0.1% 990 $/mt 54 Wärtsilä

55 Key Values 55 Wärtsilä

56 Fuel Attributes When fuels vary significantly, the historic dollars per ton or gallon is challenging to use because different fuels host widely varying different energy content, density, value Wärtsilä

57 Jones Act Tanker Charter Rates Source: Aker Philadelphia Shipyard, Pareto Oil & Offshore Conference September 4, 2013 presentation visual edits by J Hatley. 57 Wärtsilä

58 WHY? WHY IS RAIL GOING GAS? 58 Wärtsilä

59 Rail 6 Sept 2013 AAR Bob Fronczak, huge environmental & economic benefits associated with going to LNG estimated 25K Locomotives each captures annual savings $200,000 = $5 Billion Potential 59 Wärtsilä

60 CN Natural Gas Locomotives Billions in potential annual fuel savings drives rail progress on LNG tender development for loco power units parallel technology may migrate into Marine ATB! Source: 60 Wärtsilä

61 Agenda What? Why? How? Application Conclusions Competitive Forces Emission Areas Expansion Owner Choices? 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Gas Technical Viability Integrated Gas Solutions Risk Mitigation Business Case Jones Act Coastwise Tanker Cargo, Owner, Banker Views Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data