T-205 John Hatley, Wartsila LNG Fuel Competitive sadvantage & Business Case Returns

Transcription

1 T-205 John Hatley, Wartsila LNG Fuel Competitive sadvantage & Business Case Returns

2 LNG Fuel Competitive Advantage & Business Case Returns Mari-Tech 2015 Changing Tides PNW Hyatt Regency 10 April Vancouver, BC John Hatley PE LNG Initiatives ( MBA, MSE) Americas VP Ship Power Wartsila North America, Inc. Cell john.hatley@wartsila.com 2 Wärtsilä

3 Agenda What? Why? LNG Application Oil Price Shock! Conclusions 3 Pillars LNG Fuel Shale Gas Paradigm Shift ECA Expansion & Vessel Choices 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Business Case Returns Jones Act Coastwise ATB Cargo, Investor, Banker Views Business Case: Robust or Fragile? Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

4 Agenda What? Why? LNG Application Oil Price Shock! Conclusions 3 Pillars LNG Fuel Shale Gas Paradigm Shift ECA Expansion & Vessel Choices 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Business Case Returns Jones Act Coastwise ATB Cargo, Investor, Banker Views Business Case: Robust or Fragile? Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

5 3 Pillars LNG Fuel Vessels ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY ECONOMICS SAFE & RELIABLE Proven LNG systems... reduce risk for yard, owner, & banker... extends LNG value proposition to end customer 22 April 2015

6 Pillar... Environmental Sustainability Natural gas a mixture of hydrocarbon gases associated with petroleum deposits, principally methane. Methane has the highest hydrogen to carbon ratio = lowest CO2. Methane [CH 4 ] Ethane [C 2 H 6 ] Propane [C 3 H 8 ] Butane [C 4 H 10 ] 4:1 (400%) 6:2 (300%) 8:3 (267%) 10:4 (250%) Natural gas lowest MGO carbon 1.86:1 (186%) = cleanest burning fuel

7 How clean? LNG provides significant emission reductions compared to traditional diesel engines CO 2 NO x -25% -85% SO x -99% -99% Emission values [%] Particulates DF Natural Gas Engine Diesel Engine 0

8 Pillar Logic Economics... it! saves money! LNG provides compelling savings Business Cases demonstrate Payback screen short term <5 years... Strong cash flows Higher ROIC & EBITDA Competitive Advantage 22/04/2015

9 How much does LNG cost? Source: Zeus LNG Fuel Seminar, August 31, 2011 Houston; Fleet Operators Perspective: Issues the LNG Industry Must Address, David Moseley, Assist Secretary Washington State DOT The Math LNG x 1.7 = Diesel Gallon Equivalent = $1.05 x 1.7 = $ 1.78 gallon diesel equivalent = savings ( $ $1.78 ) = $ 1.58 per gallon August 2011 LNG captures compelling fuel savings. nearly half cost of diesel

10 How much does LNG cost? June 2014 LNG captures compelling fuel savings. nearly half cost of diesel 10 Wärtsilä

11 Pillar Safe & Reliable Viking Energy 2003 Stril Pioner 2004 Europe s decade LNG experience began offshore North Sea vessels proven path for technology transfer to Americas

12 Global Gas Production USA is world s #1 gas producer US Shale gas production, by itself, exceeds all nations except Russia Source: LNG for Marine Transportation USA, Houston TX, June 12, 2013; David Sweet President Natural Gas Roundtable 22 April 2015

13 Emission Control Areas More Emission Control Areas ECA likely soon 13

14 ECA Vessel Owner Choices 1. Consume compliant Ultra Low Sulfur Distillate expensive champagne fuel 2. Switch to alternative fuel: safe, clean, abundant, affordable, & available natural gas as LNG 3. Alternative Compliance install new technology scrubber CAPEX, OPEX, space, weight, complexity, & operational tradeoffs 4. Abort the Port ECA and SECA mandates force timely choices 22 April 2015

15 Agenda What? Why? LNG Application Oil Price Shock! Conclusions 3 Pillars LNG Fuel Shale Gas Paradigm Shift ECA Expansion & Vessel Choices 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Business Case Returns Jones Act Coastwise ATB Cargo, Investor, Banker Views Business Case: Robust or Fragile? Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

16 Shale Gas Plays Shale. huge reserves natural gas; nearly century supply 16 Wärtsilä

17 Abundant Gas Supply SHALE GAS 10 LOWER 48 ONSHORE CONVENTIONAL TIGHT GAS LOWER 48 OFFSHORE COALBED METHANE ALASKA Paradigm shift to shale gas; now 42% of supply... half 17 Wärtsilä Source:

18 US Shale Gas Production Other US Bakken ND Eagle Ford TX Marcellus PA Haynesville LA 24% CAGR Woodford OK Fayetteville AR Barnett TX Antrim MI, IN 41% CAGR 17% CAGR Shale production surge 2006 frantic 2010 strong

19 Emission Control Area ECA US & Canada ECA bubble encapsulates any flag ships nautical miles low sulfur fuel (equivalence) August 2012 Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands April 2015 Source: US EPA, Designation of North American Emission Control Area to Reduce Emissions from Ships

20 No. Am. ECA Fuel Sulfur Limit Fuel Sulfur 0.10 % limit commences 1 January 2015 Source: /north_american_emission_control_area.asp 20 Wärtsilä

21 5 US Game Changers EPA Engine Emissions US centuries shale gas supply Emissions Control Area 2012 Natural Gas bargain EPA Fuel Standards 5 gas drivers shale supply + bargain prices + 3 EPA mandates = set Investment Clock Source: EIA March 2010 Shale Gas Plays Lower 48 States

22 Agenda What? Why? LNG Application Oil Price Shock! Conclusions 3 Pillars LNG Fuel Shale Gas Paradigm Shift ECA Expansion & Vessel Choices 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Business Case Returns Jones Act Coastwise ATB Cargo, Investor, Banker Views Business Case: Robust or Fragile? Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

23 The Route Corpus Christi to Delaware United States Jones Act Tanker Emission Control Area ECA Bound 3,622 Nautical Mile distance 353 annual operational days with 12 weather days Port stays 3 day/rt

24 ATB Vessel Particulars Medium Range Tanker 50,000 DWT ( 330,000 BBL Capacity ) Speed 13 knots with margin Total propulsion power 11,000 HP ( 8,263 kw ) Manning 21 & SOLAS Compliant Certified Major Class Society 13 annual round trips from New Orleans to Tampa vessel yields competitive low cost delivery economics 24 Wärtsilä

25 4 Stakeholders At fair return capturing risks SHIP OWNER Ultimate Environment Safety PUBLIC CARGO OWNER Transport safely at optimal cost reliably 25 Wärtsilä BANKER Are risks understood & I m repaid!

26 Key Metrics Return on Investment: ROIC, EBITDA, cash flows SHIP OWNER Ultimate Environment Safety PUBLIC CARGO OWNER 26 Wärtsilä All In Charter Freight rate $ / ton BANKER EBIT, Times Burden Cover, cash flows

27 Recall? 27 Wärtsilä

28 Then 5 August 2014 Recent Prices: LS180 1% 636 $/mt LSMGO 0.1% 971 $/mt 28 Wärtsilä Source:

29 Cargo Owner Transport safely at optimal cost reliably Strong cargo unit savings for vessels running on LNG fuel 29 Wärtsilä

30 Cargo Owner Transport safely at optimal cost reliably Shippers save millions choosing LNG fuel $0.9 to $1.3 million over five years per vessel times how many ships? 30 Wärtsilä

31 Ship Owner A fair return capturing risks Compelling fuel payback for vessels running on LNG fuel; an initial investment screening tool 31 Wärtsilä

32 Ship Owner A fair return capturing risks Competitive Advantage; LNG risk adjusted return is highest as OPEX fuel savings preserves highest returns. 32 Wärtsilä

33 Ship Owner A fair return capturing risks Millions $40 $30 EBITDA LNG Fuel $20 $10 $0 HFO + Scrubber MDO Fuel 33 Wärtsilä ($10) LNG fuel has strongest EBITDA + $3.1 Million over HFO+ Scrubber and + $5.3 Million atop MDO. Years

34 Banker Are risks understood & I m repaid! Debt cover is strongest on LNG choice over alternative fuels, banker loan has greater security with LNG. 34 Wärtsilä

35 Banker Are risks understood & I m repaid! Millions $40 EBIT $30 LNG Fuel $20 $10 $0 MDO Fuel HFO + Scrubber Years ($10) LNG has strongest EBIT Depreciation 10 Year MACRS ½ Year Convention Dry docking years 5,10,15,20 35 Wärtsilä

36 Agenda What? Why? LNG Application Oil Price Shock! Conclusions 3 Pillars LNG Fuel Shale Gas Paradigm Shift ECA Expansion & Vessel Choices 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Business Case Returns Jones Act Coastwise ATB Cargo, Investor, Banker Views Business Case: Robust or Fragile? Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

37 Recall Shale Gas 37 Wärtsilä

38 North America Shale Oil Plays US shale crude revolution; reserves exceed 120 billion BBL 22 April 2015 Source: 12/processing/us-refining-outlook-rosier-than.html

39 US Shale Crude Production Source: 58% CAGR 5% CAGR 14% CAGR Shale crude surging 2006 growth strong; 2010 frantic 39 Wärtsilä

40 Brent Crude Oil Prices Source: crude-oilbrent.aspx?timeframe=6m THEN Crude severe price drop since June as abundant supplies face weak demand NOW Case Study 11 Sept 40 Wärtsilä

41 Oil Prices Dropping 26 January 2015 Oil down 60% since June US WTI crude closes at multi - year low caused by oil glut from Strong Supply : US shale boom + Libya restarts large oilfield & Saudi Arabia not reducing supply Soft Demand: China strong but tapering & EU slight recession 41 Wärtsilä Source:

42 Discipline Target US or Russia? Russia suffering double whammy: Oil rich Ukraine and Black Sea burdened by politics under imposed sanctions as oil takes severe price slide 1 December 2014 Ruble plunges down 50% against USD Source: Source: Source: 42 Wärtsilä

43 Now 26 January 2015 Source: 43 Wärtsilä

44 Key Oil Production Cost Profits negative Severe Pain 45 $/BBL 45$/BBL Profits squeezed Manageable Pain 44 Wärtsilä Source:

45 2014 Oil Production Source; ountries_by_oil_production US vaults to 3rd in world crude production end Wärtsilä

46 Government Breakeven Budgets Source: Severe prices under 100$/BBL, present oil glut & soft prices challenge sustainability beyond short run 46 Wärtsilä 45$/BBL

47 What s the impact of the steep fall in oil prices! 47 Wärtsilä

48 Redo Business Case Is Competitive Advantage of LNG Robust or Fragile? What s today s investment returns? 48 Wärtsilä

49 Now 26 January 2015 Source: Prices Now: LS180 1% 430 $/mt LSMGO 0.1% 613 $/mt 49 Wärtsilä

50 Owner At fair return capturing risks of oil fall 26 Jan 2015 LNG competitive advantage remains for cargo shipper but narrows 50 Wärtsilä for investor amidst oil glut and steep price dive.

51 Stress Test ROCE THEN 5 August 2014 LNG 475 $/mt MDO 971 $/mt HFO 636 $/mt NOW 26 January 2015 LNG 431 $/mt MDO 613 $/mt HFO 430 $/mt LNG returns robust despite steep drop in MDO and HFO: oil irrational conditions not sustainable in long run ships last decades! Deviation 51 Wärtsilä

52 Agenda What? Why? LNG Application Oil Price Shock! Conclusions 3 Pillars LNG Fuel Shale Gas Paradigm Shift ECA Expansion & Vessel Choices 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Business Case Returns Jones Act Coastwise ATB Cargo, Investor, Banker Views Business Case: Robust or Fragile? Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data

53 7 January 2014 LNG Fuel SCORECARD 17 Ferries 12 Tankers & Bulkers 6 Offshore Vessels 6 Container Ships 1 Articulated Tug Barge North America s marine LNG fuel launch eclipses Europe! Source: 53 Wärtsilä

54 14 February 2014 Source: 3 LNG players pursue Jacksonville: Pivotal LNG + WesPac Midstream, Clean Energy, and SEMPRA US Power & Gas 22 April 2015

55 14 February 2014 Harvey Gulf Port Fourchon LNG fueling facility operational 2015 Source: 55 Wärtsilä.

56 18 February Vessels total 94mW = North America s largest LNG conversion undertaken! 56 Wärtsilä Source:

57 24 February 2014 MARAD Title 11 program expands economic criteria to include environmental technology LNG fuel! Title 11: US Government Loan Guarantee term 25 years, 12.5% equity provides Ship Owners US Treasury Borrowing Rates + premium 57 Wärtsilä

58 25 February st LNG fuel containerships commence NASSCO Source: 58 Wärtsilä

59 11 March 2014 LNG bunker barge designs moving industry forward Source: 59 Wärtsilä

60 16 April 2014 Americas industrial base expanding supply of key LNG enablers Source: 60 Wärtsilä

61 17 April 2014 Source: Safe, clean, low cost LNG fuel from US shipments may lower power costs 22 April 2015

62 16 June 2014 American Petroleum Tankers APT orders another LNG ready tanker from NASSCO Source: 62 Wärtsilä.

63 25 June 2014 Crowley and TOTE filing for MARAD Title 11 Loan Finance Guarantees Source: 63 Wärtsilä

64 3 July 2014 Now 6 LNG fuel ferries for Canada as BC Ferries (3) follows STQ 64 Wärtsilä Source:

65 15 July 2014 Prohibitively expensive compliant diesel inside ECA in 2015! More Traditional Pain = More LNG Gain 65 Wärtsilä Source:

66 19 November 2014 Source: Now 8 LNG fuel ferries for Canada 66 Wärtsilä

67 1 December 2014 Source: 67 Wärtsilä

68 2 December 2014 Source: River towboats 100% ECA bound consider LNG fuel. 68 Wärtsilä

69 6 February 2015 Source: Historic 1 st LNG fuel bunkering North America 69 Wärtsilä

70 6 February 2015 Martin Midstream Partners cryogenic truck loading LNG fuel to Harvey Energy at Pascagoula Mississippi Source: Courtesy Harvey Gulf International Inc. 70 Wärtsilä

71 9 February 2015 Source: 6,500 m3 Bunker Vessel for Rotterdam 71 Wärtsilä

72 5 March 2015 Source: Maritime History: 1 st Offshore LNG fuel Vessel for North America enters service 72 Wärtsilä

73 Drivers = Decade Shift to Gas Mandated Emissions & Fuel Restrictions Geographic emissions bubble encapsulates US/Canada Tight sulfur limits stress supply After treatment burdens diesels Source: US EPA web sites, Hatley capture various sources Paradigm shift to gas 1 st on economics 2 nd on emissions Early adopters moving ahead soon early followers! 2015 Fuel Sulfur 1/10% = Stress Mid decade market tipping point 22 April 2015

74 APPENDIX Business Case Details 74 Wärtsilä

75 Financials 75 Wärtsilä

76 Key Values 76 Wärtsilä

77 Key Values 77 Wärtsilä

78 Fuel Attributes Utilize fuels specific for regional case... As fuels widely vary, the historic dollars per ton or gallon is challenging to use as differing fuels host widely varying energy content, density, value... These values shown are generally representative. 78 Wärtsilä

79 Agenda What? Why? LNG Application Oil Price Shock! Conclusions 3 Pillars LNG Fuel Shale Gas Paradigm Shift ECA Expansion & Vessel Choices 5 Drivers Set Investment Clock Business Case Returns Jones Act Coastwise ATB Cargo, Investor, Banker Views Business Case: Robust or Fragile? Recent Market Signals The Future Decade for Gas Appendix Data