Oil & Gas Industry Recent Developments

Transcription

1 Oil & Gas Industry Recent Developments By Dr. Hilmar R. Zeissig Houston International Business Corp. For RIAS BERLIN COMMISSION U.S. Energy Program in Texas Houston, Texas, April 27, 2015

2 Typical Downstream Petroleum Supply Chain

3 Differences between Upstream and Downstream Petroleum Upstream petroleum (exploration & production) is a high risk business with big budgets and a romance factor Downstream petroleum (refining & distribution) is a commodity business, same as supply of car tires or computer batteries. Upstream employs highly trained geologists, geophysicists, petroleum engineers, specialized economists, accountants, IT technicians etc. Downstream, except refining, just needs traders, maintenance technicians, truck driver and cashiers. Upstream requires long-term, large investments, economies of scale, diversification and distribution of risks. Downstream investment can be limited to a few installations and operations with targeted investment and normal operating expense. Upstream has the potential of enormous windfall profits if successful. Downstream has limited profit margins as any trading business.

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6 Petroleum Products Characteristics and Typical Use Crude Oil First refinery in 1861 There are other products and byproducts from refining. Natural Gas No refining Distributed by urban pipeline or as compressed or liquefied natural gas (LNG & CNG).

7 History of Texas Oil & Gas Industry Explorers landing in Texas in 1543 used asphalt floating on rivers to caulk their ships. Mineral Rights to oil, gas, water and other minerals are private property and NOT government owned. First producing oil well in Nacogdoches in 1866 supplied lamp oil. World s largest oil field, Spindletop near Houston, discovered In Texaco and Gulf Oil Corporation formed in Houston Ship Channel opened in 1914 attracting refineries and tank farms. In the 1940s Texas dominated world petroleum markets like OPEC today. In 1950 Zapata Oil Co. founded by George H. W. Bush and Liedtke brothers. 1919

8 It s all about $$$$$ More than 1/2 of all US land rigs are drilling in Texas Texas produced 18% of US oil from 155,654 wells and 27% of US gas from 91,757 gas wells (2013) jobs related to oil & gas, but only 4% of total work force. Houston has 13% of US refinery capacity and 45% of US petrochemical capacity, making it the largest petrochemical manufacturing center in the world. Economy of Houston and Texas very big and diversified, therefore, low oil prices have less impact than in other producing states.

9 World Petroleum Market

10 World Energy Consumption Oil Production

11 Local and Geopolitical Aspects Local end-user prices of petroleum products are effected by: Market size, economies of scale and cost of transportation Different levels of various taxes by central and local governments Degree of competition or protection for domestic suppliers Efficient monitoring and enforcement of legal framework Transparence/disclosure of end-user prices and other industry data Impact of recent increase of US domestic production: US oil production of 9.5 mbpd highest since 1970 US importing 32% less oil than in % less imports from Saudi Arabia than in x more oil imported from Canada than from Saudi Arabia Much less political leverage by Saudi and OPEC Example: Iran-US nuclear deal impossible a few years ago

12 Natural Gas Prices U.S. gas market split between NYMEX financial (futures) market at the Henry hub in Louisiana, physical market price paid for actual sales at individual delivery points in the U.S. European prices are oil-indexed, reset 6-9 months imports from Russia, Norway, and Netherlands over 80% pegged to fuel oil. imports from Algeria linked 70% to basket of oil products.

13 Natural Gas Processing

14 Natural Gas for Transportation CNG Station USA: 602 public access CNG filling stations and 633 private access stations. CNG and LNG public access stations expanding rapidly. By 2015 federal and many state agencies shall purchase NGVs. In 2014 railroad CSX will be testing trains running on LNG or diesel. CNG delivered by pipeline, LNG by tanker trucks. Modern NGVs can run on CNG/LPG or gasoline. Higher upfront cost of Natural Gas Vehicles (NGV). 1 gal CNG is $2.00 cheaper than diesel, LNG is $1.00 cheaper. Tax incentive and rebates for NGV in many states. LNG Station

15 Hydraulic Fracturing of a Horizontal Gas Well

16 Contrary to environmentalists assertations: Ground water reservoirs are shallow, protected from the much deeper oil/gas reservoirs by impenetrable formations. They are not contaminated by fracking, but by bad cementing and other operational mistakes in the vertical bore hole.

17 Fracking Regulation Fracking has been done for more than 50 years. I personally was responsible for fracking deep gas wells in South Texas When the shale boom started local municipalities, mainly at the US East coast, prohibited it without any technical evaluation. Environmental Protection Agency did intensive studies, does not oppose fracking, but requires strict safety rules. States like Texas have had those rules for a long time. Chemicals used for fracking (0.45% only) need to be revealed to special website FracFocus. Germany issued new rules which practically prohibit fracking, obviously for political reasons and not based on sound technical data. Recently the EU announced that fracking should be allowed under adequate safety rules which is a reasonable decision. Governor of New York prohibited fracking and basically all oil & gas drilling in Nov while his experts found the respective studies inconclusive. Voters in Denton County, Texas prohibited fracking not because of safety reasons, but because of the oil boom s impact on their lives. Now debated in Legislature. In March 2015 US Dept. of Interior issued new rules for Federal lands (10% of total): - companies to submit detailed information about wells, including faults, fractures, volume of fluid to be used and chemical components; - boreholes to be reinforced to prevent water leakage.

18 Keystone XL Pipeline from Canada s oil sand production to Texas refineries 3,456 km long mio bbl/d capacity cost: US$7 billion Planned since 2005, approved by Canada authorities in 2010 Construction in phases by TransCanada et al 2010 US rejects application; positive EIA published in 2011 Jan Nebraska Supreme Court clears construction US Congress approves by law Jan. 2015, but vetoed by Obama Arguments pro: US energy security, less imported oil, many new jobs and expansion of refining industry Arguments contra: Risk of oil spills, higher greenhouse gas emissions from oil sands compared to conventional oil ALTERNATIVE: Continued transport by railways, all owned by BNSF (Warren Buffet, major donor for democrats) Cost: 30 $/bbl on rail - 10 $/bbl by pipeline Historically risk of spills by rail much higher than pipeline Canada could export to other countries by pipeline to Pacific

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