The Vietnamese Real Estate Market (in minutes)

Transcription

1 The Vietnamese Real Estate Market (in minutes) What is really happening? Presented by: ADAM BURY Senior Manager, Research & Consulting CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. Wednesday 21 st March, 2012

2 What the press are saying. 2 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

3 What we are actually seeing. 2012: The real estate market is alive and kicking just! Inflation slowing and economy beginning to stabilise; Property market is continuing to reform; Developers and investors assessing their positions; Some development continue to move forward (slowly), some remain frozen; The residential market appears lukewarm (not frozen!); But, foreign and domestic investor interest remains and deals are happening: Commercial leasing market sees renewed activity as landlords become more proactive; Residential leasing market grows increasingly open; 3 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

4 VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2011 CPI (%y-o-y) / Interest rates(%) Q4 Q4 & 2011 PERFORMANCE 2011p GDP (% y-o-y) 6.1% 5.9% December CPI (% y-o-y) N/A 18.16% Exchange rate (e-o-p) 20,828 20,828 Export (US$ Bn) (31.7% y-o-y) 96.3 (33.3% y-o-y) Import (US$ Bn) 28.9 (23.4% y-o-y) (24.7% y-o-y) FDI Implemented (US$ Bn) 2.8 (-5.1% y-o-y) 11 (0% y-o-y) International Arrivals (million arrivals) Retail and Services Turnover Source: General Statistics Office (trillion dong) Inflation surged Monetary controls on interest rates Monetary controls took effect 0 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 CPI, VN (% y-o-y)) CPI, VN (% m-o-m) Refinancing rate (%) Rediscounting rate (%) 1.7 (29.3% y-o-y) 6.0 (19.1% y-o-y) (47.2% y-o-y) 2,004 (24.2% y-o-y) 4 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH CPI (% m-o-m)

5 VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW GDP (% y-o-y) CPI (% y-o-y) Vietnam Hong Kong Thailand Singapor e China Malaysia Indonesi a CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

6 OFFICE Q4/2011 SNAPSHOT * All rents are quoted on GFA, exclusive of VAT and service charges. Source: CBRE Vietnam 6 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

7 OFFICE GRADE A, Q4/2011 High vacancy at two notable projects put downwards pressure on Grade A rents; Seven more mature buildings still over 95% occupied and have been able to maintain rental rates at, or slightly higher, than market average; Attractive Grade A rents have placed pressure on Grade B and Grade C rents; Some of the most attractive deals have already been done in Q4 2011/Q and landlords may be less flexible through the coming year; 7 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

8 OFFICE Grade A: New Supply in the Year Ahead. Net Leasable Area (sm) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 (5,000) Grade A Absorption The nine properties listed as Grade A approximately 57,000sm of available space; The vast majority of which is at two buildings one of which is rapidly filling; Project delays mean that previous assumptions as to new Grade A supply in 2012 are being revised downwards; In the short-term the market is stronger than some are suggesting; 8 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

9 OFFICE What about Grade B? If Grade A is not for you District s 1 and 3 do not come cheap; Grade B rents in District s 1 and 3 are on average US$4 5psm higher than other properties; Vacancy trending down at Grade B properties in D1 and D3 whilst trending up in suburban areas; 9 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

10 RESIDENTIAL FOR SALE Q4/2011 SNAPSHOT LUXURY HIGH-END MID-END AFFORDABLE TOTAL Totalsupply (units) ,548 13,042 14,213 43,220 Newcompletion(units) ,918 3,165 Newlaunch (units) ,096 Primarymarket - Averageasking price (US$psm) $4,183 $1,628 $920 $663 Q-o-qchange (%) -9.1% -1.6% -3.2% -1.3% Secondarymarket - Averageasking price (US$psm) $4,136 $1,803 $910 $722 Q-o-qchange (%) -2.2% -1.5% -3.9% -0.6% Y-o-ychange (%) -6.0% -4.4% -7.5% -0.7% Note: *: Launched by Saigon Mekong; **: Officially launched All prices are quoted exclusive of VAT and service charges. Existing supply : is the total number of units that have been handed over for occupation. New completion : the total number of units that were handed over for occupation in the review quarter these are added to existing supply. New launch : the number of units that were released to the market by developers (official start of sales for a project) in the review quarter. All units in each development are included in the calculations, however, the developer may divide sales into numerous phases and thus not all units may come online at launch date. Source: CBRE Vietnam 10 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

11 RESIDENTIAL FOR SALE The Story Behind the Numbers Some asking prices openly slashed in an attempt to generate interest as some initially thought this did not lead to widespread markets drops; Whilst the face prices have not dropped, notably discounts are available in negotiation 20%+; Nevertheless, sales and new launches dry up; Interest rates for mortgage lending still unsustainable 18% or more; Construction go slows at many projects in some cases construction has seized; Fear has gripped..but not everywhere; Some projects, with small unit sizing and very affordable pricing, have sold well; 11 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

12 RESIDENTIAL FOR SALE Take- up vs. Hangover HCMC - Today Take-Up Rate (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Unsold Units by Segment 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Unsold Units Accumulated (Units) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Total 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Total Unsold Units Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Bangkok Today, but a hangover from the Asian Financial Crisis in CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

13 RESIDENTIAL FOR SALE AFFORDABILITY(Something to think about for the year ahead) Social Grouping % of Total Households Annual Income (US$) Annual Saving (US$) An Affordable Condo ($42,000) A Mid-end Condo ($72,000) YEARS TO AFFORD A High-end Condo ($135,000) A Luxury Condo ($342,000) A Villa ($350,000) A Townhouse ($90,000) A2 1% 22,845 4, A1 10% 11,423 2, A 9% 7,996 1, B 47% 7,425 1, C 21% 2, D 9% 1, ,051 1, E 3% 1, ,261 1, F 1% ,244 3,152 3, Data Sources: TNS, Neilson and CBRE Figures consider the major cities of HCMC and Hanoi; Assumes that 19% of household income is saved; Generalised, as assumes no mortgages and no family contributions/unregistered income though majority of purchases are still without a mortgage; 13 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

14 RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE Others pain may be your gain RENTING! Landlords are in pain some are leveraged, some never wanted to be landlords; There is notable supply in District 2 and 7 and more to come in the year ahead; Bargain hard! 14 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

15 SUMMARY THE SEVEN TAKE HOMES The real estate market is not dead it is going through a much needed correction and re-alignment; Prime Grade A rents have softened - we are likely nearing a short-term bottom; Grade A space, particularly for large tenants is limited; To be located in District s 1 or 3, be willing to pay the premium; Residential sector to sees limited sales trough out the year as the market continues to be gripped by fear no recovery until interests rates reduce and a consensus is reached on the bottom of the market; Extreme care needed to ensure that Bangkok-like residential skeletons are not created;; Renters rejoice; 15 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012

16 Thank You For Listening For full information please consider our QUARTERLY REPORT available on subscription CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CB Richard Ellis clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CB Richard Ellis. 16 CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTING THE VIETNAMESE REAL ESTATE MARKET (IN MINUTES) MARCH 2012