Market in Minutes Germany office markets Q2 2016

Transcription

1 Savills World Research Germany offices Market in Minutes Germany office markets 216 The facts at a glance Office space is becoming scarce, driving rents higher In the major German office markets, office space is becoming a rare commodity. Availability across the top six office markets at the end of the first half year totalled 4.6 million, which is around % less than in the previous quarter. The vacancy rate declined by 3 basis points over the last three months to 6. (Table 1). We expect the vacancy rate to fall below the mark by the end of the year (Graph 2). This is partly explained by the sustained high demand for office space owing to the healthy economic climate and associated company formations and expansions. rose by a further 11% year on year to around 1.6 million. Another reason is that new-build activity remains relatively modest. Only.9 million of new office space will come to the market in 216, which is insufficient, particularly since three quarters of this new-build space is already pre-let (Graph ). From an occupier s perspective and to avoid jeopardising further growth, more new office space is required going forward. This is dependent on planning departments who, when faced with the conflicting priorities of creating housing and designating space for commercial use, currently tend to favour the former. One consequence of the current supply shortage are rising rents. The prime rent rose by 3% year on year to 28.7 per /month and this trend is set to continue (Graph 6). savills.de/research 1

2 216 Top six office markets at a glance By year-end, vacancy rate will fall below threshold of TABLE 1 Key office market figures () Vacancy rate (%) Prime rent () Average rent () H1 16 against H against against against against 16 Berlin 4, ,7-4.1% 3.2-3bps.9 +.7% % Düsseldorf 162, ,4-7.1% 9.4-3bps 26. +/-.% % Frankfurt 211,3 +.9% 416, bps 38. +/-.% Hamburg 238, -4.1% 3,8 -.3%.4 +/-bps. +/-.% /-.% Cologne 27, +64.7% 31, % 6.1-4bps % Munich 372, , bps % % Top 6 1,642, % 3,41,2 +1.1% 6.2-3bps GRAPH 1 in the top 6 1., quarterly (left axis), past 12 months rolling (right axis). GRAPH 2 3 Prime rent - Ø Top 6 (left axis) Average rent - Ø Top 6 (left axis) Vacancy rate - Ø Top 6 (right axis) % million million * * % GRAPH 3 per transaction past 12 months Berlin 1,6 1,2 past years GRAPH 4 Share of take-up in central submarkets* 1% 9% central submarkets remaining submarkets Munich 8 4 Düsseldorf 7% 8% 77% 73% 71% 7% 7% % Cologne Frankfurt 3% 1% 1% 23% 27% 29% % % Hamburg % H1 / * central submarket of each Top 6 market (Berlin: City East and City West) savills.de/research 2

3 216 Top six office markets at a glance Positive prime rent development to be continued Highest increase expected in Berlin GRAPH 1,4, 1,2, GRAPH 6 Development of prime rents Range 26- Average Current In 6 months 1,, , 6, 4, , 769, 1,273,6 1,29,3 914,1 689,6 88,7 1,3,6 886,8 897,738 97,761 1,167, Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Cologne Munich TABLE 2 The largest letting transactions in 216 at a glance* Location Tenant Office space () Cologne Zurich Gruppe Deutschland approx. 6, Munich Bundesanstalt für Immobilienaufgaben approx. 1,2 Munich Landeshauptstadt München approx. 14,9 Berlin Einstein Stiftung Berlin approx. 11,1 Hamburg AXA Colonia Versicherung approx. 9,8 Düsseldorf Douglas approx. 8,6 Frankfurt Union Investment Real Estate approx. 8, Berlin Bundesanstalt für Immobilienaufgaben approx. 7,9 Munich Westwing Home & Living approx. 6, Berlin Berliner Verlag approx.,6 / * only published transactions are shown savills.de/research 3

4 216 Berlin Construction volume on five-year-low Prime rent rises to.9 per /month GRAPH 7 GRAPH 8 3, quarterly (left axis), past 12 months rolling (right axis) 1,2 3 1, 1% , , * * % GRAPH 9 by submarket* Potsdamer Platz / Leipziger Platz % City West % GRAPH 1 3, 3,, East/North/ South/West 21% City outskirts 4 2, 1, 1, East/North/Sout h/west 23% / * past 12 months, 123, 18, 14, 176,3 13,1 189,7 174,6 293,2 18,1 2,8 177, Berlin market in minutes Office space is becoming increasingly scarce - vacancy rate to fall below 3% The vacancy rate at the end of the first half year stood at 3., which is a new record low. This was due, on the one hand, to a net absorption of more than 19,. On the other hand, the new-build volume of 18,1 sq m was the lowest level since 212. Speculative developments remain very scarce as banks continue to be relatively restrictive in their lending practices. However, there are isolated examples of market participants with private capital embarking on speculative developments such as the Feratti Offices and Palais Holler. Owing to the high demand, vacancies are expected to decrease further in the second half of the year, driving the vacancy rate below 3%. Availability in sought-after locations is so low that, in some cases, potential tenants are being subjected to an application process with the landlord, which must include their rental bid. Consequently, rents have risen significantly further. The prime rent rose by.7% compared with the previous quarter to.9 per /month, while the average rent gained 3.3% to reach 1.6 per /month. savills.de/research 4

5 216 Düsseldorf Medienhafen, Seestern and Grafenberg are benefiting from supply shortage in city centre GRAPH 11 GRAPH 12 2, quarterly (left axis), past 12 months rolling (right axis) % 1, , * * % GRAPH 13 by submarket* GRAPH 14 Harbour 2, 2, other submarkets 1, Seestern 1 1, City North 7% City centre Düsseldorf North / Airport 9%, 1,8 16,3 18, 7, 114, 12,6 12,4 69,1 1, 11, 19, / * past 12 months Düsseldorf market in minutes shows modest decline despite high demand Despite the modest decline in office take-up (- compared with H1-1) and the deferral of some large requirements, demand in Düsseldorf s office lettings market remains high. However, many occupiers are ultimately opting to extend their current leases rather than moving. There were also a number of companies, such as Douglas, re-locating to the city in the first half of the year. The continued supply shortage in the city centre is particularly benefiting peripheral submarkets. In addition to Medienhafen and Seestern, the Grafenberger Allee submarket has particularly benefited over the last six months, not least since the area is now well connected to the city centre following the completion of the Wehrhahnlinie underground railway line as well as offering attractive and modern space at rents of around 12 per /month. Around 16,7 has been let in the Grafenberger Allee submarket since the start of the year (1% of take up in the first half year), which is already more than in the whole of last year. savills.de/research

6 216 Frankfurt Will the Frankfurt market be a benefitor of Great Britains brexit decision? GRAPH 1 GRAPH 16 1, quarterly (left axis), past 12 months rolling (right axis) , , % * * % GRAPH 17 by submarket* GRAPH 18 4, other submarkets 27% Banking district / City 3 3, 3,, 2, 1, Westend 1, Frankfurt South Frankfurt West 9% Eschborn 1%, 37, 232,7 347, 241,8 82, 164, 293, 119,2 114,836 94, , / * past 12 months Frankfurt market in minutes Numerous requirements promise higher take-up in the second half year The Frankfurt office market was characterised by high demand which was not only restricted to the 3, to 1, segment during the first half of the year. The large requirements - typical of Frankfurt in previous years - are also currently back in the market. Although only a small proportion of requirements have translated into contracts to date, take-up in H1-16 rose by 2 year on year to 211,. It remains to be seen to what extent Frankfurt can profit from the Brexit decision in Great Britain. Germany s financial centre certainly has sufficient space in reserve to accommodate a large pipeline of new tenants. Vacancies currently total around 1.1 million, although only of this has a sufficiently modern standard of fit-out. The projected completion volume for 216 and 217 stands at around 2, but some two thirds of this is already pre-let. savills.de/research 6

7 216 Hamburg Rental level continues to increase slightly declines by GRAPH 19 GRAPH 2 2, quarterly (left axis), past 12 months rolling (right axis) 6 3 1% , , * * % GRAPH 21 by submarket* GRAPH 22 other submarkets % City 29% 3, 3,, 2, Outer Alsterlage 7% 1, 1, Altona 9% Bahrenfeld 11% City South 19%, 189, 262,2 3, 196, 1, 171, 16, 12, 17, 18, 1, / * past 12 months Hamburg market in minutes Supply shortage is stifling take-up The Hamburg office market is currently defined by a significant supply shortage. Significantly more than half of the 17, of new office space that will come to the market this year is already let. This shortage of space is also reflected in a modest decline in take-up, which fell by 4.1% year on year to 238,. Consequently, there has been a modest increase in rental levels. The prime and average rent rose by 2.% and.7% respectively to stand at. per /month and 14.6 per /month. Since new-build volumes will be clearly incapable of keeping pace with the high demand, even over the coming years, it appears essential to consider how the required amount of office space can be provided going forward. With development potential in central office locations almost exhausted, one possibility would be to give greater consideration to other submarkets. Potential examples include Bahrenfeld or locations east of the Alster, where there are some remaining development reserves. Another possibility would be to build higher in the traditional office locations, which would require more adventurous policy from the city s planning department. savills.de/research 7

8 216 Cologne Average rent increases by 1% due to acquisition of Zurich insurance GRAPH 23 GRAPH 24 16, quarterly (left axis), past 12 months rolling (right axis) % , , * * % GRAPH by submarket* GRAPH 26 other submarkets 17% City 29%, 2, Porz / Airport 1, 1, Kalk / Mülheim, Ehrenfeld / Braunsfeld 13% Deutz 21% 98,2 216,6 74,3 49, 83, 63,4 79,1 79,3 114,82 132, , / * past 12 months Cologne market in minutes Availability in the city centre and mid-price segment is scarce Large acquisitions of additional space by public sector bodies, such as the letting of approximately 13, to the City of Cologne s facility management division, contributed to a high absorption of space. As a result, the supply shortage in the Cologne office market is becoming ever more acute. There is scarcely any available space in the city centre or in the mid-price segment between 12 and 1 per /month. The other side of the Rhine is a particular beneficiary of the supply shortage in the city centre. The Kalk/Mülheim submarket, for example, witnessed take-up of more than 23, in the first half of the year. The letting of 6, to Zurich Group Germany in Messe City has also brought the Deutz submarket into the spotlight. Deutz has further development potential of 12,. Large requirements can now only be satisfied either here or in other submarkets on the right bank of the Rhine in developments with the right lead time. On the left bank of the Rhine and particularly in the city centre, there is barely any further potential for major developments, not least owing to the piecemeal ownership structure. savills.de/research 8

9 216 Munich Tenants are shifting to the edge of the city and to surrounding municipalities GRAPH 27 GRAPH 28, quarterly (left axis), past 12 months rolling (right axis) 1, 1% 4 9% % 1, , % 3% * * 1% % GRAPH 29 by submarket* GRAPH 3 Outskirts North 17% 3,, other submarkets 3 2, City West 1 1, 1, Outskirts South City 11% Outskirts East, 221, 216,3 28, 17, 13, 1, 18, 26, 24, 16, 1, / * past 12 months Munich market in minutes Vacancy rate falls further and is approaching the mark Companies seeking new office space in the Munich office market, particularly in the size segment above 3, sq m, are under increasing pressure to act. Availability decreased even further compared with the first quarter with the vacancy rate now standing at 4.1%. Faced with a paucity of alternatives, many companies are now tending to extend their existing leases. Rather than extending their leases, however, some companies are re-locating to peripheral submarkets or surrounding municipalities. Unterschleißheim, Haar and areas along S-Bahn line 8 towards the airport, for example, are high on occupiers agendas. As a result of the prevailing confluence of factors, rents have risen significantly. The prime rent has risen by 1.% over the last twelve months to 34. per /month, while the average rent has increased by 4.% to 16.3 per /month. savills.de/research 9

10 216 Savills Germany Savills is present in Germany with around 2 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. Today Savills provides expertise and market transparency to its clients in the following areas of activity: D HH B Our services»» Purchase and sale of single assets and portfolios»» Corporate Finance - Valuation»» Leasing of office and retail buildings»» Leasing and sale of industrial and warehouse properties»» Landlord and Occupier Services C F S M Savills Germany Please contact us for further information Marcus Mornhart Office Agency Germany +49 () mmornhart@savills.de Christian Leska Office Agency Berlin +49 () cleska@savills.de Jan-Niklas Schroers Office Agency Düsseldorf +49 () jnschroers@savills.de Benjamin Remy Office Agency Frankfurt +49 () bremy@savills.de Ken Hoppe Office Agency Hamburg +49 () khoppe@savills.de Simon Löseke Office Agency Cologne +49 () sloeseke@savills.de Nico Jungnickel Office Agency Munich +49 () njungnickel@savills.de Matthias Pink Research +49 () mpink@savills.de Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company, established in 18, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows and now has over 7 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East with more than 3, employees worldwide. Savills is present in Germany with around 2 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. This bulletin is for general informative purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The bulletin is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. Savills July 216 savills.de/research 1