Union Investment Institutional Property GmbH Dr. Christoph Schumacher Managing Director. How and where to invest in Germany the asset manager s view

Transcription

1 Union Investment Institutional Property GmbH Dr. Christoph Schumacher Managing Director How and where to invest in Germany the asset manager s view Tel Aviv, 15 June 2015

2 Who is Union Investment? 2 A few Facts: Established in 1965 Germany s largest manager EUR 25.4bn RE 13,100 banks investments in 18 real of real estate funds estate funds 376 real estate assets 30m clients and property companies HQ in Hamburg 270+ staff under the TOP 16 world wide Group AuM EUR 252bn Market share 13% in institutional fund business in Germany 800,000+ investors with 17m Embedded in the members cooperative finance sector Source: Union Investment as of

3 Who is Union Investment? 3 One of the largest real estate asset managers in Europe Real Estate Holdings per Country* (EUR bn) 376 properties worth EUR 25.4bn More than 270 staff Offices in Hamburg, Madrid, Paris, New York & Singapore 0,1 0,44 2,46 0,35 0,07 1,33 0,39 2,52 0,9 0,8 11,3 0,54 0,96 0,5 0,330,72 0,07 0,31 Europa 0,49 0,2 0,11 0,5 0,03 Source: Union Investment as of * Illustration related to all real estate funds, retail and institutional, of Union Investment ** AuM of investments in real estate, infrastructure and alternative investments, liquidity included

4 The current investment market You are not alone: German Institutional investors significantly increase their real estate allocation in Germany 4 20,0 % 18,0 16,0 14,0 15,5 18,4 100% 90% 80% 70% 12,0 10,0 8,8 8,7 10,7 10,4 60% 50% 8,0 6,0 4,0 7,3 6,0 5,0 4,2 40% 30% 20% 2,0 10% 0,0 Total Insurance companies Banks and savings banks Pension funds Churches and foundations 0% Total Insurance companies Banks and savings banks Pension funds Churches and foundations Reduction No change Increase Low-interest rate environment is causing a significantly higher demand in alternative investment classes. So far, insurance companies have increased their real estate investments by 45% compared to The return requirements by pension funds will ensure a further increase of the allocation until Source: Feri, Union Investment

5 Bn The current investment market and foreign investors are once again looking heavily into Germany, too ,9 Transaction volume commercial real estate 12,7 12,8 20,0 51,5 57,5 19,7 10,5 Total Germany Top 5* Highest Return** Office (%) 10 year rate (%) 19,1 22,6 25,2 30,4 25,4 35,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 % Proportion of foreign investors in real estate transaction volume (commercial) in Germany in % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Significant increase in transaction volume of commercial real estate since Proportion of foreign investors decreased to under 10% in 2009 and since then increasing constantly. In 2014 every second investor was of foreign origin. Source: CBRE, JLL, as of January 31 st 2014

6 Where to invest Increasing interest in markets like logistics/industrial, hotel/leisure, but office and retail stay important Investment volume by type Growth of investment volume in Germany Q % 7% 11% 46% Office Retail Mixed use 109,9% 27% Logistics/Industrial Leisure/Special Purpose Properties 73,5% % 11% 7% 24% 45% Office Retail Mixed use Logistics/Industrial Leisure/Special Purpose Properties 34,0% 35,5% 20,8% 19,2% Commercial Hotel Logistics Office Retail Residential Institutional investors have already expressed interest in niche markets beyond office, retail and residential. New user groups (i.e. start-ups) ask for different locations and floor space concepts. Source: German investment market overview 3rd quarter 2014; investment market commercial real estate 2014, CBRE; trend barometer real estate investment market 2015, EY

7 Where to invest Rental growth pattern by the seven largest German cities Nominal growth in % pa 7 Prime rents Munich Frankfurt Dusseldorf Berlin Cologne Hamburg Stuttgart end end Source: PMA, Europe Investment Forecasts Spring 2015 As at April 2015

8 Where to invest Trading is changing: the trend in retail is E-commerce 8 Classical store concepts belong to the past. E-commerce puts the stationary retail under pressure. 8% 2% 11% 0% 47% I agree I mainly agree I don't really agree 40% I agree I mainly agree I don't really agree 43% I don't agree I don't agree 49% The classical food retail market will change as well: in 2020 every tenth Euro will be spent online. However there is an increasing demand for retail space by online retailer to strengthen branding. Source: Trend barometer real estate investment market 2015, EY; cross channel revolution in food retail 2014, EY

9 Where to invest Logistics properties are becoming more important in addition to office and retail properties 9 Market value of commercial real estate in Germany in billion Euro in the first half of 2014 Category within commercial properties Area in millions of sqm Total value Thereof investment compatible first half of 2014 in % in billion Euro in % in billion Euro in % 600 Transformation properties 93 Industrial properties Commercial space in smaller objects Office properties Retail properties 476 Transformation properties Industrial properties Production properties Warehousing/logistic properties All commercial properties The market value of transformation properties amounts to 543 billion Euro (26%) and is just below the value of office properties which is the largest asset class with an amount of 600 billion Euro (29%) was an outstanding year for logistic and industrial properties in Germany: 3.6 billion Euro (2013: 2.23 billion Euro) have been invested in this asset class and the trend is continuing. Analyses assume that the commercial ownership rate is currently at 75% in Germany while it is only between 20% and 30% in Asia and North America. Source: bulwiengesa

10 Single asset sale Portfolio sale Special fund Real estate - AG/REIT (IPO) Public fund Closed-ended fund No exit Number of funds Total GAV (in bn) How to invest Almost 60 billion Euros of funds will be liquidated in the next years! Extension Other/not shown/unknown No decision taken In liquidation / is being liquidated In extension (<2014) / Is being extended (>2014) GAV Planned exit strategies INREV shows that from the originally planned funds liquidations from 2009 to 2015 almost 60 billion Euros will be liquidated within the next years. Investors are willing to make decisions (2014: 78% of the investors have a liquidation strategy (2010: 22%)). Preferred liquidation: single asset sale or portfolio transaction (EY). Source: INREV, EY 2015, Union Investment

11 How to invest Another source: The German Open Ended Funds is dead, long live the German Open Ended Funds! 11 Be liquidated Assets in millions of Euro Liquidation by SEB ImmoInvest 3, CS EUROREAL A 3, KanAm grundinvest Fonds 2, SEB ImmoPortfolio Target Return KanAm SPEZIAL grundinvest CS PROPERTY DYNAMIC UBS (D) 3 Sector Real Estate SEB Global Property Fund AXA Immosolutions DEGI GERMAN BUSINESS other real estate funds** 1,494 Sum 13,758 % of retail funds 17% Year Value in millions of Euro Net fund flow in millions of Euro 2012* 83, , * 81, , * 80, Sum 6, % of the German Open Ended Funds will be liquidated within the next 3 years. Nevertheless several funds launches have been taken place in the last few years (DA&WM, UI). The German Open Ended Funds has a high importance especially for smaller investors. Source: BVI 2015 * Numbers on of the respective year/ ** Funds at the depository location

12 How to invest Club deals could be of strong interest for foreign investors 12 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 26,0% 65,0% 39,4% 47,4% 36,6% Important reasons for club deal investments: No blind pool investment High opportunity to influence for each investor The investors are already known to each other when starting the club deal Investor tailored products 0% High demand for club deals since years; especially for large institutional investors. Due to disappointments with managers and co-investors, investors are seaking for more control. Due to the lack of products and the current price level for large investments club deals slightly become less attractive for investors. Source: Investment Intention Survey 2014, INREV

13 How to invest Joint Ventures/Partnerships/funds investment with local partners 13 Forward Funding & Forward Purchase Cooperation with (several) German partners with a sound knowledge of local markets and a network of strategic partnerships: Access to special assets Modern state of the art properties Widening of sourcing range Enlargement of know-how Yield spread over standing investments Structured legal framework partnerships and funds investment Cooperation with local asset managers, developers - acting as finance partners: Access to larger assets Shared decisions Put/Call Options Texas Shoot out Influence on letting strategy and asset management Risk distribution Reduction of cluster risks Different financing Secondary and regional markets Search for first class assets in select growth markets Decreased competition and more attractive margins vs. primary cities Focus on high quality buildings with long term tenancies and relatively attractive risk adjusted returns