Investment Market monthly Germany February 2016

Transcription

1 Savills World Research Investment Investment Market monthly February 216 Topic of the month Logistics is outgrowing its niche Logistics has previously played a niche role in the German commercial market, accounting for only around.% of the overall annual transaction volume during the last five years. However, there is much to suggest that this proportion will increase going forward. From a macroeconomic perspective, the German logistics sector has been a major contributor for many years, recording higher growth rates than the German economy as a whole. The sector generated approximately 23bn in 21, which was almost a quarter of the overall logistics volume for Europe. Accordingly, logistics occupies third place in the economic sector rankings in, with only the automotive and retail sectors generating higher revenue. The growth of the sector in recent years is substantially attributable to the booming e-commerce sector, which grew by 28% per year between 21 and 21. Since the strong growth in online retail will probably continue going forward, growth rates in the logistics sector are likely to remain above average (a more in-depth analysis of the German logistics market is provided in the research Logistics and Real Estate 21 ). And this growth requires space! More than 3 million sq m of logistics space was constructed per year between 21 and 21. By way of comparison, around 2 million sq m of new retail space was completed on retail parks during the same period. This is not an annual figure but an overall total. These numbers illustrate the structural change currently in progress, which is virtually inevitable at a time savills.de/research 1

2 February 216 Topic of the month (continuation) Logistics is outgrowing its niche when an increasingly large proportion of retail is being conducted online. GRAPH 1 Logistics transaction volume in comparison The structural growth of the logistics stock allows real estate investors to allocate more capital to the sector, thus increasing its importance in the investment market. Indeed, it is already evident that the transaction volume in the logistics sector has risen significantly more sharply since 29 than in the commercial investment market as a whole (Graph 1) Commercial transaction volume, 12 months rolling Logistics transaction volume, 12 months rolling The burgeoning status of logistics is also reflected in price growth. Since 29, initial yields in the logistics sector have hardened by more than 2 percentage points, which is more than in any other sector. In the prime segment, initial yields on warehouses barely differ from those on retail parks, with the yield differential currently standing at just 3 basis points (Graph 2). Evidently, investors now ascribe scarcely more investment risk to logistics than to retail parks. And if Amazon, Zalando, etc. can continue their rapid growth, it is not improbable that yields will converge further. Moreover, it is highly likely that logistics will account for a consistently higher proportion of the transaction volume going forward than the.% of the last five years. 29 = GRAPH 2 Prime yields in comparison* 8 Yield gap Logistics properties Retail parks % basis points Source: Bulwiengesa / * top7 cities The month in brief Commercial 12-months volume at.1bn, residential at 14.8bn In February 216, approx. 2.bn was invested in the commercial real estate market in total. In comparison: In the same month last year (February 21), the transaction volume was around 2.3bn. The average monthly transaction volume was at 4.6bn during February 21 and January 216. In the past twelve months some.1bn were invested, and therefore 1% less compared to the figure of last month (Feb 21 Jan 216). On the residential real estate market approx..bn was invested in February 216. In the same month last year (February 21), the transaction volume was at around 8.4bn. In the past twelve months (Feb 21 Jan 216) the average monthly transaction volume amounted to 1.2bn. The rolling transaction volume of the past twelve months summed up to 14.8bn, representing a decrease of 3% compared to the figure of last month (Feb 21 Jan 216). The reason for the significant decrease is that the acquisition of Gagfah by Vonovia is no longer part of the reporting period. savills.de/research 2

3 February 216 Commercial investment market Overview TABLE 1 Transaction volume and prime yields Transaction volume ( m, 12 months rolling) Prime Yield Office Prime Yield High street Feb 216 Feb 21 Jan 216 Q4 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q3 21 Berlin 7,3 +9% -1% 3.9% -1bps 3.6% +/-bps Düsseldorf 2, % +/-% 4.1% +/-bps 3.8% +/-bps Frankfurt, % -2% 4.% -1bps 3.% +/-bps Hamburg 3,9 +17% -3% 4.1% +/-bps 3.7% +/-bps Cologne 2, % -2% 4.3% -1bps 4.% -1bps Munich, % -2% 3.7% -1bps 3.% +/-bps Stuttgart 1, % +/-% 4.3% +/-bps 4.% +/-bps *,7 +4% -1% 4.1% -4bps 3.7% -1bps / * prime yields = Ø Top 7 GRAPH 3 Transaction volume past 12 months transaction volume, monthly (left axis) transaction volume, rolling (right axis) GRAPH Transaction volume by type of use Office % GRAPH 4 Deal size and number of transactions m average transaction size, rolling (left axis) number of transactions, rolling (right axis) GRAPH 6 Transaction volume by location* Berlin 16% 2,4 2, 1,6 1, % 3% 2% Retail Stuttgart 12% 8% Düsseldorf 1% 4% % % Munich Frankfurt Development land Industrial / Logistics Hotel Cologne Hamburg / * share of other locations 48% () and 48% () savills.de/research 3

4 February 216 Commercial investment market Buyer and seller groups GRAPH 7 Transaction volume by origin of buyer GRAPH 8 Transaction volume by origin of seller 6% 6% % % 4% 3% Remaining Europe 4% 3% Remaining Europe 2% 2% 1% 1% % % Middle East North America Middle East North America Asia/Pacific Asia/Pacific TABLE 2 Top 1 buyer groups TABLE 3 Top 1 seller groups # Buyer Volume ( m) Ø # Seller Volume ( m) Ø 1 Open-ended special fund 11,4 6,49 1 Developer 7,77 6,73 2 Listed company 6,22 3,647 2 Corporate 6, 3,73 3 Private-equity fund 4,816 3,18 3 asset manager,14 3,189 4 asset manager 4,88 3,472 4 Closed-ended fund 4,911 2,869 Developer 3,92 2,2 Open-ended special fund 4,14 2,698 6 Closed-ended fund 3,449 3, 6 Listed company 3,739 2,281 7 Corporate 3,134 2,22 7 Open-ended public fund 3,39 1,88 8 Insurance company / Pension fund 2,788 2,629 8 Private-equity fund 3,31 2,463 9 Private investor / Family office 2,79 2,3 9 Private investor / Family office 2,171 1,43 1 Open-ended public fund 2,49 1,29 1 Bank 1,3 1,431 savills.de/research 4

5 February 216 Commercial investment market Transactions in detail TABLE 4 Top 2 transactions of the month* Property / Portfolio Location(s) (Main) Type of Volume ( m) Area (sq m) Buyer Seller Forum Hanau Hanau Retail undisclosed 36,4 Hamburg Trust Grundvermögen und Anlage GmbH HBB Portfolio n/a Warehouses/ Logistics ca. 1 n/a Allianz Real Estate GmbH VGP Industrial Parks Portfolio (12 properties) n/a Community welfare ca. 138 n/a AG Real Estate, Cardif Lux Vie Threestones Capital Paul-Gossen-Straße 1 Erlangen Office undisclosed 47, publity Finanzgruppe AERIUM FINANCE Ltd daseinstein München Retail undisclosed 36, KIRKBI AG, Cells Bauwelt GmbH Pramerica Real Estate International AG Commerzbank Zentrale Hamburg Office undisclosed n/a Procom Invest GmbH, OFB Projektentwicklung GmbH Commerzbank AG Sapporobogen (9% share) München Office undisclosed 24,8 i. a. Nürnberger Lebensversicherung GEG German Estate Group AG WCM-Anteil (1 properties) i. a. Aschersleben, Atzendorf, Berlin Mixed-use undisclosed 6, DIC Asset AG WCM Beteiligungs- und Grundbesitz-AG Artemis (6 properties) i. a. Berlin, Langen, Mörfelden-Walldorf Mixed-use undisclosed 67,3 aurelis Real Estate GmbH & Co. KG GE Capital Real Estate, CO- RESIS Management GmbH TurmCarrée Frankfurt am Main Retail undisclosed 1,7 Warburg-Henderson KAG unknown Private Investor () Neues Zentrum am Bramfelder Dorfplatz Hamburg Mixed-use ca. 4 14,6 Aberdeen Asset Management Deutschland AG CDS Wohnbau GmbH, HTG Gadebusch Wirkbau-Gelände Chemnitz Mixed-use undisclosed 43, MIB AG TLG Immobilien GmbH Innside by Meliá - Kosmoshaus Leipzig Hotel/gastronomy undisclosed 13, PATRIZIA Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft mbh KSW GmbH Spiegel-Hochhaus Height 1 Hamburg Office undisclosed 7,2 Berenberg Bank, Universal- Investment-Gesellschaft mbh Berenberg Bank Hotel Number One Freiburg im Breisgau Hotel/gastronomy ca. 28 n/a Allgemeine Rentenanstalt Pensionskasse Unmüssig-Gruppe Europa-Center Essen Essen Office ca , Dream Global REIT EUROPA-CENTER AG Portfolio ( properties) i. a. Aschaffenburg, Frankfurt, Wuppertal Warehouses/ Logistics undisclosed 39, EYEMAXX Real Estate AG Birkart GmbH & Co. Grundstücksverwaltung n/a Oberursel (Taunus) Office undisclosed 18, Summit Limited unknown Investor Kamen Quadrat Kamen Retail undisclosed 7,7 Greenman Investments unknown Developer () Edisoncenter Neu-Ulm Office ca. 2 1,3 unknown Institutional Investor Pegasus Capital Partners GmbH / * only published transactions are shown, measured by volume savills.de/research

6 February 216 Residential investment market Overview and market structure TABLE Transaction volume and prices* Transaction volume ( m, 12 months rolling) Prices ( per unit, 12 months rolling) Feb 216 Feb 21 Jan 216 Feb 216 Feb 21 Jan 216 A-Cities 6,794 +1% -22% 12,9 +18% +9% B-Cities 1,348-68% -69% 81,9 +44% +29% C-Cities 1,346-22% -38% 8,9 +33% +9% D-Cities 1,26-29% -16% 1,1 +19% +4% 4,263-7% -32%,8 +23% +2% 14,777-17% -3% 7,9 +29% +9% / * City classification based on Bulwiengesa GRAPH 9 Transaction volume transaction volume, monthly (left axis) transaction volume, rolling (right axis) past 12 months GRAPH 1 Deal size and number of transactions 1,4 1,2 average number of units per transaction, rolling (left axis) number of transactions, rolling (right axis) , GRAPH 11 Number of transactions by size GRAPH 12 Traded units by city category* < 1 units 4% 3% A 4% 3% 2% 2% >, units 1% 1 < 2 units 1% B % % 1, <, units 2 < 1, units D C / * based on the Bulwiengesa classification savills.de/research 6

7 February 216 Residential investment market Market players, prices and transactions in detail GRAPH 13 Transaction volume by origin of buyer 1% 8% GRAPH 14 Transaction volume by origin of seller 1% 8% 6% 4% Remaining Europe 6% 4% Remaining Europe 2% 2% % % Middle East North America Middle East North America Asia/Pacific Asia/Pacific GRAPH 1 Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, Net investments, Ø Listed company Open-ended special fund Housing association asset manager Public administration Leasing company Sovereign wealth fund Open-ended public fund Private-equity fund Bank Closed-ended fund Private investor / Family office Corporate Insurance company / Pension fund Developer Sales, Net investments, GRAPH16 Development of prices /sq m 8, 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, Average price per unit, rolling TABLE 6 Top portfolio transactions of the month* Name of portfolio Location(s) Number of units Volume ( m) Buyer Seller Frankfurt, Mannheim 1,9 undisclosed Heitman International GmbH Grainger Trust plc. Buchholz, Kiel, Lüneburg 8 undisclosed Wertgrund Immobilien AG Akelius GmbH München 21 ca. Rock Capital GmbH unknown Family Office Braunschweig 349 undisclosed Wertgrund Immobilien AG unknown Institutional Investor Potsdam 18 undisclosed / * only published transactions are shown, measured by volume Aberdeen Asset Management Deutschland AG Hanseatische Immobilien Treuhand (HIT) savills.de/research 7

8 February 216 Savills Savills is present in with around 2 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. Today Savills provides expertise and market transparency to its clients in the following areas of activity: D HH B Our services Purchase and sale of single assets and portfolios Corporate Finance Valuation Leasing of office and retail buildings Leasing and sale of industrial and warehouse properties Landlord and Occupier Services C F S M Savills Please contact us for further information Marcus Lemli CEO +49 () mlemli@savills.de Andreas Wende Investment +49 () awende@savills.de Marcus Mornhart Office Agency +49 () mmornhart@savills.de Karsten Nemecek Corp. Finance - Valuation +49 () knemecek@savills.de Draženko Grahovac Corp. Finance - Valuation +49 () dgrahovac@savills.de Matthias Pink Research +49 () mpink@savills.de Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company, established in 18, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows and now has over 7 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East with more than 3, employees worldwide. Savills is present in with around 2 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. This bulletin is for general informative purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The bulletin is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. Savills March 216 savills.de/research 8