Page 1. Grainger Trust plc

Transcription

1 Page 1 Grainger Trust plc

2 Contents Page No Grainger - an introduction 3-7 The market in which we operate 8-11 Grainger s core business regulated Other parts of Grainger s business Equity release Property and asset management Development and trading Grainger Europe REITs 28 Financials Outlook 34 Page 2

3 Grainger An Introduction Grainger is the largest quoted residential property owner in the UK with a portfolio of over 12,000 homes The core business is the letting of tenanted houses and the subsequent trade on vacancy We are also involved in residential development, regeneration, asset management and have started to invest in Continental Europe Page 3

4 Business Objective To capture reversionary surpluses through trading activities and to use our skills and experience in the residential market to achieve superior returns in residential investment asset and property management, development and trading Page 4

5 Group Structure diagram Grainger Trust plc Tenanted Residential Development and Trading Sales and Acquisitions Equity Release Asset and Property Management Urban and Rural Regeneration Residential Development Grainger Europe Page 5

6 Group History 1750 m Acquisition of balance of BPT 24.3m Acquisition of City North Group 61m 1400 Gross Property Assets Floated on stock market 18 m Acquisition of CHAPS and Atlantic Metropolitan 75m Acquisition of Frincon Holdings Limited 61m Acquisition of 50% of BPT 54m Founded in Newcastle upon Tyne in 1912 Gross property and investment assets at 31 March 2006: 1.76 billion (last revaluation September 2005) Page 6

7 Share Price /5/ GRAINGER TRUST FTSE MID PRICE INDEX FTSE ALL SHARE REAL ESTATE - PRICE INDEX Source: DATASTREAM Page 7

8 Grainger Long Term Growth NAV per share pence (shown pre IFRS) Dividends 3 per share p Year NAV per share pence Dividends per share 0 Page 8 10 year compound per annum growth rates: NAV per share 22.5% Dividends per share 14%

9 UK residential market relative attractiveness Residential out performance over all periods All Property Residential Relative Total Return Total Return Return To end 2004 (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) 3 years years years years Residential investment market the same size as the UK commercial sector Investible residential stock (excluding owner occupied, housing association and student/senior housing stock) estimated at 475 billion Residential assets demonstrate relative attractive risk/return Average Volatility of Return per Total Return Return Unit of Risk ( ) ( ) ( ) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) Commercial Real Estate Residential Real Estate Page 9 Source: IPD, ODPM, DTZ Research, FPD Savills

10 UK Residential Capital Growth Short term supported by good affordability and low unemployment Long term supported by:- Shortage of supply Planning constraints Increasing number of households (immigration, population growth, increased life expectancy, smaller households) Page 10

11 UK Residential Housing Market House price inflation ( HPI ) in short to medium-term supported by: Good affordability Low unemployment Increased use and availability of fixed rate mortgage debt promotes stability * % UK Affordability Index 1974 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Source: Capital Economics *Percentage of earnings paid by a new borrower on first year mortgage Page 11

12 Grainger Core Business Core business is regulated property 7,800 units, value 949m, 60% of residential portfolio Features Tenant has right of tenure Net rental yield sub market (2-3%) Purchased at a discount (73% of vacant possession value) Sold when vacancy arises High demand on sale (low average value, un-modernised) Page 12

13 Grainger Core Business Average age of tenants c.72 Current vacancy rate c.9% per annum Return comes from rental yield and from profit on sale On above assumptions and with 4% pa house price inflation, produces ungeared return of c. 9.3% No more regulateds created post 1988, but still able to acquire replacement properties Page 13

14 Grainger Core Business Cashflow per annum from sales m With 0% HPI With 4% HPI (assumes no replacement of regulated Stock) Years High level of cashflow generation m Vacant possession value 1,303 Investment value 949 Page 14 Reversionary surplus 354

15 Grainger Equity Release Equity release enables elderly home owners to realise the value of the equity in their homes through either a life term mortgage or a home reversion Grainger offers home reversion products through its own brand name (Bridgewater) and through a distribution agreement with Norwich Union (part of Aviva the UK s largest insurer) Home reversion property acquired for c.50% of vacant possession value Tenant has security of tenure and lives rent free Page 15

16 Equity Release economic characteristics No rental income but high profit on sale Ungeared return with 4% house price inflation c.9.7% m Vacant possession value 372 Investment value 204 Reversionary surplus 168 Page 16

17 Grainger Property and asset management As well as own portfolio of over 12,000 units Grainger manages 1,400 properties for third parties National network of six offices in key market areas with local agent support Produces useful source of additional income using existing management infrastructure Page 17

18 Grainger Fund management In process of setting up fund structure seeded with 200m of Grainger s market rented portfolio Grainger will retain c.20% stake Grainger will receive asset and property management fees to improve ROCE. Page 18

19 Grainger Fund management Shillington Old School, Clapham, London Investment value: 10.1m 1 Current rent: 621,000 p.a. Gross yield: 6.1% A detached former Victorian school currently arranged to provide 7 studio flats, 36 one bedroom flats and 6 two bedroom flats. The building also comprises a number of guest rooms, gym, small management office, toilets, shower, ancillary areas and 36 car parking spaces Great Sutton Street & 6 Berry Street, Clerkenwell, London Investment value: 8.3m 1 Current rent: 510,000 p.a. Gross yield: 6.1% Victorian warehouse, refurbished and converted to provide 2 studios, 5 one bedroom, 14 two bedroom and 5 three bedroom flats together with 2 live/work units and 8 car parking spaces Page 19

20 Grainger Fund management Kempshott Park, Basingstoke Investment value: 4.6m 1 Current rent: 278,000 p.a. Gross yield: 6.0% Purpose built block developed in 2005 by Grainger. Comprises 2 retail units and 25 flats Pelham Court and Waverley Court, Horsham, Sussex Investment value: 9.0m 1 Current rent: 558,000 p.a. Gross yield: 6.2% Purpose-built block of 81 flats and garages. Refurbishment programme for individual flats and extensive landscaping and car parking scheme proposed Page 20

21 Grainger - Development and Trading Division Activities centred on:- Residential development principally apartment blocks in London Land and regeneration purchase of green and brownfield land sites Page 21

22 Development and Trading Objective is to use knowledge and experience of UK residential market to produce superior returns Asset value c. 90m, producing operating profits 10-15m pa. Page 22

23 Grainger Europe Long term reversionary portfolios in Western Europe (particularly Germany) Opportunistic residential developments in Central Europe Page 23

24 Grainger Europe Why German residential? Potential for rental growth Attractive financing environment gives yield spread Low unit pricing relative to other European markets Low level of home ownership (42% cf EU average 59%) Opportunities for experienced professional landlord Page 24

25 Grainger Europe Residential Portfolio 1,406 units Recklinghausen Herten Hamm! Hamburg! Hannover Herne Oer-! Erckenschwick Düsseldorf! Frankfurt Gelsenkirchen 547 units Mannheim! Karlsruhe! Stuttgart!! München Berlin! Dresden! 379 units Portfolio Overview 2,332 units (plus 66 commercial units and 3 acres of land) 168,000 sq. metres 136m cost Approximate owner occupied value 191m 9.0m gross rent 7.0m net rent Between 13-16% under market rent 26.3m subsidised loan at 0.5% per annum All units completed by end March, payment of 48.5m deferred to June Page 25

26 Grainger Europe Portfolio Analysis Portfolio Analysis m m Vacant Residential Gross Purchase Purchase Gross Net Possession Location Units Sq. Metre Rent Price Price psm Yield Yield psm Metro Ruhr 1,406 95, % 4.5% c. 1,100 Baden-Wuerttemberg , , % 5.2% c Berlin , % 6.7% c , , % 5.0% 1,150 Page 26

27 Grainger Europe Tallinn Acquisition price: 5.96m No of units to be built : 800 Total development Costs: 36.5m GT share of JV 45% ( 2.7m investment) Business plan is to develop apartments over 4-5 years Return expectation 22-25% pa Zizkov, Prague Acquisition of 4.2 hectare site for 6.5m (our share 5.3m). Business plan is to develop retail/residential scheme over 3-4 years Page 27

28 REITs Draft legislation will exclude trading properties from ring fenced regime. Gearing calculation excludes trading income. Conversion highly unlikely. Future opportunities for Grainger from creation of externally managed residential REITs. Page 28

29 Summary Profit and Loss Account Six months ended 31 March March 2005 m m Tenanted residential Development and trading Europe Operating contributions Administrative expenses (6.1) (4.2) Goodwill written off (6.1) - Valuation gains on assets Fair value movements - financial assets and derivatives Earnings before interest and tax Net interest payable (27.6) (22.3) Joint ventures (0.7) - Profit before tax Page 29

30 Cashflow Page March March 2005 m m Income Net rents, other income 5 6 Property sales Working capital movements (7) (25) Interest, tax, dividends (37) (35) Net operating income Loan movements Available for property spend Tenanted residential acquisitions (UK) (43) (56) Tenanted residential acquisitions (Germany) (67) - Development and trading (11) (16) Purchase of subsidiaries, joint ventures and associates (48) - Other - (8) (169) (80) Cash movement 15 (2)

31 Market Value Balance Sheet 31 March September 2005 m m Properties Tenanted residential 1,591 1,473 Development and trading Total properties 1,684 1,597 Cash,investment, other Total assets 1,834 1,693 Debt (1,041) (914) Deferred taxation (86) (101) Net current liabilities (112) (64) Net assets Gearing 163% 140% Loan to value ratio 55% 53% No revaluation of property at 31 March 2006 Page 31

32 Asset Values Regulated Home Reversion Other tenanted property Cost Market Value Vacant possession value m Vacant possession value 2,177 Investment value 1,592 Page 32 Reversionary surplus 585 (figures include share of Joint Venture's)

33 Net asset value 31 March 2006 pence per share m NAV NNNAV Traditional NAV measures do not adequately account for reversionary surplus in the portfolio (difference between vacant possession and investment value) standing at 585m or some 451p per share. If we calculate net present value of that surplus then NNNAV becomes:- Grainger NAV (pence per share) HPI per annum Discount rate 5.6% 8.6% 0% % % Page 33

34 Outlook Continued focus on long term residential market including home reversion Introduce third party equity into market rented fund Building on European acquisitions Development and trading division focus on residential development and urban/rural regeneration. Page 34