Automotive Industry Forecast

Transcription

1 Automotive Industry Forecast Sean P. McAlinden, Ph.D. Executive Vice President, Chief Economist Center for Automotive Research Steel Manufacturers Association Ypsilanti, Michigan March 25, 2014

2 The Center for Automotive Research conducts leadingedge research that impacts the future of the global automotive industry. Automotive industry contract research and service organization CAR is a standalone Non-Profit 501(c)3 since 2003 Based in Ann Arbor, MI 30+ Employees CAR forecasts industry trends, advises on public policy, and sponsors multi-stakeholder communication forums

3 CAR s Automotive Industry Affiliates

4 GDP Outlook Through 2015 U.S., China, NAFTA, and Rest of World (In 2005 $Billions, constant PPPs) 40,000 U.S. China NAFTA excl. U.S. ROW 35,000 30,000 25,000 GDP Growth Rate: ROW: 3.3% 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - U.S.: 2.6% China: 7.7% NAFTA excl. U.S.: 2.7% Source: OECD Economic Outlook, No 94 November OECD Annual Projections, Gross domestic product, volume, at 2005 PPP, USD.

5 Vehicles Per 1,000 Population Vehicle Density and GDP Per Capita, BRA RUS MEX USA JPN DEU KOR 1, CHN IND ,000 10, ,000 GDP Per Capita, PPP Current $ Source: Ward s World Motor Vehicle Data; The World Bank

6 Millions Millions Motor Vehicle Sales in Units S. Korea Canada Germany Japan China U.S Source: Automotive News; Ward s Auto Yearbook; CAAM; JAMA

7 Millions Motor Vehicle Production By Regions East Asia China Europe N.A East Asia: Japan and S. Korea; Europe: Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Italy, Poland, Belgium, and Romania; N.A.: Canada, USA, and Mexico.

8 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Percent Change YTD Through February: 2014 vs Total 2,203,668-32, % -1.4% Light Trucks + 50,009 1,130, % 4.6% Passenger Cars -7.1% 1,073,664-82, % Source: Automotive News; CAR Research

9 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Monthly Sales (Millions) Monthly SAAR U.S. Light Vehicle Monthly Sales and SAAR February 2012 February 2014 SALES SAAR Source: Automotive News; CAR Research

10 Billion $ (2005 dollar) Million Units Are Sales Back? In Spending (Billion of 2009 $) In Units Spending back to 2006 level Vehicle sales at mid-90s Source: BEA

11 Percent Change in Sales of Light Vehicles Per OEM: YTD Through February: 2014 vs TOTAL -1.4% Nissan 14.0% Fiat-Chrysler 9.9% Hyundai-Kia -1.5% Honda -4.8% Toyota -7% GM -6.1% Ford -6.7% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2,203,688-32, % 205, , % 282, , % 171,237-2, % 192,036-9, % 305,649-18, % 393,590-25, % 336,843-24, % Source: Automotive News; CAR Research

12 N.A. Light Vehicle Production Percent Change YTD Through February: 2014 vs TOTAL Fiat-Chrysler Nissan GM Hyundai-Kia Honda Toyota Ford -4.8% -9.4% -9.7% -13.4% 1.0% 4.6% 18.3% 32.4% 2,726, , % 491, , % 279, , % 570, , % 126,923-6, % 283,730-29, % 265,437-28, % 445,770-68, % -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: Automotive News; CAR Research

13 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Total Big 7 Days in Inventory Big 7 Inventory in Days 700 (Jan 2013-Mar 2014) Toyota Nissan Hyundai-Kia Honda GM Ford Chrysler Month-Year Source: Automotive News

14 2013 Per Vehicle Profits*, North America 3,000 $2,844 2,500 $2,307 2,000 1,500 $1,323 $1,254 $1,225 1, GM Ford Chrysler Honda Toyota *EBIT or automotive operating income per vehicle sold. Global average for Chrysler figure. Honda also excludes motorcycle, finance, and power products.

15 Now We re Talking... North American Automotive Revenue Per Vehicle $34,000 GM Ford Chrysler $32,000 $30,000 $28,000 $26,000 $24,000 $22,000 $24,267 $22,604 $21,969 $24,900 $24,348 $22,839 $24,154 $24,176 $22,896 $25,798 $22,793 $21,845 $31,632 $27,669 $26,700 $30,859 $29,639 $27,931 $31,333 $29,991 $30,000 $29,406 $28,700 $28,789 $20, Source: CAR Research based on companies financial reports.

16 Per Vehicle Profits*, North America $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,391 $1,094 $2,275 $1,921 $2,058 $2,226 $1,543 $1,237 $995 $975 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $- $(306) $452 $- $(1,000) $(1,416) $(1,054) Detroit Three Toyota and Honda $(1,000) $(2,000) $(2,000) $(3,000) $(3,308) $(3,229) $(3,000) $(4,000) *EBIT or automotive operating income per vehicle sold. Global average for Chrysler figure. Honda excludes motorcycle, finance, and power products. $(4,000)

17 Market Share: Segment Breakdown U.S. LV Sales February YTD 2014 Middle CUV Middle Car Small Car 18.9% 18.7% 21.1% Pickup 13.3% Luxury Car SUV Van Small CUV Large CUV Large Car 7.4% 6.3% 5.0% 3.5% 3.3% 2.5% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Source: Ward s Automotive Reports

18 Segment Breakdown - U.S. LV Sales Percent Change February YTD 2014 vs. February YTD 2013 Total Large Car Small CUV Middle CUV Van Luxury Car Pickup SUV Large CUV Small Car Middle Car -15.4% -1.5% -2.3% -3.9% -4.3% -5.5% 3.7% 1.9% 10.7% 24.9% 38.7% -25.0% -15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% 35.0% 45.0% Source: Ward s Automotive Reports

19 2014 U.S. Sales Forecasts (Units in Millions) 16.2 (3/14) (3/14) (12/13) 16.3 (3/14) (1/14) (3/14) 16.0 (1/14) Sources: Various (1/14) (1/14)

20 CAR Forecast Notes March ended with 1.9% GDP growth, but corporate profitability reached to a new high. Good news for long term employment growth? Maybe not... Employment has grown back to near pre-recession level, despite record share for part-time jobs. However, majority of 2013 job creation was full-time. Bad weather slowed 1Q 2014 economic activities. Vehicle output was cut. But for the rest of 2014, vehicle demand will be strong, backing by a bullish employment outlook. Vehicle supply will be in shortage. Vehicle price will be even higher. Young people delay entering labor market. Unemployment rate will no longer be back to pre-recession level. 6% is the natural unemployment rate from now on. Without young generation entering labor market, labor participation rate will remain low. GDP growth will be hindered. Labor productivity won t grow forever. Household net worth growth rate was much higher than income growth rate. Interest rate was low. Good time to buy big-ticket items such as cars. Consumer confidence was marginally up from a year ago. Gas prices should be stable, credit very available. Housing starts are still low comparing to pre-recession levels. It is correlated to employment growth and vehicle sales. Operating vehicles still getting older but since over half are over 11 years old scrap should increase a lot soon...

21 They are Getting Old... U.S. Light Vehicle Age and Scrappage Rate Average Age Scrappage Rate (%) Source: R.L. Polk

22 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Price Per Gallon Gasoline Prices (Nominal) Jan. 03 Jan. 14 $4.50 $4.00 $3.99 $3.90 $3.96 $3.50 $3.00 $2.86 $2.92 $3.12 $3.06 $2.60 $2.85 $3.36 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.95 $1.64 $1.62 $2.21 $1.00 Source: EIA

23 Light Vehicle Sales Household Net Worth in Trillions Household Net Worth and Vehicle Sales Light Vehicle Sales Household Net Worth Net Worth (Real $) Source: Federal Reserve Statistical Release, Z.1, Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States Real Household net worth is deflated by CPI.

24 Million U.S. Sales Forecast: % % % % % Source: CAR Research, March

25 Million U.S. Production Forecast: % % % % % Source: CAR Research, March

26 Million North American Production Forecast: Source: CAR Research, March % 39.5% 5.8% 17.3% 1.8% 26

27 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales/Production in Million Units U.S. Light Vehicle Sales & Production Forecasts ; 2014F-2020F U.S. Sales U.S. Production Source: CAR Research; LMC Automotive.

28 N.A. Light Vehicle Sales/Production in Million Units 25.0 N.A. Sales N.A. Production Source: CAR Research; LMC Automotive.

29 Miles per Gasoline Gallon normalized to CAFE Test Cycle Trends in Fuel Economy Standards for Select Countries and Regions, MPG, Solid dots and lines: historical performance Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Hollow dots and dotted lines: target under study EU 2020: Japan 2020: Korea 2015: 39.3 China 2020 [1] : 50.1 US 2025 [2] : 49.1 US-LDV Canada-LDV Mexico 2016: 35.1 Canada 2016: 34.5 EU Japan China S. Korea Australia [1] China's target reflects gasoline vehicles only. The target may be higher after new energy vehicles are considered. [2] United States, Canada, and Mexico light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles. Mexico Source: The World Bank Center for Automotive Research, March

30 54.5 MPG Goodbye to the American Pickup? (38.0 MPG for All Trucks w/ AC/credits) Dodge Warren Truck Assembly, MI GM Powertrain Romulus, MI GM Flint Truck Assembly, MI GM Powertrain Toledo, OH GM Fort Wayne Truck, IN Ford Powertrain Windsor, ON Ford Dearborn, MI Truck Assembly Ford Powertrain, Romeo Michigan Ford Kansas City, MO Truck Assembly Chrysler Mack Ave. V8 Detroit, MI GM Arlington, TX Truck Assembly Ford Livonia/Sharonville, MI/OH Transmission Ford Kentucky Truck, Louisville, KY Chrysler Kokomo, IN Transmission

31 Lightweighting High Strength Steel, Aluminum & Composites Take on the Heavyweights

32 Why Light Weighting? Excess weight kills any self-propelled vehicle. There are a lot of fool ideas about weight Whenever anyone suggests to me that I might increase weight or add a part, I look into decreasing weight and eliminating a part! Henry Ford, 1922 Every automotive manufacturer is pursuing light weighting as a key strategy to reduce fuel consumption irrespective of the powertrain technology pathway. A 10% reduction in vehicle weight generates a 6-7% improvement in fuel consumption Center for Automotive Research, March

33 Lightweighting Material Architectural Strategy All technology pathways anticipate lightweighting The monolithic car with one dominant material is: Easier to design, and Easier to manufacture, but Not optimum for reducing mass and cost Ford 2015 F-150 Aluminum body & bed Steel frame Future Steel Vehicle 35% reduction in body mass Aluminum Intensive 45% reduction in body mass Composite Car - 55% reduction in body mass Source: Center for Automotive Research

34 Key Material Trends (Next 10 years) Increased use of ultra high strength steel for structural components around the safety cage to prevent intrusion Aluminum use for chassis and exterior panels is increasing Fiber reinforced plastics (glass and carbon) for structural components are still several years away from high volume production Joining complexity: more laser welding, fasteners and adhesives Structural Adhesive

35 Pounds per N.A. Vehicle Rise of Aluminum Hasn t Affected Total Steel Yet ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 3,187 3,141 Total Weight Steel% Alum% % of Vehicle Weight 4,040 4,044 4,097 4,039 3,902 3,939 3,962 4,035 3,920 3, % 9.3% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Year

36 Materials and Mass Reduction Expectations Material Material Replaced Mass Reduction % Magnesium Steel, Cast Iron 60 75% Carbon Fiber Composites Steel Aluminum Matrix Composites Steel, Cast Iron Aluminum Steel, Cast Iron Titanium Alloy Steel Glass Fiber Composites Steel Advanced High Strength Steels Mild Steel, Carbon Steel High Strength Steel Mild Steel Source: US Department of Energy

37 Materials manufacturing challenges

38 Why Steel is Better (for now) Supply chain exists Manuf. Equipment/Tooling exists Cheaper Improving Repair aftermarket exists! More durable Easier recycling Easier to manufacture? -maybe not HSSs