Aluminum Sheet Outlook in Auto. Randall Scheps Alcoa

Transcription

1 Aluminum Sheet Outlook in Auto Randall Scheps Alcoa

2 Cautionary Statement Cautionary Statement Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as anticipates, estimates, expects, forecasts, outlook, plans, projects, should, targets, will, or other words of similar meaning. All statements that reflect Alcoa s expectations, assumptions, or projections about the future other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, forecasts concerning global demand growth for aluminum, endmarket conditions, global auto body sheet consumption, and growth opportunities for aluminum in automotive, commercial transportation and other applications, trend projections, targeted financial results or operating performance, and statements about Alcoa s strategies, outlook, and business and financial prospects. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors and are not guarantees of future performance. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include: (a) material adverse changes in aluminum industry conditions, including global supply and demand conditions and fluctuations in London Metal Exchange-based prices (and premiums, as applicable) for primary aluminum, alumina, and other products, and fluctuations in indexed-based and spot prices for alumina; (b) deterioration in global economic and financial market conditions generally; (c) unfavorable changes in the markets served by Alcoa, including automotive and commercial transportation, aerospace, building and construction, distribution, packaging, defense, and industrial gas turbine; (d) unfavorable changes in aluminum recycling rates or Alcoa s recycling capabilities; (e) the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates on costs and results; (f) increases in energy costs or in the costs of other raw materials, or the interruption of energy supplies; (g) Alcoa s inability to achieve the level of revenue growth, cash generation, cost savings, improvement in profitability and margins, fiscal discipline, or strengthening of competitiveness and operations (including moving its alumina refining and aluminum smelting businesses down on the industry cost curves and increasing revenues in its Global Rolled Products and Engineered Products and Solutions segments) anticipated from its restructuring programs and productivity improvement, cash sustainability, and other initiatives; (h) Alcoa's inability to realize expected benefits, in each case as planned and by targeted completion dates, from sales of non-core assets, or from newly constructed, expanded, or acquired facilities, such as the auto expansions in Davenport, IA and Alcoa, TN, or from international joint ventures, including the joint venture in Saudi Arabia; (i) political, economic, and regulatory risks in the countries in which Alcoa operates or sells products, including unfavorable changes in laws and governmental policies, civil unrest, or other events beyond Alcoa s control; (j) the outcome of contingencies, including legal proceedings, government investigations, and environmental remediation; (k) the business or financial condition of key customers, suppliers, and business partners; (l) adverse changes in tax rates or benefits; (m) adverse changes in discount rates or investment returns on pension assets; (n) the impact of cyber attacks and potential information technology or data security breaches; and (o) the other risk factors summarized in Alcoa's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012 and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Alcoa disclaims any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether in response to new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Any forecast or other forward-looking statement set forth in the following slides speaks as of the date such forecast or statement was originally presented as indicated on the slide. Alcoa is not updating or affirming any of such information as of today s date. The provision of this information shall not create any implication that the information has not changed since it was originally presented. 2

3 May 2013 Source: Detroit News, May 2013

4 Historic auto industry shift to lightweight vehicles Consumers/OEMs preferences, projected aluminum content per vehicle Consumers want fuel economy % supporting higher fuel economy regulations And 88% say fuel economy will be an important factor in their next vehicle purchase Increasing sheet intensity North America aluminum body sheet content per vehicle (in lbs) Al auto sheet demand expected to grow to 1MMT by 2025 Actual Projected 136 OEMs need fuel economy US CAFE regulations (MPG) +100% 14 ~10x ~4x Sources: Alcoa Earnings Presentation, Jan 9,

5 Aluminum s march through the car continues Total aluminum content history and forecast, Lbs / veh Based on our current understanding, we believe we re approaching the practical limits of the application of high-strength steels Frank Paluch, Senior Vice President,Honda R&D Americas 600 BODY-IN- WHITE 550 lbs 500 Hoods Pounds Per Vehicle Wheels Engines 343 lbs 200 Heat Exchangers Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011

6 Aluminum intensity is growing and driving auto sheet demand North American Market Demand (kmt) 4x increase in auto sheet already locked into designs of 2015 models 4,550 1,125 Auto Sheet Other Auto Aluminum (Castings, etc.) 3, , ,425 2,300 2, * Sources: Ducker Worldwide, IHS, Alcoa analysis *) Extrapolated based on IHS 2020 forecast 6

7 Alcoa s auto triple play: 3 smart investments to capitalize on AIV growth Automotive growth projects Phase 1 Auto Expansion Davenport $300M investment Supported by secured contracts On time and on budget First coil by Dec Phase 2 Auto Expansion Tennessee $275M investment Enables flexible production Much of volume secured Broke ground in Aug Complete by mid-2015 Positioning for growth in MENA Saudi Arabia JV $380M total investment * Addition to can sheet mill Cold mill, heat treat, finishing Broke ground in Dec First auto coil by Dec Auto Treatment Line Davenport, IA Alcoa TN facility Alcoa, TN Saudi Arabia JV KSA Source: November 7, 2013 Investor Day *Total investment relates to rolling mill capability expansion to include auto sheet, building and construction sheet and foil stock. Alcoa s investment portion is ~$95M 7

8 Aluminum Bodies Already on the Road Tesla Model S World Car of the Year Award Winner Automobile Magazine s Car of the Year 5 Star Safety Rated Next Step Mass Market Range Rover World s First All- Aluminum SUV 39% lighter body Corvette Stingray Aluminum Frame 100lbs lighter than prior 57% stiffer

9 The Biggest News for Aluminum in Decades 647,000 units sold (2013) New design launching this year All new military grade aluminum body 700 lbs lighter No compromises 2015 Ford F-150 Over time, aluminum absolutely will move across our product line. It will be the material of choice. Alan Mulally Video

10 The typical car of the (near) future Aluminum intensive body SUV No compromises: size, function safety, performance 28% (1050 lbs) total mass reduction vs. steel Aluminum body, doors, hood, chassis, suspension, brakes All aluminum body in white 4.8 MPG fuel economy improvement Based on our current understanding, we believe we re approaching the practical limits of the application of high-strength steels Frank Paluch, Senior Vice President,Honda R&D Americas

11 A Major Shift in Material Mix Underway Plastics 9% All Other 12% Glass 3% Today s SUV Plastics 10% All Other 12% Glass 3% Tomorrow s SUV Steel 30% Iron 8% Mg 0% Steel 59% Iron 4% Mg 4% Aluminum 9% Total Mass: 1,711Kg 28% Mass Reduction Aluminum 37% Total Mass: 1,237 Kg Source: ATG AIV

12 Supply Considerations Ample primary metal supply Hot and cold rolling can capacity flex to auto Heat treat and finishing capacity is unique to auto must be added Existing suppliers investing heavily Early involvement of supply base is critical Typical heat treat and finishing line Experienced suppliers in best position

13 Alcoa technology leading the way

14 Summary Shift to aluminum sheet is accelerating 1MMT by 2025 (NA) Aluminum saves more weight than steel up to 28% Lower lifecycle CO2 Better fuel economy 17% Lower 4.8 MPG No compromises for the end customer When we put it all together, to have the F-150 do what we wanted, there was only one answer: ALUMINUM -Raj Nair, Ford VP Global Product Development