Aluminium s revolution in the automotive industry Dr. Erwin Mayr, President, Novelis Europe
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1 Aluminium s revolution in the automotive industry Dr. Erwin Mayr, President, Novelis Europe Metal Bulletin Conference, Munich Mai 20 th 2015
2 Excess weight kills any self-propelled vehicle Weight may be desirable in a steam roller but nowhere else - Henry Ford
3 Alu FRP demand estimated to grow by 12m tons from 2010 to 2020 Global FRP Aluminum demand M tons Aluminum FRP demand to grow 12 Million tons over the current decade Average global annual growth rate at 4% Young growth industry Source: Novelis industry analysis 3
4 FRP demand in Automotive is rapidly catching up with Can Mt 5.3 Mt 6.2 Mt 0.2 Mt 1.0 Mt 2.2 Mt Source: Novelis industry analysis 4
5 Aluminum sheet still small in automotive with a long run way 80 Mt Steel, Mt Aluminum FRP, Mt Aluminum FRP for cars, 2015 Source: Wood Mackenzie 5
6 Adaption in mass market cars leads to strong growth in the future Global FRP Aluminum demand in Auto M tons Porsche SUV 2.5 C-Class S-Class 2.2 C-segment car 2.0 Range Rover Audi Q7 E-Class BMW 5/7 series Ford F Audi A Jaguar XJ 0.06 Audi A Source: Novelis industry analysis 6
7 Primary drivers for change to Aluminum in Automotive Regulations Enforcement of emission reductions Light-weighting Performance Customers expecting better specs 15 Fuel economics Customers wanting to pay less for gas Efficiency 0 MPG Environmental sensitivity Desire to reduce ecological footprint 7
8 Regulations are tightening in key markets Allowed CO2 emissions for cars Grams of tailpipe CO2 emission per kilometer normalized to NEDC test cycle USA (cars) EU Enforced reduction of ~45% in both, USA and EU between 2000 and Same trend to be found in other countries such as Brazil, China, Japan Exports force producers to comply with most stringent regulations Source: ICCT, Wood Mackenzie 8
9 Main growth for Auto Aluminum demand in North America +200% % % North America Europe Asia Incl. RoW Auto sheet demand 2015 (blue) and 2020 (grey), in kt Source: Novelis industry analysis 9
10 Surging demand in the US due to regulatory pressure Demand and supply of Auto FRP kt, North America Capacity Demand Source: Novelis industry analysis; Wood Mackenzie 10
11 Investments in place at or above European demand Demand and supply of Auto FRP kt, Europe Capacity Demand Source: Novelis industry analysis; Wood Mackenzie 11
12 Good business can be bad for business Number of entrants / margins # of competitors/ capacity Margins Time Source: Credit Suisse 12
13 Innovation becoming increasingly important to differentiate Forming Advanz e200 for high forming skin applications, e.g. bodysides Advanz Fusion e200 for high forming applications, e.g. door inners Strength / crash Advanz s600: full crash 250 MPa 6xxx: Mpa semi-crash Tailored properties blanks Joining Full family of remotely weldable alloys Advanz e200 E170 HS6xxx Multi material joining steel/alu Recycling Increasing recycled content in all alloys (reducing footprint and cost) Circular material flows in closed loops World-class scrap sorting technology Process and EOL recycling 13
14 Bodyside Evolution in Aluminum at JLR One piece Advanz e170 bodyside the largest single aluminum automotive body panel in the world to date Simple concept which brings weight and costs saving Source: JLR presentation, Eurocarbody 2012, R. Lloyd, G. Moyce, S. Black, M. Rickards 14
15 Advanz c300 - Crash Energy Alloy Compared to previous 5754 equivalent part 20% Weight save achieved circa 6kg per vehicle 9% Cost save per vehicle tons CO 2 reduced from annual fleet tailpipe emissions Source: Novelis R&T 15
16 Novelis Innovation & Technology Leader Spokane, WA Molten Metal Research Plant Support Goettingen, Germany Global R&T, Can & Specialties Plant Support Product Development Kennesaw, GA Global R&T Plant Support Product Development Technology Development Ulsan, Korea Global R&T Tech. Support Plant Support Product Development Sierre, Switzerland Global R&T, Automotive Plant Support Product Development 16
17 Novelis closed loop recycling ( mining-free Aluminum ) 1 Production closed loop 2 End-of-life closed loop 17
18 Evolution of recycling content at Novelis Recycled content at Novelis Percentage Long-term target of 80% recycled content for Novelis worldwide 33 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 18
19 Novelis Nachterstedt Aluminium Recycling Center Largest aluminum recycling facility in the world 400kT p.a. New technology to handle wide variety of scrap types will become the technology standard for future plants 19
20 How is Novelis Nachterstedt different? SHREDDING SORTING MELTING 20
21 The World s Largest Recycling Network casted 1.6 Mt in FY15 North America Oswego, NY Berea, KY Greensboro, GA Europe Nachterstedt, Germany Latchford, UK Norf, Germany Pieve, Italy Asia Yeongju, Korea Ulsan, Korea South America Pinda, Brazil 21
22 Novelis is investing world-wide to provide adequate auto capacity Novelis Global North America 420 Europe Asia production lines 2 lines recently completed (~240kt final output) 1 line in construction operational early CY2016 (~120kt) 3 production lines 2 lines in operation since > 10 years Nachterstedt line SOP mid-2015 on track (120kt) production line SOP 8/ e Novelis Automotive BiW capacity 2014 / 2016 (estimate), in kt 22
23 Novelis is serving its global customers from around the world Sauerland, Germany Norf, Germany Nachterstedt, Germany Berea, Kentucky Latchford, UK Oswego, New York Fairmont, W. Virginia Göttingen, Germany Pieve/Bresso, Italy Yeongju, S.Korea Ulsan, S. Korea Terre Haute, Indiana Logan, Kentucky Sierre, Switzerland Chanzhou, China Greensboro, Georgia Alcom, Malaysia Pinda, Brazil Automotive Packaging Building & construction Beverage can Consumer & Industrial 23
24
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