USAEE Meeting. Houston, TX. Presented by: George Lippman President of Lippman Consulting, Inc. (915)

Transcription

1 USAEE Meeting Houston, TX April 14, 2011 Presented by: George Lippman President of (915)

2 How Shales have changed U.S. Gas Supply But at what cost? Lower 48 States Production Major Shale Production Review Break-Even Economic Model

3 Lower 48 States Production

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5 Wellhead Production for the Gulf of Mexico Region Volumes in Bcf per day Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct

6 19.0 Wellhead Production for the Gulf Coast Region Volumes in Bcf per day Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct

7 13 12 Wellhead Production for the Rocky Mountain Region Volumes in Bcf per day Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11

8 19.5 Wellhead Production for the Mid-Continent Region Volumes in Bcf per day Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct Jan-06 Apr Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11

9 6.0 Wellhead Production for the Permian Region Volumes in Bcf per day Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11

10 6.0 Wellhead Production for the San Juan Region Volumes in Bcf per day Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11

11 6 Wellhead Production for the Eastern U.S. Region Volumes in Bcf per day Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct

12 Wellhead Production for the West Coast Region Volumes in Bcf per day

13 68 Wellhead Production for the Lower 48 States Volumes in Bcf per day Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul Volume up 8.8 Bcf Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan % Increase in 4 years Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct

14 United States Rig Count Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Yearly Avg

15 Major Shale Production

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17 20,000 Major Shale Production 18,000 16,000 14,000 1 Year up 5.5 Bcf/d ,000 10,000 8,000 4 Years up 14.4 Bcf/d 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Barnett Shale Woodford Fayetteville Haynesville Eagle Ford Marcellus

18 600 Total Horizontal Rigs in Haynesville, Barnett, Woodford, Eagleford, Fayetteville and Marcellus Shales Horizontal Rigs Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11

19 Shale Permits Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Additional Data Pending

20 Barnett Shale Permitted/Undeveloped Locations Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10

21 Eagle Ford Shale Permitted/Undeveloped Locations Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10

22 Next 5 years, production up 8.6 Bcf/d

23 Break-Even Economic Model

24 Source: Morgan Stanley

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27 La North Haynv Shale Core Wells First Delivered in Avg. First Month Rate-MMcf/day/well Avg Distribution by Decile (94 Wells in Sample)

28 Break Even Gas Price Top 30% Well with Land Cost $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 EAGLE FORD BARNETT - NORTH MARCELLUS FAYETTEVILLE BARNETT - CORE WOODFORD - ANADARKO BARNETT - SOUTH HAY - LOUIS - CORE HAY - LOUIS - N-CORE WOODFORD - ARKOMA HAYNESVILLE - TEXAS

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