Chlor-Alkali & Derivatives Markets

Transcription

1 Chlor-Alkali & Derivatives Markets PVC Committee Meeting at APIC 213 Taipei, 1 May 213 Charles Fryer

2 US GULF CAUSTIC SODA & CHLORINE PRICES $/Metric Ton 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Caustic Caustic Soda Soda Ex Ex Works Works Chlorine Chlorine Domestic Domestic

3 US GULF CAUSTIC SODA & CHLORINE PRICES $/Metric Ton 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, ECU Caustic Caustic Soda ECU Soda value value Ex Ex Works Works Chlorine Chlorine Domestic Domestic

4 COST of ECU on the US GULF $/Metric Ton ECU Production Cost Energy Cost of ECU (27mmBtu plus $3)

5 NATURAL GAS, CRUDE OIL & COAL PRICES $/mmbtu US Nat Gas $/mmbtu Oil $/mmbtu equivalent Coal $/mmbtu equivalent WE Nat Gas $/mmbtu equivalent

6 EFFECT OF ENERGY COST ON CASH COST OF PRODUCTION OF THE ECU (Metric) $/ECU Fuel oil basis Cell Type Diaphragm Mercury Membrane 4 3 Natural Gas at Source Coal in China Europe 2 1 Asia USA Middle East Includes evaporation of lye to 5% Energy Cost $/mmbtu

7 US PVC EXPORTS 1, Metric Tons 3,2 2,8 2,4 2, 1,6 1,

8 US GULF EXPORT CAUSTIC SODA & CHLORINE PRICES $/Metric Ton 1,2 1,1 1, Caustic Soda Chlorine Caustic Soda value FOB into Exported Gulf Coast EDC 1.38 x [EDC - (.285 x Ethylene) -2]

9 CYCLES IN CHLOR-ALKALI BUSINESS Chlorine Price High Higher = 5-6 month trend 2 3 Plant Utilisation Price Trend 1 Chlorine up, Caustic down Chlorine peak, Caustic up 3 Chlorine down, Caustic up 4 Chlorine down, Caustic peak 5 Lower 5 Chlorine trough, Caustic down Low Low High Caustic Soda Price

10 ASIAN CAUSTIC SODA & CHLORINE PRICES Caustic Soda Liquid Spot Export FOB Northeast Asia Chlorine value into Imported EDC 1.38 x [EDC - (.285 x Ethylene) -2] $/Metric Ton 6 1 Chlorine up, Caustic down 2 Chlorine peak, Caustic up Chlorine down, Caustic up 4 Chlorine down, Caustic peak 4 5 Chlorine trough, Caustic down

11 CHINESE CAUSTIC SODA & CHLORINE PRICES Rmb/Metric Ton (inc. VAT) 3,2 2,8 Caustic Caustic Soda Soda Liquid Liquid Market Market membrane membrane 2,4 2, 1,6 1,2 8 4 Chlorine Chlorine Liquid Liquid

12 CHINESE VALUE OF ECU $/Metric Ton/ECU ECU Value Cl NaOH Caustic Soda Liquid Market membrane Chlorine Liquid 3 2 All inc VAT

13 PRODUCTION ROUTES TO PVC Chlorine EDC EDC Direct Direct VCM VCM Furnace VCM Ethylene Air EDC EDC Oxy Oxy HCl PVC Chlorine Hydrogen Chlorine Burner Burner HCl Acetylene VCM VCM Reactor Reactor VCM Calcium Carbide Water Reactor Reactor PVC

14 EAST CHINA RAW MATERIAL PRICES Rmb/Ton (inc VAT) 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 Calcium Carbide HCl (1%) Liquid Chlorine 2, 1,5 1,

15 EAST CHINA COAL vs CALCIUM CARBIDE PRICES Rmb (inc VAT) 4,5 4, 3,5 3, Calcium Carbide Rmb/Ton Coal Rmb/2.5 Tons 2,5 2, 1,5 1,

16 PVC CASH COST COMPARISON IN CHINA $/Metric Ton 1,2 1, 8 Ethylene Based Acetylene Based East China Rmb price less VAT converted to US$

17 EAST CHINA PVC PRODUCTION COSTS (March 213) $/Ton (excl VAT) 1,2 Northeast Asia cfr International Supplies 1, Export Sales 8 6 Other costs Chlorine (.59) Price in E China ex works Other costs Chlorine (.62) + Hydrogen 4 Ethylene (.47) CaC 2 cost (1.45) 2 Ethylene + Chlorine Calcium Carbide + HCl

18 USA & CHINA CASH PVC PRODUCTION COSTS (March 213) $/Ton ( for China excl VAT) 1,2 1, Northeast Asia cfr International Supplies Export Sales fob Other costs Chlorine (.59) Ethylene (.47) Price in E China ex works Other costs Chlorine (.62) + Hydrogen CaC 2 cost (1.45) USA USA Ethylene at cash Ethylene contract cost ex Ethane; price + Chlorine Chlorine at spot spot price price CHINA Ethylene + Chlorine CHINA Calcium Carbide + HCl

19 PVC PRODUCTION COSTS vs CRUDE OIL PRICE $/Ton 1,5 Production cost of PVC-A (from calcium carbide) in E China (excl VAT), Mar 213 China can export PVC-A International PVC cash cost from ethylene ex naphtha cracker plus chlorine at ECU cost 2.1 1, International Price NE Asia - March Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl

20 CHINA PVC-A PRODUCTION GROSS MARGIN $/Ton 1,2 1, Acetylene Based (Cash Cost) Acetylene Based (Price ex. VAT) Difference between Acetylene Based Price (ex VAT) and Acetylene Based Cash Cost

21 CHINA PVC-E PRODUCTION GROSS MARGIN $/Ton 1,2 1, Ethylene Based PVC Cash Cost Ethylene Based PVC Price (excl. VAT) Difference between Ethylene Based Price (ex VAT) and Ethylene Based Cash Cost

22 CHINA PVC EXPORTS vs CRUDE OIL PRICE 1, Metric Tons $/bbl Brent Crude Oil PVC Exports

23 CRUDE OIL PRICE, ECU COST, CFBT, CHLORINE PRICE & CAUSTIC SODA PRICE RELATIONSHIP ECU $ Cost and Cash Flow Chlorine Price per ton $4 $3 $2 $1 $ CFBT% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % US Domestic Mar Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl Caustic Soda Price $/ton

24 SHOULD WE SELL LOW-PRICED EDC TO MAKE ADDITIONAL CAUSTIC SODA AVAILABLE FOR SALE? ECU $ Cost and Cash Flow CFBT% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % ECU $4 Chlorine Price per ton $3 $2 $1 $ -$1 2 1?! 2 1 US Export Mar Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl Caustic Soda Price $/ton

25 CONCLUSIONS The slump in building construction in the USA and Europe and the 212 slowdown in the Chinese economy led to weakened prices for vinyl chain products, worldwide, weak chlorine values and therefore high caustic soda prices BUT o Building construction is recovering in the USA o Asian caustic prices are now in decline, so o Chlorine values are likely to recover, then strengthening PVC prices Low-cost gas from shale has greatly strengthened the US competitive position for chemicals, particularly for vinyl products o US ethylene production costs from ethane are far lower than from naphthabased crackers widely used in Asia and Europe o US electrical power costs and hence the cost of the ECU are lower than for most other chlor-alkali producers o Hence US producers of EDC, VCM and PVC have a huge competitive advantage o US advantages will last for many years

26 CONCLUSIONS continued The traditional chlor-alkali cycle seems to have entered a causticweakening and chlorine-strengthening phase, at least in Asia. If there is economic improvement in 213 we can expect that worldwide: o Operating rates and chlorine values will rise o Caustic soda prices will decline Chinese PVC, largely acetylene-based, had lost competitiveness in based on high coal costs, but a decline in coal prices over the past 12 months is leading to better margins and rising export flows.

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