OIL MARKETS AND THEIR ANALYSIS IEA ENERGY TRAINING WEEK PARIS, APRIL 2013

Transcription

1 OIL MARKETS AND THEIR ANALYSIS IEA ENERGY TRAINING WEEK PARIS, APRIL 2013

2 A (VERY) BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE OIL INDUSTRY End consumers buy refined products (eg gasoline / diesel) Refineries buy crude oil to produce and sell products Non-OPEC produces as much crude as it economically can OPEC supplies the balance of the crude demanded (at a price) Disparities in prices for crude and products are closed by traders Trade flows form as a result to create a global oil market

3 UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM ONSHORE PRODUCTION FACILITY Oil UPSTREAM Gas OFFSHORE PLATFORM LNG LIQUEFICATION PLANT LNG REGASIFICATIO N TERMINAL POWER STATION Gas OIL SANDS Oil REFINERY GAS TO LIQUIDS PLANT BIOFUELS PLANT WIND TURBINES Energy for industrial and domestic use Bitumen UPGRADER PLANT Synthetic crude oil Fuels, lubricants and speciality products including Bitumen and liquefied petroleum gas Feedstock CHEMICAL PLANT DOWNSTREAM Petrochemicals used for plastics, Coatings and detergents

4 Maya Arab Heavy Arab Light Brent A.Condensate % mass CRUDE IT S NOT JUST BRENT There are more than 700 named crude oils globally Simple Product Yield on Crude 100 No two crudes are the same Many crudes are a mix from different fields About 900 kbd (~1%) of crude oil is burned directly; the rest is processed in a refinery Every crude is a soup of an enormous variety of molecules, which differ in chemical and physical properties LPG Light Naphtha PF Naphtha Kero Gasoil Vacuum Gasoil Short Residue Refineries separate the molecules first on boiling point

5 HOW DOES AN OIL REFINERY WORK?

6 REFINERY CONFIGURATIONS Volume (of products produced as % of crude intake) 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% LPG Gasoline Naphtha Jet Gasoil Fuel oil Special Product Coke Natgas Vol loss 0.0% ANS Coking WTS Coking Brent Complex Arab Light Complex

7 MAIN PROCESSES IN A REFINERY Separation e.g distillation separates crude oil into different refinery streams Cracking - breaks large molecules into smaller ones e.g. a cat cracker or hydrocracker Reshaping changes configuration of individual molecules, e.g. catalytic reforming Treatment ensures all fuels & waste streams meet current regulations and standards Blending merges streams to produce final products to meet current specifications

8 $ REFINERY MARGIN HOW DOES IT WORK? The Price of each product is assessed by the market and can be higher or lower than the crude price (usually the heavier the cheaper) REFINERY MARGIN CALCULATION $/bbl Gasoline - Brent Gasoil - Brent Fueloil - Brent Crude & Freight Cost Jan- 07 Apr- 07 Jul- 07 Oct- 07 Jan- 08 Apr- 08 Jul- 08 Oct- 08 Jan- 09 Apr- 09 Jul- 09 Oct- 09 Jan- 10 Apr- 10 Product values Variable Operating Costs Gross Refinery Margin Fixed Operating Costs Net Refinery Margin

9 TRADERS ENSURE BALANCING OF ARBITRAGES IN TIME, QUALITY AND LOCATION TO CREATE A GLOBAL MARKET Thicker arrow denotes higher product flow Gasoline Jet+Kero GO+Diesel

10 SIMPLE LOCATION ARBITRAGE EXAMPLE Price disparities exist between different markets If cost of moving the product is less than the disparity, then an arbitrage opportunity exists Hedging is used to lock in the profit and remove most risk from subsequent price movements Crude A Price NW Europe Price US Gulf Current Freight Arbitrage profit $100/bbl $103/bbl $2.5/bbl $0.5/bbl x 1mln bbls = $0.5mln

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12 OIL MARKETS ANALYSIS IS THE INVESTIGATION OF MARKET FUNDAMENTALS Demand Macroeconomics Seasonality Weather Product stock levels Storage costs Product prices Interfuel switching Refinery availability Supply Geopolitics Non-OPEC production OPEC production Crude stock levels Shipping availability Imports / exports Infrastructure / supply flexibility Risk of supply disruption The goal is to determine the relative values of crude grades and refined products to various market participants

13 FUNDAMENTAL AS DISTINCT FROM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

14 IN ADDITION TO THEIR CORE PURPOSE OF SUPPLY SECURITY, THE IEA PLAYS A NUMBER OF PIVOTAL ROLES Statistical Division: Along with their JODI partners, the IEA are the arbiters of the truth in terms of historic market data Without initiatives created by IEA, this level of data would quite simply not exist or be publically available Oil & Industry Markets Division: A critical commentator on the forward market outlook Products like the OMR and MTOMR are extremely widely distributed and analysed by market participants TRANSPARENCY IS KEY TO UNDERSTANDING

15 Q & A