Surface Water Flooding
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1 Surface Water Flooding Nick Reynard Science Area Leader: Natural Hazards CEH Wallingford Contributions from: Bob Moore, Steve Cole, Joint COST - WssTP Strategic Conference, 17 April 2013
2 CEH RESEARCH ON HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES One of the world s leading centres for flood research Flood Estimation Flood Studies Report (1975) Flood Estimation Handbook (1999) Flood forecasting Seasonal prediction Climate Change Nationwide modelling Research to underpin policy Boscastle, Devon, August 2004 BIS Foresight Flooding (2004, 2008, US and China) Pitt Review (Science and Engineering Panel)
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4 In scope for UK NHP Resilience Natural Hazards Fast tracking world class science into services Timescales of 0-5 years UK and in those countries affecting UK citizens Governments and responder community Public good Non commercial
5 Achievements to date Improved cross-working: more joined-up scientific advice and analysis. Provision of single source of daily hazard assessment. New level of scientific expert challenge to the UK NRA. The provision of prepared scientific advice packs for all emergency responders. Development of the Hazard Impact Model (HIM)
6 What is the HIM (Hazard Impact Model)? Underpinning framework enabling cross-agency working to develop impact models for specific hazards. Deliver more targeted risk assessments to government and resilience community Work Packages and leads: Surface Water Flooding Land Instability Wind Impact and Vulnerability Centre for Ecology and Hydrology British Geological Survey UK Met Office Science Advisor: Ken Mylne (Met Office) UK Health and Safety Lab
7 Quantification of hazard impacts How many homes, businesses, critical infrastructure could be affected by surface water flooding? Hazard Impact Model will: provide longer lead times and better intelligence for Emergency Services, Local Authorities, Health Protection and Environment Agencies, Utilities and Transport help improve resilience and reduce impact of hazards, including loss of life
8 Surface Water Flooding Surface Water Flooding (SWF) Major hazard with ~4 million properties at risk in England alone (EA, 2009) Summer 2007 floods 3 billion insurance payouts 55,000 properties flooded, ~36,000 due to SWF National infrastructure impacts 140,000 homes without clean water for 17 days 42,000 homes without power for 24 hours 10,000 people trapped on M5 Pitt Review recommendations on improving SWF alert capability Flood Forecasting Centre & Scottish Flood Forecasting Service formed
9 Surface Water Flooding Alerts: Approaches Rainfall based alerts (current practice) Extreme Rainfall Alert. Uses national rainfall-thresholds Feeds in to Flood Forecasting Centre daily Flood Guidance Statement Localised runoff thresholds (ongoing HIM developments) G2G distributed hydrological model converts rainfall to runoff G2G soil moisture conditions influence surface runoff production Scientific advances to improve national SWF hazard footprint G2G already used by Flood Forecasting Centre New impact information (ongoing HIM developments) Use national datasets on property, infrastructure & population Potential for real-time hazard and impact forecasts
10 G2G runoff alerts for surface flooding Extreme Rainfall Alerts (ERA) National rainfall-threshold based method Based on FEH 30 year return period rainfalls averaged across 8 UK cities 1h radar rainfall totals >30mm >25mm G2G runoff production affected by: Rainfall amount plus Urban/suburban coverage Soil and geology properties Antecedent soil moisture conditions Prototype runoff threshold exceedances seem more targeted 1h runoff totals >8.5mm >7mm
11 SWF Case Study: rainfall vs surface-runoff 1h rainfall totals >30mm >25mm Rainfall (15 min, mm) 17:00 18:00 Thorne Thorne ERA Threshold Crossed ERA Threshold Not Crossed 1h runoff totals >8.5mm >7mm G2G runoff (15 min, mm) Thorne Thorne G2G Threshold Not Crossed 17:00 G2G Threshold Crossed 18:00 G2G SMD (15 min, mm) SMD recovers Heavy rain Low runoff % Pixel becomes saturated Moderate rain High runoff % Saturated
12 G2G surface flooding impact alerts How to map from G2G Hazard Footprint to Impact? 15:00 16:00 York 1h runoff totals >8.5mm >7mm Goole 17:00 18:00 Goole Thorne
13 G2G surface flooding impact alerts York How to map from G2G Hazard Footprint to Impact? 15:00 16:00 Number of houses? EA National Receptors Database 1h runoff totals >8.5mm >7mm 17:00 Goole 18:00 IMPACT? Goole Thorne
14 G2G surface flooding impact alerts York How to map from G2G Hazard Footprint to Impact? 15:00 16:00 Number of vulnerable people? HSL National Population Database 1h runoff totals >8.5mm >7mm 17:00 Goole 18:00 IMPACT? Goole Thorne
15 Next steps Targeted improvements to G2G formulation Runoff-production, urban hydrology,... Use of latest Met Office rainfall forecast products High-resolution deterministic and probabilistic products Mapping of surface water flooding impacts (with HSL) Aim to move from static to dynamic maps of hazard and impact Potential areas are people, property, transport, infrastructure,... Further case studies and validation (where possible!) Historical surface water flooding data scarce and sporadic Link to other initiatives, e.g. Hazard Impact Database
16 Surface Water Flooding Nick Reynard Science Area Leader: Natural Hazards CEH Wallingford Contributions from: Bob Moore, Steve Cole, Joint COST - WssTP Strategic Conference, 17 April 2013
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