Global Flood Alert System (GFAS)

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Clifford McGee
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1 An Introduction of Global Flood Alert System (GFAS) Kazuo UMEDA Director of 2 nd Research Department, Infrastructure Development Institute-JAPAN

2 Target: Reduction of Human Loss World s s natural disaster ( ) Total Death Toll: (about 470,000 people) Source: EM-DAT, CRED Total Economic Loss: (about 49 billion. US$) Tidal waves/tsunami 49% Floods 20% Earthquakes 16%

3 Measures to Reduce Human Loss Structural Measures: Levee, Flood Control Dam, Flood Way Retarding Basin, etc. Non-structural Measures: 1. In Emergency (Early Warning System) - Flood Forecasting - Flood Warning - Evacuation Advice/Order 2. In Normal Time - Flood Hazard Map - Flood Fighting Drill, Flood Hazard Map

In Emergency (Early Warning System) - Flood Forecasting - Flood Warning -

4 Scheme of GFAS Rainfall information Observation Satellites Heavy rainfall around In the XX river basin Data Obtainment Data processing Data Dissemination IDI-Japan System Development River 1. IFNet Homepage: Map(Heavy Rain Area), Mesh Data 2. Delivery of Heavy Rain: to IFNet members in charge of Flood Forecasting and Warning Around the downstream of river Flood Forecasting and Warning by GFAS Information

IFNet Homepage: Map(Heavy Rain Area), Mesh Data 2.

5 1. Collaboration with i) Space Agencies as rainfall data provider ii) IDI as rainfall analyzer, system developer, alerting information provider iii) IFNet as transmission network iv) Hydrological Services, River Authorities 2. Objectives System Concept of GFAS in charge of flood forecasting and warning - Practical Use for FEW system - Raising awareness of the importance of FEW

iv) Hydrological Services, River Authorities 2.

6 Expectations for Satellite Rainfall To improve accuracy and complement the current flood forecasting system (by ground rainfall observation and radar observation) Flood forecasting for the following conditions: 1. Large river basins (where even daily and less dense data could be informative) 2. Without any telemetry systems 3. Trans-boundary rivers where prompt data transmission between countries is difficult.

conditions: 1. Large river basins (where even daily and less dense data could be informative) 2.

7 1 st Phase of Information Delivery in 2006 Objective: Satellite Data Verification for Flood Forecasting (comparison with ground rain-gage data) Data source: NASA (3B42RT) Quasi Real-Time of Every 3 Hours Observed by TRMM and others Outputs: 1. Daily Rainfall Map and Rainfall Data in text (0.25 deg. grid in the band deg. longitude, N-S N S latitude) 2. Probability Daily Rainfall (1/5, 1/10 return periods) 3. Indication of Heavy Rain Area (area of over a certain probability) 4. Delivery of Heavy Rainfall Notice on Request Delivery: Early 2006 through IFNet Website/

25 deg. grid in the band 0-3600 deg. longitude, 60-60 N-S N S latitude) 2. Probability Daily Rainfall (1/5, 1/10 return periods) 3.

8 1. Daily Rainfall Map and Rainfall Data in text Daily Rainfall Map 0.25 deg. grid in the band deg. longitude, N-S N S latitude, with global and regional enlarged view Daily Rainfall Data in text 0.25 deg. grid in the band deg. longitude, N-S N S latitude

longitude, 60-60 N-S N S latitude, with global and regional enlarged

9 2. Probability analysis for daily rainfall Note: This is a sample map showing 5 year return period rainfall of N-S, but the real map will show in the band of N-S. Map showing 5 year and 10 year return period of daily precipitation Accumulated data for calculation: TRMM 3B42( ) 2001), 3B42RT( )

10 3. Indication of Heavy Rain Area Map showing areas exceeding 5 year and 10 year return period daily precipitation Note: This is a sample map showing areas exceeding 5 year return period rainfall Was observed. Rainfall Areas Areas exceeding 1/5 return period Rainfall Accumulated data for calculation: TRMM 3B42( ) 2001), 3B42RT( )

11 Enlarged maps for 9 Regions Europe& North Africa Middle East South Africa South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia North America South America Oceania Regional Map Sample (South Africa)

12 4. Delivery of Heavy Rainfall Notice on Request Sending notice s e to registered agencies when a rainfall over certain threshold is observed. SAMPLE 1: Heavy rain information to ZZ basin. At least in a grid (about 600km2), a rainfall which exceeds 5 year return period was observed. Please check it on IFNet website! SAMPLE 2: Heavy rain information to ZZ basin. Mean basin precipitation* of YY mm/day, which exceeds 5 year return period rain, was observed. Please check it on IFNet website! * Currently, we can calculate the mean basin precipitation in typical 60 basins.

Please check it on IFNet website! http://xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx E-mail SAMPLE 2: Heavy rain information to ZZ basin.

13 Optimization of GFAS after delivery 1. Verification of Satellite Rainfall Verification of Satellite Rainfall by comparing with ground rain-gage Rainfall Return Period of 1/5, 1/10 by adding more data 2. Response to User s s Needs More enlarged maps for a single river basin Other rainfall period than daily (half day, 2 days, 3 days etc.) Other return period than 1/5, 1/10 (2 years, 30 years etc.) Other criteria for sending e (number and place of grid exceeding certain probability, etc.)

Period of 1/5, 1/10 by adding more data 2.

14 Visions for the Future 1. Establishment of an Operation Center For the multidisciplinary utilization of GFAS information 2. Run-off Analysis Prediction of when and how much of peak flood discharge will be (transformation into water lever, inundation area by flooding analysis) alysis) 3. Improved Applicability for Middle/Small Rivers Smaller mesh, frequent data less than every 3 hours (Expectations for Space Agencies)

Run-off Analysis Prediction of when and how much of peak flood discharge will be (transformation into

15 Visions for the Future (2) Precipitation Land covering data Runoff calculation Probable inundated area WATE R LEVE L 水位 TIME 時間 A runoff calculation is performed using data through GPM after runoff model based on global mapping data is developed. This calculation will make it possible to forecast not only discharge and water level but also inundating state of flood at representative spots. The forecasting result obtained through runoff calculation will be use to flood alert system as well as various water managements such as flood control and water resources management. Water Resources Management Flood Control Management Flood Alert System

This calculation will make it possible to forecast not only discharge and water level but also inundating state of flood at representative spots.

16 Thank You IFNet Secretariat c/o Infrastructure Development Institute (IDI)-Japan Kojimachi, Chiyodaku, Tokyo, JAPAN Tel: Fax: info@internationalfloodnetwork nternationalfloodnetwork.org nternationalfloodnetwork.org

International Flood Network

International Flood Network Flood Devastation Increasing Floods are natural phenomena caused by rain, but flood damage is influenced by various social as well as natural factors. The scale and form of