Symposium on Climate Risk Management

Transcription

1 Symposium on Climate Risk Management Guayaquil, Ecuador 10 th 12 th October 2011 Session 2: Background and Objectives Deborah Hemming Met Office Hadley Centre

2 Weather / Climate impacts on all sectors and locations Water Agriculture Health ANDP Power MAIL Weather / Climate Transport D.R.R. Security Politics

3 And therefore impacts all aspects of society

4 Global network of weather & climate observations Good standards and methods for making measurements Global weather & climate models World wise system for sharing meteorological observations to provide global forecasts Collaboration is the Key WMO EUMETSAT ICAO

5 Global weather centres provide weather products, including in the form of probabilities; Cascading weather Information for Disaster Management Regional centres interpret information, prepare guidance forecasts for NMHSs, run limited area models to refine products NMHSs issue alerts and warnings to Disaster Management and public

6 Case study: Seasonal forecasts for Volta River, Ghana Seasonal rainfall forecasting for improved hydro electric power generation in Ghana (Volta River Authority) Benefits: Improved energy prediction Risk based decision making More efficient operations Study to assess impact of improved rainfall forecasting on reservoir management operations at Akosombo hydroelectric dam. Skilful tailored forecasting system now used in operational decision making Limit of catchment Lake Volta Crown copyright Met Office Akosombo dam: 1000MWatt Hydro-plant

7 ernment response to ase the spending on management and flood nces by 200 million to million by Summer 2007 floods UK Precipitation and river flow forecasts not effectively joined up Britain's wettest May July since records began (in th July many places over 100 mm rainfall in 24 hrs One months rainfall in 24 hrs All Hazards Facility Paul Davies The Environmen and the Met Offi work together, th joint centre, to im technical capabil forecast, model a against all source flooding.

8 Flood Forecasting Centre The Environment Agency and the Met Office should work together, through a joint centre, to improve their technical capability to forecast, model and warn against all sources of flooding.

9 Hazard Centre and Natural Hazards Partnership

10 Pakistan floods began late July 2010 record breaking high rainfall amounts Deadliest floods in decades decimated portions of Northwest Pakistan Crown copyright E: uk Approx 2 million people affected Near 2,000 people killed 20% of land area of Pakistan underwater 69,000km2 of fertile cropland lost 5.3 million jobs lost GDP growth +4% before, 2% after Over 200mm rainfall between 27 th 30 th July

11 WMO Report on Pakistan Floods b. Views of stakeholders on flood forecasting and warning services It was found that in general flood forecasts issued by PMD were duly transmitted to the respective Government authorities and departments. All the authorities/organizations participating in the coordination meeting commended the timely issuance of early warning advisories and relevant information on possible floods by PMD Most of the stakeholders attributed the relatively small number of deaths by this exceptional flood to the good forecasting services provided by PMD and on the ground response to the warnings. Nevertheless, many of these stakeholders considered that the number of deaths as well as damage could have been much reduced, had the services been improved in time to support more effective decision making on disaster risk management. These stakeholders also recognized several important gaps in the translation of flood forecasts into flood warnings and ultimately DRR actions at most of the levels, especially at the local level Several stakeholders expressed their appreciation to PMD for the timely assessment of needs for improvement in the services provided and were well aware of the findings of PMD on the role of the convergence of the two weather systems in the occurrence of the exceptional rainfalls and also the persisting climatic conditions that prolonged the flooding. These stakeholders recognized the importance of this new knowledge in the improvement of not only flood forecasting services but also in the management of water resources in the country to cope with both floods and drought, especially for operations of major reservoirs including the Tarbela and Mangla Dams.

12 Overarching aim of the symposium To help providers and users of climate variability and change information to use this information effectively, to minimize climate related risks maximize opportunities

13 Structure of the symposium Monday 10 th Tuesday 11 th Wednesday 12 th I. Opening welcome II. Background and objectives III. Global and regional climate risk IV. Managing climate risks and opportunities in agriculture, health and water sectors V. Breakout groups by sector VI. Breakout groups by cross cutting issues VII. Reports of breakout groups and plenary discussion VIII. Closing

14 Objectives of the symposium 1. Define a concept of Climate Risk Management (CRM) pertinent to WMO and partnering agencies 2. Identify and assess existing weather & CRM techniques 3. Identify challenges to CRM and adaptation 4. Identify best practices in CRM 5. Identify weather/climate/water/environmental requirements to improve CRM 6. Develop recommendations for WMO members to adopt and facilitate effective & operational risk management

15 Expectations of this session 1. Define a concept of Climate Risk Management pertinent to WMO and partnering agencies to underpin implementation and operation of the global framework for climate services (GFCS) Discussion groups of approx 10 people

16 Enjoy your coffee!

17 Key issues with defining CRM setting the stage Defining Risk many different definitions risk refers to the expected losses from a particular hazard to a specified element at risk in a particular future time period UNDP commonly defined as the product of the probability or likelihood of occurrence of a consequence UKCIP Risk combines the magnitude of an impact with the probability of occurrence IPCC combination of the likelihood of an occurrence and the consequence of that occurrence AGO

18 Typically risk is a combination of Hazard and Vulnerability Risk = f(hazard, Vulnerability) Hazard is a measure of the probability and magnitude of weather and climate events. E.g.: Flood Cyclone Drought Probability MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY LOW LOW MEDIUM Magnitude

19 Vulnerability is a combination of exposure, resilience and adaptive capacity. It is measured using social, economic, and infrastructure variables. Risk = f(hazard, Vulnerability)

20 Examples of risk management frameworks Australian and New Zealand standard UK Met Office Climate Impacts & Risk assessment Framework

21 Better integration of user needs with weather/climate science to enable effective CRM Effective Communication Tailored product generation Strengthen regional and national capacity to forecast

22 Define a concept of CRM pertinent to WMO and partnering agencies 1. How should we define Climate Risk? 2. What are the key steps required for effective Climate Risk Management? e.g... Stakeholder requirements Current climate risk (baseline) Future climate risks and opportunities Adaptation guidance Appropriate communications Monitoring, feedback and refinements

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