WxFUSION. A. Tafferner. Folie 1. iport Meeting DLR OP

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1 WxFUSION A. Tafferner iport Meeting DLR OP Folie 1

2 Upper Danube Catchment MUC DLR Andechs Munich Vienna Folie 2

3 Local and propagating thunderstorms in the Upper Danube Catchment B. Barternschlager, 1997; Hagen, Bartenschlager and Finke, 1999 Folie 3

4 DONAR domain UTC Folie 4

5 Kappl - Nederle, Vorarlberg, Austria, Folie 6

6 THUNDERSTORMS ARE A SAFETY ISSUE FOR SEVERAL REASONS wind shear & turbulence lightning stroke hail icing heavy rain visibility Folie 7

7 Cb-TRAM THUNDERSTORM TRACKING AND MONITORING (DLR) Detection of convection by combination of Meteosat channels HRV, IR 10.8, IR 12.0, WV 6.2 m 3 development stages: initiation (yellow) rapid growth (orange) mature (red contours) 15/30 min nowcast (white) Meteosat HRV image with CB-TRAM cells for 4 July UTC Folie 8

8 Mallorca storm 4 October 2007 Folie 9

9 Mallorca storm 4 October 2007 Folie 10

10 A319 near Catania on Oct 1st 2009: Encounter of severe turbulence and hail Nose Damage (Photo: ATRDRIVER) Folie 12

11 Estimated a/c path from report M Probable region of hail encounter A/C position at 1745 UT A/C position at 1753 UT 1455 Z Folie 13

12 M A/C position at 1745 UT A/C position at 1753 UT 1155 Z Folie 14

13 9 May 2009, 1755 UT M A/C position Folie 15

14 9 May 2009, 1800 UT M A/C position New convective cell Folie 16

15 9 May 2009, 1805 UT M New convective cell Folie 17

16 M A/C position at 1745 UT A/C position at 1753 UT Vertical section through the radar reflectivity field as gained from the Türkheim radar at about 1748 UT along the flight path (pink line). Aircraft positions marked for 1751 and 1757 UTC Folie 18

17 FUSION OF SATELLITE DATA WITH OTHER DATA FLYSAFE Project: CB WIMS (DLR, MeteoFrance, UKMetOffice, UniHannover, ONERA) Representation of a thunderstorm by hazard volumes Cb top volumes: convective turbulence, lightning Cb bottom volumes: hail, icing, lightning, heavy rain, wind shear, turbulence Folie 19

18 CB WIMS object attributes delivered in GML/XML files Area covered, as a polygon Layer (top or bottom) Upper boundary Lower boundary Moving direction Moving speed Gravity centre location Severity level (moderate, severe) Trend on area Trend on vertical development Hail occurrence flag Confidence level Nowcasts every 5 minutes up to 30 minutes, + 45 and 60 minutes Folie 20

19 Cb weather object Satellit: Cb-TRAM Combined Object Radar: Rad-TRAM Folie 22

20 Weather Forecast User-oriented System Including Object Nowcasting Cloud tracker Radar tracker Lightning Surface Analysis POLDIRAD User-specified Target Weather Object TWO in Fusion out TWO Initiation Track Nowcast Forecast Object Comparison SYNSAT COSMO-DE & Ensemble Forecasts COSMOairport Local forecasting SYNRAD SYNPOLRAD Folie 23

21 WxFUSION: Realtime Mode with automatic update + + Folie 25

22 WxFUSION GUI: using fuzzy logic to determine Cb intensity + Folie 26

23 WxFUSION GUI: Selection of best forecast Folie 27

24 WxFUSION: Nowcast validation + Folie 28

25 WxFUSION 6: Forecasting: COSMOairport Aim Analyse and forecast atmospheric state in TMA as good as possible through high resolution modeling and local data assimilation. Advantage COSMOairport 1- hour assimilation/forecast cycle Frequent output (10 min) Assimilation of most recent observations from Radar, SYNOP, AMDAR, SODAR/RASS Optimized lower boundary data: landuse, soil Small domain - fast execution Folie 29

26 WxFUSION 6: Forecasting: COSMOairport (t a ) (t a +1h) (t a +2h) (t a ) local data real time local data COSMO-EU Initial & boundary Time DATA ASSIMILATION forecast O U T P U T DATA ASSIMILATION COSMOairport DATA ASSIMILATION forecast Boundary data from COSMO-EU Boundary plus assimilated data; Initial data: Restart or NewStart DATA ASSIMILATION forecast Nudging of local data Folie 30

27 Summary WxFUSION - Development: 1. Nowcasting: Cb-TRAM, Rad-TRAM, Li-TRAM 2. Best forecast selection 3. Life cycle studies --> Trend forecast 4. Fuzzy Nowcasting beyond 60 minutes 5. Combination Nowcast/Forecast up to 6 (12) Studen Forecasting: COSMOairport Folie 32