ICAO Developments (Hazardous Weather Information)

Transcription

1 ICAO Developments (Hazardous Weather Information)

2 USER NEEDS AND EXPECTATION

3 IATA s viewpoint Harmonized information about hazardous meteorological conditions that may constrain operations along intended flight routes and across FIRs Expressed concern over safe operation in areas where such information is rarely or not consistently available Lack of coordination leading to inconsistent information across FIR boundaries

4 IFALPA - Higher accuracy and granularity

5 HOW BAD IS THE CURRENT SITUATION, REALLY?

6 SIGMET vs Satellite picture

7 How is our region doing? Original SIGMET content Satellite IR deep convection product Graphical presentation of the SIGMET s coverage Current time of the map display Timelines of each and every SIGMET s valid times All SIGMETs remain valid at the current time are highlighted in yellow

8 Some issue, some don t

9 Different Size of Convection before SIGMET VTTB SIGMET issued issued by MWOs Lapsed after convection dissipated

10 6 May 2016 (different treatment by different MWOs) The areas agreed well

11 6 May 2016 (different treatment by different MWOs) 14 WSSR20 WSSS WSJC SIGMET 1 VALID / WSSS- WSJC SINGAPORE FIR EMBD TS FCST SE OF LINE N0515 E N0330 E108 INTSF= Issue times differ, and forecast development not the same 17 WSMS31 WMKK WBFC SIGMET B02 VALID / WBKK- WBFC KOTA KINABALU FIR EMBD TS OBS N OF N0145 AND W OF E11245 MOV W NC=

12 6 May 2016 (different treatment by different MWOs) 1 hour later, the system weakened quickly and one MWO cancelled the SIGMET

13 6 May 2016 until 0840Z The other MWO allowed the SIGMET to lapse instead

14 Observations For the same or at least closely related phenomena some issue SIGMET, some don t, some issue later some covers larger area, some smaller Whole range of differences in area / timing / development

15 Problem of current SIGMETs as a whole Phenomena may cover several FIRs Issued by MWOs independently Interpretation/forecast of the same phenomena varies from one MWO to other MWO(s) Differences in intensity, coverage, forecast position, development and timings needs to be addressed

16 It is only when we take out the satellite image

17 One realized how misleading to the big picture these SIGMETs could be, and why pilot/iata is so vocal

18 HONG KONG EXPERIENCE

19 New product - Himawari-8 Composite image ( List of images - True colour, - Natural colour, - Airmass, - Ash, - Dust, - Severe Storm, - Night Microphysics - Convective Cloud - Day Convective Storm - Cloud Phase - Day cloud phase Data from JMA via HimawariCloud update at 10-min Projections: x1p, x2m (replacement of x2p), x4m and x8m Useful images for rain and TC monitoring: Severe Storm, Convective cloud, Day Convective Storm, Cloud Phase, Day Cloud Phase

20 Automatic alerts on radar workstations THUNDER_TMS THUNDER_TCR Based on the CAPPI reflectivity product 'R_010_256 Echo at altitude of 1 km, with rainfall rate 50 mm/hr 10 dbz TOPS 6 km in height Echo area 50 km 2 Warning ellipses marked with T TSZ45_TMS TSZ45_TCR Based on 20 dbz and 45 dbz echo top product 20 dbz TOPS 8 km in height 45 dbz TOPS 4 km in height Echo area 4 km 2 Warning ellipses marked with T AMBER_TMS AMBER_TCR (WARN and TRACK products also overlaid) Based on the CAPPI reflectivity product 'R_010_256 Echo area 25 km 2 Rainfall 20 mm/hr WARN product ellipses marked with A TRACK product in the form of arrow, showing forecast echo position an hour later HAIL_TMS HAIL_TC Altitude of echo with reflectivity of 60 dbz or more 3km Area of echo with reflectivity of 60 dbz or more 5 km 2 Warning ellipses marked with HAIL

21 Aviation Thunderstorm Nowcasting System (ATNS) Specific Forecast for waypoints 0-1 hour Semi-Lagrangian extrapolation scheme (LE)

22 WAFS product as reference

23 Verification of WAFS CAT product

24 Simulated Radar Reflectivity (T+8)

25 Aviation-specific product from Regional NWP model Turbulence (EDR) forecast

26 SIGMET preparation

27 CB/TS SIGMET verification