Nowcasting: analysis and up to 6 hours forecast

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Buck Wilkinson
8 years ago
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1 Nowcasting: analysis and up to 6 hours forecast Very high resoultion in time and space Better than NWP Rapid update Application oriented NWP problems for 0 6 forecast: Incomplete physics Resolution space and time Data assmilation, spin up

Application oriented NWP problems for 0 6 forecast:

2 INCA: Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis NWP forecasts Geoinformation data Surface observations INCA Data QC, Integration, Optimisation Radiosonde Satellite obsercations Radar observations Analyses and Nowcasting

observations INCA Data QC, Integration, Optimisation

3 Key requirments for INCA An operational nowcasting model: Straightforward with quality Efficient, stable, easy to maintain application oriented 1 Analysis Weight Nowcasting h -15 min +00 h ALADIN ECMWF +06 h +55 bis +67 h +72 h Lead time

maintain application oriented 1 Analysis Weight Nowcasting 0

4 INCA system overview Observations NWP (e.g. ALADIN) Weighting INCA forecast Trilinear interpolation Weighting Observation corrections First guess INCA nowcast IDW interpolation SL advection Correction field Corrected field =INCA = analysis Motion vectors ANALYSIS FORECAST

Observation corrections First guess INCA nowcast IDW interpolation

5 Domain and Topography INCA AT Domain size 600 x 350 km Elevation range m Resolution Horizontal: 1 km Vertical: 150 m Time: 15 min 1h Update frequency 5 min 1h Availability + 20 min +30 min

6 INCA precipitation analysis

7 INCA forecast & analysis: wind, temperature, snowline,..

8 INCA forecast & analysis: and many other variables Cloud analysis Wind gust Road temperature Precip type Icing potential Global radiation Visibility Snowfall Snow/Rain mix Rain Freezing rain Convective index

type Icing potential Global radiation Visibility

9 INCA & ensemble prediction Every 5min, very high resolution 1km + Precipitation forecast 1 Precipitation forecast 2 Precipitation forecast. 3.. Precipitation forecast n INCA: flash flood Limit precipitation exceeded? Hydrological simulation Set of n hydrological forecast Evaluation 3 5 Continue in following time step Warning issued + - Issue warning? 4

. Precipitation forecast n INCA: flash flood 1 2 + - Limit precipitation exceeded?

10 INCA: landslide warning Identification of regions with high disposition Slope Exposition Geotechnical structure Creeks history Analyse and forecast of extrem weather (INCA) Precipitation (1km, 15min) Temperature Hydrological variables Fusion of geo related data Estimation of stability Identification of hazard zones Activating Thunderstorm Several days lasting rainfall Snow melting Warning

(1km, 15min) Temperature Hydrological variables Fusion of geo related data Estimation of

11 INCA: civil protection Automatic warnings for civil protection and for the general public Gust monitor Neusiedler lake Severe weather warnings

12 INCA CE: Nowcasting for Central Europe Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Security Center Burgenland Provincial Government of Lower Austria - Fire Brigade and Civil Protection National Crisis and Disaster Management and Civil Protection Provincial Government of Lower Austria - Road Maintenance Czech Hydrometeorological Institute Fraunhofer-Institute of Optronics, System Technologies and Image Exploitation Hungarian Meteorological Service Disaster Management Directorate of Somogy County Regional Agency for Environmental Protection 8 EU countries; 16 partners, Funding: 3.3 m EURO Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute Ministry of Interior of the Slovak Republic Environmental Agency of the republic of Slovenia CGS plus d.o.o. Innovative IT and Environmental Technologies Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Department for Crisis Management Poland

Technologies and Image Exploitation Hungarian Meteorological Service Disaster Management Directorate of Somogy County Regional Agency for Environmental Protection 8 EU countries; 16 partners,

13 INCA CE project concept Building bridge between nowcasting and crisis management Feedback Communication Development Optimisation Translation Implementation Integration Evaluation Training Weather Services Public Authorities

Development Optimisation Translation Implementation

14 INCA: from Central European to Global A Forecast Demonstration Project of World Meteorological Organization (WMO), World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Integrating Nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational framework

Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Integrating Nowcasting with

15 INCA: global player in nowcasting A state of the art, very high resolution in time and space, application oriented, real time analysis and nowcasting system INCA Operational implementation at each partner Common efforts on research and maintainence

time analysis and nowcasting system INCA Operational

16 Summary In the recent years, ZAMG and their partners have developed regional ensemble system ALADIN LAEF. ALADIN LAEF provides encouraging results and is used in LACE. INCA is a major global player in nowcasting, it can provide reliable results and is widely used in many application areas.

ALADIN LAEF provides encouraging results and is used in LACE.

17 THANKS!

BECAUSE WEATHER MATTERS UBIMET

BECAUSE WEATHER MATTERS UBIMET UBIMET Weather Information and Alert Systems for Railroads UBIMET because weather matters One of the largest private weather services in Europe Provides severe weather warnings for more than 1 million