DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

Transcription

1 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE Prepared by the Business Services Department of the Park Hill School District & Business Information Services, LLC March 2014

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3 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District March, Board of Education Members President Susan Newburger Vice President Boon Lee Treasurer Chris Seufert Member Janice Bolin Member - Todd Fane Member Matt Pepper Member Allison Wurst Prepared by the Business Services Department of the Park Hill School District and Business Information Services, LLC This document is available for download at District Information Demographic Profile 1

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5 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 5 INTRODUCTION... 7 About The Demographic Profile... 7 About The Park Hill School District... 8 District Geography... 8 District Municipalities... 9 District Maps... 9 Map Of Area School Districts Map Of Park Hill School District Municpalities Aerial Overview Map Of Park Hill School District Zip Codes within Park Hill School District Boundaries Map Of Park Hill School District Boundaries Demographic Comparisons Benchmark School Districts Benchmark Population Data Benchmark Enrollment Data Benchmark Demographic Data Benchmark School Finance Data STUDENT ENROLLMENT Historical Enrollment Data Student Enrollment Table By Grade 25-Year Historical ( ) Student Enrollment Chart By Grade 25-Year Historical ( ) Annual Growth In Student Enrollment 25-Year Historical ( ) Current Enrollment District Enrollment ( ) Change In District Enrollment From Prior Year ( to ) School Enrollment Distribution ( ) Grade Level Distribution ( ) Student Geographic Distribution ( ) Student Density ( ) Grade Level Distribution & Cohort Growth Since Kindergarten Enrollment Cohort Growth Kindergarten Through 12 th Grade Class of Diversity Of Enrollment ( ) Growth of Diverse Populations ( ) Diverse Populations By School ( ) Growth In Free or Reduced Lunch Population* ( ) Free or Reduced Lunch Population By School* ( ) Park Hill School District Mobility Data SUPPORTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA Platte County Live Birthrates & Kindergarten Enrollments Collecting Birthrate Data Birthrate & Kindergarten Class Size Data Household Data

6 New Households Within The School District 10 Year History School Age Children Within Park Hill School District Households FUTURE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Projection Methods Cohort Survival Method Household Projections Method Student Enrollment Projections Student Enrollment Projection Summary Table Student Enrollment Projection Summary Graph Building Need Maximum & Effective Capacities Square Footage Analysis Square Footage Analysis Table (By Building) Future District Growth Trends Estimated Population of the Park Hill School District (2013) Estimated Rate of Change in Population ( ) Percent Change in Number of Incoming Students ( ) Estimated Children Under the Age of 5 (2013) Estimated Change In Children Under the Age of 5 ( )

7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Demographic Profile is produced annually to assist school district leaders and planners in annual budgeting, review of district attendance boundaries, and long-range planning efforts. The following reflects some of the significant data points found within the Demographic Profile: Estimated 2013 population of the school district is 64,040 with the populations within the municipality of the city of Kansas City and the unincorporated portions of Platte County making up over 80% of the population. Of twelve suburban Kansas City, Missouri school districts... o Park Hill has realized the third largest percentage population increase (+2.9%) since 2010 (behind Platte County R-3, Liberty). o Park Hill ranks sixth in student enrollment (10,504) and in enrollment growth since 2009 (3.4%). o Park Hill ranks second in estimated 2013 household income ($88,480) (behind Liberty) and 2013 estimated median home value ($182,915) (behind Platte County R-3). o Park Hill ranks first in estimated 2013 college graduates or professional degrees within the district population (41%). Park Hill's student enrollment for is 10,504. This is a 0.5% increase from the prior year and the thirtieth (30) consecutive year of enrollment growth. Eight of thirteen grade levels in are at their highest enrollment ever (K, 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12). Total enrollment in elementary grades (K-5) and middle school grades (6-8) are at their historical highs Elementary School enrollments range from the 383 (Renner) to 513 (Tiffany Ridge). The enrollment difference between Park Hill High School (1,726) and Park Hill South (1,558) is 168. The ethnic diversity of student enrollment continues to increase with minority populations currently making up 28.9% of the total student enrollment (an all-time high). The socioeconomic make-up of student enrollment continues to change with 28.9% of students qualifying for free or reduced lunch through the National School Lunch Program. Although an alltime high, this is the smallest annual growth in this statistic in over a decade. The mobility of students is stable with nearly 11% of students being in the district less than one year, and 19% of students being within the district less than two years. This statistic excludes kindergarteners and first graders. Kindergarten class sizes have been the historical highs for four consecutive years with the current kindergarten class of 789 an all-time high. In 2013, 237 new households were constructed within the district, reflecting the second consecutive year in which the number of new homes has increase by more than 200. Enrollment projections made from mathematical models estimates student enrollment to continue to increase over the next decade, with total enrollment anticipated to be between 11,899 and 12,388 in

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9 INTRODUCTION ABOUT THE DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE The purpose of the Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District is to provide Park Hill School District patrons, business leaders, civic organizations and other interested persons detailed demographic and socioeconomic information about the Park Hill School District and Park Hill community. The demographic profile includes historical information, current trends, and future enrollment projections that assist district leaders in annual budgeting, review of district attendance boundaries, and long-range planning efforts. Enrollment data presented in this report was compiled from Park Hill School District core data and through historical figures maintained by the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education. Data used in this report comes from multiple sources, including: 2010 decennial Census compiled by the Missouri Census Data Center 2010 decennial Census compiled by the US Census Bureau Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services Platte County Assessor s Office Platte County Planning and Zoning Department Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI) SRC, LLC Demographics Now POPSTATS and AGS demographic data, provided by Decision Data Resources, Geographic Enterprises and Tactician Corp. National Center for Education Statistics Planning and GIS departments at the City of Parkville, City of Kansas City and Riverside NCSS statistical software Missouri Spatial Data Information Service For the purposes of this report, the Park Hill School District has partnered with Business Information Services, LLC of Blue Springs, Missouri. Business Information Services, LLC is a Missouri-registered Limited Liability Corporation, owned by Preston Smith. The firm has completed more than 100 in-depth demographic studies throughout the country for public school districts. This report is divided into four major parts: (1) Introduction (2) Student Enrollment, (3) Supporting Demographic Data, and (4) Future Enrollment Projections. 7

10 ABOUT THE PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT The Park Hill School District, formally organized in 1951 under the provisions of Missouri s School Reorganization Statute of 1948, encompasses 71 square miles located in the southern third of Platte County, located just north of downtown Kansas City, Missouri. Park Hill is a public school district, with pre kindergarten (pre-k) programs through grade 12. The district includes ten elementary schools, three middle schools (including a sixth grade center), two high schools, a day treatment school (Russell Jones Education Center), and a 40,000 square foot Early Childhood Education Center (Gerner Family Early Education Center). Other support facilities include a district Aquatic Center, Underground Support Services, and the District Office. Park Hill provides comprehensive educational services for students in pre-k through grade 12. Specifically, two district high schools provide comprehensive educational services for students in grades Three district middle schools (including a 6 th grade center) provide comprehensive educational services for students in grades 6-8. Ten district elementary schools provide comprehensive educational services for students in grades K-5. The Russell Jones Education Center provides educational services in a day treatment setting for K-12 students with special needs. Park Hill School District s (PHSD s) Gerner Family Early Education Center (GFEEC) provides fee-based educational services for pre-k students (ages 3-5), early childhood special education (ECSE) students, and English Language Learners (ELL), Head Start, and supports Parents as Teachers (PAT). The district also offers an array of community services including Adventure Club (Day Care), Community Education and a district Aquatic facility. DISTRICT GEOGRAPHY The school district, formally organized in 1951 under the provisions of Missouri s School Reorganization Statute of 1948, encompasses 71 square miles located in the southern third of Platte County, situated just north of downtown Kansas City, Missouri. The Missouri River forms the southern and western boundaries of the district and also delineates the state line between Missouri and Kansas. The northern boundary gerrymanders in stair-step fashion from Northwest 76th Street and the Clay County line to Northwest 120th Street, the northern most point of the district. The northern 8

11 boundary divides the Kansas City International Airport, with one of the three airport terminals lying within district boundaries, and the remaining portions of the airport lying within the Platte County R-3 School District, the neighboring district to the north. DISTRICT MUNICIPALITIES Predominantly rural-oriented in the past, the district has steadily changed to a more suburban type district, blending both residential and commercial growth. Approximately 43% of the school district lies within the city limits of Kansas City, Missouri. There are seven other incorporated communities: Riverside, Parkville, Houston Lake, Lake Waukomis, Weatherby Lake, Platte Woods, Northmoor, and the unincorporated communities of Waldron and Platte County. The 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census counts for each of these communities is listed in the table below. In addition, estimates of the 2012 population are aslo provided. Community 2000 Population 2010 Population Estimated 2013 Population % Growth Parkville 4,189 5,554 6, % Lake Waukomis % Kansas City (within Park Hill District only) 33,270 37,100 40, % Houston Lake % Northmoor % Riverside 2,979 2,937 3, % Platte Woods % Unincorporated Platte County (estimated) 9,899 13,132 12, % Weatherby Lake 1,873 1,723 1, % Park Hill School District 54,285 62,261 64, % * Source US Census and ESRI Demographics Data Estimated 2013 population analysis shows that a 17.9 percent population growth in the Park Hill School District since This is strong, and nearly twice the national population growth rate during the last decade. Over 82% of the school district's population resides in the city of Kansas City and the unincorporated portion of the school district. Homes that are presently being built in the area range from $150,000 to more than $1,000,000. DISTRICT MAPS The following pages include the following maps of the Park Hill School District: Map of Area School Districts. This map shows school districts that surround the Park Hill School District on both sides of the state line and the interstates. 9

12 Map of Park Hill School District Municipalities. This map shows the geography of the eight municipalities included within the Park Hill School District. Unincorporated sections of Platte County within the district boundaries are also included. Aerial Overview Map of Park Hill School District. This map shows the aerial geography of the municipalities included within the Park Hill School District. Unincorporated sections of Platte County within the district boundaries are also included. Zip Codes Within Park Hill School District Boundaries. This map overlays the US Postal Service Zip Codes within the Park Hill School District. Map of Park Hill School District Boundaries. This map shows the Park Hill School District school boundaries as of April, 2012 when the boundaries were last changed. 10

13 MAP OF AREA SCHOOL DISTRICTS 11

14 MAP OF PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT MUNICPALITIES 12

15 AERIAL OVERVIEW MAP OF PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT 13

16 ZIP CODES WITHIN PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT BOUNDARIES 14

17 MAP OF PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT BOUNDARIES 15

18 DEMOGRAPHIC COMPARISONS BENCHMARK SCHOOL DISTRICTS The Park Hill School District utilizes eleven other suburban Kansas City, Missouri school districts to benchmark statistics throughout the organization, including Academic Services (i.e. student achievement scores), Human Resources (i.e. employee compensation), and Business Services (i.e. tax rates). The following tables compare Park Hill to these benchmark districts in various demographic categories. This data is collected by the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and the U.S. Census Bureau. BENCHMARK POPULATION DATA This table provides values and relative ranks for various population data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green. School District Area Square Miles Total Population (2010) Est. Total Population (2013) % Population Growth Estimated Percent Population 17 years old or younger Blue Springs 53.9 (7) 76,331 (4) 76,727 (4) 0.5% (7) 26.0% (3) Center 11.6 (12) 24,971 (11) 25,117 (10) 0.6% (6) 21.0% (12) Fort Osage (1) 25,145 (10) 25,113 (11) -0.1% (9) 26.0% (3) Grandview 37.4 (9) 31,917 (9) 31,772 (9) -0.5% (11) 24.0% (6) Hickman Mills 29.1 (11) 47,092 (8) 46,852 (8) -0.5% (12) 27.0% (2) Independence 42.7 (8) 94,720 (2) 94,696 (2) 0.0% (8) 23.0% (10) Lee's Summit (2) 91,982 (3) 94,428 (3) 2.7% (4) 26.0% (3) Liberty 82.5 (5) 53,223 (7) 55,556 (7) 4.4% (2) 29.0% (1) North Kansas City 84.5 (4) 123,348 (1) 125,317 (1) 1.6% (5) 24.0% (6) Park Hill 71.1 (6) 62,261 (5) 64,040 (5) 2.9% (3) 24.0% (6) Platte County 98.9 (3) 22,548 (12) 23,724 (12) 5.2% (1) 24.0% (6) Raytown 32.1 (10) 58,838 (6) 58,687 (6) -0.3% (10) 22.0% (11) 16

19 BENCHMARK ENROLLMENT DATA The table below provides values and relative ranks for school enrollment data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green. School District School Enrollment School Enrollment % Enrollment Growth Census-- Percentage of School- Age Children Living in the District Who Attend District Schools 2010 Blue Springs 13,813 (3) 14,212 (3) 2.9% (8) 91.8% (1) Center 2,309 (12) 2,351 (12) 1.8% (10) 49.5% (12) Fort Osage 4,701 (9) 4,906 (9) 4.4% (5) 66.9% (4) Grandview 3,910 (10) 4,037 (10) 3.2% (7) 50.7% (10) Hickman Mills 6,445 (8) 6,266 (8) -2.8% (12) 50.4% (11) Independence 13,413 (4) 14,072 (4) 4.9% (4) 62.6% (7) Lee's Summit 17,287 (2) 17,615 (2) 1.9% (9) 67.1% (3) Liberty 10,379 (5) 11,557 (5) 11.3% (2) 65.7% (5) North Kansas City 18,288 (1) 19,199 (1) 5.0% (3) 62.0% (8) Park Hill 10,159 (6) 10,504 (6) 3.4% (6) 88.0% (2) Platte County 3,318 (11) 3,788 (11) 14.2% (1) 60.8% (9) Raytown 8,651 (7) 8,693 (7) 0.5% (11) 63.1% (6) BENCHMARK DEMOGRAPHIC DATA The following table provides values and relative ranks for household data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green. School District 2013 Est. Average Household Size Est Average Household Income Est Estimated College Graduate or Professional Degree Est Estimated Median Home Value Blue Springs 2.6 (4) $82,862 (4) 33.0% (6) $155,775 (5) Center 2.1 (12) $55,688 (10) 34.0% (5) $135,173 (6) Fort Osage 2.8 (1) $65,382 (7) 15.0% (12) $111,876 (9) Grandview 2.4 (7) $62,480 (8) 28.0% (8) $125,682 (8) Hickman Mills 2.5 (5) $49,329 (12) 19.0% (10) $94,504 (12) Independence 2.3 (11) $51,147 (11) 17.0% (11) $97,457 (11) Lee's Summit 2.6 (3) $87,700 (3) 41.0% (1) $173,876 (3) Liberty 2.7 (2) $89,980 (1) 41.0% (1) $173,608 (4) North Kansas City 2.4 (8) $67,416 (6) 30.0% (7) $131,451 (7) Park Hill 2.5 (6) $88,480 (2) 41.0% (1) $179,147 (2) Platte County 2.3 (10) $75,818 (5) 38.0% (4) $182,915 (1) Raytown 2.4 (9) $57,148 (9) 23.0% (9) $104,613 (10) 17

20 BENCHMARK SCHOOL FINANCE DATA The table below provides values and relative ranks for school finance data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green. School District Levy Adjusted Total Assessed Valuation as of December 31, Unrestricted Ending Fund Balance (Incidental + Teachers Funds) on June 30, 2012 % Funding from Local Sources (Excludes Bond & Debt Service Revenues) Current Expenditures Per Average Daily Attendance Blue Springs $ (8) $1,217,172,701 (4) 29.9% (2) 62.7% (6) $9,081 (11) Center $ (1) $380,833,950 (10) 25.9% (4) 76.5% (1) $13,663 (1) Fort Osage $ (10) $256,546,753 (12) 29.5% (3) 43.5% (11) $9,431 (6) Grandview $ (6) $418,761,659 (9) 22.4% (7) 61.7% (7) $11,161 (2) Hickman Mills $ (2) $365,846,712 (11) 22.0% (8) 41.6% (12) $10,218 (4) Independence $ (9) $925,946,809 (5) 20.8% (9) 45.1% (10) $9,281 (10) Lee's Summit $ (5) $1,632,904,530 (2) 35.4% (1) 66.0% (4) $9,314 (9) Liberty $ (4) $770,062,710 (6) 17.3% (12) 58.8% (8) $9,408 (7) North Kansas City $ (7) $1,871,506,546 (1) 20.7% (10) 67.5% (3) $9,929 (5) Park Hill $ (11) $1,466,777,925 (3) 23.3% (6) 75.7% (2) $10,685 (3) Platte County $ (12) $424,707,951 (8) 20.0% (11) 65.4% (5) $8,934 (12) Raytown $ (3) $607,304,457 (7) 23.9% (5) 54.7% (9) $9,342 (8) 18

21 STUDENT ENROLLMENT In this section of the Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District historical enrollment data is depicted in various tables and graphs. In addition, data on district housing and birthrates are shared in order to establish trends relevant to enrollment growth in future years. HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT DATA This section includes the following tables, charts, and graphs: Student Enrollment Table By Grade 25-Year Historical ( ). This table summarizes official enrollment in the district over the last twenty-five years. Student Enrollment Chart By Grade 25-Year Historical ( ). This graph represents enrollment and enrollment growth over the last twenty-five years. Annual Growth in Student Enrollment 25-Year Historical ( ). enrollment growth (number of students) over the last twenty-five years. This graph represents 19

22 STUDENT ENROLLMENT TABLE BY GRADE 25-YEAR HISTORICAL ( ) Year K Ungraded K- 5Total Middle School Total , , ,118 6, , , ,102 7, , , ,166 7, , , ,254 7, , , ,317 7, , , ,372 8, , , ,494 8, , , ,504 8, , , ,493 8, , , ,595 8, , , ,619 8, , , ,785 9, , , ,797 9, , , ,924 9, , , ,926 9, , , ,007 9, , , ,124 9, , , ,133 9, , , ,178 9, , , ,222 10, , , ,235 10, , , ,257 10, , , ,317 10, , , ,280 10, , , ,301 10,504 ** highlighted cells (orange) denote the largest historical enrollments for each grade level (K, 1, 2, etc.) and grade spans (Elementary, Middle, High School). High School Total Grand Total 20

23 STUDENT ENROLLMENT CHART BY GRADE 25-YEAR HISTORICAL ( ) 10,500 10,159 10,299 10,504 9,879 9,500 9,171 9,460 9,648 8,858 Student Enrollment 8,500 7,913 8,220 8,472 7,500 7,089 6,500 5, School Year 21

24 ANNUAL GROWTH IN STUDENT ENROLLMENT 25-YEAR HISTORICAL ( ) Student Enrollment Change from Prior Year School Years 22

25 CURRENT ENROLLMENT In this section of the Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District shows data collected on the state s official student count day and is reflected in various tables, charts and graphs. The Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education has established the annual official enrollment count as the number of students in grades K-12 enrolled on the last Wednesday in September of each year. A second enrollment count is taken in January of each year by all Missouri school districts but is not a part of this report. The student enrollment value should not be confused with the rate of pupil attendance or average daily attendance (ADA), which is the total hours of student attendance divided by the total hours school is in session. In addition, the state utilizes a third measure to calculate student population membership. Membership totals are used to differentiate full-time students from part-time. The membership of a student is reported as a full-time equivalency (FTE), such that a student enrolled the last Wednesday of September for 6 hours of a 6 hour day would be reported as a 1.00 FTE for September membership. If that same student was enrolled for 2 hours of a 6 hour day the last Wednesday of January, the January membership would be 0.33 FTE. For the purposes of this report and the projections made at the conclusion of the report, the September enrollment count has been utilized as the benchmark for comparison from year to year. Any exceptions to this are highlighted throughout the report. This section includes the following tables, charts, and graphs: District Enrollment ( ). This table summarizes enrollment by school and by grade level. Change in District Enrollment from Prior Year ( to ). This table summarizes where the changes in enrollment occurred (by school and grade level) over the last year. School Enrollment Distribution ( ). This graph summarizes enrollment by school. Grade Level Distribution ( ). This graph summarizes enrollment by grade level. Student Geographic Distribution ( ). This map plots all students from the school year on a district map. Student Density ( ). This shows the density of students enrolled from the school year on a district map. Grade Level Distribution & Cohort Growth Since Kindergarten Enrollment. This graph represents a key concept in projecting student enrollment cohort growth. This graph 23

26 shows current enrollment by grade level, and also includes the size of the same cohort when they were kindergarteners. As depicted in the graph, Park Hill School District classes generally increase in size as they pass from grade level to grade level. Cohort Growth Kindergarten through 12 th Grade Class of The graph shows the cohort change over the last 13 years of the current graduating class, beginning when they were kindergarteners. Diversity of Enrollment ( ). This pie chart presents the diversity of the student population. Growth of Diverse Populations ( ). This graph and corresponding data table shows the increase of diverse populations over the last ten years. Diverse Populations by School ( ). This graph illustrates the percentage of non-white students within each school. Growth in Free or Reduced Lunch Population ( ). Monitoring students who receive a free or reduced lunch is a common way for schools and districts to reflect the socioeconomic status of the students and families in the district. This graph shows the increases in the free or reduced population over the last ten years. For the purpose of this annual report and to be consistent with state reporting, the district has utilized the official January membership count to compare free or reduced values. Free or Reduced Lunch Population by School ( ). This graph illustrates the percentage of free or reduced students within each school. For the purposes of this annual report, the district has utilized the official January count to compare free or reduced values. 24

27 DISTRICT ENROLLMENT ( ) Elementary Schools Grade Chinn English Landing Graden Hawthorn Line Creek Prairie Point Renner Southeast Tiffany Ridge Union Chapel Russell Jones TOTAL K TOTAL ,725 Middle Schools High School Russell Park Hill Park Hill Russell Grade Plaza Congress Lakeview Jones TOTAL Grade High School South Jones TOTAL TOTAL , TOTAL 1,726 1, ,301 Russell Jones Education Center Grade Russell Jones K Total (included in the above numbers) District Total 10,504 Increase from Previous Year 56 (0.54%) 25

28 CHANGE IN DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FROM PRIOR YEAR ( TO ) Elementary Schools Grade Chinn English Landing Graden Hawthorn Line Creek Prairie Point Renner Southeast Tiffany Ridge Union Chapel Russell Jones TOTAL K TOTAL Middle Schools High School Day Park Hill Park Hill Day Grade Plaza Congress Lakeview School TOTAL Grade High School South School TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL Day School PARK HILL Total (included GRADE DAY SCHOOL District Total K-12-3 in the above numbers) 56 26

29 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DISTRIBUTION ( ) 1,800 1,726 1,600 1,558 1,400 1,200 Student Enrollment 1,

30 GRADE LEVEL DISTRIBUTION ( ) Student Enrollment Projected Kindergarteners in Demographic Profile * * 788* * 817* 849* 812 Class of 676 as Kindergarten in (over a 25% Growth) 864 * * K * denotes largest grade-level cohort in district history Grade Level 28

31 STUDENT GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION ( ) 29

32 STUDENT DENSITY ( ) 30

33 GRADE LEVEL DISTRIBUTION & COHORT GROWTH SINCE KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT Student Enrollment For example, Park Hill's Current 5th Grade Class of 820 began as a class of 727 as Kindergarteners in K Enrollment Class Size as Kindergarteners 31

34 COHORT GROWTH KINDERGARTEN THROUGH 12 TH GRADE CLASS OF Cohort Growth of Current 12th Grade Class (K) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Year/Grade (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) 32

35 DIVERSITY OF ENROLLMENT ( ) Native American 0.5% Pacific Islander 1.1% Asian 3.2% Multi Racial 4.4% Hispanic 9.4% African American 10.2% White 71.1% 33

36 GROWTH OF DIVERSE POPULATIONS ( ) CHART 1 GROWTH OF DIVERSE POPULATIONS 100.0% 90.0% Percentage of Enrollment by Ethnicity 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Multi Racial 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.2% 4.4% Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% Native American 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Asian 3.1% 3.6% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% Hispanic 4.8% 4.9% 5.5% 6.0% 6.1% 6.6% 8.6% 8.7% 9.0% 9.4% African American 8.7% 9.0% 9.6% 10.0% 10.7% 11.3% 10.5% 10.7% 10.4% 10.2% White 83.0% 82.0% 80.3% 79.2% 78.0% 76.9% 72.5% 71.7% 71.5% 71.1% 34

37 CHART 2 - GROWTH OF DIVERSE POPULATIONS 10,000 8,000 Student Enrollment 6,000 4,000 Multi Racial Pacific Islander Native American Asian Hispanic African American White 2, School Years

38 DIVERSE POPULATIONS BY SCHOOL ( ) 50.0% 45.0% 43.9% % of Enrollment in Minority Populations 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 38.0% 24.7% 18.0% 21.1% 36.1% 24.6% 37.1% 39.9% 16.0% District Average 28.9% 31.8% 28.7% 24.8% 34.2% 21.6% 27.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 36

39 GROWTH IN FREE OR REDUCED LUNCH POPULATION* ( ) 35.0% % of District Membership Qualifying for Free and Reduced Lunch 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 18.4% 18.3% 19.3% 20.8% 22.1% 23.8% 25.1% 27.2% 28.6% 28.9% 0.0% * Free & Reduced Lunch Counts are based on January Membership Counts 37

40 FREE OR REDUCED LUNCH POPULATION BY SCHOOL* ( ) 70.0% 65.9% 60.0% % of student s qualifying for free/reduced lunch 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 39.3% 34.1% 25.7% 20.6% 37.6% 27.0% 40.4% 48.9% 37.7% 16.5% District Average = 28.9% * 25.9% 27.8% 30.0% 27.7% 20.5% 10.0% 0.0% Chinn English Landing Graden Hawthorn Line Creek Prairie Point Renner Southeast * Free & Reduced Lunch Counts are based on January Membership Counts Tiffany Ridge Union Chapel Plaza Middle School Congress Middle School Lakeview Middle School Park Hill High School Park Hill South Russell Jones 38

41 PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT MOBILITY DATA One of the major challenges facing schools is student mobility. A student is considered mobile when they transfer schools. Unfortunately, mobility has been demonstrated to be associated with many negative outcomes, including low achievement, grade retention, and dropping out. Students who are in a school or district for a relatively short time do not have as great of an opportunity to benefit from consistent educational programming. Park Hill School District, like any district, is forced to deal with issues related to mobility. While the educational programming that students receive may not differ significantly when transferring from one building to the next within the district, the same cannot be assumed for transferring in from other districts. The following charts display student mobility rates for Park Hill School District, as defined by the percentage of students who are new to the district. One year mobility is the percentage of current students who were not in Park Hill last year. More specifically, these students were here on the September count day but not here on the September count day. Two year mobility is the percentage of current students who were not in the Park Hill School District two years ago, based on them not being in the district on the past two years count days. Kindergarten students are not included in the one year student mobility rates. Likewise, kindergarten and first grade students are not included in the two year student mobility calculation. This section of the Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District depicts seven graphs showing student mobility rates for Park Hill School District, as defined by the percentage of students who are new to the Park Hill School District. District Mobility ( ). This graph shows the number of students new to the district within the past year, and last two years. District Mobility By Grade Span ( ). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by grade span. District Mobility By Ethnicity ( ). ethnicity. This graph disaggregates the mobility data by District Mobility By Free or Reduced Lunch Status ( ). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by free or reduced lunch status. District Mobility By School ( ). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by school. Continuous Park Hill Enrollment Since Kindergarten ( ). This graph shows the number of students in each grade level that have been Park Hill School District students for their entire school careers. 10 Year Historical Mobility of Students. This graph shows the 1 and 2 year mobility rate over the last 10 years. 39

42 DISTRICT MOBILITY ( ) % of Students 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 11.0% 11.0% of current district students were not Park Hill students during the school year 19.3% 19.3 % of current Park Hill School District students were not district students during the school year 0.0% Students New Since Students New Since DISTRICT MOBILITY BY GRADE SPAN ( ) 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 13.2% of current district elementary students were not Park Hill students during the school year 15.5% of current district high school students were not Park Hill students during the school year 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 13.2% 23.0% 10.6% 19.7% 8.6% 15.5% 0.0% Elementary School Middle School High School Students New Since Students New Since

43 DISTRICT MOBILITY BY ETHNICITY ( ) 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 29.6% of all current district African-American students were not Park Hill students during the school year 14.2% 21.8% 18.9% 29.6% 9.2% of current white students were not Park Hill students during the school year 13.6% 25.5% 9.2% 16.3% 0.0% Asian African American Hispanic White Students New Since Students New Since DISTRICT MOBILITY BY FREE OR REDUCED LUNCH STATUS ( ) 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 17.3 % of all current district students who qualify for free or reduced lunch were not Park Hill students during the school year 30.3% 14.9% of all current district students who do not qualify for free or reduced lunch were not Park Hill students during the school year 20.0% 10.0% 17.3% 8.4% 14.9% 0.0% Free/Reduced Students New Since Regular 41

44 DISTRICT MOBILITY BY SCHOOL ( ) 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.1% 12.3% 9.3% 10.0% 14.4% 10.5% 14.5% 7.4% 11.5% 11.6% 17.7% 15.7% 14.0% 7.4% 0.0% Park Hill High School Park Hill South Plaza Lakeview Congress Chinn English Landing Graden Hawthorn Line Creek Prairie Point Renner Southeast Tiffany Ridge Union Chapel CONTINUOUS PARK HILL ENROLLMENT SINCE KINDERGARTEN ( ) Percentage of Students Continuously Enrolled in Park Hill Schools Since Kindergarten 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 87.7% 1st Graders 76.5% 2nd Graders 68.9% 3rd Graders 63.6% 62.4% 56.2% 4th Graders 5th Graders 6th Graders 53.6% 49.7% 46.1% 46.9% 45.9% 7th Graders 8th Graders 53.6 % of current 7th graders have been enrolled in Park Hill Schools continuously since Kindergarten 9th Graders 10th Graders 11th Graders 42.2% 12th Graders 42

45 10 YEAR HISTORICAL MOBILITY OF STUDENTS 25.0% Percentage of Students New to the District 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Students in Park Hill School District < 1 Year Students in Park Hill School District < 2 Years

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47 SUPPORTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA PLATTE COUNTY LIVE BIRTHRATES & KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENTS COLLECTING BIRTHRATE DATA Birthrate data is collected for Platte County by the Missouri Department of Health and is utilized in projecting future kindergarten class sizes. Although not all Platte County births ultimately attend Park Hill schools (four public school districts service families in Platte County), there has been a historical link between the live birthrate in the county, and the subsequent kindergarten enrollment. For example, 2007 yielded one the highest number of births that Platte County had ever seen (1092), and subsequently yielded Park Hill School District s largest kindergarten class during the school year (771). This cohort will continue to grow as they move through their educational careers in Park Hill a phenomenon known as cohort growth. The kindergarten class of is 789 students, and represents the single largest kindergarten class in school district history. Kindergarten class sizes have been the historical highs for four consecutive years beginning in In addition, the percentage of Platte County births compared to enrollment five years later continues to fall within the range of 65-75%, currently at a level of 72.5%. BIRTHRATE & KINDERGARTEN CLASS SIZE DATA The table below lists the Platte County birth data and corresponding kindergarten enrollment (5 years later). Platte County Live Births Kindergarten Year Park Hill Kindergarten Enrollment % of Platte County Live Births as Students in PHSD Kindergarten Class Birth Year Increase % % % % % % % % % % * 7 * projected value (Missouri Department of Health did not provide 2012 value in time for report) 45

48 HOUSEHOLD DATA New households within the Park Hill School District are calculated through review of monthly reports submitted to the district by the Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City, Platte County (Permit Reports), and the Kansas City Planning and Development Department. Households are classified as either single-family residences, or multi-family residences. Multi-family residences include duplexes, four-plexes and apartment complexes. Rental properties are not included within this calculation. As of , the Park Hill School District includes 29,915 households. This equates to approximately 0.35 students per household. Households have steadily increased over the last twenty years as more residential development has occurred. Since 1980, the district has seen an annual increase in new households at approximately 475 new households per year. In 2013, 237 new households were constructed, reflecting the second consecutive year in which the number of new homes has increase by more than 200. These increases in new home construction in the Park Hill School District is consistent with the metropolitan Kansas City area and show some recovery in the housing market that saw smaller fewer new homes in the last five years. The next page includes the graph: New Households within the School District 10 Year History. This graph shows the number of new homes constructed within the school district since the school year. The graph shows a significant decrease in new homes in the last half of the decade compared to the first half. 46

49 NEW HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN THE SCHOOL DISTRICT 10 YEAR HISTORY Increase in new homes within district boundaries School Year 47

50 SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN WITHIN PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT HOUSEHOLDS The number of students per household in the Park Hill School District has remained steady over the last decade. The table below shows data from the last ten years, with the number of households in the Park Hill School District in at 27,014. As of , each Park Hill household yields.351 students, or approximately 1 student per every 3 households. The number of students per household in the district has decreased slightly over the last 20 years from to students per household. School Year District Enrollment Households in PHSD Students Per Household ,498 27, ,648 27, ,765 28, ,879 28, ,106 29, ,159 29, ,199 29, ,299 29, ,448 29, ,504 29, Year Average Year Average

51 FUTURE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS One benefit to tracking district enrollment trends is the ability to utilize the trend data to project future enrollment. Predicting future enrollment is an important piece in many school processes: long-range planning, budgeting, staffing, and predicting future building and capital needs. The Park Hill School District has utilized two tools to predict future enrollment cohort growth and household construction patterns. These tools allow for three projection models (3-Year Cohort, 7-Year Cohort, Household) that create an anticipated range of enrollment for future years. PROJECTION METHODS COHORT SURVIVAL METHOD Two of the three methods of projecting student enrollment for future years involve the use of cohort survival. Cohort survival is a measure of the rate at which students grouped by grade level pass into the next grade level a year later. For example, in Park Hill School District s class of 2nd graders was 769. A year later, this class became a third grade class of 779. Using this example, the rate of cohort survival (1.3% increase) is calculated in the following way: % 769 The 1.3% increase is a measure of the likelihood our second grade class will become larger or smaller as the class passes into the third grade the following year. To minimize the effects of an exceptional year, three and seven-year cohorts are calculated by averaging the cohort survival for three and seven-years respectively. The tables below show how three-year and seven-year cohort survival averages are calculated: 3-YEAR COHORT PROJECTION METHOD To determine projections based upon the three-year cohort, the three-year cohort survival rate is calculated for each grade level, and these rates are added to the previous year s enrollment. For example, projections for the 1st grade class of are based upon the kindergarten enrollment (a known value of 789) and the survival rate of the last three years in which a kindergarten class Kindergarten to First Grade Year Students in Kindergarten Students in 1st Grade 1 Year Later % Increase % % % 3 Year Average Increase 2.54% has become 1st graders (+2.54%). Therefore, the projection for the st grade class using this method is 809 students. 49

52 Projections for subsequent years are calculated using the same three-year cohort survival rates for each grade level. 7-YEAR COHORT PROJECTION METHOD To determine projections based upon the seven-year cohort, the seven-year cohort survival rate is calculated for each grade level, and these rates are added to the previous year s enrollment. For example, projections for the th grade class is based upon the th grade enrollment (a known value of 812) and the survival rate of the last seven years in which an 8th grade class becomes the 9th grade class (6.11%). Therefore, the projection for the th grade class using this method is 862 students. Eighth Grade to Ninth Grade Year Students in Eighth Grade Students in Ninth Grade 1 Year Later % Increase % % % % % % % 7 Year Average Increase 6.11% Projections for subsequent years are calculated using the same seven-year cohort survival rates for each grade level. COHORT INDICES The chart below presents the indices used to project growth from one grade level to the next, utilizing 3- year and 7-year cohort figures. These are current values utilizing data from to enrollments. Growth From... 3-YEAR 7-YEAR Kindergarten to 1st 2.54% 3.54% 1st to 2nd 1.66% 1.87% 2nd to 3rd 2.18% 2.94% 3rd to 4th 1.96% 1.90% 4th to 5th 0.77% 1.43% 5th to 6th 1.91% 1.68% 6th to 7th 5.01% 3.67% 7th to 8th -0.36% 0.58% 8th to 9th 5.72% 6.11% 9th to 10th -1.30% -2.01% 10th to 11th -3.00% -2.44% 11th to 12th -0.49% -0.58% 50

53 PREDICTING BIRTHRATES One challenge posed in using cohort survival as a projection method is estimating the size of the kindergarten class in future years. Since cohort survival cannot be calculated for the kindergarten class (no class comes before it in previous years), Platte County birthrates are used to estimate the kindergarten class size each year. Over the last three years, an average of 71.2% of births in Platte County (known as live births ) have attended kindergarten in Park Hill School District schools five years later. For example, in 2008 Platte County reported 1088 live births. Five years later, in school year , 789 kindergarten students were enrolled in Park Hill School District. Using known values for Platte County birthrates in years 2009 through 2012, kindergarten enrollment for school years through can be estimated based upon known birthrates. To calculate this, a regression with live birth as the dependent variable and change per year as the independent variable is utilized to produce a growth curve model that takes into account the non-linear change pattern. Kindergarten enrollment estimations past the school year cannot be calculated based upon known births (these children have not yet been born). Values for these kindergarten enrollments are based upon a predicted number of children born in Platte County. To predict this, the same growth curve explained above is used and a regression using kindergarten enrollment as the dependent variable and live births and current year as the independent variable is made. Projections made from 3 years of birth data are input into the 3-year cohort projection model, and projections made from 7 years of birth data are included in the 7-year cohort projection model. PROJECTIONS MADE FROM 3-YEARS OF DATA Year of Kindergarten Enrollment Projected Kindergarten Class Size Change From Previous Years % of Platte County Live Births as Park Hill Kindergarten Students Live Year Births * % * % * % % % % % % % % % % % * actual values 51

54 PROJECTIONS MADE FROM 7-YEARS OF DATA Year of Kindergarten Enrollment Projected Kindergarten Class Size Change From Previous Years % of Platte County Live Births as Park Hill Kindergarten Students Live Year Births * % * % * % * % * % * % * % % % % % % % % % % % * actual values Using these projection models, the kindergarten class size for is projected to be between 753 (7-Year Projection) and 777 (3-Year Projection) students. 52