Floods and flood. Elin Langsholt

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1 Floods and flood forecasting Hydrologisk modellering i flomvarslingenli Elin Langsholt Seksjon for hydrologisk modellering

2 Potential flood risk Norway s total area: km km rivers and streams lakes covering km 2 Large climatic contrasts Flood season: any time 2

3 When is the flood season? Jan. Okt. Apr. Juli 3

4 East Norway, spring 1995 Åsta og Glomma ved Rena 4

5 Northern Norway, May-2010: Intensive snow melting because of highh temperature Flood in a river bed filled with snow = slush slide Floods made much damage to buildings and infrastructure

6 Vårflommen 2010: 300 Øvrevatn in Troms Highest recorded stream flow ever er ( )!

7 When is the flood season? Jan. Okt. Apr. Juli 7

8 Sogn og Fjordane, July

9 Flood warnings summer juni: 7. juni 22.juni 27.juni 21. juli 22. juli 26.juli Lavlandet Sør-Norge Fjellvassdrag i S-Norge Nord-Norge Norge Nordland og Troms Vestlandet Sør- og Østlandet Vestlandet t Finnmark 16.aug. 25. aug. 2.sept. Agder og Østlandet Vestlandet og V-Agder Aust-Agder Agder og Østlandet 12. sept. V-Agder og Vestlandet 14. sept. Trøndelag og M&R 16. sept: Sør-Østlandet 27. sept: Trøndelag og Nordland d 30. sept: Sogn og F. (breelver) Norges vassdrags- og energidirektorat 4. okt: Trøndelag og Nordland Rogaland Møre og Romsdal

10 Reservoir storage in Norway, week

11 The rainy summer Rainfall, deviation from normal Juni Juli August September 170 % 135 % 130 % 115 %

12 Reservoir storage, week nov. 2011

13 Precipitation energy week TWh TWh 43 TWh nov. 2011

14 When is the flood season? Jan. Okt. Apr. Juli 14

15 Flood in Trøndelag January-February nov. 2011

16 Q > Q 50 Q 50 > Q > Q 5 Q 5 > Q > Q m Situasjonen onsdag 1. februar nov. 2011

17 observed maximum runoff: 218 m3/s observed maximum runoff: 427 m3/s Observerte maksimale flomverdier, spesifikk avrenning observed maximum runoff: 3570 m3/s mm/d døgn West coast (ca 250 km2) Tributary to Otta (ca 250 km2) Glomma, downstream (ca 4000 k 2)

18

19 24-7 (emergency phone) 10 hydrologists Rotating scheeme 2 hydrologists on duty One week duty periods Public information Telephone Internet, no Teletext 19

20 Why flood forecasting? flomsommeren-kostet-over-enmilliard-kroner html

21 Why flood forecasting? Short Sh t tterm: Provide P id and d distribute flood warnings, g, so that effort can be made to lower potential damage. Long term: Inform about, and make initiatives, when situations that increase the risk for flooding occur. occur 21

22 22

23 Flood warning Large flood: runoff larger than the 50-year flood Flood: runoff between the 5-year and the 50- year flood Message: large runoff according to season risk of ice-drift local flooding because og heavy rain Situation reports Local authorities consider risk of damage river discharge

24 background information state Met. met forecast observations and forecast PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE EVAPORATION SNOW STORAGE diss- emination further action RAIN SNOW MELT DYNAMIC PART SOIL STORAGE vannføring (m3/s) relax until next time step flood warning RUNOFF FROM THE MODEL hydrological forecast YES FLOOD? NO 24

25 What is a flood? High water level A runoff that makes damage Inundation of areas that are normally not inundated Media: focus on urban floods, local flooding along roads etc Statisstical definition: e.g mean flood = mean of the yearly peak flood over many years Bergen , kilde BT. 25

26 HBV-modellen FORDAMPNING NEDBØR TEMPERATUR SNØMAGASINET REGN SNØSMELTING ROTSONEN vannføring (m3/s) INFILTRASJON AVRENNINGSDEL AVLØP FRA MODELLEN 26

27 Distribution of flood warnings NVE Police district receipt Mutual warning County emergency division The municipalities i i Media Hydro- power companies Road & railway authorities 27

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