Loudoun County 1 st Quarter Housing Trends

Transcription

1 Loudoun County 1 st Quarter Housing Trends Presentation to Dulles Area Association of Realtors Corey Hart, Sr. Product Manager RealEstate Business Intelligence April 24, 2015

2 A quick peek at March trends Market Activity and Inventory Growth Supply and Demand moving toward balance Days-on-Market Increases Sales-to-List Ratios Declines Trends by ZIP Codes

3 A Peek at March Monthly Indicators Market Activity

4 A Peek at March Monthly Indicators Pricing

5 A Peek at March Monthly Indicators DOM and Sales-to-List-Price Ratios

6 Market Activity

7 SP-to-OLP Ratio in Q1 Q1 Closed Sales ( ) 5-Yr Q1 Avg: 1,070 (+5%) The 1,122 sales are 5% above the 5-yr Q1 Average though 9% below the 5-yr high of Q1-2013

8 Sales Activity Loudoun County: Y-o-Y % Change in Sales ( ) The 1,122 Q1 Sales represented a 17% jump from Q1-2014

9 SP-to-OLP Ratio in Q1 Q1 New Listings ( ) 5-Yr Q1 Avg: 2,179 (+12%) Most new listings added in Q1 since 2008

10 Listing Activity Loudoun County: Y-o-Y % Change in New Listings ( ) Double-digit % increases in six of last eight quarters

11 Listing and Purchase Swings Impact on Inventory Loudoun County: Y-o-Y % Change in New Pendings/Listings/Actives Contracts beat Listings Listing Activity Greatly Exceeds Contract Activity

12 New Pendings vs. New Listings 0.40 New Pendings per New Listing 1 st Quarter Listing vs. Purchase Activity 0.84 New Pendings per New Listing 0.68 New Pendings per New Listing

13 Longer view of Inventory Loudoun County: Active Inventory by Month ( ) March inventory down 46% from 2006 peak March inventory up 62% from 2013 low

14 Listing Activity Loudoun County: Y-o-Y % Change in Active Listings ( ) 21 months of Inventory Gains The 1,840 Active Listings to end Q1 are 36% more than this time last year.

15 Supply & Demand

16 Return to Balance Q1 Months Supply of Inventory ( ) Buyer s Balanced Seller s Market dynamics are shifting from a strong seller s market to more balance

17 Supply & Demand by Segment Months Supply of Inventory by Housing Segment ( ) Townhouse segment: Strongest seller s market. Condo segment: Big shift from buyer s to seller s Detached segment: Balanced

18 Supply & Demand by Segment Months Supply of Inventory by Home Size Q *Active listings in parentheses Smaller homes have greatest demand relative to supply

19 DOM and Supply by List Price Range

20 Days on Market

21 Days-on-Market Median Days-on-Market by Month ( ) Mar 2015: 35 Days 10-Yr Mar Avg: 42 Days 5-Yr Mar Avg: 26 Days

22 Days-on-Market Y-o-Y Median DOM Change by Month ( ) 15 months with DOM increases

23 Days-on-Market March Median Days-on-Market for All Homes ( ) Highest March DOM since 2009

24 Days-on-Market March Median DOM by Housing Segment ( ) March Median DOM for All Types: 35 days

25 Sales-to-Original List Price Ratio

26 DOM and % of original list price received When DOM is rising, the average % of asking price received usually falls Q Med DOM: +58 days Avg SP to OLP: -4.8 points Q Med DOM: -38 days Avg SP to OLP: +4.2 points Q Median DOM: +23 days Avg SP to OLP Ratio: -1.1 points

27 SP-to-OLP Ratio per DOM bucket Avg Sales-to-Orig-List-Price Ratio by Time on Market (Q1-2015) DOM Average SP to OLP Ratio Homes selling in <2 months receive above average % of OLP

28 SP-to-OLP Ratio in Q1 Q1 Average Sales-to-Original-List-Price Ratio ( ) Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Avg SP-to-OLP Ratio down 1.1 points. 5-year Q1 Average: 96.5%

29 SP-to-OLP Ratio by Months Avg SP to OLP Ratio by Month ( ) 5-Yr Mar Avg: Yr Mar Avg: 95.9 Mar 2015: % SP-to-OLP Ratio in March is down from 98.0% in March 2014

30 SP-to-OLP Ratio by Months Y-o-Y SP-to-OLP Change by Month ( ) 12 months with YoY declines

31 Pricing Trends

32 Median Sales Price Y-o-Y % Change in Median Sales Price by Quarter ( ) 23 consecutive quarters with y-o-y appreciation The $417k median sales price in Q1 was only 0.5% up from the $415k level in Q1-2014

33 Median Sales Price Y-o-Y % Change in Median Sales Price vs. MRIS-wide Summer 2009 Winter 2012 More severe correction in Loudoun The DC Metro area (including Loudoun) bottomed out earlier than most markets

34 Longer view of Loudoun Pricing Median Sales Price by Month ( ) $514k March prices 18.3% below 2006 peak $420k $325k March prices 29.2% above 2009 low

35 Pricing Trends All Home Types 35%

36 Pricing Trends Detached Homes 32%

37 Pricing Trends Attached Townhomes (SFH) 38%

38 Pricing Trends Condos 86%

39 Trends by ZIP Code

40 1 st Quarter Prices by ZIP Code 7 of 11 ZIP codes saw lower prices The Sterling area remains most affordable The ZIP code in Ashburn and Aldie s have had the highest median $ of late

41 Months Supply of Inventory MSI up in all eleven ZIP codes (with 21+ sales in Q1) Aldie is a strange case. Tons of inventory, but

42 Days on Market the lowest DOM is in Aldie. DOM up in 10 of 11 ZIP codes.

43 Avg Sales-to-Original-List-Price Ratio SP-to-OLP Ratio is down in 9 of 11 ZIP codes.

44 A few more nuggets

45 Low stock of affordable homes compared to the region

46 but lower stock of super-expensive homes as well

47 Luxury Home Sales in Q Share of sales that are 3,000+ SqFt Loudoun County has a higher proportion of 3,000+ SqFt Sales Even so, the proportion of $800k+ sales is smaller Share of sales that are $800k+

48 Obligatory Product Plug

49 All stats pulled from SmartCharts Pro

50 All stats pulled from SmartCharts Pro Visit to sign up for a 14-day test drive

51 Questions? Contact me at